SDNW3 epilogue coordination thread

[Thanas]

Wow, just noticed it has been a long time since I've written anything Prussian-related....

Anyway, it occurred to me that we should probably coordinate on SDNW3 epilogues so that there may be no inconsistencies in storytelling for SDNW4.

Here is how I (in broad strokes) envisioned the end of the character arc for Johannes Sänger and the German Empire. This was already shared and coordinated with Steve regarding Cascadia.

The cornerstone of future German foreign policy will be:
- adhering to the treaty of Vienna
- continuing the alliance with France, Spain and Tuscany
- trying to achieve detente with the other blocks of power
- not engaging in any more military adventures.

That is about where we stand now. My epilogue post is half-written and will be sent to Steve soon, but I wanted to have this out in the open so that none of us writes stuff like "in 1933 France and Germany fought the fifth world war" and I write "Peace in Europe had reigned for ten years".

Steve and I thought it would be nice to close out SDNW3 with the same way it started, a meeting between Garret and Sänger. This time, two old men meeting shortly before Sänger's tenure as Reichskanzler ends in 1954, and this time with a German ship visiting Seattle, instead of the start where we had a Cascadian ship visit Wilhelmshaven and they met as young men. Along the way Sänger would have tried to visit as many dignitaries as possible, so if you want to have a meeting with him or so please PM me so we can coordinate.


However, we should also coordinate on technical prowess. Here is what I would suggest:

- the tank has become the most important tool in land warfare
- carriers have taken over the principal role in warfare instead of battleships, but not before some nations built nuclear-powered battleships. (Germany for example would have a lobbying battle which resulted in the construction of two such white elephants, adored by the populace but labelled wilhelm's follies in naval circles).
- it is 1954 now and the age of liners is slowly coming to an end due to even more air traffic. However, due to the hyperindustrialized world, ship travel will still be important for a long time.
- somewhere along in 1935 or so the trend to green industry started.

other than that, typical technical progression analogous to our universe.

[Lonestar]

BBGNs in Grand Dominion nomenclature means "has one big gun turret, but really acts as giant air defense ship".

EDIT: Infact, hmm, I'll try to find the concept art, but there's a painting floating around of either the a Montana or one of the uncompleted Iowas as a BBG.

[Thanas]

BBGNs in Grand Dominion nomenclature means "has one big gun turret, but really acts as giant air defense ship".

Ah. So it is actually a sensible ship instead of Wilhelm's follies.

[Lonestar]

Infact, hmm, I'll try to find the concept art, but there's a painting floating around of either the a Montana or one of the uncompleted Iowas as a BBG. with the back half being Terrier and Tartar missiles.

[Lonestar]

Alright fine,

-By the mid '30s a major war kicks off between Shepistan and the GD, which also ends rather abruptly in a Dominion victory. Shep has actually used the term "Vichy Shepistan" to describe what happens after this hypothetical war. Point is that the Indian Subcontinent more or less is at peace between nation-states by the start of the 1940s, which allows a further release of funding for naval expenditures.

-At some point in the mid '40s during a period of heightened tensions between Germany and the Grand Dominion a GDN cruiser is sunk. The cause is never determined(it occurs in very deep water), but conspiracy theories are abound that it was a German U-boat(or a secret Shepistani one). War is avoided however.

-By the late 40s the Grand Dominion has sufficient technical acumen in the nuclear field that nuclear power is practical for naval vessels. By the early '50s guided missile technology has matured enough that large "BBGNs" are ordered. By the time the Grand Dominion is likely in possession of nuclear weapons, and longer ranged turbojet heavy bombers.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Nuclear battleships in 1954?

[Lonestar]

Nuclear battleships in 1954?

Like I said, BBGNs in Grand Dominion nomenclature are large air defense ships with a large caliber forward turret intended for NGFS.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Nuclear battleships in 1954?

Like I said, BBGNs in Grand Dominion nomenclature are large air defense ships with a large caliber forward turret intended for NGFS.

So essentially, nuclear shells?

[Thanas]

-By the late 40s the Grand Dominion has sufficient technical acumen in the nuclear field that nuclear power is practical for naval vessels. By the early '50s guided missile technology has matured enough that large "BBGNs" are ordered. By the time the Grand Dominion is likely in possession of nuclear weapons, and longer ranged turbojet heavy bombers.

That would actually work very well with the general detente idea, sorta like MAD ensuring no nation will actually go to war.

FWITW, when writing my SDNW4 prologue I went with the general idea that the nations would stay more or less unchanged over the next centuries and the sort of "neutral rivalry" would extend into space. I think I make reference to some dominion space colonies in the prologue or something (obviously it is 3200 in SDNW3 world by then).

[Lonestar]

So essentially, nuclear shells?

Not necessarily. This isn't the TBOverse.

[Steve]

National rivalries might have been directed toward a race for space colonies as the technology permitted, and eventually multi-generational cryo-ships and FTL drives allowing a race for extrasolar ones as well. If their development mirrors that of the SDNW4 Earth and Nova Terra, Heim drives will be available by 2200, and hyperdrives within a century of that (I explicitly linked the two - Heim drive utilization and refinement will inevitably lead to the discovery of hyperspace and the principles on using it).

I was thinking that Mexico and Cascadia would probably inevitably have to do something permanent about California, it's simply too divided socially and politically to survive by any other means but in the LaGrange point of the two larger powers as well as the USA, and if that ever becomes unbalanced the dissolution of California and its absorption by other states is inevitable (and likely to provoke heightened tensions, potentially even war). And that unbalancing would likely happen, since the Mexican-cultural population was primarily in Baja and partially Arizona, which won't get the same population as the rest of the nation.

I also expect tensions when the Grand Dominion starts developing bombers that can threaten the Cascadian oil ports of Sumatra, not to mention when the fleet base at Darwin comes under GDAF range. The Cascadian aeronautical industry will gain a boon from being tapped to keep the RCAF up to the challenge. Consider the fact that Cooksland (Queensland) will have a significant Hindu expatriate population through the 20th Century and you have the recipe for continued Dominion-Cascadian tensions.

The interesting thing, really, is if there's no ideological tinge to whatever nuclear standoffs happen. Nor is the Grand Dominion perhaps in the best position to beat the "anti-imperialist" drums.

[Siege]

* Since the Blue Sultanate of Sudan was already coming into the orbit of the Aegean Axis by game's end I would imagine they joined the Axis at some point in the 1920s.

* During the war between Shepistan / the Grand Dominion, either Egypt itself or the Axis as a whole would've probably conquered or tried to conquer their colonies in Yemen / Oman, unifying the Arabian peninsula.

* Between the members of the Axis it controls the oil fields of modern day Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, (parts of) Libya and (maybe) Azerbaijan. I expect that by the 1950s it will begin to dawn on the leaders of the Axis just how significant their control of cheap oil may prove to be in the near future.

* Barring the Byzantines who had quite a strong navy going the Axis was always a territorial power first and foremost. The Sultanate in particular invested heavily in tanks and aircraft, so I figure we'd end up with a kind of Soviet-ish setup for the armed forces: a weak fleet-in-being, backed by a massive airforce and a tidal wave of mechanized troops.

* Other than the issue of Southern Arabia I think the Axis would be content to rule the territories it has. There's no particular need for further expansion, and there really isn't anywhere to go either. I suppose it's possible they'd invest the oil wealth in some kind of megaproject like irrigating the Sahara desert with nuclear pumping/desalinization stations...

[Steve]

Might have been problematic had the Axis made a genuine effort at all southern Arabia, since the likely Dominion retaliation would've killed world trade for months (that is, fighting around the Bab al-Mandeb) and with it Egypt's main means of making money. Whether the Dominion would be in any position to prevent an opportunistic Egyptian invasion of Shepistani Oman is a different matter.

Actually, I do ponder.... how well off is India for oil? Such an issue might have been the first inkling in the world that the Aegean powers were going to be wielding disproportionate influence due to oil wealth, since the Dominion's wartime thirst for crude would have been well-known, and the three closest sources I know of are Byzantine Persia, Egyptian Arabia, and Cascadian Sumatra; all states that the Dominion is known to be ambivalent toward at best.

[Steve]

....okay, is this thread going to get silly where we start arguing about how wars would go for an STGOD that died 10 months ago?

[Thanas]

....okay, is this thread going to get silly where we start arguing about how wars would go for an STGOD that died 10 months ago?

I hope not and I do not believe so. We are all reasonable people here.

* Since the Blue Sultanate of Sudan was already coming into the orbit of the Aegean Axis by game's end I would imagine they joined the Axis at some point in the 1920s.

* During the war between Shepistan / the Grand Dominion, either Egypt itself or the Axis as a whole would've probably conquered or tried to conquer their colonies in Yemen / Oman, unifying the Arabian peninsula.

* Between the members of the Axis it controls the oil fields of modern day Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, (parts of) Libya and (maybe) Azerbaijan. I expect that by the 1950s it will begin to dawn on the leaders of the Axis just how significant their control of cheap oil may prove to be in the near future.

* Barring the Byzantines who had quite a strong navy going the Axis was always a territorial power first and foremost. The Sultanate in particular invested heavily in tanks and aircraft, so I figure we'd end up with a kind of Soviet-ish setup for the armed forces: a weak fleet-in-being, backed by a massive airforce and a tidal wave of mechanized troops.

* Other than the issue of Southern Arabia I think the Axis would be content to rule the territories it has. There's no particular need for further expansion, and there really isn't anywhere to go either. I suppose it's possible they'd invest the oil wealth in some kind of megaproject like irrigating the Sahara desert with nuclear pumping/desalinization stations...

Sudan joining the Axis would be a logical conclusion IMO.

As to the following, the only points I have qualms about - (note, not opposed to right from the start, but having qualms about) is point II. Simply because if the Axis is guaranteeing British independence, then the European Alliance (well, the European powers at least. The rest would most likely stay neutral as is their right) would throw its support behind the Dominion to stop the Axis from increasing their hold on the European oil supply. Maybe some sort of deal could be struck in that regard.

To explain myself with regard to the German stance: Granted, the EA already can - to some extent - count on Russian oil as well as oil from its South American members, but at this point I would estimate that at least a third, if not half of the oil comes from the Aegean Axis already. Now, it is not as if this oil supply can stop at the drop of a hat due to the most likely respective damage to the economies, but that does not mean the EA would just sit by and watch the Dominion lose its oil. Not that Germany loves the Dominion, it is just the principle of the thing. Sorta like "if we are stuck on our current possessions, so are you."

Germany would most likely not go to war over this though, assuming some sort of arrangement can be made.

[Siege]

The occupation (as they see it) of Arabian soil by the Crusader States has been a thorn in the side of the Sultanate since, well, whenever it happened. Arrangements could be made, but unless those arrangements are something along the lines of full independence for those colonies (which would no doubt be followed by an inexorable pull toward the Sultanate anyway), the Sultan would simply shrug off your concerns, launch the invasion and dare you to do something about it.

All things being equal I would expect a large part of the world to breathe a sigh of relief the minute Fortress William is bombed to rubble so that ships passing through Suez don't have to parade under the guns of the Dominion any longer.

[Steve]

The Dominion-Cascadian relationship is going to be interesting. On the one hand, the Cascadian-German Bund undoubtedly excites the fears of the Teutonophobic Dominion, and the fact that Cooksland (Queensland in Cascadian Australia) has become the center for a vibrant and active Hindu expatriate community would undoubtedly provide impetus on both sides for suspicion. On the other hand, given their proximity, one imagines the Grand Dominion is one of the main destinations for oil and natural resources exported from Sumatra and Australia (aside from German and Tuscan colonies in the South Pacific, New Zealand, and Byzantine Java, all of which would likely not consume too much, and would have their own natural resources to supplement such), so a great deal of money flows into the economies of the nearby Cascadian territories that originates in the Dominion, while Sumatra's oil ensures the Dominion has sufficient fuel and Australian molybdenum and other rare minerals are in use by Dominion steel mills (IIRC Lonestar even touched on the need for such in an old SDNW3 post).

[Steve]

Hrm, Matt, do you need the Sheppo-Dominion conflict to be in the 1930s? If it can be held off to something like 1938-1944 in length, it allows room for an idea I'm getting for a violent period in Asian-Pacific relations, up to and including a general Pacific War.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The Byzantine Empire would always fulfill the Aegean Axis' need for a naval arm, while relying on its neighbours for armies. The Empire would and always would maintain a well equipped professional army though relatively small in comparison to its neighbours' standing armies.

[Thanas]

The occupation (as they see it) of Arabian soil by the Crusader States has been a thorn in the side of the Sultanate since, well, whenever it happened. Arrangements could be made, but unless those arrangements are something along the lines of full independence for those colonies (which would no doubt be followed by an inexorable pull toward the Sultanate anyway), the Sultan would simply shrug off your concerns, launch the invasion and dare you to do something about it.

All things being equal I would expect a large part of the world to breathe a sigh of relief the minute Fortress William is bombed to rubble so that ships passing through Suez don't have to parade under the guns of the Dominion any longer.

Ah, so the world will be happy to trade one state who can potentially shut down suez and owns part of the oil supply with one state who can shut down suez for good and owns much of the oil supply? This is precisely the same thing that caused the Aegean Axis to threaten all out war when France and Germany tried to take out Britain, and now the EA is going to just sit back and let the Aegean Axis do a comparative thing without trying to increase their relative influence? TBH, the EA would probably use the preoccupation of the Axis to deal with Britain, preferrably pulling them into their sphere of influence via trade pressure.

Maybe a sort of resurrection of the Gentlemen's agreement Schenk once proposed to Sänger would be the key here.

[Lonestar]

Hrm, Matt, do you need the Sheppo-Dominion conflict to be in the 1930s? If it can be held off to something like 1938-1944 in length, it allows room for an idea I'm getting for a violent period in Asian-Pacific relations, up to and including a general Pacific War.

On phone so I'll be brief. War is in early-mid 30s with the Dominion deploying nerve agents over major shepistan cities first week of war. War would not have lasted long enough for moslems to mobilize and seize possessions in Arabia.

[Lonestar]

Thanas can verify this wasn't made up just now...mentioned in coordination PM I sent him.

[Thanas]

Yes, I'll vouch for that. Lonestar mentioned the resounding Dominion victory yesterday.

[Siege]

Ah, so the world will be happy to trade one state who can potentially shut down suez and owns part of the oil supply with one state who can shut down suez for good and owns much of the oil supply?

We can already shut down Suez for good, and we already own much of the oil supply. After the war the number of states that can close down Suez will have decreased by one.

This is precisely the same thing that caused the Aegean Axis to threaten all out war when France and Germany tried to take out Britain, and now the EA is going to just sit back and let the Aegean Axis do a comparative thing without trying to increase their relative influence?

You mean it's precisely the same thing, except for how it's completely different? We're not taking out an entire nation, we're annexing two colonies. It's been a while since the game but I distinctly recall Germany and its allies annexing an entire nation (the Union of the Low Countries) as well as its colonial holdings, and we didn't raise a ruckus over that. The issue with Britain was over how you people were using trumped up nonsense to make outrageous demands, whereas this is a long standing territorial dispute.

Anyway, it basically doesn't really matter what the Europeans think of this. It's a simple matter of brinkmanship: the Sultanate doesn't think you'll launch a World War over two lost Crusader colonies, so you can muster up all the outrage in the world but that's not going to stop the Sultan (or, as is more likely in the 1930s, the Sultana) from settling a score that's bothered the House of ad-Din for generations.

War would not have lasted long enough for moslems to mobilize and seize possessions in Arabia.

Regardless of the circumstances the aftermath of the war would I suspect leave the Dominion busy dealing with cleaning up the mess in India. Even if it didn't, having one unified Crusader colony in southern Arabia is utterly intolerable so it'll be war either way.

[Thanas]

I'll leave you and Lonestar to work it out then. You are right that the EA is not going to go to war over two colonies, but it will use that window of opportunity to deal with its own problems (britain).