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Something that i had touched on in earlier RAR! threads, but i think that it is in of itself warrents a fullscale thread.

Here we have the following set of events, Japan does not invade China in 1937 for whatever reason, does not tick off the international community to the same degree as it did in the original timeline and does not prompt the US to harras oil imports into Japan and Japan does not ally with the National Socialists in Germany and sides with her traditional Ally of Britain against the Nazis. In Europe, Hitler Fails to conquer the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, which eventually leads to the USSR beseiging Berlin and Hitler decorating the Führerbunker with his splattered brains in 1945 (the US may or may not be involved directly in the war on the allies side here).

However the main note of focus of this thread is as so. The Japanese Empire remains in existance, as does it's prewar policies and is NOT limited by any treaties that were imposed upon it in OTL. How does the second half of the twenty first century unfold with the Japanese Empire as a major player on the world scene?

Zor

Even without a war in 1937, there's still the occupation of Manchuria and parts of China further south to consider, which involved the Japanese army in a rather heated guerilla war with Chinese partisans, prompting the steady expanding deployment zone for the Japanese army. If the Japanese pull completely out of China, Mao's done for. Chiang Kai-Shek can turn his full attention to wiping the Communists out without having to worry about his top general kidnapping him.

Japan becomes an even more authoritarian state, with most power residing with the Throne or his appointed oligarchs, although there could still be some pressure, albiet ineffective, internally to fight for a more liberal constitution, government, and society,mixed with the wacko nationalists who thought conquering Korea/Manchuria/China/East Asia were vital to national security.

In the aftermath of WWII, Japan throws itself completely behind the U.S. in the Cold War. There's no Korean War, obviously, and probably no Vietnam War (unless Japan joined the Allies early and took Indochina from Vichy), although there's almost certainly going to be a Russian-backed war to keep Korea from declaring independence. Japan never becomes the economic superpower it is/was at the end of the 20th century, either wearing itself down from trying to keep Korea/Taiwan/Manchuria, or becoming America's Asian counterpart to Great Britain/France in Europe.

TC Pilot wrote:In the aftermath of WWII, Japan throws itself completely behind the U.S. in the Cold War.

Really? I thought the world would be more multipolar, since, you know, some nations get unscathed from World War II?

Stas Bush wrote:Really? I thought the world would be more multipolar, since, you know, some nations get unscathed from World War II?

The Japanese leaders hated communism. The Japanese communist party was immediately banned and suppression efforts were so vigorously enforced that the only communist leaders to emerge during the occupation were those who had been sitting in prison for over a decade. Communism was regarded as the absolute antithesis of the kokutai, the Japanese national polity. A nice example of that is a quote by one General Suzuki Teiichi, who served in the ministry: "A country like the USSR, which will attempt to destroy our national polity, is an absolute enemy." This, compared to Chiang, who was merely a "relative enemy."

The Japanese aren't strong enough on their own to hold off the Soviet Union in the Far East, not by a long shot. Assuming they went ahead with their '38 invasion, they'll still be stomped by Zhukov. They can't count on China to side with them; assuming they're not tearing at each other's throats over Manchuria, there's enough bad blood between the Chinese and Japanese from the last half-century to prevent anything from materializing. Korea's going to want independence, and the Soviet Union's the most logical group to assist them. The Japanese are going to either have to go it their own, or turn to the USSR's avowed ideological foe, who also happens to be keeping their entire economy afloat with raw materials.

The Japanese will still have to come to terms with their relative lack of resources. The Americans will always how the strings to manipulate them, and the Japanese will downright hate that. There will surely be some degree of conflict between them and the United States at the very least.

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:The Japanese will still have to come to terms with their relative lack of resources. The Americans will always how the strings to manipulate them, and the Japanese will downright hate that. There will surely be some degree of conflict between them and the United States at the very least.

Maybe, but keep in mind that if the Japanese hadn't invaded Manchuria, then they wouldn't have had to deal with the issue of the oil embargo (IIRC, Japan was importing 80% of their oil from the United States). Assuming they don't go hard-core into Manchuria, and don't get to that bad of a point, then while they may not like American interference, they hate the Soviets worse, and America is their primary source of oil for their fleet and shipping.

This would have been a strange timeline, though. Weren't the Japanese interfering in China as early as World War I? Japan as regional military powerhouse in Asia probably would have helped keep several of the countries from going communist.

TC Pilot wrote:

Stas Bush wrote:Really? I thought the world would be more multipolar, since, you know, some nations get unscathed from World War II?

The Japanese leaders hated communism.

So did the Nazis. It didn't make them ally with the US.

TC Pilot wrote:The Japanese are going to either have to go it their own, or turn to the USSR's avowed ideological foe, who also happens to be keeping their entire economy afloat with raw materials.

So why exactly would they choose to continue on this path of destruction after seeing how Germany gets crushed in 1945? Shouldn't that ring some bells to them?

Japan did what they did because of their belief in the divinity of the Tenno Heika. That's also why they wanted to have "all four corners under one roof". They wanted the world and everything in it to be the Emperor's by divine right. The military doctrine was shoehorned along with the prinicipals of Shinto (the idiginous religion of the Japanese) into the Empire's cult of Hirohito. If they had not invaded China or Korea then they would have been going against one of their most important beliefs. That is the superiority of the Japanese race and the need to save the continent of Asia from the Western Evil Liberals. The scenario is just not all that good in this case even though it's a bit better than reality in any case.

Stas Bush wrote:So did the Nazis. It didn't make them ally with the US.

You realize there's a difference between '30s United States and late '40s-'50s United States, right?

Stas Bush wrote:So why exactly would they choose to continue on this path of destruction after seeing how Germany gets crushed in 1945? Shouldn't that ring some bells to them?

Yes, it should. It will tell them they need to throw their lot in with the United States or they might be next. They're sure as hell not going to go it alone, and they're sure as hell not going to align with the USSR.

Japan surviving WWII unscathed isn't going to create some Red Alert III scenario.

Stas Bush wrote:

TC Pilot wrote:

Stas Bush wrote:Really? I thought the world would be more multipolar, since, you know, some nations get unscathed from World War II?

The Japanese leaders hated communism.

So did the Nazis. It didn't make them ally with the US.

Japan was already pretty close to the US before the war. It's not entirely inaccurate to say that much of Japan's war was "Made in the USA". There's an account that crops up from one of the carriers under attack by kamikazes. A Japanese aircraft hit more or less but failed to due significant damage. The tire was found and it was a pre-war tire with Goodyear prominently displayed.

If Japanese policy doesn't force America to chose between them and China, there's no reason to think the two countries won't remain on at least favorable terms. In fact the Axis powers were all generally on more favorable terms with the western Allies than the USSR and only their expansionist goals pushed them apart. If by the power of RAR! that expansionism is curbed then the alliances become much more likely.

It's possible that the Japanese might do something stupid enough in the postwar times to piss off the US, as they are less likely to turn to for help in America stayed neutral in this timeline (we certainly wouldn't be as intimidating as we were after 1945 if we just sit out the war), so they'd probably write Washington off like many of the boneheaded generals did in OTL pre Pearl Harbor. They might try reaching out to Great Britain, due to habit if nothing else.

A more interesting development is that Britain's Empire actually soldiers on strong, mostly, without Japanese interference. Britain doesn't turn itself into a US "un-sinkable carrier' and is probably able to conduct independent force projection, which might put itself at odds with a great many other nations.

Doubt it. Once India goes it is only a matter of time before the other colonies follow suit...and if nothing else, the globalisation of markets will probably drive the Dominions out as well.

Even if it were to survive with an expansion of the integrated structure shown in Korea/Malaya, I doubt it would be really capable of force projection. If you add up the '60s militaries of the Commonwealth, there'd only be a handful of WW2-era carriers and almost no heavy airlift.

The Japanese could be isolated enough that the Soviets decide to make a grab for them or at least neuter them by liberating Manchuria and Korea. Considering the historically shitty state of the IJA, the Red Army would run herd all over them once Soviet submarines dealt with their Navy, which had one of the weakest ASW capabilities of the entire OTL war.

The US or Britain might try to help Japan, but I doubt if they could move in fast and hard enough to make Dai Nippon still a relevant factor on the world stage.

Pelranius wrote:The Japanese could be isolated enough that the Soviets decide to make a grab for them or at least neuter them by liberating Manchuria and Korea. Considering the historically shitty state of the IJA, the Red Army would run herd all over them once Soviet submarines dealt with their Navy, which had one of the weakest ASW capabilities of the entire OTL war.

Are you kidding? Soviet WW2 submarines and crews utterly sucked and did spectacularly poorly. Japanese ASW was poor but it’s probably good enough to deal with that threat. Both the IJA and IJN will be a whole hell of a lot stronger without a war in China draining away all resources anyway.

Sea Skimmer wrote:

Pelranius wrote:The Japanese could be isolated enough that the Soviets decide to make a grab for them or at least neuter them by liberating Manchuria and Korea. Considering the historically shitty state of the IJA, the Red Army would run herd all over them once Soviet submarines dealt with their Navy, which had one of the weakest ASW capabilities of the entire OTL war.

Are you kidding? Soviet WW2 submarines and crews utterly sucked and did spectacularly poorly. Japanese ASW was poor but it’s probably good enough to deal with that threat. Both the IJA and IJN will be a whole hell of a lot stronger without a war in China draining away all resources anyway.

I was thinking of the post World War II Soviet Navy, actually. Though they did receive quite a technological shot in the arm from appropriated U Boat technology.

Pelranius wrote: I was thinking of the post World War II Soviet Navy, actually. Though they did receive quite a technological shot in the arm from appropriated U Boat technology.

U-boat technology was already outdated, the Type XXI and XXIII are the most overrated submarines ever. The Soviets did copy some of it, and kept producing simple patrol subs for WAY too long, before transitioning to meltdown prone nuclear submarines. It wasn’t until the 1970s that the Soviets actually began producing good submarines with the Tango-Victor III classes. Japan meanwhile dominates the choke points Soviet submarines must pass through to actually attack anything important. The base at Petropavlovsk wasn’t developed historically until the 1960s, never had full facilities, and of course, it has to be supplied by sea through those same choke points.

That's what I get for trusting Clancy's nonfiction book on Submarines, with his claim about the several hundred Soviet submarines at the start of the Korean War.

They did have like 200 subs at the time, many of which were laid up and every single one of was a prewar design. The first postwar sub wasn’t launched until 1951 in the form of the first Whisky. From 1942-1950 the Soviets built no new subs at all, and completed only small numbers of boats laid down prior to the German invasion and left unfinished on the stocks. This is not surprising given that the Germans destroyed several of the largest Soviet shipyards. Whisky was not the worst thing ever, but it wasn’t fast enough submerged to outrun slow escorts, so it wasn’t going to be much more effective then a WW-2 Type VII boat, and it also lacked any of the advanced electronics (like periscope radars) found on late war American subs that made them so deadly against Japanese commerce.

However, Soviet subs would be operating close enough to shore-based air cover for that to make a significant difference in a full scale conflict between the USSR and Imperial Japan.