Sudden leap in Swine Flu Deaths

[Bedlam]

Two patients who were infected by a mutation that was also recently detected in Norway have died in France, the government's Health Surveillance Institute (InVS) said in a statement.

"This mutation could increase the ability of the virus to affect the respiratory tracts and, in particular, the lung tissue," said a statement from "For one of these patients, this mutation was accompanied by another mutation known to confer resistance to oseltamivir," it added, referring to the main drug being used to treat swine flu, under the brand name Tamiflu.

The case was the first drug-resistant strain found in France among the 1,200 strains experts have analysed here, the InVS said, adding that "the effectiveness of vaccines currently available is not being questioned."

The two patients were not related and had been hospitalised in two different cities in France, it said.

The WHO said Friday the death toll had reached at least 7,826 worldwide since the A(H1N1) flu virus was first uncovered in April.

The number of deaths reported to the UN health agency showed the biggest rise in the Americas, where 5,360 deaths have now been recorded compared to 4,806 a week ago.

But Europe also posted a substantial increase percentage-wise with at least 650 fatalities now reported, representing a surge of 300 deaths or 85 percent from data posted a week ago.

The WHO said Thursday it was investigating reports of mutations in the virus, after half a dozen countries recorded such cases.

"The question is whether these mutations again suggest that there is a fundamental change going on in viruses out there -- whether there's a turn for the worse in terms of severity," said Keiji Fukuda, WHO's special adviser on pandemic influenza.

"The answer right now is that we are not sure," he added following reports from China, Japan, Norway, Ukraine and the United States.

He noted, however, that mutations are common in influenza viruses, and "if every mutation is reported out there it would be like reporting changes in the weather."

"What we're trying to do when we see reports of mutations is to identify if these mutations are leading to any kinds of changes in the clinical picture -- do they cause more severe or less severe disease?

"Also we're trying to see if these viruses are increasing out there as that would suggest a change in epidemiology," he added.

China said earlier Thursday that it had discovered eight people with mutated versions of swine flu while Norway reported last week that it had detected one case.

Fukuda also said that the UN health agency was looking into Tamiflu-resistant cases reported in Britain and the United States but noted they concerned people who are already undergoing treatment for other diseases or who have underlying health issues.

The health agency was therefore maintaining its assessment that Tamiflu, produced by Swiss drugmaker Roche, remained "effective" as a treatment for swine flu, but that "we do have to be vigilant in these very susceptible people."


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20091127/th ... ffa79.html

Well this doesn't sound good, seems like a second wave of Swine flu, although at present the language used is very cautious.

[Broomstick]

Keep in mind that until recently we have never been able to look in such detail at either flu virus or its spread. Some of these features may be common to any flu outbreak or strain. Some may not. Hence, the cautious statements.

The recent swine flu outbreak in North America is NOT the normal time of year for flu. The usual flu season has yet to begin. A second wave is anticipated. Whether it will be better or worse is not yet determined.

[Winston Blake]

He noted, however, that mutations are common in influenza viruses, and "if every mutation is reported out there it would be like reporting changes in the weather."

Given how random mutations are, you could also say: 'Like the weather, you can't predict the effects of mutations more than a short time in advance'.

I don't think anyone will know for certain if/when there'll be a second wave, until it's underway.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I'm so glad I already have had it; it should confer partial immunity to a relatively fresh mutation in the same way old people who have been exposed to H1N1 before have immunity right now.

I wonder if people will look at the prospect of some equivalent of Variolation if this gets serious? Intentionally infecting people with the less severe strain to increase their chances of survival.

[Broomstick]

That's essentially what is done with FluMist - the live but weakened virus form of flu vaccine. So it's already being done.

[Bedlam]

It did suprise me when I first saw this article as only a few weeks ago I saw another article (I havn't managed to find it again) that was talking about the level of genetic variation in Swine Flu being suprisingly low with samples collected at the outset of the outbreak being more of less identical to the current ones. That generally made me feel alot better about the possibility of a second wave of outbreaks and the possibility of the evolution of a more deadly version, now this article goes the other way suggesting quite a high mutation rate and the possibilty of more deadly strains, I guess I should look into what I read more deeply.