Ethical Question of the Future: Employment verses Automation

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Beowulf
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Post by Beowulf »

AdmiralKanos wrote:The social safety nets that were created and that right-wingers are now intent on destroying were supposed to prevent a recurrence of the Great Depression.
Huh? The reason for them is so that when the depression actually does hit, you don't have millions of people starving. Government spending in that way can't prevent a depression, because all that will do is destroy wealth.
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Post by Joe »

The social safety nets that were created and that right-wingers are now intent on destroying were supposed to prevent a recurrence of the Great Depression.
"Right-wingers" don't need to destroy Social Security. It's already destroying itself quite nicely. And safety nets probably won't prevent another Great Depression, sound monetary and to a lesser degree fiscal policy will do that.
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AdmiralKanos
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Post by AdmiralKanos »

Beowulf wrote:
AdmiralKanos wrote:The social safety nets that were created and that right-wingers are now intent on destroying were supposed to prevent a recurrence of the Great Depression.
Huh? The reason for them is so that when the depression actually does hit, you don't have millions of people starving. Government spending in that way can't prevent a depression, because all that will do is destroy wealth.
Sorry, I should have been more clear. The social safety net was supposed to prevent a recurrence of the massive social problems that accompanied the Great Depression, rather than preventing economic recessions themselves.
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AdmiralKanos
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Post by AdmiralKanos »

Durran Korr wrote:"Right-wingers" don't need to destroy Social Security. It's already destroying itself quite nicely.
How is it destroying itself? I am unfamiliar with the welfare system in the United States. Is it as horribly conceived as your medical system, with its skyrocketing costs and rampant corruption?
And safety nets probably won't prevent another Great Depression, sound monetary and to a lesser degree fiscal policy will do that.
Social safety nets are an insurance policy, for those of us who lack your faith in the inerrant wisdom of the people in charge or your disregard for the people who find themselves in dire straits, even if it is arguably their own fault.
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Post by Joe »

How is it destroying itself? I am unfamiliar with the welfare system in the United States. Is it as horribly conceived as your medical system, with its skyrocketing costs and rampant corruption?
The Social Security trust fund has no real assets, just a bunch of IOUs that aren't even recorded as normal liabilities of the U.S. government. Politicians siphon off billions of dollars a year to pay for their stupid bullshit and don't bother with paying it back. It is this practice which allows the government to report the imaginary budget surpluses that we heard about in the late Clinton years and during the 2000 election season.
Social safety nets are an insurance policy, for those of us who lack your faith in the inerrant wisdom of the people in charge or your disregard for the people who find themselves in dire straits, even if it is arguably their own fault.
Again, all the safety nets in the world will not prevent another depression if the government is practicing bad policy.

And why can't I oppose massive, nationwide Ponzi schemes without being either utopian or heartless? Christ, it's a bad system and it's not going to be solvent by the time I want to retire. The fact that it includes the word "security" is laughable. If someone was running a scheme like social security in the private sector they'd throw his ass in jail.
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Post by Darth Wong »

Durran Korr wrote:The Social Security trust fund has no real assets, just a bunch of IOUs that aren't even recorded as normal liabilities of the U.S. government. Politicians siphon off billions of dollars a year to pay for their stupid bullshit and don't bother with paying it back. It is this practice which allows the government to report the imaginary budget surpluses that we heard about in the late Clinton years and during the 2000 election season.
Why does it need a trust fund? Can't welfare simply be paid out of each year's budget? Nobody's going to just sit on a huge national "rainy day" fund forever, so the dipping is not unexpected.
Again, all the safety nets in the world will not prevent another depression if the government is practicing bad policy.
Agreed. But that doesn't mean the safety net has no purpose, since it was never intended to prevent recessions.
And why can't I oppose massive, nationwide Ponzi schemes without being either utopian or heartless? Christ, it's a bad system and it's not going to be solvent by the time I want to retire. The fact that it includes the word "security" is laughable. If someone was running a scheme like social security in the private sector they'd throw his ass in jail.
The mismanagement of your particular implementation does not mean that social safety nets are an inherently bad idea.
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Post by JodoForce »

AdmiralKanos wrote: *snip*
You're ignoring the fact that the number of jobs for ANY skill level is limited. Even if the whole population were qualified for the maintanence jobs, that doesn't mean the factories will hire the whole population! Instead, what would happen is that competition for the maintanence jobs will become unbelievably fierce and those who get the job, get it by promising to work for a dime a day and a song.
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Post by Darth Wong »

JodoForce wrote:You're ignoring the fact that the number of jobs for ANY skill level is limited. Even if the whole population were qualified for the maintanence jobs, that doesn't mean the factories will hire the whole population! Instead, what would happen is that competition for the maintanence jobs will become unbelievably fierce and those who get the job, get it by promising to work for a dime a day and a song.
Then you shouldn't acquire a skill that is too common. Duh. The labour market functions on supply/demand just like any other market; this is not news.
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Post by JodoForce »

Your proof that the skilled labor market as a whole would not be saturated if everybody became skilled?
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Post by Darth Wong »

JodoForce wrote:Your proof that the skilled labor market as a whole would not be saturated if everybody became skilled?
Hint: there is more than one type of skill. Think about it.
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"It's not evil for God to do it. Or for someone to do it at God's command."- Jonathan Boyd on baby-killing

"you guys are fascinated with the use of those "rules of logic" to the extent that you don't really want to discussus anything."- GC

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JodoForce
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Post by JodoForce »

I know :roll:

Well, say the number of university graduates for every subject doubles all of a sudden. Are they all going to find jobs? Are their jobs going to be as well-paid as when there were only half the number of graduates?
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Post by Darth Wong »

JodoForce wrote:I know :roll:

Well, say the number of university graduates for every subject doubles all of a sudden. Are they all going to find jobs? Are their jobs going to be as well-paid as when there were only half the number of graduates?
Obviously not. What's your point, since this is an obscenely unrealistic scenario? You are trying to predict collapse of skilled-labour salaries as a result of automation, but the use of such a bizarre overnight-change scenario as this doesn't help you case other than to show that you're desperate to save a point.

Realistically, the type and mixture of skills demanded by the labour market is constantly changing, as is the type and mixture of skills produced. What we consider "unskilled labour" today was actually skilled labour 200 years ago; even the most pathetic unskilled labourer today, such as a McDonald's clerk, knows how to read, write, operate a computer, and operate numerous other mechanical devices.

In the future, job skills will continue to change; the division between unskilled labour and skilled labour is relative. Even an unskilled labourer still requires some abilities, otherwise he would be useless. It is only a question of how much, and a future job market's unskilled labourers would probably be more skilled than today's drones.
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"It's not evil for God to do it. Or for someone to do it at God's command."- Jonathan Boyd on baby-killing

"you guys are fascinated with the use of those "rules of logic" to the extent that you don't really want to discussus anything."- GC

"I do not believe Russian Roulette is a stupid act" - Embracer of Darkness

"Viagra commercials appear to save lives" - tharkûn on US health care.

http://www.stardestroyer.net/Mike/RantMode/Blurbs.html
JodoForce
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Post by JodoForce »

As automation increases the production / employment ratio is going to increase, ie. more production for the same number of people employed. The total amount of production is not, and SHOULD NOT, go up forever--there will be limits in the amount of material goods and other services that people desire, and even if there weren't, there are limits to the rate of extraction of raw materials that Nature can withstand.

Hence in the future the machine-operated industries will not be big enough to employ everyone to maintain / manage them.
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