Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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University of California: Santa Cruz wrote:
A team of planet hunters led by astronomers at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and the Carnegie Institution of Washington has announced the discovery of an Earth-size planet (three times the mass of Earth) orbiting a nearby star at a distance that places it squarely in the middle of the star's "habitable zone," where liquid water could exist on the planet's surface. If confirmed, this would be the most Earth-like exoplanet yet discovered and the first strong case for a potentially habitable one.

To astronomers, a "potentially habitable" planet is one that could sustain life, not necessarily one that humans would consider a nice place to live. Habitability depends on many factors, but liquid water and an atmosphere are among the most important.

"Our findings offer a very compelling case for a potentially habitable planet," said Steven Vogt, professor of astronomy and astrophysics at UC Santa Cruz. "The fact that we were able to detect this planet so quickly and so nearby tells us that planets like this must be really common."

The findings are based on 11 years of observations at the W. M. Keck Observatory in Hawaii. "Advanced techniques combined with old-fashioned ground-based telescopes continue to lead the exoplanet revolution," said Paul Butler of the Carnegie Institution. "Our ability to find potentially habitable worlds is now limited only by our telescope time."

Vogt and Butler lead the Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey. The team's new findings are reported in a paper to be published in the Astrophysical Journal and posted online at arXiv.org. Coauthors include associate research scientist Eugenio Rivera of UC Santa Cruz; associate astronomer Nader Haghighipour of the University of Hawaii-Manoa; and research scientists Gregory Henry and Michael Williamson of Tennessee State University.

The paper reports the discovery of two new planets around the nearby red dwarf star Gliese 581. This brings the total number of known planets around this star to six, the most yet discovered in a planetary system other than our own solar system. Like our solar system, the planets around Gliese 581 have nearly circular orbits.

The most interesting of the two new planets is Gliese 581g, with a mass three to four times that of the Earth and an orbital period of just under 37 days. Its mass indicates that it is probably a rocky planet with a definite surface and that it has enough gravity to hold on to an atmosphere, according to Vogt.

Gliese 581, located 20 light years away from Earth in the constellation Libra, has a somewhat checkered history of habitable-planet claims. Two previously detected planets in the system lie at the edges of the habitable zone, one on the hot side (planet c) and one on the cold side (planet d). While some astronomers still think planet d may be habitable if it has a thick atmosphere with a strong greenhouse effect to warm it up, others are skeptical. The newly discovered planet g, however, lies right in the middle of the habitable zone.

"We had planets on both sides of the habitable zone--one too hot and one too cold--and now we have one in the middle that's just right," Vogt said.

The planet is tidally locked to the star, meaning that one side is always facing the star and basking in perpetual daylight, while the side facing away from the star is in perpetual darkness. One effect of this is to stabilize the planet's surface climates, according to Vogt. The most habitable zone on the planet's surface would be the line between shadow and light (known as the "terminator"), with surface temperatures decreasing toward the dark side and increasing toward the light side.

"Any emerging life forms would have a wide range of stable climates to choose from and to evolve around, depending on their longitude," Vogt said.

The researchers estimate that the average surface temperature of the planet is between -24 and 10 degrees Fahrenheit (-31 to -12 degrees Celsius). Actual temperatures would range from blazing hot on the side facing the star to freezing cold on the dark side.

If Gliese 581g has a rocky composition similar to the Earth's, its diameter would be about 1.2 to 1.4 times that of the Earth. The surface gravity would be about the same or slightly higher than Earth's, so that a person could easily walk upright on the planet, Vogt said.

The new findings are based on 11 years of observations of Gliese 581 using the HIRES spectrometer (designed by Vogt) on the Keck I Telescope at the W. M. Keck Observatory in Hawaii. The spectrometer allows precise measurements of a star's radial velocity (its motion along the line of sight from Earth), which can reveal the presence of planets. The gravitational tug of an orbiting planet causes periodic changes in the radial velocity of the host star. Multiple planets induce complex wobbles in the star's motion, and astronomers use sophisticated analyses to detect planets and determine their orbits and masses.

"It's really hard to detect a planet like this," Vogt said. "Every time we measure the radial velocity, that's an evening on the telescope, and it took more than 200 observations with a precision of about 1.6 meters per second to detect this planet."

To get that many radial velocity measurements (238 in total), Vogt's team combined their HIRES observations with published data from another group led by the Geneva Observatory (HARPS, the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planetary Search project).

In addition to the radial velocity observations, coauthors Henry and Williamson made precise night-to-night brightness measurements of the star with one of Tennessee State University's robotic telescopes. "Our brightness measurements verify that the radial velocity variations are caused by the new orbiting planet and not by any process within the star itself," Henry said.

The researchers also explored the implications of this discovery with respect to the number of stars that are likely to have at least one potentially habitable planet. Given the relatively small number of stars that have been carefully monitored by planet hunters, this discovery has come surprisingly soon.

"If these are rare, we shouldn't have found one so quickly and so nearby," Vogt said. "The number of systems with potentially habitable planets is probably on the order of 10 or 20 percent, and when you multiply that by the hundreds of billions of stars in the Milky Way, that's a large number. There could be tens of billions of these systems in our galaxy."

This research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and NASA.
The Good News: It is apparently sitting smack in the area where temperatures would be right for liquid water, etc. It's also only 3 times the mass of Earth.

The Bad News: It's tidally locked.

Either way, the Gliese 581 system seems to be turning up plenty of good surprises. This planet makes six so far in its solar system.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Guardsman Bass wrote:The Good News: It is apparently sitting smack in the area where temperatures would be right for liquid water, etc. It's also only 3 times the mass of Earth.

The Bad News: It's tidally locked.
That's not so bad. A planet like that may well have high-velocity superrotating winds in the upper atmosphere, like Venus, to assist in atmospheric heat transport. It's also a big planet, so it will be holding onto a lot of atmosphere. It may also have circulating oceans to move heat from one side of the planet to the other.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
Guardsman Bass wrote:The Good News: It is apparently sitting smack in the area where temperatures would be right for liquid water, etc. It's also only 3 times the mass of Earth.

The Bad News: It's tidally locked.
That's not so bad. A planet like that may well have high-velocity superrotating winds in the upper atmosphere, like Venus, to assist in atmospheric heat transport. It's also a big planet, so it will be holding onto a lot of atmosphere. It may also have circulating oceans to move heat from one side of the planet to the other.
That's what I'm hoping for, as well.

National Geographic actually did a documentary exploring what a red dwarf world might be like. It was rather interesting, with a permanent ice cap on the "dark side", and a never-ending hurricane centered around the point closest to the star on the "sunward side".
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Goldilocks planet found

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From Reuters via Yahoo news.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – It is not too hot and not too cold, and astronomers believe that a new planet detected outside our solar system may have a temperature that is just right to support life.

The planet orbits a red dwarf star called Gliese 581 and appears to be three times the mass of the Earth, the team at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and the Carnegie Institution of Washington said on Wednesday.

The team found it using indirect measurements from the Keck telescope in Hawaii, which has been used to scrutinize Gliese 581 for 11 years and has spotted other potential planets orbiting it.

"We had planets on both sides of the habitable zone -- one too hot and one too cold -- and now we have one in the middle that's just right," said Steven Vogt of UC Santa Cruz.

"The fact that we were able to detect this planet so quickly and so nearby tells us that planets like this must be really common," Vogt said in a statement.

The planet, called Gliese 581g, is 20 light-years away from Earth in the constellation Libra, according to the paper to be published in the Astrophysical Journal and available at.

A light-year is the distance light can travel in one year at a speed of 186,000 miles a second, or about 6 trillion miles (10 trillion km).

The researchers use an indirect method radial velocity to detect planets. As a planet orbits, it makes the star wobble very slightly and this can be measured.

"There are now nearly 500 known extrasolar planets," Vogt's team wrote. "If the local stellar neighborhood is a representative sample of the galaxy as a whole, our Milky Way could be teeming with potentially habitable planets."

This planet, one of six whizzing around the little cool star, has a mass three to four times that of the Earth and orbits every 37 or so days, they calculated.

"Our findings offer a very compelling case for a potentially habitable planet," Vogt said.

They estimate temperatures on the planet average from -24 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (-31 to -12 degrees C). The planet is locked facing its sun, like Mercury, so one side would be extremely hot and the other perpetually cold, with the livable range being at the edge where dawn and dusk would be on a spinning planet like Earth's.

If it was rocky, like Earth, it could have gravity similar to Earth's and it would be possible for liquid water to be on the surface, they said, although they have not detected water on Gliese 581g.

(Reporting by Maggie Fox; Editing by Paul Simao)
I'm glad we've found this planet, and will probably find lots more. It might take a few centuries, but these planets are close enough to send probes to in search of life. I'm really excited about the implications of this find.
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Re: Goldilocks planet found

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Awesome. If we send a probe now we might just be able to get pictures of the surface before I die. Just looking on the bright side here. But not the actual bright side, since that's a blasted wasteland and would be completely inhospitable.
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Re: Goldilocks planet found

Post by Lord of the Abyss »

Ha, I was just going to post this. It's amazing how far and fast we've come from the "we can't even know for sure other starts even have planets" situation.

I wonder if they can figure out a way to detect if it has an oxygen atmosphere; that would really clinch that it has life.
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Re: Goldilocks planet found

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Ahem.


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Re: Goldilocks planet found

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OsirisLord wrote:Awesome. If we send a probe now we might just be able to get pictures of the surface before I die. Just looking on the bright side here. But not the actual bright side, since that's a blasted wasteland and would be completely inhospitable.
Only if you plan on living for the next . . . 338 years. Gliese 581 is 20.3 light-years from Earth. The Daedalus concept could do no more than 6% of the speed of light, and it was just a concept. Hell, your great-great-great-grandchildren will probably be dead of old age long before we have the capability to build a probe that could go that fast, and work that long.
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Re: Goldilocks planet found

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GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: Only if you plan on living for the next . . . 338 years. Gliese 581 is 20.3 light-years from Earth. The Daedalus concept could do no more than 6% of the speed of light, and it was just a concept. Hell, your great-great-great-grandchildren will probably be dead of old age long before we have the capability to build a probe that could go that fast, and work that long.
I wouldn't put off 338 years as impossible with the proper combination of organ replacement and freezing/hibernation/something else.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Zac Naloen »

Assuming peak efficiency how long would VASIMR take to get there, pure estimate but it would be closer to 100 years wouldn't it?
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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Man, even an orion drive that *averages* 10% of the speed of light (it also has to slow down somehow, don't forget :)) takes 200 years to get there, and then 20 more years to send a radio signal back.

And about that radio signal: if the spaceship has a really high-powered transmitter of say, 100 kW, beaming signals directly at Earth, what kind of radio telescope do we need to get the signal and how fast can it send information in b/s?

Results like this make the fermi paradox even weirder. My favoured explanation at the moment for why we don't see evidence of intelligent life in the galaxy is that we just happen to be one of the very first ones to have come along, with any previous species killing themselves or never bothering to venture beyond their solar system. (sure it takes a ridiculously long time, but the galaxy is old too: What's a 200 year wait to a 10 million-year-old civilization?)
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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300+ Years seems VERY long, considering we don't even have the faintest idea how to keep the hardware/ship working, much less how to achive that age in a human.

Modax wrote:Man, even an orion drive that *averages* 10% of the speed of light takes 200 years to get there, and then 20 more years to send a radio signal back.
If you decided to go for soft/pulp scifi, why didn't you take the obvious choice and go for warp speed? :D
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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Modax wrote:Results like this make the fermi paradox even weirder. My favoured explanation at the moment for why we don't see evidence of intelligent life in the galaxy is that we just happen to be one of the very first ones to have come along,
This hypothesis makes no sense given that when you evaluate the rate at which stellar metallicities have gone up (meaning more heavy elements available to make planets,) and the mean age of stars which might host habitable planets; the average age of habitable planets in this galaxy is expected to be a full billion years older than the age of the Earth. A more likely assumption is that nobody lives long enough to seriously venture beyond their home starsystems. Indeed, there's every reason to suspect that Humanity itself has possibly already doomed itself to spending the rest of its existence on Earth due to our own short-sightedness.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

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Man, even an orion drive that *averages* 10% of the speed of light (it also has to slow down somehow, don't forget ) takes 200 years to get there, and then 20 more years to send a radio signal back.



Hah, Woops. I must have been reading something that consisted of a large dose of wishful thinking to get those numbers. Or I did it wrong, which is just as likely.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Guardsman Bass »

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
Modax wrote:Results like this make the fermi paradox even weirder. My favoured explanation at the moment for why we don't see evidence of intelligent life in the galaxy is that we just happen to be one of the very first ones to have come along,
This hypothesis makes no sense given that when you evaluate the rate at which stellar metallicities have gone up (meaning more heavy elements available to make planets,) and the mean age of stars which might host habitable planets; the average age of habitable planets in this galaxy is expected to be a full billion years older than the age of the Earth. A more likely assumption is that nobody lives long enough to seriously venture beyond their home starsystems. Indeed, there's every reason to suspect that Humanity itself has possibly already doomed itself to spending the rest of its existence on Earth due to our own short-sightedness.
Although the technological limitations on interstellar space travel are steep, that strikes me as too humanocentric an explanation (particularly since interplanetary space travel is not quite as difficult). More likely is that intelligent, sentient life is simply very rare (to the best of our knowledge, it didn't evolve on Earth until hundreds of millions of years after complex life evolved), and technological civilization even rarer than that.

In any case, I hope this planet does end up being habitable (and if I recall correctly, they do have a way of measuring the atmospheric composition of the planet based off of the light reflected off of it, although it's difficult). A habitable planet with lots of oxygen in its atmosphere might lead to a boost in funding so that we can find more planets, and hopefully some earth-like ones around bigger stars than red dwarfs.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Solauren »

For the discovery: Kick ass! If it had a wider habitable area then the region around it's terminator, I'd say start transmitting high powered radio messages to it. Hell, do it anyway.

Just don't expect a response. It's likely the planet doesn't have complex sentient life on it.

For the likely hood of more intelligent life in the universe:
I'll remind everyone that before humanity came along, there were a number of 'Global Mass extinction events' on this planet. There was a rather famous one, about 65 million years ago, for example.

It's entirely possible life is fairly common, but never gets beyond a certain stage, beyond rare occurances.

We should be prepared for the possibility, that while we are not alone, the only 'neighbours' we have are more on the level with our cat + dog.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Aranfan »

This is awesome news. The chances of us being alone just plummeted.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Guardsman Bass wrote:Although the technological limitations on interstellar space travel are steep, that strikes me as too humanocentric an explanation (particularly since interplanetary space travel is not quite as difficult). More likely is that intelligent, sentient life is simply very rare (to the best of our knowledge, it didn't evolve on Earth until hundreds of millions of years after complex life evolved), and technological civilization even rarer than that.
That pesky problem of the average age of habitable planets being older than Earth again raises its head. Even if we assume that it takes a given planet ~5 billion years to produce a technological civilization, that just means that they should've started turning up (on average) about one or two billion years ago. Of course, if all civilizations tend to be very short-lived, they're probably all dead by now.

However, once you get far enough to start building a Dyson swarm, you're just about extinction-proof; and you'll have the surplus energy production needed to start throwing out lots of interstellar probes inside the space of, say, 10,000 years. Once you've settled more than a couple of star-systems, you're wholly extinction-proof; and there really isn't any reason why your species and/or its technological successors ought not still be around a few tens or hundreds of millions of years from now. In other words, a species successful enough to colonize its home system ought to eventually become successful enough to found interstellar colonies. And a species successful to do that ought to, not only still be around, but should've papered much of the galaxy in their habitats. Even if they only expanded the bounds of their territory by one light-year every 10,000 years, they should've spanned the breadth of the galaxy in a billion years. One light-year every 1000 years would cut that time to 100 million years.

Unless technological life is so unique that it almost never turns up. That, however, is a very anthropocentric assumption to make. Within the last couple million years, Earth was positively lousy with near-technological sapient species. We're finding more evidence to suggest that the Homo genus was more like a tangled shrub than a tree. If an asteroid had landed in Africa 100,000 years ago, we'd all be Neanderthals, marveling at the gracile fossils of the extinct Bead Man. If Toba hadn't gone off, we might be Erectus marveling at how anyone could be stupid enough to believe in "Out-of-Africa" when it's clear the cradle of our species was China.

Had the K-T event never happened, there's every reason to suspect a descendant species of Troodon might've developed a technological civilization a couple tens of millions of years early.

Assuming Earth isn't special, we must conclude that sapient life is nearly inevitable; which brings us to Fermi's Paradox. Since Earth is a comparative new kid on the block; there ought to already be a galaxy-spanning interstellar civilization out there. Such a thing ought to be very obvious. The fact that we don't see them either implies that Earth is special, and sapient life isn't actually inevitable; Earth is not special, sapient life is inevitable, but it all eventually decides to machine-upload in the most environmentally-conscious fashion possible (thus explaining why the galaxy isn't papered in someone else's computronium;) or Earth is not special, sapient life is inevitable, but it's all comprised of suicidal babies that kill themselves before leaving their cradles.
In any case, I hope this planet does end up being habitable (and if I recall correctly, they do have a way of measuring the atmospheric composition of the planet based off of the light reflected off of it, although it's difficult). A habitable planet with lots of oxygen in its atmosphere might lead to a boost in funding so that we can find more planets, and hopefully some earth-like ones around bigger stars than red dwarfs.
The habitable ones around red dwarves are the most desirable, though. They'll still be around and habitable for hundreds of billions of years after stars like the Sun have all left the main sequence, eaten their terrestrial planets, and ended their lives as cold, dead, black dwarfs.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Modax »

If we destroy ourselves, it will be for either one of two reasons. It will be due to either
a) an unfortunate series of compounding historical accidents
or
b) the pleistocene savanah failed to select for the emergence of a sufficiently intelligent hominid.

In the first case, perhaps if the great library of Alexandria hadn't been destroyed, we could have had a scientific revolution in 500 instead of in 1700, and we'd have colonized Mars by now. Who knows.

In the second case, if Homo Sapiens Sapiens had gone extinct in Africa 100,000 years ago, perhaps the descendants of the Neanderthals would have done better than we ever could have. Or maybe we would have done better if our minds were more like Bonobos then common Chimps. Again, who knows.

Evolution is always shortsighted but intelligence is not. The invention of agriculture required minds capable of foresight and longterm planning.

Every case of an intelligent species evolving is going to be unique; natural selection is not going to produce hominids on Gliese 581g, guaranteed. The number of possible intelligent animal species allowed by carbon chemistry is just too big.

If an accident of evolution somewhere in the universe makes an animal just slightly less shortsighted and antisocial than a human, that might just push them over a threshold--the great filter--and onto the fast track to galactic civilization. And it's a given that every intelligent civilization is going to have completely different accidents of history.

So if technology using lifeforms have evolved a million times in the history of the galaxy, it seems extremely unlikely that they each and every one of them managed to self-destruct. If just one survived and flourished, they would have a billion years to explore the galaxy and we should probably have seen evidence of them by now. So, yeah, Fermi paradox is weird, but I stand by my favoured explanation. As unlikely as it seems, we are probably one of the first.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by General Zod »

Modax wrote: So if technology using lifeforms have evolved a million times in the history of the galaxy, it seems extremely unlikely that they each and every one of them managed to self-destruct. If just one survived and flourished, they would have a billion years to explore the galaxy and we should probably have seen evidence of them by now. So, yeah, Fermi paradox is weird, but I stand by my favoured explanation. As unlikely as it seems, we are probably one of the first.
What makes you think we should have seen evidence by now? We have enough trouble finding small, habitable planets in another solar system a few light years away let alone "obvious" indicators of an advanced civilization. If they're advanced enough for interstellar travel then chances are they've got technology that let them hide themselves from a bunch of low-tech primitives if they weren't keen on being discovered. For all we know other forms of life are incredibly xenophobic.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Guardsman Bass »

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
However, once you get far enough to start building a Dyson swarm, you're just about extinction-proof; and you'll have the surplus energy production needed to start throwing out lots of interstellar probes inside the space of, say, 10,000 years. Once you've settled more than a couple of star-systems, you're wholly extinction-proof; and there really isn't any reason why your species and/or its technological successors ought not still be around a few tens or hundreds of millions of years from now. In other words, a species successful enough to colonize its home system ought to eventually become successful enough to found interstellar colonies. And a species successful to do that ought to, not only still be around, but should've papered much of the galaxy in their habitats. Even if they only expanded the bounds of their territory by one light-year every 10,000 years, they should've spanned the breadth of the galaxy in a billion years. One light-year every 1000 years would cut that time to 100 million years.
You're assuming that a civilization would even want to build a Dyson Swarm, spam interstellar probes, or go beyond a handful of star systems at best. Why?

"Species survival" is the usual answer, but it's all speculative on how an alien civilization might evaluate such things. With regards to the one space-faring civilization that we know of, "long-term species survival" is an anemic driving force.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: Unless technological life is so unique that it almost never turns up. That, however, is a very anthropocentric assumption to make. Within the last couple million years, Earth was positively lousy with near-technological sapient species. We're finding more evidence to suggest that the Homo genus was more like a tangled shrub than a tree. If an asteroid had landed in Africa 100,000 years ago, we'd all be Neanderthals, marveling at the gracile fossils of the extinct Bead Man. If Toba hadn't gone off, we might be Erectus marveling at how anyone could be stupid enough to believe in "Out-of-Africa" when it's clear the cradle of our species was China.
Until 12,000 years ago, their social organization was virtually unchanged for hundreds of thousands to millions of years. Their technological advancement was very, very slow over the same period. It's not at all unlikely that other intelligent alien species may end up in a similar situation, except that they don't break out of it towards increasingly advanced technological civilization.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: Had the K-T event never happened, there's every reason to suspect a descendant species of Troodon might've developed a technological civilization a couple tens of millions of years early.
Look at the length of the Mesozoic and Paleozoic Eras, though. That's a considerable amount of time for a species to develop sentience and even technological civilization that might survive a mass extinction, yet so far as we can tell, it did not occur.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
In any case, I hope this planet does end up being habitable (and if I recall correctly, they do have a way of measuring the atmospheric composition of the planet based off of the light reflected off of it, although it's difficult). A habitable planet with lots of oxygen in its atmosphere might lead to a boost in funding so that we can find more planets, and hopefully some earth-like ones around bigger stars than red dwarfs.
The habitable ones around red dwarves are the most desirable, though. They'll still be around and habitable for hundreds of billions of years after stars like the Sun have all left the main sequence, eaten their terrestrial planets, and ended their lives as cold, dead, black dwarfs.
The planets will have become geologically inert long before then, which has its own set of negative side-effects on a habitable world. That said, it's not really a problem if the species inhabiting them is really good at geo- and atmospheric-engineering.
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Modax
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Modax »

If they've been swamping the galaxy with high power radio signals for millions of years (a big assumption, but not so unreasonable, they certainly aren't going to use gravity waves or 'psionics') then SETI should be due to find their signals...any time now. There's only so much spectrum to search, especially if the ETI are using the relatively quiet 'hydrogen line'

Or if they're into building dyson spheres, we should be able to detect those on infrared. (unless they are hyper-efficient, using multiple layers operating at ever lower temperatures and using the waste heat of the previous layer for power w/ 'sufficiently advanced technology' then maybe that cloud of 'dark matter' around the milky way is actually all dyson spheres...no idea if this is actually remotely plausible.)

But back on the subject of Fermi paradox, the basic point is that while, based on the age of the galaxy, the likelihood of us being first is very, very small, it seems *less improbable* than the case that, every time Natural Selection produces a mind, no matter when or where in the universe it happens, no matter what the selection pressure in the environment is, it produces essentially the same antisocial, short-sighted, superstitious mind; over, and over, and over.

It needs to do this ~100% of the time for intelligent life to be common and for self-destruction the primary cause of its non-evidence on a galactic scale.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by General Zod »

Modax wrote:If they've been swamping the galaxy with high power radio signals for millions of years (a big assumption, but not so unreasonable, they certainly aren't going to use gravity waves or 'psionics') then SETI should be due to find their signals...any time now. There's only so much spectrum to search, especially if the ETI are using the relatively quiet 'hydrogen line'

Or if they're into building dyson spheres, we should be able to detect those on infrared. (unless they are hyper-efficient, using multiple layers operating at ever lower temperatures and using the waste heat of the previous layer for power w/ 'sufficiently advanced technology' then maybe that cloud of 'dark matter' around the milky way is actually all dyson spheres...no idea if this is actually remotely plausible.)

But back on the subject of Fermi paradox, the basic point is that while, based on the age of the galaxy, the likelihood of us being first is very, very small, it seems *less improbable* than the case that, every time Natural Selection produces a mind, no matter when or where in the universe it happens, no matter what the selection pressure in the environment is, it produces essentially the same antisocial, short-sighted, superstitious mind; over, and over, and over.

It needs to do this ~100% of the time for intelligent life to be common and for self-destruction the primary cause of its non-evidence on a galactic scale.

Assuming those signals don't just gradually dissipate and wind up blending into cosmic background noise. If they're using a very tight signal then there's no reason to assume we'd simply be able to pick it up without knowing exactly where to look.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by starslayer »

Some more technical background on the project:

The press release video. It's about an hour long.

And the paper. Here's the abstract:
We present 11 years of HIRES precision radial velocities (RV) of the nearby M3V star Gliese 581, combining our data set of 122 precision RVs with an existing published 4.3-year set of 119 HARPS precision RVs. The velocity set now indicates 6 companions in Keplerian motion around this star. Differential photometry indicates a likely stellar rotation period of ~94 days and reveals no significant periodic variability at any of the Keplerian periods, supporting planetary orbital motion as the cause of all the radial velocity variations. The combined data set strongly confirms the 5.37-day, 12.9-day, 3.15-day, and 67-day planets previously announced by Bonfils et al. (2005), Udry et al. (2007), and Mayor et al (2009). The observations also indicate a 5th planet in the system, GJ 581f, a minimum-mass 7.0 M_Earth planet orbiting in a 0.758 AU orbit of period 433 days and a 6th planet, GJ 581g, a minimum-mass 3.1 M_Earth planet orbiting at 0.146 AU with a period of 36.6 days. The estimated equilibrium temperature of GJ 581g is 228 K, placing it squarely in the middle of the habitable zone of the star and offering a very compelling case for a potentially habitable planet around a very nearby star. That a system harboring a potentially habitable planet has been found this nearby, and this soon in the relatively early history of precision RV surveys, indicates that eta_Earth, the fraction of stars with potentially habitable planets, is likely to be substantial. This detection, coupled with statistics of the incompleteness of present-day precision RV surveys for volume-limited samples of stars in the immediate solar neighborhood suggests that eta_Earth could well be on the order of a few tens of percent. If the local stellar neighborhood is a representative sample of the galaxy as a whole, our Milky Way could be teeming with potentially habitable planets.
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Re: Possibly habitable exo-planet found- Gliese 581g

Post by Aranfan »

Modax, do you mean always no matter where in the universe or always no matter where in the galaxy? It might well be that we are the first intelligent species to evolve and then survive to this tech-level in this Galaxy while still being billions of years later than most on a universal level. Without FTL each galaxy is essentially it's own isolated pond. We might be the first fish to survive our pond, without fish being rare.
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