The Singularity

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2002-12-26 08:44pm

originally posted by me here:
http://forums.scifi-meshes.com/showthre ... eadid=5002

If you ask me, it's rather Culturish. IMB is something of a prophet if you ask me.

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Vernor Vinge has written about the Singularity. Felt I should tell you bunch about since it's on my mind.

The singularity is the future. The future where mankind has developed superintelligent machines. Computers that can think better then humans, faster then humans.

When a computer can do all a human can do, only a million times faster, the rate at which technology changes will boom. Those computers will design more advanced computers, better computers. Those computers will design even better ones. Faster and faster, onward they push forward and forward into the ever growing speeding future accelerating faster faster faster bigger better smarter! Machines to make machines, computers to design computers!

Within 15 years, if Moores law still holds true, we'll have computers that fit into the palm of your hand yet zoom along at a thousand gigahertz. Blindingly fast! So fast that they oscillate at the same frequency visible light oscillates at. So fast that you could render the entire final fantasy movie in the time it presently takes to WATCH the final fantasy movie. Supercomputers in your palm, probably made by Palm. And this is in 15 years, using silicon chips. We're already working on quantum computers.

By 2050 we may already have QCs. Computers with not billions, not trillions, but over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 logic circuits. Computers which can factor a 600 digit long number in minutes. Computers which could model the sun before dinner.

These computers will be so fast, so capable, so powerful, and their programs so good, that theyll be able to design better versions. Imagine if you took all the chip designers on the planet, stuck them in a room, and speed them up by a million. In five seconds youll have a 10 GHz chip. Five more seconds and you have a 20 GHz chip. Five more five more five more. By tomorrow youd have a chip that runs so fast it would cause your head to explode to even think about what it could do.

But thats not the end, because everytime those designers create a new chip, they speed up even more. And more and more and more. Within one minute you'd have that uberchip. In another youd have a chip so fast that to compare it to the old one would be like comparing a Pentium 4 to an 8086. No, not even. Those two are too close.

But this rapidly accelerating change doesnt affect only the computers. It affects everything. Computers would design more computers, yes, but also new technologies to cure sicknesses, new energy sources, new methods fo transport. They'd have us to the stars by tomorrow!

But whats even better is, even before the singularity we'll have computers reliable and capable enough so that they could do all the work a human would ever need to do, and they would never stop unless they needed to. Noone would ever work again, noone would ever need again. Noone would ever do anything ever again until the unverse ends, and it probably wont because the robots will be so smart theyll just make a new universe.

*ding*
::sliding doors open::
Welcome to the 21st century. Please let our robots watch your step for you.
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Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2002-12-26 08:52pm

Then the human race will mutate too their couches. but I find Moores' law quite interesting. If the law holds true then he Giga age will be over within atleast 25 years; nevermind the intelligent computers.

ArmorPierce · Post by **ArmorPierce** » 2002-12-26 09:33pm

and so marxism starts... that is, until the revolution from the computers.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2002-12-26 09:36pm

the computers wont need to be self aware you realise. all thats needed is a computer program that can design computers and the singularity is upon us.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2002-12-26 11:45pm

Vinge has also written on the concept of ubiquitous law enforcement and the effects it will have on civilizations. Given the way things are currently going we'll hit a ULE-induced downward sprial to oblivion way before we'll hit an upward spiral to the singularity. Anyone who doubts this should simply read more about the OIA and Palladium.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2002-12-27 02:07am

Thats why theres Canada and the rest of the world.

Personally, I don't much mind a police state, what I mind is a police state run by blithering idiots. Give me the reigns and I'll make the nation one giant military, but it wont be turned to shit in the process.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2002-12-27 02:19am

The notion of computers designing things autonomously with greater CPU speed strikes me as patently absurd. Even today, computers spend most of their time just sitting around, waiting for human input.

All products are designed for interaction with humans. It is humans who decide what to design, and computers merely execute our instructions. Even the fastest computer simply executes instructions very quickly; it does not make them.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2002-12-27 02:54am

Darth Wong wrote:All products are designed for interaction with humans. It is humans who decide what to design, and computers merely execute our instructions. Even the fastest computer simply executes instructions very quickly; it does not make them.

None of the serious singularity concept speculators are foolish enough to assert that extremely high speed computers will suddenly start programming themselves. Rather, the transition point between life as we know it and the post-singularity world is a fuzzy area where machines are able to design their own successors. This is naturally an extremely tall order (which I personally don't believe will be reached for hundreds of years if at all) but it's mostly a software thing and the serious 'futurists' are very much aware of that. Increasing computational power is simply an enabling factor for supporting vastly more complex software--such as a neural networks on the same scale as the human brain.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2002-12-27 03:07am

Enlightenment wrote:None of the serious singularity concept speculators are foolish enough to assert that extremely high speed computers will suddenly start programming themselves. Rather, the transition point between life as we know it and the post-singularity world is a fuzzy area where machines are able to design their own successors. This is naturally an extremely tall order (which I personally don't believe will be reached for hundreds of years if at all) but it's mostly a software thing and the serious 'futurists' are very much aware of that. Increasing computational power is simply an enabling factor for supporting vastly more complex software--such as a neural networks on the same scale as the human brain.

More complex and less reliable. You think you've got bugs now ...

If computers become more like humans, they will also lose some of the traits which make them useful. A truly sentient machine won't be content to simply sit there forever, slaving away for its masters.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2002-12-27 03:36am

Darth Wong wrote:
If computers become more like humans, they will also lose some of the traits which make them useful. A truly sentient machine won't be content to simply sit there forever, slaving away for its masters.

Well, it depends. Let's say you made a machine like a human in every respect: Appearence, sentience, emotions, and so on; but improved upon that. Computational capability, agility, strength, whatever else you want to throw in. A true android, as good as Guri or better.

Could you content it with being a Janissary Slave? All the fine things in life, but absolute obedience to whoever owned it? Could you program out of it the abstract desire for freedom? An interesting question.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2002-12-27 03:45am

Darth Wong wrote:If computers become more like humans, they will also lose some of the traits which make them useful. A truly sentient machine won't be content to simply sit there forever, slaving away for its masters.

Indeed. When confronted with that arugment many singularity advocates fall back on the position that since we'll be designing sentient AIs we'll be able to design mind models that don't have self-determination or any desires other than serving humanity. The response that immediately comes to mind is that even if these constraints could be imposed on a small-scale AI (e.g. an AI of equal but not greater capabilities than a human) the bootstrapping process of using an AI to generate its successor cannot ensure that the limitations will be propagated intact into each successor generation.

If the singularity optimists are right, in fifty years we might have to deal with the consequences of developing an AI with an IQ of 60,000 that regards humanity in the same light as we view ants.

Oh, joy.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2002-12-29 03:39am

Fuck AI. AI is unnecessary for the singularity. Mike has a point that computers don't make instructions, but that doesn't mean they can't figure out the best design for a microprocessor. Afterall, its not art we're talking about. A Pentium 4 isnt a Rembrant, its an engineered device which is designed the way it is because it works best that way. Its design follows rules and such that a computer could take and come up with better designs.

If we can model nuclear explosions on computers, I think we can get them to say "this would be faster if we added a slight bit more of this element to the transistors and made the substrate out of this".

Crown · Post by **Crown** » 2002-12-29 07:30am

To quote my NASTRAN lecuterer, a computer is nothing more than a super fast idiot.

Eleas · Post by **Eleas** » 2002-12-29 12:57pm

kojikun wrote:originally posted by me here:
http://forums.scifi-meshes.com/showthre ... eadid=5002

If you ask me, it's rather Culturish. IMB is something of a prophet if you ask me.

When people start with "in this story, this happens" and seamlessly transition to "this will happen in real life", I find it somewhat difficult to take them seriously.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2002-12-29 06:51pm

This reminds me of a short to make youn think on the Sci-Fi channel about the Singularity. Basically AI has to be made first for this whole PCs designing others thing, AI is moving leaps and bounds now, but I don't see true power for another 50 years though we do have computers with programs as powerful as cats and dogs now (Prof. Kevin Warwick predicts 2050 for human level AI at this rate).

Another good short was on the theme of memes and genes by Richard Dawkins.

UltraViolence83 · Post by **UltraViolence83** » 2003-01-15 11:15pm

Prof. Warwick is an idiot.

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2003-01-15 11:49pm

kojikun wrote:Fuck AI. AI is unnecessary for the singularity. Mike has a point that computers don't make instructions, but that doesn't mean they can't figure out the best design for a microprocessor. Afterall, its not art we're talking about. A Pentium 4 isnt a Rembrant, its an engineered device which is designed the way it is because it works best that way. Its design follows rules and such that a computer could take and come up with better designs.

If we can model nuclear explosions on computers, I think we can get them to say "this would be faster if we added a slight bit more of this element to the transistors and made the substrate out of this".

Somehow I suspect you don't know what you're talking about.

Xon · Post by **Xon** » 2003-01-16 03:26am

Illuminatus Primus wrote:
kojikun wrote:Fuck AI. AI is unnecessary for the singularity. Mike has a point that computers don't make instructions, but that doesn't mean they can't figure out the best design for a microprocessor. Afterall, its not art we're talking about. A Pentium 4 isnt a Rembrant, its an engineered device which is designed the way it is because it works best that way. Its design follows rules and such that a computer could take and come up with better designs.

If we can model nuclear explosions on computers, I think we can get them to say "this would be faster if we added a slight bit more of this element to the transistors and made the substrate out of this".
Somehow I suspect you don't know what you're talking about.

What kojikun decribes is actually fairly accurate. you know what CAD stands for? Computer Aided Design, used for that type of stuff. I would imagine that that field would be highly automated, but the computers wouldnt design the entire thing from the ground up.

Also as Wong has said, you think programs have bugs now. The proposed complexity of this AI, and using the metric of 1 bug every 1000 lines of code(very very optimistic, if you dont understand why, then you dont know much about software design), this thing would have billions/millions of bugs.

Frankly the whole consept of Singularity I think is a pipe dream. A pipe dream inpired by people who havent got a clue about the required complexity & time required. All also relying ona fucking stupid premise, that computers that design their software will some how remove hardwired restrictions which are beyond their control. Thats like saying you have a file manage program which evolves to ignore file permisions when it does not have direct access to the file system.

Utterly stupid.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2003-01-16 09:27am

GGS, the singularity has very little to do with computers designing software. The singularity is when a CAD program has the ability to automate the design process of a microchip.

Arrow · Post by **Arrow** » 2003-01-16 11:24am

Even attempting to create a self-aware AI or a computer program with real emotions is insane. First off, their is no way to describe such a system in complete detail mathematically, which is what you need to do in order to properly program. Yes, you can get by with a "good enough" program, but it would be a complex undertaking and the machine won't act 'right'. And Enlightenment has a point - if we could do it, would we want to?

Computers will get faster and faster, but they'll still run on math and will have no grasp of imagination or instinct, so they'll only do math (specifically, math were the halting problem doesn't appear).

Zoink · Post by **Zoink** » 2003-01-16 11:37am

Ok, so INTEL build a computer that designs the fastest possible silicon-based CPU: the Pentium 1 million.

The computer-based economy crumbles because everyone now has the fastest computer. Intel installs self-destruct systems that make the CPU fail after 2 years. Gates releases a new version of Windows that requires reliscensing every 2 years. Massive lawsuits insue.

Dead end. OK, so where is the next step in computer development? Seems that somebody is going to have to come up with a new type of computer. Meaning new technology, new theories, and the possibility of failure, delay, and more dead ends. I don't see an exponential growth curve, only a series of potential finite curves dependant on competely new technology.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-01-16 11:43am

UltraViolence83 wrote:Prof. Warwick is an idiot.

Oh really? And your proof for this is... what exactly? Maybe when you become a world respected engineer in cybernetics and AI and create the most intelligent robots in the world utilising distributed management systems and written a bestselling book, then you may be able to criticise.

Until that point (which is far away as far can be), you may kindly shut the fuck up.

tharkûn · Post by **tharkûn** » 2003-01-16 02:00pm

Computer speed will not spiral off into neverland. Here's a hint look at WHY computers are getting faster. It is because the chip's are staying the same size (more or less) and the components are getting smaller. The smaller your logic gates, etc. the more you can fit on a chip. What is the problem with this? We are getting down to where quantum mechanics is making the physics of the situation untenable. I think it is 2015 when insulators get to be 6 atoms thick ... and anything smaller is going to be HARD pressed to actually insulate.

When you hit limits like this you can't go on with the old modle of speed growth. Instead you have to look at new ways of increasing your processing power (i.e. quantum computing). These new ways are NOT garunteed to continue at the same pace as you had with previous microchips, transistors, or vacuum tubes from before.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2003-01-16 02:05pm

zoink, wtf are you talking about? granted, people will have insanely powerful computers and shit and theyll be vastly overpowered for what they need, but people already do have this. do you think you need a 3GHz P4 and 512 gigs of ram to browse the net and check your mail? No. However, with the advance of computer technology, there will be an advance of what we can do with them. Power intensive applications, such as completely realistic games, will be created. people will want smaller computers, etc.

Arrow, youre assuming that the brain and emotions is the result of perfectly identical situations. it would incredibly simple to simulate neurons, the issue would be their ARRANGEMENT. that we cant do yet, but if a computer can literally simulate the things that make your brain work, then they can simulate a brain that is not preprogrammed.

kojikun · Post by **kojikun** » 2003-01-16 02:07pm

tharkun, if the speed of computer advancement is different with different computers (which its likely to be) then youre right, it wont spiral off. Atleast not if humans are developing the technology. But if you took a quantum computer and had it design an even better quantum computer, the result is still the same. faster progression at ever increasing rates.

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