US Election 2008 Results Thread

[Kodiak]

15-6 in favor of Obama

DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

People in the isolated village in New Hampshire's northeast corner voted just after midnight Tuesday.

It was the first time since 1968 that the village leaned Democratic in an election.

Obama's rival, Republican John McCain, won 6 votes.

A full 100 percent of registered voters in the village cast ballots. And the votes didn't take long to tally.

The town, home to around 75 residents, has opened its polls shortly after midnight each election day since 1960, drawing national media attention for being the first place in the country to make its presidential preferences known.

However, since 1996, another small New Hampshire town -- Hart's Location -- reinstated its practice from the 1940s and also began opening its polls at midnight.

The result in Dixville Notch is hardly a reliable bellwether for the eventual winner of the White House or even the result statewide.

Though New Hampshire is a perennial swing state, Dixville Notch -- until now -- had consistently leaned Republican. The last Democrat it picked was Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon in 1968.

President Bush won the town in a landslide in the last two elections: He captured 73 percent of the vote in 2004 (19 residents picked Bush while six preferred Sen. John Kerry), and secured 80 percent of the vote in 2000 (21 votes for Bush, five votes for Al Gore.)

But villagers expected the results to be close this year given Democrats now outnumber Republicans there.

The town picked both John McCain and Barack Obama for the New Hampshire Democratic and Republican primaries in January. McCain ultimately won the state of New Hampshire, while Sen. Hillary Clinton upset Obama there.

For those of you who are not familiar with this tiny hamlet, Dixville Notch gets to vote at midnight for presidential elections. Why? Because they can. It's interesting to note that this is the 1st time in 40 years a Democrat won their ballot. I'm reminded of a cartoon I saw where a tiny pebble started rolling down a hill, hitting bigger and bigger rocks until it caused a massive landslide. This November 4th is a day for history.

[CmdrWilkens]

I'm going to toss a general recommendation that this thread would be the best place to thorw results out there as they start rolling in later today. Given that we've already had two huge pro-Obama results [23-6 Steelers and 15-6 in Dixville Notch] it could be a truly fun time today.

[Broomstick]

Voted.

Was going to get to the polls at 6 am right when they opened, but overslept. Got there at 7 am instead. Boy, am I glad I got there as early as I did!

I've been voting at this location for over 10 years. Normally there's no wait at all early in the morning. I think the most I ever waited was 10 minutes.

Today's wait? 45 minutes.

By the time I left the line not only filled up the room, it was out the door into the parking lot. Mind you, the line was moving at a fairly good pace, there weren't any problems with anything, just a LOT of people, plain and simple.

The Other Half ventured a theory that, with so many people unemployed, LOTS of folks now have the time to go to the polls and wait to vote. Seriously, I've never seen a turn out like this, and I've been a registered voter over 25 years in three different states (not simultaneously, of course )

[Duckie]

When the time comes, I hope we can gather all the election news in one place: Here. I hope making the thread a little early isn't presumptuous.

The first polls should be closing in eastern Kentucky and Indiana in 8 hours and 35 minutes.


Now, my fellow prisoners, I have to ask: Is there anywhere that is going to carry House and Senate results? I have a widget from MSNBC that claims it will be offering live results at 6PM, possibly House and Senate too.

[Civil War Man]

My grandmother used to be a poll worker in Washington. In her experience, the best time to vote if you don't want a long wait was between 9-11 am and 1-5 pm. You missed the going to work crowd, lunch break crowd, and after work crowd.

I didn't have to wait at all. Of course, I went to vote at around 9, and from what I have been able to tell the small town I live in has multiple polling stations because they are expecting abnormally high turnout.

Of course, I got there when the polls had been open for under 2 hours, and I was the 140th ballot to be counted. We use paper ballots, which are fed into a scantron, so I was able to see how many people were before me by the counter on the machine. Average about 1.3 ballots per minute, give or take.

[Glocksman]

Voted.

Was going to get to the polls at 6 am right when they opened, but overslept. Got there at 7 am instead. Boy, am I glad I got there as early as I did!

I've been voting at this location for over 10 years. Normally there's no wait at all early in the morning. I think the most I ever waited was 10 minutes.

Today's wait? 45 minutes.

By the time I left the line not only filled up the room, it was out the door into the parking lot. Mind you, the line was moving at a fairly good pace, there weren't any problems with anything, just a LOT of people, plain and simple.

The Other Half ventured a theory that, with so many people unemployed, LOTS of folks now have the time to go to the polls and wait to vote. Seriously, I've never seen a turn out like this, and I've been a registered voter over 25 years in three different states (not simultaneously, of course )

You didn't vote early?

I voted two weeks ago, and I still waited in line for over an hour.
Color me cautiously optimistic that Obama will carry Indiana despite Todd Rokita's (IN SecState) fucking around with the system.

[Broomstick]

No, I did not vote early.

Early voting in Lake County has seen multiple legal challenges and court visits this year, and I wanted to be sure my vote counted. Thus, I waited until this morning.

[Teebs]

Dixville Notch in New Hampshire went 15-6 for Obama.

[Kodiak]

I think it would be good to keep all the results in this one thread. I voted absentee for Obama a few weeks ago, and so did my wife.

[Akhlut]

Voted at 7:30 this morning before going to work. Even got a "I Voted" sticker out of the deal.

[Soontir C'boath]

Voted at 7:30 this morning before going to work. Even got a "I Voted" sticker out of the deal.

Krispy Kreme is offering a free star shape sprinkled doughnut if you come in with a "I Voted" sticker.

[Pablo Sanchez]

Merged MRDOD's thread and changed the title.

[Mr Bean]

Thread title edited and poll added.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Krispy Kreme is offering a free star shape sprinkled doughnut if you come in with a "I Voted" sticker.

Things like this make America awesome (and fat). I had to pay for my doughnut yesterday, bah.

[Tsyroc]

I voted for Obama several weeks ago as well.

I am very curious to see how the various propositions turn out in Arizona. Some of them are just stupid and essentially scams to run BS legislation passed the semi-professional legislature and try to sucker Joe Six Pack into voting it into law.

[Honorable Mention]

Voted at 7:30 this morning before going to work. Even got a "I Voted" sticker out of the deal.

Krispy Kreme is offering a free star shape sprinkled doughnut if you come in with a "I Voted" sticker.

Also, Starbucks is offering a free coffee or tea. I think it's only a tall size, though where I was they were kind enough to up it to a grande for some folks.

[Soontir C'boath]

Thread title edited and poll added.

I like how in the poll, McCain is still Senator McCain.

[CmdrWilkens]

Well I've added my vote (here and in real life) unfortunately the lines are so crazy I didn't even get an "I Voted" sticker to prove to Starbucks that I deserve a free coffee.

[Duckie]

I'll be doing my part when the polls start closing in 3.5 hours to bring updates to SDN on the winners of Senate, House, and even state level results with gain/loss for Democrats and notes on if anyone significant like Stevens who is ousted.

[Vehrec]

Free things that can be got today for voting:
Ice cream from Ben and Jerries.
Doughnuts from Krispy Kreme
Coffee from Starbucks.
And Sex Toys from Babeland, but only in New York. Someone must get this item, if no other item is got.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Free things that can be got today for voting:
Ice cream from Ben and Jerries.
Doughnuts from Krispy Kreme
Coffee from Starbucks.
And Sex Toys from Babeland, but only in New York. Someone must get this item, if no other item is got.

It's also a felony in every single case, so they're handing them out free to anyone now to avoid criminal charges.

[RedImperator]

Poll Closing Times, and what to expect as the night goes on
Note: All times EST (UTC -5). Some states that spam multiple time zones have different closing times for different locations; I will only list the times at which all polls in a given state are closed. State electoral vote totals are in parentheses.

• 7:00 PM: Georgia (15), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13)
  What to watch for: Vermont and Kentucky will be called almost immediately, as will the Indiana gubernatorial election for incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels and the Virginia senate election for Democrat Mark Warner. In Vermont, the Republicans will get some of their only good news in new England, as incumbent governor Jim Douglas is declared the winner at the same time Obama is. In Georgia, "too early to call" means a likely easy McCain win, while "too close to call" means Obama is hanging tight, though an upset is unlikely unless pollsters' turnout models badly underestimate African-American turnout.
  
  The better drama in Georgia is the Senate race between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin. For the Democrats to reach 60 votes in the Senate, it is essential that they win this seat. Chambliss is leading as of the final polls, but a strong Obama turnout could push Martin over the top. Martin is helped by Georgia law, which requires Senatorial candidates win an absolute majority, not just a plurality, meaning if Martin can hold Chambliss under 50%, the race will go to a runoff next month, extending the interminable Campaign 2008 another thirty days. Assisting Martin is a relatively strong Libertarian Party candidate, who may siphon off enough votes from Chambliss to keep him from reaching 50%.
  
  The big prize at 7 PM Eastern, is, of course, Virginia's 13 electoral votes. While McCain can theoretically win without it, he must flip Pennsylvania to do so, which remains highly unlikely, and hold Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. Given Obama's comfortable lead in the polls, the earlier this one is called, the better it is for the Democrats. A very early call for Obama may indicate a landslide in progress.
  -----
• 7:30 PM: Ohio (20), West Virginia (5)
  What to watch for: No drama in West Virginia. John McCain will win easily, while incumbent Democrats Joe Manchin (governor) and Jay Rockefeller (Senator) are cruising to landslides. Ohio has no statewide elections other than president this cycle, and it's virtually deadlocked. Expect the counting in Ohio to go on long into the night. McCain must win Ohio, as there are virtually no plausible paths to victory for him without the Buckeye State.
  -----
• 8:00 PM: Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (13), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Oklahoma (7), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee (11)
  What to watch for: McCain supporters will be holding their breath here. McCain went all-in in Pennsylvania in the final weeks of the campaign, and now he sees if it paid off. If it doesn't, Obama supporters can relax; if Virginia has already been called for Obama, they can feel free to pop the corks without jinxing anything. Also in play are Florida and Missouri, two states, like Ohio, which McCain counted on to take care of themselves while he tried to flip PA. If they don't, he's toast, but by the time there's a call in either of them, the election may be over anyway. If he does flip Pennsylvania, Obama's path to the White House goes through Florida and Florida alone, because it's hard to imagine a scenario where Pennsylvania goes red but Ohio goes blue.
  
  The only other interesting state in the presidential contest is New Hampshire, which has been good to him in his career, but probably won't be this time around. Every other state is in the bag for one candidate or the other, including both Maine congressional districts (Maine splits its electoral vote by CD winner).
  
  In the Senate races, Susan Collins (R-inc) will win comfortably in Maine, disappointing Democrats who saw her seat as a possible pickup. They should, however, pick up a seat in New Hampshire, where former governor Jeanne Shaheen has a solid lead over incumbent Republican John Sununu. Elsewhere in New England, John Kerry (D-MA) will be declared the winner of his election at 8:01, which should be a refreshing change for him. Decrepit old zombie Frank Lautenberg (D-New Jersey) will easily defeat Republican Dick ZImmer, and then eat his brains. In the south, another disappointment for the Democrats will be the Mississippi-(B) race, where Roger Wicker, appointed to fill Trent Lott's seat early this year, will defeat former governor Ronnie Musgrove. In the Mississippi-(A) race, Thad Cochrane (R-inc) will win in a landslide. Alabama incumbent Jeff Sessions (R) will also win easily. Incumbent Oklahoma Republican and all-around crazy shithead James Inhoffe will crush his Democratic challenger, while the other Senator from Illinois, incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin, will cruise to victory. The comedy option, in my opinion, is the Delaware Senate race, where Joe Biden, a man running for a new job who hasn't spent a minute campaigning for his old one (even his signs just say "Delaware's Joe Biden"), will effortless annihilate Christine O'Donnell, a woman described as "Delaware's Sarah Palin" before that was an insult.
  
  In the gubernatorial elections, John Lynch (D) will be easily reelected in New Hampshire, while in Delaware, Democrat Jack Markell will succeed incumbent Democrat Ruth-Ann Minner, giving him a possible chance to appoint his primary opponent, incumbent lieutenant-governor John Carney, to Joe Biden's senate seat, assuming Minner doesn't do it first. The Democrats will make a pickup in Missouri, with Jay Nixon (no relation, presumably) beating Republican Kenny Hulshof.
  -----
• 8:30 PM: Arkansas (6), North Carolina (15)
  What to watch for: We have an extremely boring state and an extremely interesting state here. First, the boring one: Arkansas will go heavily for McCain, but it will also easily reelect Democratic Senator Mark Pryor, whose only opponent is a member of the Green Party.
  
  North Carolina, on the other hand, has three toss-up races. The state is a dead heat in the presidential election. In the Senate, Democrat Kay Hagan has started to pull away from incumbent Republican Liddy Dole, but a lot depends on how long Obama's coattails are. Obama's coattails could be even more important to Democratic lieutenant-governor Beverly Purdue, who's locked in a dead heat with Republican Patrick McCrory. An interesting dynamic in this race is, as in Georgia, the Libertarian candidate, polling between 2-5%, which could be enough to throw the race to Purdue.
  -----
• 9:00 PM: Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Louisiana (9), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3)
  What to watch for: Colorado, Colorado, and Colorado. By this time, Colorado may be McCain's last chance to win the election. Unfortunately for him, his chances seem poor, barring astronomical Republican turnout on the Western Slope. South Dakota will be closer than it's been in decades, but not nearly close enough. Obama has closed much of the gap in Arizona and in another year, he'd probably be winning it, but even in a landslide, McCain probably holds on, sparing himself some epic lulz at his expense. Nothing else is close and they should all be called early, including Nebraska's second congressional district (Nebraska, like Maine, splits its EVs by district, but like Maine, the statewide winner should be the winner in all districts). Note that this is probably the absolute earliest the networks would call the election for Obama, with New York's 31 EVs putting him over the top; before this, even the best possible Obama map, including an early Michigan call (Michigan straddles Eastern and Central time and the eastern districts close at , leaves him shy of 270. At this point, it's more likely Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri are still out, while Indiana and Georgia have been called for McCain, and Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire for Obama, putting Obama at 193 EVs to McCain's 156. I'm sure somebody will be hyperventilating in this thread, so whoever you are, calm down and listen: Obama has a guaranteed 77 EV's waiting for him when the West Coast polls close. 77 plus 193 equals champaign time, even if by some miracle McCain wins Iowa, Nevada and every state that's still out. So keep that number in your head: 193 @ 9 PM means this fuckin' game is over.
  
  Now for the downballot stuff. The Democrats make two easy Senate pickups in New Mexico and Colorado, with Mark and Tom Udall (not a coincidence; they're cousins) cruising to easy wins. Karl Levin (D-Michigan), Tim Johnson (D-S. Dakota), Max Baucus (D-Montana), and Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana) all hold their seats (Landrieu and Johnson were the only remotely vulnerable Democratic incumbents this year, but the GOP nominated a lunatic in South Dakota and Johnson was never in any real danger, and their chosen candidate in Louisiana, Democrat-turned-Republican John Kennedy, has grossly underperformed). For the Republicans, John Cornyn (Texas), Michael Enzi (Wyoming-A) and John Barrasso (Wyoming-B) will hold their seats. One vacant Republican seat will be held by the GOP: Mike Johannes will replace Chuck Hagel in Nebraska.
  
  That leaves the Minnesota Senate race as the big show at 9 PM. Unpopular (and possibly ethically challenged) Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is facing deeply flawed Democratic challenger Al Franken are neck-and-neck, and to further complicate matters, third-party challenger Dean Barkley is polling between 15-20%. Since Minnesota does not require a absolute majority, any of the three could win with a plurality, though obviously Barkley is a long shot. Don't expect results for this one before Wednesday morning--if that.
  
  There are no gubernatorial elections. This is actually a pretty quiet year for governor's races.
  -----
• 10:00 PM: Iowa (7), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Montana (3), Nevada (5), Utah (5)
  What to watch for: The presidential party could be all over by now, or everybody could be on the edge of his seat, looking to see if Nevada's five electoral votes push Barack Obama over the top. He has a solid lead there and Nevada is poor territory for a Bradley Effect, so that's a likely pickup. I did not make a mistake with Montana: Big Sky Country is a genuine toss-up this year, along with its neighbor North Dakota. However, it's unlikely it will make a difference; any election where Obama wins Montana is an election where he's won Virginia and Colorado, too, making it superfluous. However, Obama would undoubtedly love to win this state because it would go a long way towards giving him a nationwide mandate. Democratic partisans would also love to win this state, because it would be a demoralizing and humiliating blow to the Republicans. Further east, Iowa is a solid Obama win; it's the only Bush '04 state where he's held a lead all year, even at the height of the McCain post-convention bounce. That's what happens when you spend a year of your time and approximately a zillion dollars contesting the Iowa caucus--Iowans love the attention (McCain blew them off twice), and you've got an organization in place that could motivate half the population to vote against corn. Speaking of corn, a little ethanol pandering never hurt in Iowa either, and Obama was happy to do that, too.
  
  The other two states are Republican locks. Kansas and Utah will give their combined 9 electoral votes to John McCain.
  
  In the Senate, Democrats will easily hang onto Iowa (Tom Harkin) and Montana (Max Baucus), while Republicans in Kansas happily reelect Pat Roberts.
  
  Two gubernatorial elections as well. Brian Schweitzer (D) will hang onto the Montana state house, and Jon Huntsman will run away with the contest in Utah.
  -----
• 11:00 PM: California (55), Hawaii (4), Idaho (4), North Dakota (3), Oregon (7), Washington (11)
  What to watch for: If we reach 11:01 and the race hasn't been called for Obama, something has gone drastically wrong. Best case, all the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico are in, and one or more swing state is still out (except Montana or North Dakota, which both must go blue to push Obama to 270). Worst case, McCain actually flipped Pennsylvania and we're waiting for the toss-ups to come back (and if McCain has flipped Pennsylvania, you can safely assume he held Ohio and Missouri as well), which could mean...yes, Florida could, again, be the deciding state in a presidential election. Jesus Christ, what an awful thought. On the other hand, if you've been following along at home, you know it's much more likely one or more of the West Coast states will push Obama over the top.
  
  As far as suspense goes, North Dakota and its three electoral votes are it. McCain will crush Obama in Iowa, Obama will crush him everywhere else (fun fact: according to Electoral-Vote.com, McCain has not cracked 40% in California, Hawaii, Oregon, or Washington. McCain is doing better in Vermont than he is in California.) North Dakota will either be the cherry on top of a landslide, or a McCain state; there are more or less no scenarios where North Dakota, or even North Dakota and Montana together, cast the deciding votes.
  
  In the Senate, we have a good chance for a Democratic pickup in Oregon, as moderate Republican Gordon Smith apparently isn't moderate enough for Oregonians anymore (maybe Smith, Sununu and Lincoln Chafee can start a club). In Idaho, the Republicans will hang on to a seat that in theory the Democrats had an outside shot at, as Jim Risch will take over Larry "Wide Stance" Craig's seat. (Get it? Seat? I slay me.)
  
  In Washington, there's a rematch for the governor's mansion, between incumbent Democrat Christine Gregorie and Republican Dino Rossi. Rossi has kept it close (in 2004, the election was decided by fewer than 200 votes), but Gregorie seems to be in a position to hold on if Democratic turnout is good. Governor Gregorie is probably sitting around with her fingers crossed, hoping the networks don't call the presidential election for Obama at 7:15 or something like that.
  
  And finally in California, there is, of course, Proposition 8, which, if passed, would ban same-sex marriage in the California constitution, a potentially devastating blow to the cause of marriage equality (California is a bleeding-edge state; what happens there usually ends up happening to the rest of the country eventually). Presently, the "No on 8" campaign is over 50%, but propositions are notoriously difficult to poll. Even if the presidential election is long over, this one is worth watching--and voting against, if you're in California.
  -----
• 12:00 AM: Alaska (3)
  What to watch for: Not much. Alaska was potentially in play until Governor Demagogue found herself called up to the big leagues, and even though her approval ratings have plunged 20 points since then, she'll still carry the state. On the other hand, if you're up for some schadenfreude, convicted felon Ted Stevens (R) is going to get his ass kicked by Democrat Mark Begich. If tonight is a really good night for the Democrats, Begich will be vote #60 in the Senate, sentencing the Republican Party to at least two years of complete impotence at the Federal level.

EDIT: Left out the Utah governor's race, such as it is.

[Bounty]

What's the best place to follow the results as they come in? Apart from this thread.

[Lonestar]

Free things that can be got today for voting:
Ice cream from Ben and Jerries.
Doughnuts from Krispy Kreme
Coffee from Starbucks.
And Sex Toys from Babeland, but only in New York. Someone must get this item, if no other item is got.

Both the Dems and Republicans were handing out some Mrs. Fields at my polling place.

[Uraniun235]

In the Senate, we have a good chance for a Democratic pickup in Oregon, as moderate Republican Gordon Smith apparently isn't moderate enough for Oregonians anymore (maybe Smith, Sununu and Lincoln Chafee can start a club).

The Merkley campaign here has been hammering on tying Smith to Bush at every opportunity; looks like it might have stuck. Me, I still haven't forgiven Smith for going along with the Republicans' attempt to kill Death With Dignity, and I'm also perfectly willing to boot him for having voted for invading Iraq.