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What if Operation Michael had never taken place and the Germans simply bunkered down, digging in while investing in the railways and waiting for Ukranian and Russian resources to flow in, relieving the desperate supply position in Germany?

Would America have quickly tired of the war and then settled down for a negotiated settlement? Or would Germany have eventually buckled under the massive resources available to the Allies?


Alternatively, what if only the first phase of operation Michael had taken place, the offensive against the British?

First, the resources secured by Brest-Litovsk simply took too long to start coming in, as German cities were already experiencing social collapse when WWI historically ended, and standing on the defensive won't alter that date much.

Second, the other Central Powers were also collapsing during this period, which would imperil German supply of critical resources (incl. food), and the German army, Michael Offensive or not, was running out of resources to aid them with.

Third, with America gearing up for war Allied strength waxed higher every day, and the Allies had developed tactics (debuted at Amiens) that could crack German entrenchments. Without a wasteful spring offensive the Germans would have more reserves to meet these attacks, but still the Allies would become stronger and stronger as American contributions daily increased, while the Germans inevitably weakened.

It's possible that Germany declining to launch Michael would extend the date of their collapse, but probably not significantly.

The Germans might survive until spring 1919 and that's about it. I think once the German high command loses the will to go on the offensive, they lose their will to keep fighting.

Once Bulgaria collapsed the entire Central Powers position was pretty imperiled; a half million allied troops could move virtually unopposed to liberate Serbia and close the Danube River at Belgrade. That river was and still is one of the main corridors for moving Ukrainian grain into Western Europe. Russia was mostly dependent on very slow moving river transports (like a whole year to complete one trip, or even TWO years for some barge traffic) and this is in large part why she lost the war. It also crippled German efforts to quickly exploit the Ukraine’s resources.

The collapse of Austria was even worse, I don’t see how Germany could keep going with its entire southern flank wide open.

Also even without the losses of Michael the Germans would still face an huge and growing allied superiority in tanks and other material. WW1 Tanks and aircraft couldn’t be decisive in terms of creating and exploiting breakthroughs like they would in WW2, but they greatly reduced allied losses in proportion to those of the Germans. The only real German hope in the face of millions of American men being thrown into the fight would be to pull back behind the Rhine and try to drag out a final defeat.

If stretching out the German defeat goes on long enough, the Communists might have an actual shot at taking power.