USSR planned nuclear attack on China in 1969???

[Cecelia5578]

From http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -1969.html

USSR planned nuclear attack on China in 1969
The Soviet Union was on the brink of launching a nuclear attack against China in 1969 and only backed down after the US told Moscow such a move would start World War Three, according to a Chinese historian.


Andrew Osborn in Moscow and Peter Foster in Beijing
Published: 6:09PM BST 13 May 2010
USSR planned nuclear attack on China in 1969
US President Richard Nixon in Moscow with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev in 1974 Photo: AP

The extraordinary assertion, made in a publication sanctioned by China's ruling Communist Party, suggests that the world came perilously close to nuclear war just seven years after the Cuban missile crisis.

Liu Chenshan, the author of a series of articles that chronicle the five times China has faced a nuclear threat since 1949, wrote that the most serious threat came in 1969 at the height of a bitter border dispute between Moscow and Beijing that left more than one thousand people dead on both sides.

He said Soviet diplomats warned Washington of Moscow's plans "to wipe out the Chinese threat and get rid of this modern adventurer," with a nuclear strike, asking the US to remain neutral.

But, he says, Washington told Moscow the United States would not stand idly by but launch its own nuclear attack against the Soviet Union if it attacked China, loosing nuclear missiles at 130 Soviet cities. The threat worked, he added, and made Moscow think twice, while forcing the two countries to regulate their border dispute at the negotiating table.

He quotes Soviet ministers and diplomats at the time to bolster his claim.

On 15 October 1969, he quotes Soviet premier Alexei Kosygin as telling Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev that Washington has drawn up "detailed plans" for a nuclear war against the USSR if it attacked China.

"[The United States] has clearly indicated that China's interests are closely related to theirs and they have mapped out detailed plans for nuclear war against us," Kosygin is said to have told Brezhnev.

That same day he says Anatoly Dobrynin, the Soviet ambassador to Washington, told Brezhnev something similar after consultations with US diplomats. "If China suffers a nuclear attack, they (the Americans) will deem it as the start of the third world war," Dobrynin said. "The Americans have betrayed us."

The historian claims that Washington saw the USSR as a greater threat than China and wanted a strong China to counter-balance Soviet power. Then US President Richard Nixon was also apparently fearful of the effect of a nuclear war on 250,000 US troops stationed in the Asia-Pacific region and still smarting from a Soviet refusal five years earlier to stage a joint attack on China's nascent nuclear programme.

The claims are likely to stir debate about a period of modern history that remains mired in controversy.

Mr Liu, the author, admits his version of history is likely to be contested by rival scholars. It is unclear whether he had access to special state archives but the fact that his articles appeared in such an official publication in a country where the media is so tightly controlled is being interpreted by some as a sign that he did have special access.

It doesn't seem too surprising that the Soviets would have wanted to launch a nuclear attack against China, though it boggles my mind that the US would risk WW3 over the fate of the PRC. Of course this is all talking out of my ass, since I'm not remotely an expert at this time period and subject.

EDIT: Apologies if this should be in N&P, I wasn't sure what forum was appropriate.

[Kuroji]

I think it's less a matter of them threatening WW3 because of China, and more because the USSR would be using nukes in a rather wanton manner. Though China wasn't necessarily the friendliest of nations toward the USSR at that point, but they also did not have the capacity to retaliate in a major fashion, if at all in 1969.

Letting one nation nuke others that can't threaten MAD is a pretty horrifying precedent to let someone set and if they did it once they very well might do it again. Best to keep it from happening altogether.

[K. A. Pital]

"Bitter border dispute" was more like a PRC attack against a Soviet border outpost. Of course, it's a casus belli, and with nukes, things can go quite fast. I'm not sure the Chinese realized it when they attacked Damansky.

Apparently, this news is not old (neither is Liu Chenshan's article, IIRC), but he can't provide any sources for his claims. That doesn't mean they should be dismissed out of hand, but Liu is, apparently, the only person seriously suggesting that there was a chance of nuclear war over a border clash.

[thejester]

This is what caught my eye:

The historian claims that Washington saw the USSR as a greater threat than China and wanted a strong China to counter-balance Soviet power. Then US President Richard Nixon was also apparently fearful of the effect of a nuclear war on 250,000 US troops stationed in the Asia-Pacific region and still smarting from a Soviet refusal five years earlier to stage a joint attack on China's nascent nuclear programme.

Say what?

[Caiaphas]

Agreed. US-Soviet relations may have been improving when Nixon was in, but I somehow don't think Cold War-era USA would have gone so far as to ally with the commies and attack China. I mean, yes, we do have the opportunity to topple communism in a country, but having to ask other commies for help? Ugh.

[Kuroji]

The historian claims that Washington saw the USSR as a greater threat than China and wanted a strong China to counter-balance Soviet power. Then US President Richard Nixon was also apparently fearful of the effect of a nuclear war on 250,000 US troops stationed in the Asia-Pacific region and still smarting from a Soviet refusal five years earlier to stage a joint attack on China's nascent nuclear programme.

Thank you for pointing this line out, thejester... yeah, this really does not make sense. If anything, the United States' interest would have been far better served letting China build up a few nukes, because the USSR was right next door and they don't even need ICBMs to hit them, just missiles with a range in the (high) hundreds of miles. Why on Earth would we want to collaborate with the Soviet Union to hit China? That part doesn't quite add up...

Mr Liu, the author, admits his version of history is likely to be contested by rival scholars.

Translation: "Yeah, it's bullshit, but it sells! Prove me wrong."

[Temujin]

This is what caught my eye:

The historian claims that Washington saw the USSR as a greater threat than China and wanted a strong China to counter-balance Soviet power. Then US President Richard Nixon was also apparently fearful of the effect of a nuclear war on 250,000 US troops stationed in the Asia-Pacific region and still smarting from a Soviet refusal five years earlier to stage a joint attack on China's nascent nuclear programme.

Say what?

I've always heard that it was just the opposite, with the USSR approaching the US. Supposedly an exchange between a Soviet General and Henry Kissinger resulted in Kissinger responding by asking if the USSR would be prepared to perform such a strike every 20 years or so.

[Bellosh101]

it boggles my mind that the US would risk WW3 over the fate of the PRC.

If the U.S. detected a massive barrage of Soviet ICBM launching, it would have no true assurance that all those Russian nukes won't be heading in America's direction. If would be utterly foolish to waste precious time figuring out whether this ICBM horde is either heading in America's or China's direction; the most prudent measure would be immediate retaliation. Such paranoia tends to produce nuclear attack scares like the 1983 one involving Stanislav Petrov and the 1995 Norwegian rocket incident.

[Sea Skimmer]

If the U.S. detected a massive barrage of Soviet ICBM launching, it would have no true assurance that all those Russian nukes won't be heading in America's direction.

First of all they would not fire ICBMs in the first place, they had plenty of IRBMs and MRBMs for that role. Many ICBMs could not be used against China at all because the range is too short. Secondly the US had BMEWS for a reason, and this system would tell us that missiles are not coming from the US. Nor would any other US radars be picking up signs of a Soviet attack, since such signs would not exist.

If would be utterly foolish to waste precious time figuring out whether this ICBM horde is either heading in America's or China's direction; the most prudent measure would be immediate retaliation.

You have no idea what you are talking about. No one is that stupid when the end of the world is at stake, and the US would not fire back until a nuclear weapon goes off on US soil. That is the whole reason why everyone insists that strategic nuclear weapons systems have survivability be that through mobile basing or hard silos. You fully expect to take an enemy attack first, because you are NOT going to fire without total confirmation of an attack. So subs hide in the deep ocean, bombers take to the air but await a go order, and ICBMs sit in the silos with the lids closed. In 1969 Soviet ICBM and SLBM accuracy was too low to target US ICBM silos as well, so the US was well placed to ride out a Soviet first strike. It wasn't until the later 1970s that our silos were placed at serious risk.

Such paranoia tends to produce nuclear attack scares like the 1983 one involving Stanislav Petrov and the 1995 Norwegian rocket incident.

You just disproved your own claims, good work. Notice how in neither 1983 or 1995 the world had a nuclear war.... because the people in charge waited to see if a nuke went off. They did not fire all the nuclear missiles they had on warning. They waited, saw the mistake and nothing deadly came of it.