How long could the human lifespan realistically be extended

[Ariphaos]

The problem with pensions is already critical today in the first world. And this is down simply to the advent of antibiotics, better surgical procedures, sanitation and diet. We've gone from living 40 years to over double that on average, and if you factor in the ever growing advances in medicine and technology, it'll only be exacerbated. The hurdle then becomes whether we can afford to have this longevity treatment, not whether it is possible. I see the rich and powerful being the sole benefiters of this new tech.

With machines taking over more and more of production, and individuals capable of doing more, I don't particularly see why this would be the case. We're talking about society in 50 years or more, here - not tomorrow, and if only the rich and powerful are receiving such treatment, then they are facing lynch mobs.

Keep in mind, this creates some pretty hale bodies. You're not looking at a bunch of old, decrepit people needing to be on life support here.

[PainRack]

You know, bones actually regenerate. People that break them don't fill the gaps up with cement, they knit together. Any structural problems would be negated by having far more efficient bone marrow and general cellular processes. Osterporosis or osteogenesis imperfect would be eradicated.

And since your tissues are always being replaced, I don't see what the last statement even means. Do you think you start out with the same cells you had at birth? Your entire body is brand new every 10 years, not just cells, but at the atomic scale.

I was under the impression that the deposits of plague in blood vessels, as well as the deformation of bone structure/shape is currently irreversible without nano-surgery.???

[Admiral Valdemar]

With machines taking over more and more of production, and individuals capable of doing more, I don't particularly see why this would be the case. We're talking about society in 50 years or more, here - not tomorrow, and if only the rich and powerful are receiving such treatment, then they are facing lynch mobs.

Keep in mind, this creates some pretty hale bodies. You're not looking at a bunch of old, decrepit people needing to be on life support here.

Those people will still need to work. What many often forget about the radical move to automate industry to some utopian ideal, is that you've now got a labour force with very little labour going for it. They then either take someone else's job, leading to higher market competition and likely higher unemployment, or some spin-off niche market comes about which they fill, perhaps looking after those machines, assuming they're qualified.

But yes, the advantages here would be not so much more people living longer, but able bodied people. The pension crisis has arrived because those bodies living longer aren't feeding the economy, but leeching it. Our generation will be working till well into their 70s before we retire, no doubt.

I was under the impression that the deposits of plague in blood vessels, as well as the deformation of bone structure/shape is currently irreversible without nano-surgery.???

A healthy body wouldn't accumulate such plaques in the first place and bone deformation, aside from congenital defects or physical injury, is a consequence of bone regeneration failing as with any aged tissue. There should be no need to have surgery if your body is optimised to maintain its current regenerative efficiency until well into your second century or whenever.

[Lord of the Abyss]

Those people will still need to work. What many often forget about the radical move to automate industry to some utopian ideal, is that you've now got a labour force with very little labour going for it.

Well, if automation ever does replace most or all human labor, we're simply going to have to change the system and attitudes that demand that all people work. Our modern system would collapse if most people sat back and leeched off it. A fully or nearly fully automated system would collapse if we demanded that people work before gaining benefits from it, because there simply wouldn't be jobs for them. Whether that's utopian or dystopian depends on your view of human nature and purpose.

[Admiral Valdemar]

It does remind me of a discussion at SB.com involving utopian and dystopian concepts and where Es Arkajae voiced his hatred of the Culture in Banks' novels. That was mainly down to his obscure sense of heroism though rather than lack of worker bees because of machines, so to speak.

[Junghalli]

The problem with pensions is already critical today in the first world. And this is down simply to the advent of antibiotics, better surgical procedures, sanitation and diet. We've gone from living 40 years to over double that on average, and if you factor in the ever growing advances in medicine and technology, it'll only be exacerbated. The hurdle then becomes whether we can afford to have this longevity treatment, not whether it is possible. I see the rich and powerful being the sole benefiters of this new tech.

Maybe at first, but ultimately I think a more probable solution would be to just bump up the retirement age to more realistically reflect the average person's productive lifespan. I think I speak for most people when I say I'd much rather retire at 80 and live to 115 than retire at 65 and live to 80.

[Singular Quartet]

It does remind me of a discussion at SB.com involving utopian and dystopian concepts and where Es Arkajae voiced his hatred of the Culture in Banks' novels. That was mainly down to his obscure sense of heroism though rather than lack of worker bees because of machines, so to speak.

Yes, but Es is fucking retarded, and wasn't even right on that: Contact and Special Circumstances exists for all your hero needs.

On topic, though: I can see the eventual shift to mech-bodies, and I can also see a growing number of people wanting to look like Makoto Kusanagi. I think I'd be creepy to go to a con, and see a whole bunch of anime-lookalikes that used to be fat, overweight fanboys that are now large-busted women.

[His Divine Shadow]

But yes, the advantages here would be not so much more people living longer, but able bodied people. The pension crisis has arrived because those bodies living longer aren't feeding the economy, but leeching it. Our generation will be working till well into their 70s before we retire, no doubt.

Thats is I guess how the West will compete against the larger populations of the developing countries in the future, by having experienced workers that are old but not decrepit.

[PainRack]

A healthy body wouldn't accumulate such plaques in the first place and bone deformation, aside from congenital defects or physical injury, is a consequence of bone regeneration failing as with any aged tissue. There should be no need to have surgery if your body is optimised to maintain its current regenerative efficiency until well into your second century or whenever.

Plaque deposits is the result of your body acculumuating fats in blood vessels, an entirely normal, physiological process.

Ditto for spinal degeneration for example, its because of the way the human body is built. While regeneration may affect joints, I don't see how it will affect the shape of the spine, but then again, I'm not a biologist.

[Shrykull]

Since the bones will be worn out by normal wear and tear(the spinal cord starts degenerating by the age of 10!!!!), you're talking about a lot of surgery once you go past 100.

You need to replace the heart, the kidneys, your blood vessels, your bones...........

You know, bones actually regenerate. People that break them don't fill the gaps up with cement, they knit together. Any structural problems would be negated by having far more efficient bone marrow and general cellular processes. Osterporosis or osteogenesis imperfect would be eradicated.

And since your tissues are always being replaced, I don't see what the last statement even means. Do you think you start out with the same cells you had at birth? Your entire body is brand new every 10 years, not just cells, but at the atomic scale.

I remember someone using that as an argument that transporters really wouldn't just be creating a clone of you, since even your neurons are replaced on the atomic level, new cell membranes and proteins (what about chromosomes?)

[Shrykull]

Indefinitely. There is no real reason, other than cancer, why we can't live forever using regenerative therapies to aid in making cellular repair more efficient. As it is, the only reason we die is because we are programmed to die, not because we acquire too much damage, though that is a result of this programming.

Our cells are all meant to senesce after around 20 generations, give or take a few. Once that is done, the cell line is finished and imperfect copies takeover, if at all. Look at HeLa cell lines and bacteria or nematodes. Those guys can live for ever, or at least a damn sight longer than us simply by altering their diet or doing a bit of gene knockout with regards to cell cycle limits.

But bacteria are single-celled, what about the telomere, doesn't it act as a signal for cells to stop growing and if you tampered with it, you'd guarantee you'd get cancer? Unless you may could have nanotech remake and remove it on demand.

[wolveraptor]

Wouldn't the heat-death of the universe irrevocably limit human lifespans? If useable energy in the universe won't always exist, how can a person always exist?

[DesertFly]

Wouldn't the heat-death of the universe irrevocably limit human lifespans? If useable energy in the universe won't always exist, how can a person always exist?

Y'know, maybe I'm crazy here, but somehow I imagine that by the time that comes around, if we've managed to extend human life-spans that much, we'll suss out some way to survive even that.

[NecronLord]

Wouldn't the heat-death of the universe irrevocably limit human lifespans? If useable energy in the universe won't always exist, how can a person always exist?

That's a problem that's so far in the future that if humans are still around, they'd almost certainly have to have knowledge and powers far beyond our comprehension. And even we can concieve of and have some speculative ideas about fleeing to another 'younger' 'universe.'

[Lisa]

I don't see the human life span being extended more then 10 to 20 years in the next 200 years. Yes we have some seriously old people, and the number of old people are on the rise but they're still the minority. And with obeceity(sp) and diabeties on the rise due to lack of exercise, over eating and poor food choices I could see things taking a turn for the worse before it gets better.

[Ariphaos]

I don't see the human life span being extended more then 10 to 20 years in the next 200 years. Yes we have some seriously old people, and the number of old people are on the rise but they're still the minority. And with obeceity(sp) and diabeties on the rise due to lack of exercise, over eating and poor food choices I could see things taking a turn for the worse before it gets better.

Diabetes is one of the seven problems SENS mentions.

And as I've mentioned in the Obesity thread, there are external (as in, not personal) causes for American obesity and it's largely an American, not worldwide problem. That doesn't apply outside the US and may no longer apply in the US if we get rid of the moronic tariffs.

[NecronLord]

It does remind me of a discussion at SB.com involving utopian and dystopian concepts and where Es Arkajae voiced his hatred of the Culture in Banks' novels. That was mainly down to his obscure sense of heroism though rather than lack of worker bees because of machines, so to speak.

Having looked it up, that's some grade A1A shit he's spouting right there.

I especially like how, rather than living in the Culture, he'd want to 'make an empire in Middle Earth' (another option in that thread) leaving aside the claim that he could do so with any kind of ease, as opposed to the locals just taking his knowledge of advanced technological principles (if it's substantial) and saying 'thanks, now, go live over there' in a best case scenario (let alone opposing Morgoth, with his giant rock melting plasma-torch tanks), it doesn't take much more than a watching of the films to get that there's a 'higher power' manipulating things there in a distinctly SC style (ahem, respawning Gandalf and Gollum just happening to be around at all the best times). The only difference of consequence being that the higher power there is singular and even more all powerful.

[Xuenay]

There are seven main aging problems (at least according to SENS, and I've seen no serious refutation of them).

There was Technology Review's challenge which dismissed the critiques submitted against SENS, but some of the people whose submissions were dismissed expressed pretty heavy criticism against the challenge's methology.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Grey_Te ... ontroversy and http://www.technologyreview.com/sens/index.aspx for those interested. In case you didn't know, SENS is geneticist Aubrey de Grey's plan for curing aging within our lifetimes - I have no clue if he's correct in what he says, but it'd be pretty cool if he was.