Spence, bear in mind that there's a big difference between a missile that needs to get within 5 km to kill you (i.e., a largish nuclear warhead in space with a spherical burst against an armored target) and one that needs to get within, say, 500 km (because all the energy of the same warhead is being focused into a cone about 30 degrees wide and pointed straight down your throat).
Among other things, such a missile can do cunning tricks like "pretend to miss due to your BRILLIANT ELECTRONIC WARFARES, get ignored by your point defense, then pivot and shoot you in the flank." Or at least present point defense with a crossing target that is a whole new dimension in "hard to hit."
Hey Skimmer, is there a practical difference between "bomb pumped X-ray laser" and "nuclear shaped charge?" As far as I can tell they're different symbols with the same referent...
mrtspence wrote:It's my understanding that mirror armour is entirely impossible. Aside from the logistical issues (keeping it clean/intact), the physics just don't work.
I think it would be pretty easy to spot a cruise missile. The thing being looked for is the heat and light emitted by its engine--which will stand out against the cold black of space no matter how the missile is painted!
You misunderstood. It is
coasting; it's got no visible engine flare. The idea is to launch (using a first-stage rocket or a static mass driver) then let the missile coast a huge distance, then fire up its engine for maneuvers to steer it onto a target. It'll have to spot the target independently of course, which is an obstacle, but one we're already learning to deal with in the present day. Missile guidance with 2100-level hardware and software is going to be preeeetty fucking good, I suspect.
Sea Skimmer wrote:The real problem with long range missile attacks is finding the target at the end. No actual reason exists why planetary defenses have to be static. You could build a giant radar array out of multistatic airships for example, fire interceptor missiles from ships ect. The faster the incoming missile travels the harder target acquisition and course adjustment becomes to the point it will be near impossible at fractions of light speed.
I'm thinking in terms of closing speeds of ~3-30 km/s, plausible for 'hard SF' technology from a reasonable launcher (either a boost stage or an orbiting mass driver). And yes, planetary defenses can be made mobile. But there will be enough significant targets which are fixed (i.e. industrial complexes and big honking space stations) that this would be an effective attack under the right conditions.
And I'm not saying it's a beat-all tactic, just that it's conceivable and that thinking about it is good because it stretches our sense of the possible.
mrtspence wrote:Missiles seem like amazing weapons as long as the target has no point defense. They seem to get prohibitively expensive and heavy as the target gets more point defense abilities...
Beam weapons seem incredibly deadly at close ranges... They get a lot worse over ranges where the beam spreads and loses its punch and where the target can maneuver to make it so that your beam cannot get through the armour quickly...
These are real limitations I consider in my own estimates. The main problem is that they can be eternally handwaved or argued back and forth- you can't say "missile beats laser," because which is better depends on the quality of undefined missile, laser, and defensive technologies.
I don't see particle beams as a great weapon. A few feet of (relatively) light paraffin wax just over the crew compartments or sensitive electronics would, in combination with the armour that would likely already be present on a warship, make a particle beam pretty weak.
A sufficiently powerful beam weapon could just melt off the wax. We're not talking 'glorified cosmic rays' here.
They would also have insanely short ranges. Even neutral particle beams have trouble staying cohesive. They would also suffer from a lot of the inefficiency problems that a laser would. A laser seems like a way deadlier and more effective weapon.
Depends. Particle beam cohesion is calculable- I'm too lazy to do the calculations but know the equations. A lot depends on the parameters of the weapon itself- you can MAKE things work if you make certain assumptions, but not without them.
Kinetic weapons don't have to worry about distance as far as hitting hard goes--just hitting in the first place. They would obviously get less accurate over distances. However, the target is probably moving really fast and would likely not be able to maneuver well, so it may not actually be that hard to hit them with a few shots covering its potential locations. It would entirely depend on the target.
Target velocity is irrelevant. Target acceleration matters. The real problem is... how do I explain?
Assume a ship with a given target profile- width X. Assume that it has 'lateral' acceleration A: that it can start accelerating at right angles to your line of fire at that acceleration. Now let it start jiggling around at random. How long will it take to sidestep by a distance equal to, say, four times its own width?
If the target can dodge by four times its own length in the time it takes your bullets to arrive, your odds of hitting with one shot are pretty slim. Because if it's dodging randomly, when your bullet arrives it could be ANYWHERE in a circle (or ellipse) that has an area sixteen times the size of the ship's own target area. Even with perfect information on its current position, and perfect aim you have a 1/16 chance of hitting.
Now, double the range. You've just doubled the time the target has to dodge, given fixed muzzle velocity. But since x=(1/2)*a*t^2 for constant acceleration, doubling the dodge time means the ship can travel
four times as far on a fixed acceleration. The radius of that circle just got four times larger... so its area got 16 times larger. Now the target could be anywhere in a circle 256 times larger than its own area. Still assuming you have perfect vision and marksmanship, your chance of hitting just dropped to 1 in 256. Another doubling of the range and it drops to 1 in 4096- you're probably better off not even bothering to shoot.
The exact effective range obviously depends on the target's size, your muzzle velocity, and its acceleration. But you can see that this effect is very unfavorable. Basically, the number of shots you have to fire to score one hit increases
with the fourth power of the range to the target, once you get far enough away that evasion is a real factor... however far that is.