Omeganian wrote:You don't need to go all that distance - no more than Hitler had to go 10, 000 to defeat USSR.
Hitler had to go thousands of kilometers, not hundreds - to Moscow and beyond. That was the stated target. Did you read the German plans, or you're speaking out of your fucking ass again? And of course, failing to go these thousands resulted in in Germany's utter defeat. Anything else?
Omeganian wrote:100-250... That's enough to destroy the Romanian petroleum - which would have caused some very nasty problems for Germany within months (with the heavy damage the oil fields suffered from the Soviets in 1941, they already had some shortage by fall).
Yes, it would've caused a shortfall in German oil imports; however, nothing too drastic if we're speaking about total war - besides, the logistic train of the nation attacked would be shortening, which means Germans would need less oil to defend than they'd need to attack the USSR in a several thousand km-long strategic offensive. Worse yet, the documents on "plans of covering the state border of the USSR" do not mention Romania as a priority target. Rezun pulled it out of his ass.
Omeganian wrote:It is somewhat unreasonable to discuss a single campaign
It's not. Barbarossa was a single plan, with goals and targets to defeat the enemy.
Omeganian wrote:Now, the Soviets, at the beginning of a war, lost strategic initiative, lost their best soldiers, lost fuel and ammo, lost much of their industry, a lot of their territory... and still ended up in Berlin. Now, if they have lost none of these things at the beginning of a war, isn't it logical to assume that by the end of the war they would have went somewhat further? Perhaps, at least as much as they went from Moscow, which would have put them well into France. After that - who would have resisted them?
The USSR lost "it's best soldiers"? I'd put it otherwise - through immense losses, the RKKA finally received necessary combat experience to regain the strategic initiative. There were other considerations as well, but primarily this. The RKKA of 1941 was not the same as the one in 1943-1945. The tactics of tank fights, the tactics of tank crew training were changed completely (for example, pre-war RKKA did not train tank crews to repair their tanks in the field, resulting in tanks being abandoned when breaking down; only by late 1941 the training scheme was changed to training-crew-on-factory, where the crew would watch their tank assembly and understand every intimate detail of how to repair their tank). The Army itself was re-organized - tank brigades were smaller units which were used more efficiently than unwieldy 1000-tank MKs, where obsolete and new tanks were joined (resulting in all the problems such a mix entails - slow speed, greater non-combat losses).
If your question is "could the RKKA, after several years of war, defeat Germany if it pre-emtively attacked in 1941", the answer is obviously "yes", because all the organizational changes would still be taking place. However, that assumes the German Wehrmacht is not showing the same efficiency in combat. There is little to suggest it wouldn't show tactical efficiency - in 1942, when the Germans no longer had strategic surprise, they still managed to conduct extremely deep operations and surroundings of Soviet forces. The key lie in the strategic mobility of Wehrmacht units - the Germans could move a tank group here or there (and do so covertly, like they did for the Vyazma cauldron, resulting in arguably one of the greatest catastrophes for the RKKA in 1941, in the same line as the Kiev cauldron). The Soviet intelligence failed to discover these movements in 1941-1942.
Another problem for the theory of "sudden mid-1941 attack" is that the USSR did not conduct aerial recon of nearby German territories, like Germany did before the attack - this indicates that the USSR, even if it were willing to do a preventive attack on the Germans, had placed it for an unknown term in the future - not anywhere close to 1941. The re-organization that was taking place required another few month of peace.
Omeganian wrote:Actually, they did build some emplacements - to support their attack.
How does this detract from my point? The RKKA could not cope with active defences of a deployed Wehrmacht. In summer 1941, fighting would be not easy likewise. The Wehrmacht would be at peak strength, fully prepared for mobile operations, it's units were very closely concentrated which resulted in a numerical superiority over the Soviet units on the border (with a roughly 1,5-2 times an advantage in division strength, and considering Soviet divisions were often undermanned, unlike German ones...). If the USSR attacked such tight packed, ready forces with inferior numbers, that would only result in a debacle. It would at least foil the German attack, though; the merits of such operation could be discussed separately.
Omeganian wrote:And didn't in Stalingrad.
Yes, Stalingrad, where the RKKA started to learn from the German playbook and covertly (!) relocated units for counteroffensive so that the German intel wouldn't notice. Stalingrad - 2 years after the onset of the war, when the RKKA's mechanized units were reformed from unwieldy, mix-tank MKs to small, agile tank brigades that had better training, new tactics, and new tanks of course.
Don't you find it strange that the RKKA started fulfilling combat objectives only when the necessary changes in tactics, unit composition and TOE took place? Nothing strange, really - the changes that the RKKA passed through in 1941-1942 greatly increased it's combat capabilities.
Omeganian wrote:Just what portion of the Wehrmacht forces were "near the border"? If they were in France, or even Britain (which is what Stalin's plan originally called for, according to Suvorov), would they have been able to redeploy in a sufficiently reorganized manner to stop the Soviets?
Problem is; there's no Stalin's plan. Like I said, there are no documents. No "Order N.X" equivalent to the Barbarossa orders which permeate the German documentation. Anyhow, like I said, Germany concentrated forces in greater numbers for OP Barbarossa RIGHT ON THE BORDER than the USSR had in it's first echelon (the border military districts on the entirety of their length), with a 1,5-2 times superiority in divisional strength and manpower numbers (and often in artillery, critical for a massed assault). Imagine a tight fist pushing through several sheets of paper. That's how the Germans penetrated Soviet defence - the Soviet forces were not concentrated.
Omeganian wrote:And the order they were given was an order to attack.
To counter-attack, right. The 6th MK, for example, went to attack the Germans on Soviet territory instead of "attacking" into the German rear. However, regardless of that, it lost most of it's tanks for non-combat reasons. A sad tale, don't you think? To make a several dozen km march and never utilize the most fully complect of Soviet MKs? If the 6th MK failed so badly despite having necessary equipment (by TOE), other MKs had no chance at all.
Omeganian wrote:Actually, the corps were abolished within a few months - apparently, they didn't fit defense that well either. Yet they were made for something, right?
Quite obviously the USSR understood the pre-war corps were unwieldy for
any mobile operations - such was the price of poor experience and a lag in understanding the lessons of 1939-1940 fights. The units that came after them were much more all-around suitable for large offensive operations (I'm speaking of tank brigs and tank armies). I'm not sure what you're insinuating? A good, well-supported mechanized unit allows you to attack and defend all the same. The Germans defended and attacked with the same Tank Divisions, the USSR defended and attacked with the same Tank Armies. These were proven, well-composed units.
Omeganian wrote:I told you, look at the first attack wave - which I take to mean the first eight corps - they look quite up to strength in tanks, and quite a few cars could be brought in over a few weeks
There's a 1,5-2 times inferiority in unit number and probably a 2-3 times inferiority in unit density in June 1941 on the Soviet-German border. Attacking is unthinkable - if only to prevent the German strategic surprise (but that requires uncovering their plans in full). "Up to strength"? In what, T-26s?
Cars were not to be taken from "industry and agriculture" - you continue to miss the point, there was not enough cars by TOE - i.e. the official requirement. You're too dumb to understand what official TOE means? The proportion of cars to tanks in well-wielded mechanized units (TAs 1943, German TDs) was generally tanks = 5% of cars. In an MK, the proportion was tanks = 20% of cars.
Omeganian wrote:Now, if they were preparing for defense, where you don't determine the time of attack, then lack of complement in cars would have been important...
The lack of cars is important for attack, because they are your logistic train. The longer you wish to advance, the more cars you need. For a short-range attack or defence you need fewer cars because your supply train is short, you are supplied by the domestic cities close to your unit.
Germany attacked with numerical superiority in the immediate line of attack. The USSR's forces were dispersed. Is that too hard of a concept to grasp for you? PribOVO, ZapOVO, etc. were huge military districts. Germany attained a superiority over the entire districts, and on the immediate attack line the superiority was doctrinaire or more than doctrinaire (3,4:1, etc.).
The case for ZapOVO is so bad that in the first echelon of divisions the German attack reached a 3:1 or greater advantage in almost all fields (yes, that inlcudes tanks). You can look up the relevant table here:
http://d-prospero.livejournal.com/72094 ... ad=1613214
Omeganian wrote:You yourself just stated that it was common for a Soviet tank army later to have around 65%-80% of its tanks.
Except these tanks were well-supported. Germany attacked at peak wartime strength.
Omeganian wrote:As for new tanks - well, there simply weren't enough produced yet. So what? Are the older tanks worse than the German?
Quite certainly the T-26 was a bad tank all-around, and it made up the bulk of Soviet tank force. Worse yet, many tanks had exhausted their motorhour resource and thus were nothing but stationary gunpoints. German tanks on the other hand had over 200 hrs of motorhours, on the average. Even newer Soviet tanks like KV and T-34 had about 50 hours at first - construction deficiencies.
Omeganian wrote:Suvorov does say something about recruiting 200 000 tractor drivers, and preparing to recruit more.
Quite certainly - in Spring 1941, the USSR's elite started to catch the wind of a planning German offensive. What's so surprising?
Omeganian wrote:Suvorov gives quotes about the army having enough fuel for the first battles - more would have been brought in later.
Germany planned for stocks of fuel for their advance until winter 1941 when the USSR was supposed to be crushed. Where are such plans for the USSR? Clearly, such plans would have seen the light of day - if the USSR established a target of defeating Germany (else why attack?), there would be a plan of use of oil and fuel materials in the advance, like the Germans did. You've provided no such plans or notes in commanders' diaries, or anything (unlike
Omeganian wrote:No maps made for Soviet territory - of course it affects mobility.
Hardly. The Soviet forces had maps for both Soviet territory and foreign territory. I'm not sure where you picked that urban myth at.
Omeganian wrote:Soviets - two weeks in Mongolia, half a month in Poland, three months in Finland. Germany - one month in Poland, one month in France, no more battles worth mentioning. I see little difference in experience.
Which of the USSR's operations was a blitzkrieg with massive encirclements? Both of Germany's operations included marches for encirclement for many hundreds of kilometers. Which of Soviet operations had such experience? The Polish "non-war" or the Finnish debacle?
Omeganian wrote:And here we have to ask a question- what did the army intend to do? Why were all the millions gathered near the border? Covering the border is but a temporary action till the main forces gather. What would they have done after gathering?
Covering the border is when you defend your border from an attacking enemy. There were no "millions" gathered near the border, as I've pointed time and again - right near the border Germans had a 3:1 or greater advantage. Begs the question, why most of Soviet forces, even in bordering military districts, were deployed farther off from the border. After you defend your border, you attack the enemy. However, that's normal for a war. Where is the evidence for anything abnormal? You're defending your border, you defend it and then attack the enemy and defeat him on his own territory.
Omeganian wrote:There is a plan to reach Vistula. I can just see them stopping there and saying "Yeah, now that we went that far, the war is over".
There's no plan to reach Vistula, unless I'm badly mistaken. I have the plan of cover for ZapOVO right in front of my eyes. It mentions Vistula (more precisely, Vistula bridges) only as a target for air raids and diversions.
Omeganian wrote:Then what was the USSR preparing for? Are you familiar with the figures of its military spending?
They were on the order of modern Israel or say DPRK. Is modern DPRK preparing for a strategic offensive? Is Israel preparing for a strategic offensive? No? On the other hand, Hitler's plans are actual plans. There are OKW plans, OKH plans, diaries of commanders which meticulously document every phase, every step of preparations for a strategic assault and attack on Russia which was decided in 1940 already.
Omeganian wrote:Well, Glantz doesn't seem to include a lot of his "archival research" in the bibliography - mainly the published sources, so I see little difference between him and Suvorov.
I'm not sure - his book on Leningrad had quite a lot of research. Harrison, Isaev do a lot of archival research. Neither considers there's any evidence for Rezun's hype. Besides, did Glantz misquote his sources or state a falsehood?
Omeganian wrote:Of what relevance is archival research? What does it matter in what way the evidence is obtained?
It does. If archival documents contradict your statements (like, for example, actual plans of covering the border ignoring Romania as a "minor objective"), or the "autobahn tanks", or the concentration of forces (Rezun's biggest failure - the actual concentration of forces on Soviet border was much, much less than he implies), then your research is discredited.
Omeganian wrote:The most I can remember him saying something to that effect is saying that the Soviet artillery was quite efficient against any German tank.
That was in "Suicide", I believe, but I'll look it up. Your claim here is egregious - was the Soviet 45-mm (the most common AT gun) "quite efficient" against German tanks?
Omeganian wrote:Britain didn't mass produce such tanks. The Soviets made 4,000. ... Then they are certainly not fit for defense.
Why? There's a lot of rivers you have to cross in Russia (in fact, the crossing of Svir' was on Russian territory), especially when conducting recon operations. A weapon like a floating tank is potentially useful in Russian river-crossed heartlands. Problem was, the Soviet floating tanks were poorly built machines (floating tanks in WWII were poor in general). But if they were a tad better, they'd be utilized better. A weapon can be utilized in any territory. All Soviet wargames were ran in Soviet territory and utilized Soviet hardware. Where's the problem? There's no "defence" and "offence" - there are military battles in course of a defensive or offensive on a large scale. If your weapon is good, it's good for both. If it's bad, it's bad for both.
Omeganian wrote:Did you read his later books? Where he answers to his opponents? Oh, the falsehoods he finds there...
Yeah, his "opponents", from which Glantz, Harrison and Isaev, for example, are consciously excluded. Maybe because they do more sort of research on Soviet wartime actions instead of trying to "oppose" a buffoon.
Omeganian wrote:Suvorov usually quotes the full text.
False. The misquote of Sandalov proves he consciously omits joined parts of texts. That is misquoting.
Yeah. That's what is said. Misquoting is not excusable. The Sandalov quote is ripped out of context, and I'm not sure what's so bad about defending the border and then counter-attacking with full strength. That sounds like a good strategy to me, especially as the USSR at the time had forces very dispersed and obviously had to take time before it could concentrate them (that was another error of the Soviet command - they presumed any attacker would get stuck in border battles while Soveit reinforcements from the rear will arrive and with new strength crush the attacker in a counter-attack and into his territory - the German advance tempoes mixed their cards, all too evident in the counterattack of the 6th MK which counterattacked near the Soviet border, presuming the Germans are still there. They were not).
Omeganian wrote:Well,
look at the quotes and tell me how they сan be ripped out of context.
The Sandalov misquote was not enough for you? I'll give you more - just give me some time. Lots of work.
Omeganian wrote:The General Staff officers worked some 16 hours a day in the first half of 1941. That's enough of a paper trail. What do all those historians with access to the archives say about its content?
That's not a paper trail - where are the documents? General Staff officers sure worked a lot - the Red Army was re-organizing, new TOEs were made, new plans - including the "plans for covering the state border of the USSR" which, by the way, are an excellent example of the Soviet pre-war doctrine. Where's the Soviet Barbarossa though?
To quote Mark Harrison:
Harrison wrote:It is true that in 1941 Nazi propagandists tried to justify the German attack on the Soviet Union as a defensive reaction to Soviet preparations for an attack on Germany. This explanation, built on speculation at a time when all the Soviet documents were secret, continues to find traction today in some quarters, but the opening of the Soviet archives has found no more hard evidence for it than there was before.
All there is in the archives are plans of covering the state border. There's no document, or documents, that would indicate any agression. On the other hand, all OKW, OKH diaries - even if the original document, the order on UN Barbarossa was destroyed - and subsequent lower-level orders provide enough information to fully reconstruct intent.
For example, Halder's KTB says in 1940 "Hitler will attack Russia. The time is spring next year" or something like that. Even if the Barbarossa orders were destroyed, Halder's KTB would be enough to evidence the fact of their existence - as would the orders issued to tank groups, which spoke of direct destruction of the USSR as a state through agression (not of "defence of the Reich via covering the reich border" or something).
Where are the documents?