A fundie's wager

[Lagmonster]

This is part of a debate I am carrying on; near to the end, he throws his hands up and offers me this in an attempt to psych me out. I already know it's horseshit, and am fairly sure what I'm going to say in response, but thought you all might find this amusing, since it goes way out on a limb to find irrelevant statistics to bank on. Still, there may be some way to re-propose the bet to make a buck or two out of him:

Lagmonster, let's make a bet. I'll bet you every cent I've ever made, and everything I've ever owned, that the human body had a designer. Before you bet against me, let's look at the odds: a chemist has calculated the immense odds against amino acids ever combining to form the necessary proteins by undirected means. He estimated the probability to be more than 10 to the 67th to 1 (1067:1) against even a small protein forming – by time and chance, in an ideal mixture of chemicals, in an ideal atmosphere, and given up to 100 billion years (an age 10 to 20 times greater than the supposed age of the Earth). Mathematicians generally agree that, statistically, any odds beyond 1 in 10 to the 50th (1:1050) have a zero probability of ever happening ("and even that gives it the benefit of the doubt!").

Interested? Of course, we won't be able to settle the bet until we face God.

[Zoink]

a chemist has calculated the immense odds against amino acids ever combining to form the necessary proteins by undirected means. He estimated the probability to be more than 10 to the 67th to 1 (1067:1) against even a small protein forming – by time and chance, in an ideal mixture of chemicals, in an ideal atmosphere, and given up to 100 billion years (an age 10 to 20 times greater than the supposed age of the Earth). Mathematicians generally agree that, statistically, any odds beyond 1 in 10 to the 50th (1:1050) have a zero probability of ever happening ("and even that gives it the benefit of the doubt!").

Very, very, very easy to win.

Agree to the term 1067:1 for the chance of life developing on an earth. (this number has no real basis for being true, but the important concept is that there is a one in *something* chance)

Agree that a 1 in 1067 chance makes life developing randomly unlikely.... if this only happened once (ie. one role of the dice).

However, if there at least 1067 other earth-like planets somewhere in the universe, then the chance of this happening in the universe suddenly becomes likely. (ie. role the dice 1067 times)

Add that since WE are the result of this roling of the dice... we would by definition be that "winning" planet.

Your friend might point out that you can't prove there is at least 1067 planets. Counter that you don't have to, he is the one proving that God exists so HE must therefore prove that these planets can't exist for his "proof" to be valid. IE. HE HAS NOT PROVEN HIS POINT.

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A real life example: Find a name of a lottery winner. Find out what the odds of that guy winning the lottery was. Ask your friend if this means that the guy didn't win the lottery.

[Darth Wong]

Actually it's 10^67, which is an enormous number.

However, it also assumes chemical reactions are completely random, which you can disprove with any high school chemistry textbook or simple experiment such as hydrogen combustion.

[neoolong]

Lagmonster, let's make a bet. I'll bet you every cent I've ever made, and everything I've ever owned, that the human body had a designer. Before you bet against me, let's look at the odds: a chemist has calculated the immense odds against amino acids ever combining to form the necessary proteins by undirected means. He estimated the probability to be more than 10 to the 67th to 1 (1067:1) against even a small protein forming – by time and chance, in an ideal mixture of chemicals, in an ideal atmosphere, and given up to 100 billion years (an age 10 to 20 times greater than the supposed age of the Earth).

Well, it's a good thing that the process isn't completely random and is in fact deterministic. Thus, throwing that ratio out the window.

Mathematicians generally agree that, statistically, any odds beyond 1 in 10 to the 50th (1:1050) have a zero probability of ever happening ("and even that gives it the benefit of the doubt!").

Only if you are an idiot. Aside from the fact that the number is wrong, if there is a chance of something happening, the probability is never zero. The 1:10^50 is the probability. It doesn't magically change to zero.

Interested? Of course, we won't be able to settle the bet until we face God.

I have a better idea. You just prove that he exists first. Let alone that he did jack.

[Wicked Pilot]

I think that possible discoveries from Cassini and Huygens may make you a rich man.

[Durandal]

OK, so the odds are 1 in 10^67. The universe is infinite. Therefore, it was bound to happen somewhere, sometime. Ergo, us.

This ignoring the fact that chemical reactions follow specific rules.

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

This guy forgot one thing: chemical reactions aren't random as he's insiting. That's why we don't see H9O, or C2O853.