What would happen if we detonated 4 atomic bombs each second

[Irbis]

Nothing. Or, at least, that's what is already happening, and we hardly notice it:

Our planet is building up a lot of heat. When scientists add up all the heat warming the oceans, land, atmosphere and melting the ice, they calculate that our planet is accumulating heat at a rate of 2.5x10^14 Watts. This is equivalent to 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second.

When I mention this in public talks, I see eyes as wide as saucers. Few people are aware of how much heat our climate system is absorbing. To actively communicate our planet's energy imbalance, Skeptical Science is releasing the Skeptical Science Heat Widget.

Why Make the Widget?

When Dana Nuccitelli and John Cook first conceived of the widget, it was to counter a misconception that has gained in popularity over the last year - that global warming has stopped since 1998 (or sometime around then). People who deny global warming fail to take one simple fact into account - our planet continues to build up heat. In fact, the heat build-up hasn't slowed down at all over the last few decades - it has increased. The laws of physics did not cease to operate after 1998 and the greenhouse effect continues to blaze away. Our widget demonstrates this in strong, clear, visual terms.

The Numbers

Every day the planet adds the equivalent, in heat, of the energy released by the detonation of 343,008 atomic bombs of the size dropped on Hiroshima.

Every day the planet adds the equivalent, in heat, of the energy needed to power 153,792 hurricanes of the magnitude of Hurricane Sandy.

Every day the planet adds the equivalent, in heat, of the energy released by 43.2 billion lightning bolts.

According to one study (Levitus et al, 2012):

"We have estimated an increase of 24x10^22 J representing a volume mean warming of 0.09°C of the 0-2000m layer of the World Ocean. If this heat were instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36°C (65°F)."

The total heat content data used in the widget has been taken from Nuccitelli et al (2012), which in turn took the atomsphere, land and ice melt data from Church et al (2011), and the ocean temperatures above 2000 meters from Levitus et al (2012).

Get On Board

If you are frightened by recent developments (Japan reneging on its prior emissions targets, record global emissions, repeated extreme weather events, and others), then you can help to spread the message about climate change, and the science behind climate change, by both hosting the widget itself and using social media to help it spread.

Companion infographic page here. The number on counter is worth noting.

[amigocabal]

"We have estimated an increase of 24x10^22 J representing a volume mean warming of 0.09°C of the 0-2000m layer of the World Ocean. If this heat were instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36°C (65°F)."

I suspect that the property of the ocean that results in an increase of 0.09°C from absorbing 24x10^22 J also prevents the heat from being instantly transferred into the atmosphere.

[amigocabal]

By the way, it was mentioned in a comment on Reason.com

Silly skeptic, the hockey stick simply moved to the oceans.

In 1998 the oceans magically became a heat sink and started storing the heat there instead of the atmosphere.

[Simon_Jester]

And yet, the Northwest Passage is still clear in summertime, which is nearly unprecedented. And yet, glaciers on mountaintops still melt. And yet, cities experience more record-setting heat and less extreme cold than at any time in their recorded history.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

By the way, it was mentioned in a comment on Reason.com

Silly skeptic, the hockey stick simply moved to the oceans.

In 1998 the oceans magically became a heat sink and started storing the heat there instead of the atmosphere.

No, not magic, trade winds.

Summary: The Pacific trade winds have been blowing much more strongly since the 1990s (due to a long-period climate cycle.) This serves to stir up the surface layers of the ocean ... bringing cooler water to the surface to absorb heat that would otherwise go into the atmosphere, and then subsequently stirring the warmed water into the oceans ... where water's fantastically high specific heat means it can soak up huge quantities of heat.

Given that the increase in Pacific trade winds is due to a poorly-understood, but cyclical long-term phenomena; it follows that eventually the abnormally strong winds will, at some point, die down again. When that happens there won't be nearly as much of that lovely oceanic mixing that's been flattening the "hockey stick." Then the CO2 induced atmospheric heating will resume, and the Pacific will begin re-radiating all that stored heat into the atmosphere.

The degree of warming will be such that it will be like the current "hiatus" never existed.