Climate change and ISIS - exploitng a crisis to positive ends

[Adam Reynolds]

After the Paris attacks Bernie Sanders stated that he believed that a large part of the problem with ISIS was caused by climate change. While it is undoubtedly true that climate change will increase global instability and that it is a long term national security issue, it is unlikely to be a direct factor in having caused ISIS.

350.org made similar claims as well, calling the Paris climate summit perhaps the most important peace summit ever held.

Everyone here agrees that climate change is an issue, but how reasonable is it to use the tragedy in Paris to influence public opinion about global warming? The other question is whether this will backfire due to people being disgusted with climate advocates as a result. My dad made a comment to this effect with regard to Sanders.

[Purple]

I am going to say not at all and hell yea.

[The Romulan Republic]

I think Sanders has a legitimate point, even if perhaps he overstated it. However, I also think it may backfire politically, because in times like these a lot of people prefer simplistic answers and will likely see any method other than military force, discrimination, and taking away civil liberties as weakness, or worse, helping the terrorists. Which isn't to say we shouldn't be fighting, just that their are other sides to the issue that might get overlooked. But I digress.

However, I don't think its necessarily fair to say that Sanders is using the Paris attacks. Sanders is pretty consistent about what he believes, and he's probably savvy enough to know that what he's saying might not be popular- I'd say odds are he's being sincere.

But seriously, shouldn't this be in News and Politics?

[Elheru Aran]

IF climate change is a factor in the growth of ISIS, it's not a primary factor IMO. It could certainly be a contributing factor, but I don't think enough studies of the specific situation re climate change in the Middle East have either been done or have been compared to produce a useful result at the moment. I don't have the time to go check it out, though.

How it could be a contributing factor: The easiest is to point out possible impacts upon agriculture, which could in turn impact regional economics. You could point at the idea that hotter climates lead to more fights and conflict; there's been some work done upon that, don't know if it's panned anything out.

[Borgholio]

Well I do recall reading something the other day that stated if the climate kept warming at it's current pace, then parts of the Middle East and Africa would be too hot to allow humans to permanently live there anymore. I can totally see that causing migration and conflict.

[Elheru Aran]

Yeah, unfortunately, I see that becoming a problem across much of the equatorial regions of the world. Some areas are going to be better than others-- for example the west side of Central and South America is fairly mountainous, so that will help. But overall as things warm up, the tropics will get hotter than they already are, to the point where it'll be frankly uncomfortable even for the people who already live there. That's not going to do local water supplies and agriculture any good, either.

[Civil War Man]

IF climate change is a factor in the growth of ISIS, it's not a primary factor IMO. It could certainly be a contributing factor, but I don't think enough studies of the specific situation re climate change in the Middle East have either been done or have been compared to produce a useful result at the moment. I don't have the time to go check it out, though.

How it could be a contributing factor: The easiest is to point out possible impacts upon agriculture, which could in turn impact regional economics. You could point at the idea that hotter climates lead to more fights and conflict; there's been some work done upon that, don't know if it's panned anything out.

The phrase I've commonly heard applied to the situation is "threat multiplier," in that a resource shortage in a region that is normally stable and prosperous causes significantly less unrest in regions that are poor and unstable. A drought in California, for example, might only cause a few demonstrations or angry letters to the editor. Meanwhile, a drought similar severity in a place like Syria would be catastrophic, since the ongoing unrest and civil war means it doesn't have the resources or infrastructure necessary to mitigate some of the effects of the water shortage.

[Elheru Aran]

Threat multiplier is a good way to put it. Even if a drought in California got severe enough to put a lot of people out of work and endanger food production, the States still has enough money to throw at the problem (providing the pols can stop arguing about how to use it for long enough to actually put it to use) that it wouldn't be a critical issue to the rest of the country. Other resources can be put to use, food can be bought from other countries, and so forth. Syria-- all the possible hot-spots around the world really-- doesn't have that kind of money.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I don't think that ISIS can specifically be contributed to climate change, at least not in a sense direct enough to be in any way meaningful. ISIS specifically is the result of a more complex interaction of cultural, historical, religious, political, and socioeconomic factors, which in and of themselves are all impacted by climate change to varying degrees and through various mechanisms.

The only sense that climate change contributes to ISIS is in the way climate change has impacted the Syrian Civil War in general. That is, while ISIS from a political, ideological and methodological standpoint is more principally derived from other factors, the broader violence which helped foster ISIS and allow for it to develop in the way it did is very strongly correlated with climate change. After all, from 2006-2011, over half of Syria was subjected to the worst recorded drought in its history. Mass livestock and agricultural die-offs helped create a large, impoverished cohort in the population, that was further disenfranchised by Assad's regime (which, true to nature with dictatorships, awarded land rights based on political lines, forcing most farmers to drill illegal, private wells because they were cut-off from the few remaining sources of water). This unemployed group were central to the initial incidents and protests (especially in Dar'a) that sparked the Syrian Civil War proper.

It is also worth noting the important role that water-rights and access to water-rights have played in Middle Eastern history. Westerners have a tendency to only view the Middle East in terms of its political and religious conflicts (e.g. Sunni vs Shia). Not that these aren't very real and destructive, but they have been and continue to be heavily influenced by the more complex web of old tribal relationships that course through the region. For example, Saddam Hussein's rise to power and regime were heavily tied to the fortunes of the Al-Bu Nasir tribe, and his ability to control the country was due to their network of tribal alliances. In fact, tribal leaders were more influential in Saddam's Iraq than high ranking members of the Ba'ath Party. Another example is Bashar Assad, the Syrian Ba'ath, and the Alawite faction behind him, which are dominated by the Kalbiyya tribe. Even ISIS is heavily driven by tribal politics (see also this great overview of Syrian tribal politics).

And, of course, historically (and not even that far back, within living memory) most of these tribal relationships (both alliances and enmities) developed in no small part over access to water rights.

[trekky0623]

I think it's definitely going to backfire just because how strong Sanders's claim was. However, I do think there is a slight indirect correlation between global climate change and global unrest in areas affected most strongly by climate change. This wasn't really the time to try and argue that point, though, and there are many, many other factors that are responsible for the formation of ISIS.

[ray245]

What happened in Syria could be used as an indication how could climate change affect us in more direct ways than simply having warmer weather. It shows that the problems faced by poor Africian or Middle Eastern countries can have massive spillover effect all the people living in relative comfort in Paris and etc.