Has McCain actually already LOST?(Yes he has)

[CmdrWilkens]

From here I will quote the portion that is really relevant:

Most people top in the McCain campaign now believe New Mexico and Iowa are gone, that Barack Obama will win New Mexico and Iowa. They are now off the dream list of the McCain campaign. More interestingly, most top people inside the McCain campaign think Colorado is gone.

So they are now finishing with a very risky strategy. Win Florida. Win Nevada ... And here is the biggest risk of all -- yes they have to win North Carolina, yes they have to win Ohio, yes they have to win Virginia, trailing or dead-even in all those states right now. But they are betting Wolf on coming back and taking the state of Pennsylvania. It has become the critical state now in the McCain electoral scenario. And they are down 10, 12, and even 14 points in some polls there. But they say as Colorado, Iowa and other states drift away, they think they have to take a big state. 21 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Wolf, watch that state over the next few weeks.

I won't even get in too deep to the utter insanity of thinkg that CO and NM are gone when they are polling noticeable but single digit leads while PA has a dozaen polls (including a freaking PA only tracking poll) which has shown a consistent double digit lead for Obama in that race.

If we start with the 04 map, give CO, IA, and NM to Obama then turn PA to a tossup the math works out as 265(R) and 252(D).

Here is the problem: Flip NV and VA but give McCain PA and its 270-268 Obama
Flip NV and NC its 272-264 Obama
Flip MO and NV and its also 270-268 Obama
Flip IN and NV same deal
Flip either OH or FL and its Obama
Flip ND or MT and NC and its 270-268 Obama

Again this strategy means that McCain has to play perfect defense in OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, IN, and NV (maybe ND too) PLUS play perfect offense in Pennsylvania. I'm betting that he fails to keep either FL or OH (not sure which) and losses both NC and VA in the process of pressinghis offense and spreading his defense so thin. This is essentially pulling the goalie in the final 2 minutes of the game hoping for overtime. Its beyond risky because it means a minimal campaign from Obama nets him all the states which he needed for a fundamentally superior electoral position while only going after the state where he has a better chance of playing defense (between strong surrogates in the Clintons and Rendell plus the ability to try and draw huge turnout from Philly)

[RedImperator]

I cannot begin to describe how retarded I think McCain's move is. Pennsylvania's lost; McCain couldn't steal the state at this point, let alone win it. So he can't win Pennsylvania, he's conceded all the other Kerry states, and he's conceding Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. Well, that's 272 electoral votes he's conceded.

This move is so stupid, in fact, that my prediction is they'll change their minds and not actually pull out of Colorado and New Mexico. I also predict, since they're stupid, that they'll stay in Iowa, even though that state is as lost as Pennsylvania.

[RedImperator]

Hey Tribun, CNN is reporting the gap between Obama and McCain is closing; is it time to panic yet?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/20/cnn.poll/


I'm really curious to see what effect Powell's endorsement of Obama has on the polls and, ultimately, the election.

OH MY GOD, IT'S A STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT MCCAIN UPTICK! SOMEBODY CALL THE CANADIAN CONSULATE! WE GOTTA GET THE FUCK OUTTA HERE!

[The Spartan]

Well, it didn't work for Hillary. So it's bound to work for McCain, right?

Jesus, his campaign stinks of desperation.

So I'm not the only one amused by the Republican nominee resorting to stealing a used up tactic from Hillary?

[Crossroads Inc.]

So the latest Fox News Electoral Map has Obama dropping BELOW McCain's Electoral Vote!
189 McCain
183 Obama

Currently they list the following states as "TossUps"

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Pennsylvanian
Oregon
New Mexico

Can someone say deluded?

[RedImperator]

So the latest Fox News Electoral Map has Obama dropping BELOW McCain's Electoral Vote!
189 McCain
183 Obama

Currently they list the following states as "TossUps"

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Pennsylvanian
Oregon
New Mexico

Can someone say deluded?

No, they're not deluded. "Deluded" gives them too much credit. They're just plain lying.

[Duckie]

Ironic considering just today Real Clear Politics upgraded Minnesota from a Lean Obama to a Solid Obama. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Oregon were already there. So that's what, 1 battleground leaning Obama (NM), 6 that are solidly Obama? I'll take those odds.

[Aratech]

So the latest Fox News Electoral Map has Obama dropping BELOW McCain's Electoral Vote!
189 McCain
183 Obama

Currently they list the following states as "TossUps"

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Pennsylvanian
Oregon
New Mexico

Can someone say deluded?

No, they're not deluded. "Deluded" gives them too much credit. They're just plain lying.

But we can still point our fingers and laugh at them, right?

[Big Phil]

Hey Tribun, CNN is reporting the gap between Obama and McCain is closing; is it time to panic yet?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/20/cnn.poll/


I'm really curious to see what effect Powell's endorsement of Obama has on the polls and, ultimately, the election.

OH MY GOD, IT'S A STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT MCCAIN UPTICK! SOMEBODY CALL THE CANADIAN CONSULATE! WE GOTTA GET THE FUCK OUTTA HERE!

Red, I'm really, really scared now; please hold me!

[SirNitram]

OH MY GOD

52-38 Obama! HE WILL WIN WITH 375 EC VOTES!

Continue ad absurdium.

[Kodiak]

So I just posted a link to the Pew survey above to a friend on chat, and here's the conversation that follows (he's SUPER right-wing). Note, this was in online chat so there's little punctuation.

angrytoaster: this a site run by ACORN? give me FOX NEWS links
me: it's a Pew poll they're like gallup. they're non-partisan, non-advocacy

angrytoaster: uh that's too massive a gap. I just heard yesterday that these guys are in a tie. So this means I cannot trust anyone because it appears that no one is qualified to make such claims....or they are out right liars. it is very troubling

me: or you can check the non-partisan groups i.e. Pew and Gallup and then see for yourself
angrytoaster: no. they appear to be making claims that are not true. that's my point
me: or they are true and you've been misinformed up to this point. Who told you they're tied?
angrytoaster: dude...who is really non partisan? that's an oxymoron
...
angrytoaster: yeah I cannot recall exactly but I think it was Orielly and some FOX news footage
me: people who are paid to collect data and post data. There are non partisan groups. If you think FOX news is non-partisan, that's your 1st mistake right there
angrytoaster: uh...did I actually say that? they are pretty fair and balanced
me: you eluded that Fox news was where you got your "facts" and that the Pew polls are "claims"
angrytoaster: but I never said non-partisan
me: if there were a news network that was as left wing as Fox news is right-wing, people would riot all media is biased, one way or the other
angrytoaster: being non-partisan doesn't guarantee non-bias. Dude that's called CNN
me: data has no bias, we engineers know that. So, by your admission Fox news is as biased as CNN?
angrytoaster: uh dude...ever hear of doctoring data or miss calculation?
me: so we can assume that all news is biased and all data is faulty?
angrytoaster: or data error
or data loss
or bad polling
or or or
know what I mean
me: so then to answer my question above....?
we can't trust anyone?
angrytoaster: right now I am assuming that I do not know who to trust, it's frustrating. which is my point

So to sum up:

1. If it contradicts Fox News, it's false
2. Fox News is "fair and balanced"
3. Polls can never be trusted
4. Networks can't be trusted

I think this is, sadly, a pretty common response amongst many people in America

[Erik von Nein]

Apparently not enough people, if those polls are anything to go by.

[Aratech]

Apparently not enough people, if those polls are anything to go by.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

[CmdrWilkens]

Quick observations:


1) I think we have firmly enough pointed out that a single poll is a useless starting point for anything.

2) I think we have further pointed out that any poll analysis needs baseline, needs lean, needs model (Likely/registered/partyID/sample size/etc) and needs context of other polls.

Therefore, can we please stop picking on Tribun or otherwise making overly dramatic pronunciations from a few polling results. I mean I know it was fun but I think the point is made and just maybe we could go back to catalouging the myriad ways in which McCain's campaign is imploding.

[Duckie]

If the ground game were a sports game, McCain would be booed off the field by now.

Now, I'm at college so of course it's slightly more liberal than average, but I'm also in Florida, which is a moderate Republican lean.

What I've seen is that the College Democrats and Students for Change organisations have 4 times the volunteers, working triple the hours. They had a Get out the Vote effort that registered at least a third, if not half, of the campus in 2 weeks, roving about with voter registrations signing people up. Now for early voting they have constant cars, vans, etc. going back and forth from the polling stations from the morning until the afternoon at minimum, possibly later, carrying half a dozen people or so to vote each. They seem to shuttle people there and the ones who have voted back every 10-20 minutes.

Meanwhile they're setting up posters, stickers, inviting people to events.

McCain's camp hasn't done anything. I see them almost every day (not every day though, unlike the Obama supporters) put up a tent in front of the center of the school (the heart of where everybody goes to go anywhere else on campus, including food court area) and sit in it, but nobody comes to talk to them, whereas Obama's tent has people wandering over all the time. They don't go out to engage people. They seem kinda depressed really.

I saw the Conservative student organisation, who are affilliated I guess, put on a Terrorism Awareness Rally (Islamic Hate Rally, presumably). One poster, that is. It said "12,084 Terrorist Attacks Since 9/11", which is a shock to me since there's only been 2,500 days since 9/11 so that's like 5 attacks per day. I haven't personally seen a single one.

Anyhow, the bottom line: The ground game of Obama is a well-oiled machine, registering thousands if not tens of thousands students, and I expect them to deliver high hundreds, low thousands of voters for early voting if not more.

The McCain supporters just seem to hang out for a few hours a day near a tent with posters and then hang up and go home.

[Darth Wong]

Anyhow, the bottom line: The ground game of Obama is a well-oiled machine, registering thousands if not tens of thousands students, and I expect them to deliver high hundreds, low thousands of voters for early voting if not more.

The McCain supporters just seem to hang out for a few hours a day near a tent with posters and then hang up and go home.

The McCain/Palin campaign has done pretty much everything in their power to alienate university students, with their incessant bleating about "small town values" and "real Americans" and "Wasilla Main Street" (hint: not a university town).

University students will actually pay attention to that stuff, unlike older voters who have become habitual in their politics and will often ignore things their candidate says which would otherwise be deeply offensive to them.

[Ender]

AQ endorses McCain

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, "impetuous" Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier," the message said. "Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush."

SITE Intelligence Group, based in Bethesda, Md., monitors the Web site and translated the message.

"If al-Qaida carries out a big operation against American interests," the message said, "this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaida. Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it."

Mark Salter, a senior McCain adviser, said he had heard about the Web site chatter but had no immediate comment.

The message is credited to a frequent and apparently respected contributor named Muhammad Haafid. However, Haafid is not believed to have a direct affiliation with al-Qaida plans or knowledge of its operations, according to SITE.

SITE senior analyst Adam Raisman said this message caught SITE's attention because there has been little other chatter on the forums about the U.S. election.

SITE was struck by the message's detailed analysis - and apparent jubilation - about American financial woes.

"What we try to do is get the pulse of the jihadist community," Raisman said. "And it's about the financial crisis."

Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden issued a videotape just four days before the 2004 U.S. presidential election directly addressing the American people.

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.

[SirNitram]

Given Osama Bin Laden has been on tape as saying he wants oil at $145 a barrel, I'm not entirely surprised they're happy with the way shit is going.

[RedImperator]

You know, the McSame campaign has screwed the pooch plenty of times without anyone's help, but they've also had some of the worst damn luck I've ever heard of. They invest weeks into this "Obama pals around with terrorists" attack, and then Al-Quaeda goes ahead and endorses them. Not that I feel the least bit sorry for them, of course.

[Duckie]

Here's another tidbit: In Florida, at least here, Obama is swamping McCain in radio and TV ads. I haven't heard a single McCain ad ever. Ever. I've heard at least 6 Obama ads and I do not own a radio or TV. Just from radios and TVs being on near me on a bus or in a restaurant or the like. I think it's safe to say Obama is drowning McCain out here unless he pumps extra money he doesn't have in.

[Shinova]

I've been seeing Obama ads on TV and this is CALIFORNIA. Obama is not just coasting the rest of the election period.

[The Romulan Republic]

AQ endorses McCain

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, "impetuous" Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier," the message said. "Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush."

SITE Intelligence Group, based in Bethesda, Md., monitors the Web site and translated the message.

"If al-Qaida carries out a big operation against American interests," the message said, "this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaida. Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it."

Mark Salter, a senior McCain adviser, said he had heard about the Web site chatter but had no immediate comment.

The message is credited to a frequent and apparently respected contributor named Muhammad Haafid. However, Haafid is not believed to have a direct affiliation with al-Qaida plans or knowledge of its operations, according to SITE.

SITE senior analyst Adam Raisman said this message caught SITE's attention because there has been little other chatter on the forums about the U.S. election.

SITE was struck by the message's detailed analysis - and apparent jubilation - about American financial woes.

"What we try to do is get the pulse of the jihadist community," Raisman said. "And it's about the financial crisis."

Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden issued a videotape just four days before the 2004 U.S. presidential election directly addressing the American people.

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.

Not surprising, but they're kind of dumb to say it. If they want McCain to win, Al Quaida should endorse Obama to give McCain more ammunition.

[Metatwaddle]

Actually, I expect the McCain campaign to say that al-Qaeda is doing exactly that, in reverse: endorsing McCain publicly to try to get Obama elected.

[The Romulan Republic]

Actually, I expect the McCain campaign to say that al-Qaeda is doing exactly that, in reverse: endorsing McCain publicly to try to get Obama elected.

Of course. I'm just wondering why Al Qaeda would issue such a counter productive statement. They've done very well recruitment and propaganda wise out of the last 8 years, and McCain offers more of the same.

[ray245]

Actually, I expect the McCain campaign to say that al-Qaeda is doing exactly that, in reverse: endorsing McCain publicly to try to get Obama elected.

Of course. I'm just wondering why Al Qaeda would issue such a counter productive statement. They've done very well recruitment and propaganda wise out of the last 8 years, and McCain offers more of the same.

Well Al Qaeda can make stupid decisions as well...unless they really want Obama to be president of course.