How dependent are we on satellites?

[Darth Hoth]

Let us suppose that an alien invasion force enters orbit, destroying all our various artificial satellites. How crippled will the civil and military infrastructure of Earth be? What effects will there be on the economy? Will there be major differences between how affected, say, the USA, Germany, or Russia are?

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Let us suppose that an alien invasion force enters orbit, destroying all our various artificial satellites. How crippled will the civil and military infrastructure of Earth be? What effects will there be on the economy? Will there be major differences between how affected, say, the USA, Germany, or Russia are?

We are very dependent on satellites. Which is why everyone in the space industry keeps a very nervous eye on the Sun every Solar Maximum, when sunspot and flare activity are at their highest, especially since we know that the Sun can and has produced solar flares at least four times more powerful than the worst-case scenario orbiting satellites are currently designed to withstand.

Such a storm hit in 1859, and was strong enough to deliver serious electrical shocks to telegraph operators and produced aurora powerful enough to read by, and caused loggers to break camp, thinking dawn was approaching.

If the satellite network goes down, you would lose the following things:
A) Satellite communications. Farewell all broadcast television . . . your local TV station gets nearly all its content from satellite, as does your cable company. A lot of telephone traffic is routed via satellite, especially to the more remote areas of the world. A lot of military communications also go by satellite.

B) Weather forecasting and monitoring. The science of meteorology regresses nearly sixty years overnight. People go back to predicting the arrival of hurricanes in a way Christopher Columbus would've been familiar with. (He looked for what we now know are the high-level outflow clouds and the cloudiness that heralds the approach of the first rain-bands. This is no more than, perhaps, twelve hours notice.)

C) Precision guided munitions. The original purpose of the GPS system was to provide a way of guiding weapons onto target. Without it, you're stuck with less-precise methods of weapons guidance.

The first two have obvious effects on the economy. Without precise weather monitoring, many more people would be killed by severe weather events. Economic losses due to short-term climate shifts are greater with the loss of precision in climactic guidance. The entertainment and advertising industries take a severe beating, and that will only ripple out into the greater economy.

[Superman]

I listen to Howard Stern almost daily, so I'm very dependent.

[Sea Skimmer]

If the satellite network goes down, you would lose the following things: Satellite communications. Farewell all broadcast television . . . your local TV station gets nearly all its content from satellite, as does your cable company. A lot of telephone traffic is routed via satellite, especially to the more remote areas of the world. A lot of military communications also go by satellite.

That’s the big loss, but TV at least can be rerouted to go via the internet, and companies can also just accept having less flexibility in changing schedules, more emphasis on storing programs close to the broadcast towers. The military loss will be the hardest to overcome, but we used to use tropospheric scatter radio and we’d just have to go back to it and accept the limitations as an interim measure. The military also already can and does use the internet for low priority stuff like logistics orders, that use would increase as an interim measure.

B) Weather forecasting and monitoring. The science of meteorology regresses nearly sixty years overnight. People go back to predicting the arrival of hurricanes in a way Christopher Columbus would've been familiar with. (He looked for what we now know are the high-level outflow clouds and the cloudiness that heralds the approach of the first rain-bands. This is no more than, perhaps, twelve hours notice.)

Hardly, computers matter more then the satellites, and have you ever even heard of hurricane hunters? Specialized aircraft loaded with sensors that fly out into the storms and collect data more directly then satellites ever could. We do not need a satellite to see a 300 mile wide storm coming, and even in the absence of the specialized weather reconnaissance aircraft we already have much of the world covered by ground based weather radars anyway. The lack of satellite overheads would be annoying, but we’d start spamming more and more weather planes in days.

C) Precision guided munitions. The original purpose of the GPS system was to provide a way of guiding weapons onto target. Without it, you're stuck with less-precise methods of weapons guidance.

GPS is much less accurate then other guidance methods, CEPs of about 5-15 meters instead of less then 1 meter for laser or electro-optical guidance; the real advantage of GPS is that it works in all weather and the guidance kits are cheap. However GPS guided weapons would still work to a degree, because they are actually guided by INS which is only GPS updated. If the launch aircraft can use its radar to lock onto a terrain feature to obtain a position fix for its INS, which is fed to the weapons INS before release. The CEP will be much higher then normal, but still better then iron bombing.

Anyway if we lose all the satellites, expect governments around the world to seize control of private space launch boosters already existing or in production so we can start orbiting new vital communications and weather satellites as quickly as possible. Restoring GPS fully is going to take at least a decade, but we could have partial coverage back up in 1-2 years. Overall satellites are important for our modern standard of living, but mostly they affect convenience of life, most satellites are not providing any sort of irreplaceable vital service.

One major issue though is just what happens to the old satellites. If the aliens blew them all out orbits would be so filled with debris we may have series problems with our new satellites hitting stuff and being destroyed.

[Zixinus]

How dependent are the world's nuclear nations on satellites for the military stratagem? Because if the satellites tip the scales enough, I smell a war coming.

[General Zod]

How dependent are the world's nuclear nations on satellites for the military stratagem? Because if the satellites tip the scales enough, I smell a war coming.

Without satellites you lose a significant deal of military capability, including making tracking vehicles and keeping tabs on your troops significantly more difficult. Also, good luck launching ICBMs without them.

[Glass Pearl Player]

Restoring GPS fully is going to take at least a decade, but we could have partial coverage back up in 1-2 years.

Why so long? AFAIK, GPS consists of "only" 24 satellites total, with no fancy equipment save a high quality atomic clock that nowadays can be as small as you want. The only problems I can see is that you need a strong transmitter so that a small receiver gets a good signal 20000 km below, and that the production of new satellites needs some ramp-up time. However, for a stopgap system, smaller sats in lower orbits might work too.
If you're really desperate for some satellite navigation, there are other systems like TRANSIT/NNSS and CIKADA, that need only a handful of satellites in orbit. If you don't even have launch capacity for that, one can always fall back to ground based navigation (VOR, LORAN, DECCA, OMEGA) or INS.

How dependent are the world's nuclear nations on satellites for the military stratagem? Because if the satellites tip the scales enough, I smell a war coming.

Those who know, probably can't tell Three main uses for satellites are communication, navigation and reconnaisance. Loss of GPS will hurt ground troops in featureless terrain - maybe Iraq and Saudi Arabia? Sat recon can be partially compensated by specialized aircraft - but they can be shot down. Communication is IMHO the real killer. Moonbounce and tropospheric scatter can be somewhat unreliable, and might need special equipment.

[General Zod]

Why so long? AFAIK, GPS consists of "only" 24 satellites total, with no fancy equipment save a high quality atomic clock that nowadays can be as small as you want. The only problems I can see is that you need a strong transmitter so that a small receiver gets a good signal 20000 km below, and that the production of new satellites needs some ramp-up time. However, for a stopgap system, smaller sats in lower orbits might work too.

Ignoring the fact that virtually every satellite is custom built to some extent, you have only a limited number of craft, not to mention knowledgeable personnel capable of actually deploying them. So in addition to the waiting time for getting the new satellites made, you'll have limited windows of launch opportunities to put them in orbit.

[Ariphaos]

One major issue though is just what happens to the old satellites. If the aliens blew them all out orbits would be so filled with debris we may have series problems with our new satellites hitting stuff and being destroyed.

I'm a fan of the laser broom method of debris clearing, myself.

[Sea Skimmer]

Why so long? AFAIK, GPS consists of "only" 24 satellites total, with no fancy equipment save a high quality atomic clock that nowadays can be as small as you want.

Its a lot more then just one atomic clock (four in fact) goes into those satellites and little of it is an off the shelf item. 10 years might be an overestimate but overall GPS is a lower priority then communications, reconnaissance and early warning. You pointed out yourself all the other things that can be used in the interim.

Even if we can produce the GPS satellites the real wall is limited rocket booster production, and production will be slow to ramp up. I suppose we might be able to get around this if someone would just sell us a dozen large booster rockets, but that’s going to be expensive as hell to arrange.

Communication is IMHO the real killer. Moonbounce and tropospheric scatter can be somewhat unreliable, and might need special equipment.

Yes communications and ballistic missile early warning (only takes a few sats) will be the number priorities. Troposphere scatter does take specialized antennas however most world militaries still have and use them including the US Army and Marines. As important as satellite communications are they’ve never provided anything like enough bandwidth for all needs.

Reliable range is affected atmospheric conditions, but you can make up for that by having a chain of repeater stations like NATO ACE High.

I'm a fan of the laser broom method of debris clearing, myself.

Yes, but while that’s practical for the ISS, it would easily double the size and thus launch costs of many other satellites, and making the laser system work reliably umanned for years until an orbit is fully cleared would be a pain. The planned laser broom for ISS also has the advantage of the stations low draggy orbit. That drag will already bring down many pieces of debris on its own, particularly the big hard to vaporize ones.

[phongn]

Without satellites you lose a significant deal of military capability, including making tracking vehicles and keeping tabs on your troops significantly more difficult. Also, good luck launching ICBMs without them.

Satellites are not necessary for ICBM launch, and we can reactivate the old ELF transmitters for the SSBNs if need be. A lot of the capability you claim are satellite-based are also not (tracking vehicles, tabs on troops) can be done via aircraft and then important data sent via wireline or backscatter.

Ignoring the fact that virtually every satellite is custom built to some extent, you have only a limited number of craft, not to mention knowledgeable personnel capable of actually deploying them. So in addition to the waiting time for getting the new satellites made, you'll have limited windows of launch opportunities to put them in orbit.

IIRC, the GPS satellites are pretty much production-line assembled (most large constellations are for economy of scale).

How dependent are the world's nuclear nations on satellites for the military stratagem? Because if the satellites tip the scales enough, I smell a war coming.

Between what powers, for what gain and risk?

I'm a fan of the laser broom method of debris clearing, myself.

With what laser?

[Broomstick]

Those who know, probably can't tell Three main uses for satellites are communication, navigation and reconnaisance.

Satellite navigation is great and wonderful and accurate and convenient. However, not just one but at least THREE prior systems of navigation used prior to GPS are still operational. Navigational systems other than GPS are still taught and used at all levels of aviation, and I know the military radio nav beacons are still up and running because in the US the civilian pilots have (limited) use of the military beacons.

Wait 10 or 20 years, though and it might be a different story.

However, map/compass/sextant will never cease to work (well, compass might be a problem if the poles flip) and mankind circumnavigated the world with that set of techniques. Nor will satellite-generated maps and photos disappear even if the satellites do, and just having accurate maps is a big plus.

So... for navigation it will be inconvenient and probably some refresh/retraining will be required in some instances but after a few weeks (at most) of disruption things will get back to normal.

Loss of GPS will hurt ground troops in featureless terrain - maybe Iraq and Saudi Arabia?

Navigation won't be quite so easy for that, no, but again we will still have accurate maps and all the old techniques will still work.

Weather prediction will take a hit. Not so much for ordinary folks, but aviation relies a LOT on satellite-based weather information. We can work without it, but there will be many more delays, more diversions due to weather... it will be inconvenient and harder to keep our transportation machines out of harm's way but we'll set get things and people from point A to point B.

I agree that communications will take the biggest hit. People are just so used to real-time images from everywhere but we'll be back to the situation I remembers from the early 1970's where live images from across an ocean were a rarity.

[Superman]

Not to go too far off topic, but I wonder how a company goes about getting the government's permission to launch a satellite. Since many companies use them, like satellite radio, I would wonder what they had to do (if anything) to get their equipment into orbit. Get some kind of satellite operations permit?

[andrewgpaul]

I would have thought the tricky bit would be getting the thing launched. After that, I don't think governments can regulate satellites, can they? Apart from threatening to shoot them down, I suppose.

[Superman]

I would have thought the tricky bit would be getting the thing launched. After that, I don't think governments can regulate satellites, can they? Apart from threatening to shoot them down, I suppose.

That's a good question. SiriusXM Satellite Radio, for example, is a publicly traded company that relies on it's satellite to bring service to its customers. I don't see how the government could regulate its satellite, unless there's some specific law which addresses that.

[Broomstick]

You need to get a launch authorization of some sort from the FAA - that's at least partly a safety consideration, so they can warn off aircraft from the region for obvious reasons. Hell, model rockets that go over a certain height have to get permission from the FAA. So at the very least you need that, although it's not that big a deal. One need merely inquire and they'll let you know what information they need and the pertinent regulations.

I would not be surprised, however, if other permissions are required.

[Ariphaos]

With what laser?

Make one. Faced with the prospect of a multi-year redeployment facing decades of delays otherwise, there will certainly be situations where spending a fraction of a billion on a sufficiently capable laser system will look attractive.

[General Zod]

Satellites are not necessary for ICBM launch, and we can reactivate the old ELF transmitters for the SSBNs if need be. A lot of the capability you claim are satellite-based are also not (tracking vehicles, tabs on troops) can be done via aircraft and then important data sent via wireline or backscatter.

I suppose they could be done via aircraft, but it seems that it would be grossly inefficient compared to satellite tracking and coordinate systems.

IIRC, the GPS satellites are pretty much production-line assembled (most large constellations are for economy of scale).

Ah, I wasn't sure how standardized satellites were. But I suppose the production time would then depend on things like component availability and such.

[Broomstick]

Satellites are not necessary for ICBM launch, and we can reactivate the old ELF transmitters for the SSBNs if need be. A lot of the capability you claim are satellite-based are also not (tracking vehicles, tabs on troops) can be done via aircraft and then important data sent via wireline or backscatter.

I suppose they could be done via aircraft, but it seems that it would be grossly inefficient compared to satellite tracking and coordinate systems.

There are solar and/or fuel cell powered high-altitude aircraft in development that can "loiter" for days over a given location, and one of the proposed uses is as a communications relay that can either substitute or replace a satellite. If all the comm sats were knocked down I'd expect to see a sudden interest in this system.

[PeZook]

Not to go too far off topic, but I wonder how a company goes about getting the government's permission to launch a satellite. Since many companies use them, like satellite radio, I would wonder what they had to do (if anything) to get their equipment into orbit. Get some kind of satellite operations permit?

As far as I know, you buy a satellite, contract a launch company, get a permit from a relevant government authority that deals with airspace, do a crapload of organizational work getting it ready and launch.

Though orbital spots are limited...I wonder how geostationary slots are assigned..

[Sea Skimmer]

I would have thought the tricky bit would be getting the thing launched. After that, I don't think governments can regulate satellites, can they? Apart from threatening to shoot them down, I suppose.

Actually they could just drive up to the ground control station and order the satellite shutdown. Refuse and everyone gets arrested and charged with some major felonies, and then the USAF will use its own control networks to find a way to electronically shut the thing off anyway.

That's a good question. SiriusXM Satellite Radio, for example, is a publicly traded company that relies on it's satellite to bring service to its customers. I don't see how the government could regulate its satellite, unless there's some specific law which addresses that.

Through a series of international treaties, the entire radio spectrum is divided up, while some frequencies are reserved for various international and civil purposes, anything that’s highly useful is tightly regulated. That means if you want to orbit a satellite radio satellite, you need to get a license to use the frequencies it will broadcast on, and you need a license to use the frequencies you need to send control signals to the bird. As far as I’m aware in the US the act of orbiting and owning a satellite does not require a permit, but the only ways you could launch said satellite into orbit, firing off a big rocket, be it land, sea or air launched, does require one.

[Kanastrous]

Moonbounce and tropospheric scatter can be somewhat unreliable, and might need special equipment.

TRSSCOM was a US Navy moon-bounce communications program.

It wasn't particularly efficient.

[Count Chocula]

I submit that if, as Darth Hoth asked, "an alien invasion force enters orbit, destroying all our various artificial satellites[,]" we would have much more severe issues to contend with than network programming, SLAM or Tomahawk accuracy, phone calls to Aunt Millie, or finding that secret fishin' spot with our Garmins.

My guess is the number one topic on most people's minds would be - ummm - survival. If, to expand on the topic, we were able to fight back to some extent, we have enough weapons systems with inertial guidance to get the job done. If we're not killed from orbit.