Does McCain already have the Election won?

Gaidin · Post by **Gaidin** » 2008-09-12 12:46pm

I'll reserve judgement on whether Palin ruined anything depending on how long it takes everybody to learn what they want about her and focus on the actual presidential candidate's instead. The fact that we knew nothing about her before she was picked means she was going to be hyped for a while, as opposed to Biden, who already had a reputation and record on a national level.

Justforfun000 · Post by **Justforfun000** » 2008-09-12 12:54pm

Palin is the main reason. That goddamn son-of-a-bitch McCain pulled off a masterstroke by picking that women as his running mate. She isn't even remotely perfect though and her views and policy beliefs SHOULD be enough to do her in, but they are smartly keeping her fairly queit. If they would just let her speak enough I think she'd hang herself.

This article is a good example of the people she is unfortunately swiping from Obama:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 740955.ece

"She's one of us": Palin wins over Obama women

Tim Reid in Mount Clemens
Jessica Goral had pretty much made up her mind two weeks ago: she was going to vote for Barack Obama. Then John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate.

“She empowers a lot of women,” says Mrs Goral, a mother of two in Macomb County - a national bellwether in the battleground state of Michigan and an area rich in white, working class swing voters who will play a major role in deciding November’s election.

“I like that she’s a brand new mother, and that she has the courage to stand behind her pregnant daughter. She relates to working women. For all of us who have children at home but have to go to work every day – she has given us a sense that we can still do it and can still be an excellent mum.

“Sarah Palin is a role model. She’s made me more likely to vote Republican.”

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If Mr Obama should be in any doubt how gravely the Alaska governor’s vice-presidential nomination has imperiled his White House ambitions, then a day spent in Macomb County will make this clear: white women who voted for John Kerry in 2004 are suddenly deserting him on masse.

This is Mount Clemens, in the heart of Macomb County, where the pollster Stan Greenberg first identified the phenomenon of the “Reagan Democrats” – the working class, socially conservative, traditionally Democratic whites who deserted the party for Ronald Reagan in 1980. It is fair to say that this critical swing group now has a new name: Palin Democrats.

The Times spoke to dozens of women here – perhaps the key demographic in this election - in an area which is 93 per cent white, has one of the highest unemployment and home repossession rates in the country, and will play a major role in determining who wins Michigan in November – a crucial swing state that no Republican has won since 1988 but where Mr Obama is particularly vulnerable this year. Nearly all said they were still undecided. Yet the disturbing fact for Mr Obama was how many said they had been leaning towards him – until Mrs Palin entered the race. It lends new credence to a poll last week showing white women fleeing from Mr Obama, and over to Mr McCain, since Mrs Palin’s extraordinary arrival on the national scene.

Katherine Herman, 45, is a lifelong Democrat. She has never voted for a Republican. Until now. “I have a friend who’s a Democrat, and like me, it’s Sarah Palin that’s caused her to lean in favour of McCain. My friend is a hockey mum like her and she thinks that’s pretty cool. Palin is tenacious. She’s sure of herself and would make good decisions for all Americans.”

Stephanie Parker, 23 - a single mother puffing on a Marlboro menthol cigarette in Mount Clemens’s Main Street – voted for Mr Kerry and had been drawn to Mr Obama. “Palin’s made a big difference. I think she’ll do us great. She’d be awesome. What she stands for is fantastic.” What does she stand for? “I couldn’t tell really. But I love her.”

Jennifer Zvara, 22 – another cigarette smoking single mother who voted for John Kerry – said: “I’m undecided but leaning more towards McCain because of Palin. It’s a women thing. She’s just a very powerful lady. She’s one of us. This race is about the running mates – it’s not about Obama anymore.”

Mr Obama’s aides have argued passionately that Mrs Palin’s conservatism – and her opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest – will alienate white women. Yet all here said while they were concerned about those views, they were willing to overlook them.

In recent presidential races, political pollsters have strived to name the pre-eminent voter swing group they believe will decide the election. White women are always considered pivotal in a close election. In 1996, it was “soccer mums” that Bill Clinton targeted so assiduously. In 2004, it was “security mums” that helped President Bush win re-election. This year, the group most closely watched by pollsters has been named the “Wal-Mart moms” – the white everywoman, juggling work and children, who wants a Democrat in the White House but is not yet sold on Mr Obama. In Mrs Palin, they have suddenly found a soulmate on a presidential ticket.

Tammy Pore, 31, leaving Wal-Mart with one of her two children, said she had decided to vote for Mr Obama. She backed Mr Kerry four years ago. Now, she says she is “extremely undecided” – but is leaning toward Mr McCain. “I think Sarah Palin is a great choice. And there are some of us who have certain worries about Obama’s faith. I wouldn’t say he’s not a Christian – but maybe he just has a different belief.”

Another young mother, who did not want to be named, simply said: “I’m a Republican. But I would have voted for Obama if he’s picked Hillary. We really want a woman in the White House.”

Debbie Perfilly, 49, an estate agent and mother-of-two, said: “I’m really undecided. I’m flip-flopping. I’m going back and forth. But Palin, yes, she’s made a difference. She’s young, female and strong.”

Last month, before Mrs Palin was picked by Mr McCain, Mr Greenberg returned to Macomb County. He conducted six focus groups.

“Barack Obama has yet to close the deal with many white, working-class voters who normally vote Democratic,” Mr Greenberg concluded. Macomb’s Reagan Democrats, he added, are “refusing to dismiss their worst fears - that he does not love America or even might harbor a secret agenda.”

Mrs Palin is giving them all the more reason to reject Mr Obama.

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2008-09-12 01:17pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:I don't get it, how could we start slumping so quickly, and because of a trailer trash cunt like Palin? Since you're the optimist on this campaign, RedImperator, what do you think remains to be seen and what Obama should do?

She energized the fundies who really didn't like McCain. I don't think it is any more complicated than that. All the asshats that were going to stay home or perhaps slink to the polls and hold their nose and vote McCain, are now holding up campaign signs for Palin/McCain.

Tribun · Post by **Tribun** » 2008-09-12 01:19pm

I noticed that McCain essentially hasn't said anything new. The only thing keeping him afloat is keeping Palin in the news.
Is this how it will go, him showing off Palin for two fucking months?

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-09-12 01:20pm

It's the "vote for someone like me" demographic. The fact is that blacks make up only 13% of the population of the country. Obama's only real chance was to appeal to voters on the issues and on his abilities, not by using the "vote for someone like me" tactic. McCain is shit on issues and abilities, but he has the "vote for someone like me" demographic going for him in spades.

Crossroads Inc. · Post by **Crossroads Inc.** » 2008-09-12 01:25pm

Knife wrote:
Illuminatus Primus wrote:I don't get it, how could we start slumping so quickly, and because of a trailer trash cunt like Palin? Since you're the optimist on this campaign, RedImperator, what do you think remains to be seen and what Obama should do?
She energized the fundies who really didn't like McCain. I don't think it is any more complicated than that. All the asshats that were going to stay home or perhaps slink to the polls and hold their nose and vote McCain, are now holding up campaign signs for Palin/McCain.

This is the primary reason it looks like Obama might loose the election... Before Palin a large group of usually Conservative voters was goign to just sithome.. Now they are firmly behind McCain. The influx of support means that esssential on Election night, it wil be anbother 49% to 51% victory.

And thats the thing that really, reall sticks in my craw... That after 8years of Bush and GOP rule, Obama isn't a shoe in, no, he might not even win... After 8years the asshats who put Bush in office are falling all over themselves to get another 8years with mcCain

TithonusSyndrome · Post by **TithonusSyndrome** » 2008-09-12 01:27pm

Yeah, it'd sure be real nice and all if Clinton came out and denounced McCain's VP pick for what it is, cheap political pandering intended to vulture her support base, and discouraged her voters from taking the bait.

It'd be some real pot-kettle-black material coming from her, of course, but if it improves Obama's chances, I can't say I'd care.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-09-12 01:31pm

Soccer moms have always been highly susceptible to Republican political techniques, whether it was Fear of the Black Man, Fear of Terrorism, or in this case, demographic narcicissm. It's odd that so many conservatives love to blast soccer moms on Internet forums, because they've always been a key target demographic for conservative political campaigns.

Justforfun000 · Post by **Justforfun000** » 2008-09-12 01:32pm

I seriously wondered if Obama had made a mistake by not voting in Hillary as his VP choice. I haev assumed he reason he did not was that his major message of "change" would still look a little incongruous with the choice of someone who was essentially in the White House already. At least that's how many would look at her.

However would that have been a bad thing? The "experience" issue would certainly have been a moot point because he could easily claim to draw on her experience, AND Bill Clinton's experience through his wife.

Also he would have kept the women voters who were voting for another women primarily..What do you guys think..Should he have picked Hillary?

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-09-12 01:34pm

Justforfun000 wrote:I seriously wondered if Obama had made a mistake by not voting in Hillary as his VP choice. I haev assumed he reason he did not was that his major message of "change" would still look a little incongruous with the choice of someone who was essentially in the White House already. At least that's how many would look at her.

However would that have been a bad thing? The "experience" issue would certainly have been a moot point because he could easily claim to draw on her experience, AND Bill Clinton's experience through his wife.

Also he would have kept the women voters who were voting for another women primarily..What do you guys think..Should he have picked Hillary?

If he loses to the Stupid Cunt vote, he should have picked Hillary. If he doesn't, then it was much smarter to pick Biden, because he will do his job instead of trying to hog the spotlight and angle for more power, the way Hillary inevitably would.

It's sad that the VP's ability to actually do the job well is pretty much irrelevant to the wisdom of picking him.

On the upside, Canada will probably do fine if McCain gets elected. His policies mostly fuck over you people and the Middle East, not us.

Justforfun000 · Post by **Justforfun000** » 2008-09-12 01:48pm

Darth Wong Worte:

On the upside, Canada will probably do fine if McCain gets elected. His policies mostly fuck over you people and the Middle East, not us.

LOL! Well that's an optimistic way for us Canucks to look at this I guess.

Seriously though, I will be crying as hard as my fellow American Democrats if McCain does get in. I dearly hope the Media Machine in the States has favourable karma to blow towards Obama. It's all about the press when it comes down to it.

Pablo Sanchez · Post by **Pablo Sanchez** » 2008-09-12 01:50pm

Darth Wong wrote:On the upside, Canada will probably do fine if McCain gets elected. His policies mostly fuck over you people and the Middle East, not us.

Well, not in a worst case economic scenario. He might totally bungle the economy, which is not hard to imagine given how rough things are, plus the fact that neither he nor Palin nor really anybody in his campaign seems to know anything or even give a shit about the economy. It's within the realm of possibility to see him running the ship of state aground so hard that it shakes markets worldwide.

Lusankya · Post by **Lusankya** » 2008-09-12 01:55pm

Darth Wong wrote: On the upside, Canada will probably do fine if McCain gets elected. His policies mostly fuck over you people and the Middle East, not us.

Ha! If McCain gets elected, I'll just hope that it hastens the rise of China. That's good for us, because then they'll buy more coal, wheat, rice, oats, sheep, cows and metals from us. Maybe it will even encourage us to become "super best friends forever" with them before Rudd gets voted out of office. China's probably a more stable ally than the US in the long run anyway.

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2008-09-12 02:05pm

Pablo Sanchez wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:On the upside, Canada will probably do fine if McCain gets elected. His policies mostly fuck over you people and the Middle East, not us.
Well, not in a worst case economic scenario. He might totally bungle the economy, which is not hard to imagine given how rough things are, plus the fact that neither he nor Palin nor really anybody in his campaign seems to know anything or even give a shit about the economy. It's within the realm of possibility to see him running the ship of state aground so hard that it shakes markets worldwide.

With a Gimp/Barbie maladministration, you can count on it. And even after that, millions of Americans will still not comprehend just why it's not a good idea to elect the doctrinaire and the stupid to high office.

Gerald Tarrant · Post by **Gerald Tarrant** » 2008-09-12 02:39pm

Justforfun000 wrote:Palin is the main reason. That goddamn son-of-a-bitch McCain pulled off a masterstroke by picking that women as his running mate. She isn't even remotely perfect though and her views and policy beliefs SHOULD be enough to do her in, but they are smartly keeping her fairly queit[sic]. If they would just let her speak enough I think she'd hang herself.

You're over-reacting. Take a look at the RCP election chart.

Link I'd print it, but the school computer I'm using doesn't have a printscreen button anywhere. A cursory look at the chart will show you the convention bounce. McCain's numbers haven't come down yet. I have 3 explanations

First Explanation, the convention bounce won't end for a few days yet. Obama's bump started on 8/22 and reached roughly pre-bounce numbers somewhere between 9/07 and 9/11 (apologies to our European readers who use a sensible dating convention.) That's 16-20 days before the polling reaches its more normal level. McCain's bounce started around the convention start, either 9/01 or 9/02. So using Senator Obama's bounce as a yardstick you've got until the 17th at the earliest to see signs of the bounces reversing itself.

An alternate explanation, the Republicans have "Mormentum" and people are flocking to their campaign lemming-like (sorry for mixed metaphors, I don't actually know the verb for Lemming herd behavior). The R's got an advantage by moving last with their convention; they steal the news spotlight. They will keep a bit of an advantage until the Dem's can get something to swipe it back: the First Presidential debate, a stunt in the House or the Senate, etc. If this is the case then Senator Obama's decision to forgo additional debates with Senator McCain looks foolish in hindsight.

My final explanation. Some of the investigation of Palin is non-policy related. Rather than seeing scandal many Americans see an ordinary person with ordinary problems. So the personal scandal mongering that many agents of the press seem to be engaging in is causing the same sort of revulsion as an average person would have over a papperazi. Some support for this is based on the fact that Obama is polling roughly at the level he was pre-Convention (8/23 or so). And McCain is polling higher than he was @ 8/23. This suggests that some undecided's have migrated to Palin as a backlash over some of the muckraking.

So back to Justforfun###, all of these things can be countered.

The first explanation can be countered by waiting. Nothing else would need to be done for the numbers to return to normal.

The second explanation could be countered by action in Congress. The Democrats control both houses, they need to show the American people why that's a good thing, pass a worthwhile bill and have President Bush pass or veto it. Either way Dem's are seen to be doing something. Stage some big foreign policy debate in the Senate, it's partly a debating society, if Senator Obama gets some good face time with an alternate idea to some of President Bush's foreign policy it will be to the good.

Countering the third explanation is more tricky but still doable. Senator Obama has had a similar experience when running against Jack Ryan for the open Senate seat from Illinois. Jack's messy private scandal spilled into all the political news. Senator Obama tried to plead for civility, didn't work, Ryan withdrew and Alan Keyes replaced him, with a poor showing. A strong statement by Senator Obama condemning the muck and moving directly onto policy issues is probably the best bet here. Make it stronger by having Hillary simultaneously condemn scandal mongering and differentiate her and the Democrat's brand of female empowerment from Palin and the Republicans. Fire any high profile aids that run their mouths off. Continue to engage on the issues.

Seriously, the Republicans are the ones with a poor economic showing, and and an unpopular war. Given those fundamentals, PeeWee Herman could win just by highliting the policy differences. Senator Webb did something similar with a response to one of President Bush's State of the Union addresses. There's no reason the Democrats can't do that again. The D's just need to get off their duffs and engage in a policy discussion.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2008-09-12 02:48pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:I don't get it, how could we start slumping so quickly, and because of a trailer trash cunt like Palin? Since you're the optimist on this campaign, RedImperator, what do you think remains to be seen and what Obama should do?

People need to take a deep breath and calm down. With or without Palin, McCain was going to get a bounce out of the Republican National Convention, and it was going to last longer than Obama's because the RNC started four days after the DNC. That's what we're in right now: the McCain bounce. Obama had an eight point lead thanks to his bounce; McCain's bounce managed to just barely cancel it out.

Now, that's not to say Palin isn't having an effect. It's just that her largest effect has been on white, conservative men, men who were not going to vote Obama anyway. Furthermore, the Palin effect has been strongest in the South, where Obama was going to win very few, if any electoral votes, Virginia and Florida aside (both states, incidentally, are still in play). Palin puts North Carolina and Alaska out of reach, but as I explained in my last big post, those states were just gravy anyway. If Obama won big enough to carry North Carolina, he'd have Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Colorado, too, enough for a 300+ EV landslide. She has gained among women, according to the latest polls, but 1) these are the more conservative women who were more likely to vote McCain, and 2) Palin's political views, especially on reproductive rights, are not generally known yet (McCain's aren't either, for that matter).

At any rate, national polls don't matter. The majority of McCain's national poll gains have been in red states where Obama had little to no chance of winning anyway. Now, McCain has made recent gains in swing states, too. Electoral-vote.com (the site I trust the most) shows McCain with exactly 270 EVs at the moment. Now, I want everyone to breathe into a paper bag for a few minutes until they calm down, because I'm going to explain why this is actually good news. Here we are, at the height of the McCain bounce, with everyone going wild about Sarah Barracuda, after months of smear ads from the Republicans, and John McCain, if the election were held today, would still lose if a single state flips. Any state, even South Dakota. McCain goes over the top thanks to razor-thin margins in Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and New Mexico--and when I say razor-thin, I mean one or two points. A two point swing in New Mexico, a state Obama has been winning all year, and the Democrats take back the White House. This is close to the very best case scenario McCain could possibly hope for. There are only two other states on the map--New Hampshire and Colorado--that McCain could pick off, and they're worth a total of 13. Ohio alone cancels out McCain's entire margin of victory, with room to spare, if it flips.

In short: everybody relax. Have a drink, if that's your thing, enjoy the drip-drip-drip of Sarah Palin scandals, and wait until the debates, which I've come to believe will really decide the election. If Obama is behind by a significant margin after them, then I'll panic. Obama is an inexperienced black Senator running against probably the most popular center-right politician in a country with a center-right electorate (center-right by American standards, of course), a week after the Republican National Convention. Unless McCain got caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, Obama wasn't going to be doing much better than a statistical tie at this point.

spikenigma · Post by **spikenigma** » 2008-09-12 02:53pm

whoever wins, you (the US) will get the President and policies it deserves

as a foreigner, from what I've seen, when the republicans first started pandering to the South/Midwest pretending to care about their issues (no matter how trivial), the "liberals" were happily living in their cities yakking it up at the uneducated south, and the chickens have come home to roost and paid back in kind

now the republicans have a solid voting block which doesn't care if their candidate openly lies or if the country goes down the tubes because of their policies

I think the lesson to other nations watching this is not to disregard (or percieve to disregard) a segment of your population over a long period of time, because this can and will happen down the line

I also think it's funny (if not disheartening) that if/when Obama gets in, the very people who are thankful in one breath that their relatives have been saved because of affordible healthcare will decry his presidency and accomplishments in the next

irishmick79 · Post by **irishmick79** » 2008-09-12 02:53pm

Good points, Tarrant.

I tend to agree with your first two points, and I would also argue that the republicans are enjoying a Palin bounce because she is such a complete unknown. People are curious, people are interested, and that probably sustains some of the Republican numbers because the focus is on them. There's drama surrounding Palin (eagerly inflamed by the media) between the investigations and just trying to figure out who the fuck she is, and I think that draws people in.

What I'm hoping is that once people see her in action during the debates and once they see her on the campaign trail, they'll be scared off. We really haven't seen her in action beyond the convention at all, and I hope that once she's outside of a protected environment she'll slip and display just how crazy she actually is.

TithonusSyndrome · Post by **TithonusSyndrome** » 2008-09-12 03:16pm

Darth Wong wrote:Soccer moms have always been highly susceptible to Republican political techniques, whether it was Fear of the Black Man, Fear of Terrorism, or in this case, demographic narcicissm. It's odd that so many conservatives love to blast soccer moms on Internet forums, because they've always been a key target demographic for conservative political campaigns.

Not really. Since when have conservatives looked on all but an exalted few of their demographics as swine to be courted for the vote and then shat upon?

Justforfun000 · Post by **Justforfun000** » 2008-09-12 03:53pm

Well I feel a bit better after Gerald Tarrant and Red Imperator's posts.

I said it before and I should have listened to my own advice. Wait and see what happens as it goes along because it's still a couple of months away and that's a LIFETIME in politics when you have the media coverage that comes along with a Presidential election.

Obama really IS the best overall candidate and he's exactly what that country needs, and the democrats in that country are going to be so nervous this time around that if they are stupid enough to consider not voting, this talk about it being "close" with McCain should be more then enough to get their ass in gear and not be complacent.

Justforfun000 · Post by **Justforfun000** » 2008-09-12 03:56pm

By the way RI, that's a GREAT site.

Now, McCain has made recent gains in swing states, too. Electoral-vote.com (the site I trust the most) shows McCain with exactly 270 EVs at the moment.

Glad you mentioned it. I've got it bookmarked now.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2008-09-12 04:15pm

Justforfun000 wrote:By the way RI, that's a GREAT site.

Now, McCain has made recent gains in swing states, too. Electoral-vote.com (the site I trust the most) shows McCain with exactly 270 EVs at the moment.
Glad you mentioned it. I've got it bookmarked now.

If you dig around, you can find the explanation of the algorithm he uses. It's a lot better than just watching the polls bounce around because it compensates for the statistical fluttering that's inevitable in polling. And I like his "barely Democrat/Republican" category better than Pollster.com's "toss-up" category.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-09-12 06:31pm

What the Democrats need right now is some candidates' debates, and for lots of people to actually watch them. Unfortunately, a lot of people will be very impressed by candidates who lie outright and mindlessly repeat talking points, which is what I expect McCain and Palin to do. But a lot of people will be looking for something more intelligent than that.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2008-09-12 06:37pm

Darth Wong wrote:What the Democrats need right now is some candidates' debates, and for lots of people to actually watch them. Unfortunately, a lot of people will be very impressed by candidates who lie outright and mindlessly repeat talking points, which is what I expect McCain and Palin to do. But a lot of people will be looking for something more intelligent than that.

I think this election is going to come down to the debates. If Palin's performance with Charlie Gibson last night was any indication, Biden is going to make her look like a total idiot, and he'll be a perfect gentleman the whole time doing it. McCain is better and debates aren't Obama's best format, but Obama has almost two dozen under his belt from this year. This is where the long primary helps him, because he had a ton of practice sparring with Hillary Clinton, who's no slouch herself. My dearest hope is that McCain has some kind of volcanic meltdown on national television, but I'll settle for a few clear wins by Obama, with maybe a "There you go again" zinger.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-09-12 06:49pm

Obama needs to hammer McCain on the fact that rich banker fatcats get bailed out by the government when they screw up, while McCain, Palin, and their party all vehemently oppose any such kind of protection for ordinary citizens. Like it or not, politics is heavily influenced by "us vs them" thinking, and Obama needs to remind voters that regardless of who they might think McCain or Palin are, we know who they are for.

That, of course, is a reference to one of my favourite lines from one of my favourite movies (Gladiator), where Senator Gracchus says "I may not be a man of the people, but I do try to be a man for the people."