Night temps far above normal

[Mayabird]

It's 10 PM and barely below 90 F outside. Something is definately wrong.

When Sun Sets, Heat Stays
Research Shows Nighttime Temps 'Much Above Normal' From 2001-2005

WASHINGTON, Aug. 2, 2006
By definition, "much above normal" means low temperatures that are in the highest 10 percent on record.

"This is unbelievable. Something strange has happened in the last 10 to 15 years on the minimums."
Richard Heim
National Climatic Data Center research meteorologist


(AP) America in recent years has been sweltering through three times more than its normal share of extra-hot summer nights, government weather records show. And that is a particularly dangerous trend.

During heat waves, like the one that now has a grip on much of the East, one of the major causes of heat deaths is the lack of night cooling that would normally allow a stressed body to recover, scientists say.

Some scientists say the trend is a sign of manmade global warming.

A top federal research meteorologist said he "almost fell out of my chair" when he looked over U.S. night minimum temperature records over the past 96 years and saw the skyrocketing trend of hot summer nights.

From 2001 to 2005, on average nearly 30 percent of the nation had "much above normal" average summertime minimum temperatures, according to the National Climatic Data in Asheville, N.C.

By definition, "much above normal" means low temperatures that are in the highest 10 percent on record. On any given year about 10 percent of the country should have "much above normal" summer-night lows.

Yet in both 2005 and 2003, 36 percent of the nation had much above normal summer minimums. In 2002 it was 37 percent. While the highest-ever figure was in the middle of America's brutal Dust Bowl, when 41 percent of the nation had much above normal summer-night temperatures, the rolling five-year average of 2001-05 is a record, by far.

Figures from this year's sweltering summer have not been tabulated yet, but they are expected to be just as high as recent years.

And it is not just the last five years. Each of the past eight years has been far above the normal 10 percent. During the past decade, 23 percent of the nation has had hot summer nights. During the past 15 years, that average has been 20 percent. By comparison, from 1964 to 1968 only 2 percent of the country on average had abnormally hot nights.

"This is unbelievable," said National Climatic Data Center research meteorologist Richard Heim. "Something strange has happened in the last 10 to 15 years on the minimums."

But it is not surprising because climate models, used to forecast global warming, have been predicting this trend for more than 20 years, said Jerry Mahlman, a climate scientist at National Center for Atmospheric Research and a top federal climate modeler.

It is a telltale sign of global warming, Mahlman said: "The smoking gun is still smoking; it's not shooting people yet."

One reason global warming is suspected in summer-night temperatures is that daytime air pollution slightly counteracts warming but is not as prevalent at night, said Bill Chameides, a climate scientist for the advocacy group Environmental Defense.

The records for summer-night low temperatures are part of a U.S. Climate Extremes Index developed by the National Climatic Data Center. Last year, in large part because of record hurricane activity, saw the most extreme weather in the United States since 1910.

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[Molyneux]

But of course, global warming is just an evil plot thought up by the environmentalists.

[Shinova]

Meh, the people in charge will only wake up when they all suffer collective heat stroke upon stepping outside..... IF they ever step outside, that is.

[Azrael]

But of course, global warming is just an evil plot thought up by the environmentalists.

Of course it is! You'll see - this is just a liberal ruse designed to trick hard working, god-fearing people into voting for satans party! There is no global warming! Just stay the course folks. Everything will be fine if we just pray about it!

....(pant) fuck man, is it ever hot in here...

[Zero]

I think enough people are complaining about the heat waves to realize something's up. I also think farmers are going to start giving a fuck when they start noticing that the drought simply isn't getting better. Of course, by the time people start actually trying to do stuff about it, it'll be too late.

[Broomstick]

It is a telltale sign of global warming, Mahlman said: "The smoking gun is still smoking; it's not shooting people yet."

Yes, it has. How many have died from heat in this summer....?

[Simplicius]

I seem to recall reading somewhere - so take this with a grain of salt - that, shortly after Sept. 11, when air traffic was grounded, there was a noticable difference in nighttime cooling.

Is there any validity to this? Do lots of contrails impact the ability of heat to radiate away at night?

[Tsyroc]

It's cooler than usual here.

It helps that we are acutally having a rainy monsoon season for a change instead of a couple days here and there of thundershowers.

It could be argued that we are getting rain because of global warming but we've been in a drought for 7+ years and so far we have just caught up to the amount of rain that is supposed to have fallen by this time of the year.

[Tsyroc]

I seem to recall reading somewhere - so take this with a grain of salt - that, shortly after Sept. 11, when air traffic was grounded, there was a noticable difference in nighttime cooling.

Is there any validity to this? Do lots of contrails impact the ability of heat to radiate away at night?

I saw something once that showed a contrail of an airplane eventually become a large cloud front a long distance away. I think the "theory" they were pushing was that all the aircraft flying through our skies are impacting the weather rather significantly. I'm not sold on the idea.

[Mayabird]

It is a telltale sign of global warming, Mahlman said: "The smoking gun is still smoking; it's not shooting people yet."

Yes, it has. How many have died from heat in this summer....?

I don't know as a whole, but I read that over 70 people just in California have died from the heat. There are probably dozens to hundreds more across the U.S. and Europe.

I think 13,000 people died in France in 2003 from a very hot summer, though.

I seem to recall reading somewhere - so take this with a grain of salt - that, shortly after Sept. 11, when air traffic was grounded, there was a noticable difference in nighttime cooling.

Is there any validity to this? Do lots of contrails impact the ability of heat to radiate away at night?

Clouds reflect back some sunlight during the day, but also serve to hold in heat at night. The temperature study that was done over those three days showed what appeared to be a 1 F rise in daytime temperatures and a 1 F drop in nighttime temperatures on average. However, it's not very statistically valid as it occured over only three days and measurements can't be taken at other times (it could just have been a statistical fluke). It probably also depend upon how high the air traffic is in the area. The NE U.S. would probably have a lot more contrails over it than, let's say, North Dakota.

So is there an effect? Maybe, but if there is it's still pretty small.

[Broomstick]

I seem to recall reading somewhere - so take this with a grain of salt - that, shortly after Sept. 11, when air traffic was grounded, there was a noticable difference in nighttime cooling.

Is there any validity to this? Do lots of contrails impact the ability of heat to radiate away at night?

There was a noticable reduction in cloud cover - proving that contrails do affect cloud formation, something that had been debated for awhile (although it is also clear that not all contrails become clouds, they just make cloud formation more likely)

While cloud cover does affect temperatures, it's not clear cut. Like most of the weather, it's a multi-factorial thing much beloved of chaos mathmaticians and cursed by most others.

[Superman]

Since Rush Limbaugh said global warming doesn't exist, I am going to say that it must be fake. Since he has that doctorate in meteorology and all... Oh wait a minute...