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Did the Samoan coal station crisis of 1889 have the possibility of escalating to full-scale war between Germany/United States/Great Britain? It seems to me that all sides funding the Samoan Civil War, and with warships facing off against each other, it could have been a flashpoint for the expanding powers of Europe. What could have happened if the Apia Cyclone hadn't destroyed the ships of both parties?

for those who don't know anything about this, here is a detailed summary.

At that point, the Royal Navy's dominance was so unquestioned that neither party would be willing to fight a war with it over colonial concerns, I'd think.

what about a conflict between Germany and the United States? Great Britain was observing the situation, I think, so I do not know if they would be a direct participant. But I think that both parties had something to prove in a conflict: Germany, being newly created and wishing to exert its power in the colonial world, and the United States, which was just beginning to take steps towards colonialism itself. I believe that Robert Conroy novel "1901" extrapolates this scenario, but I am not sure if the events in that book were supposed to be caused at an earlier time or not.

How is Germany going to do any reasonable damage to the United States at this period? Bismarck was still around at this point even though Wilhelm II was already causing trouble for him. More importantly, the German Navy is still relatively small since the naval expansion under Wilhelm hasn't occured yet. At most there would be naval skirmishes, but Bismarck would realize that a fight over Samoa would be useless and make peace with the U.S. even with Wilhelm breathing down his neck.

Simon_Jester wrote:At that point, the Royal Navy's dominance was so unquestioned that neither party would be willing to fight a war with it over colonial concerns, I'd think.

Simon, Germany had a real presence in this part of the world - they occupied Papua for instance. A crusty old lecturer at Sydney Uni's law department opinined that the Germans were, given the standards of the time, somewhat enlightened administrators in Papaua.

They had bases in the area, but they didn't have the power to hold those bases in the face of the Royal Navy, because the British had vastly superior fleet presence. In even a relatively minor colonial war, the British could easily have deployed enough colonial troops to seize any German colony they wanted, and the Germans would be powerless to reinforce the colonies. This was before the major German naval buildup in the runup to World War One, and even after that buildup they still proved unable to contest the world-ocean.

A war with Britain would be a disaster for Germany in this time period, because they lacked any viable way of winning, and because Britain was the only really major European power that the Germans hadn't already started to estrange.

A war with the US might not be a disaster, but at best it would be a humiliating farce, with neither side able to do anything effective against the other.

The German Navy could sweep the seas against the terrifying US opposition of wooden frigates... And then couldn't exploit it in any damned way whatsoever. Yep, farce is the best way to describe such a conflict.

I... think 1889 was when the US Navy was just beginning its post-Civil War modernization program. There were a few modern or semi-modern ships in the fleet, but not enough to be worth writing home about. And no battleship-grade ships, unless I'm mistaken.

But yes, the USN was in a pretty woeful state at the time, by the standards of the European powers.

Actually, the US will take this one. Why? They had a battleline of 6 heavy units (2 Kearsage class, 3 Indiana class, USS Maine, USS Texas), whereas the German Navy only had the sachsen class frigates in commission as heavy oceangoing ships, and these are heavily outmatched. So the US will take this one.

Do not forget that the German Navy was practically created in the 1890s, not sooner.

Thanas wrote:Actually, the US will take this one. Why? They had a battleline of 6 heavy units (2 Kearsage class, 3 Indiana class, USS Maine, USS Texas), whereas the German Navy only had the sachsen class frigates in commission as heavy oceangoing ships, and these are heavily outmatched. So the US will take this one.

Do not forget that the German Navy was practically created in the 1890s, not sooner.

Thanas, the battleships you metion were also launched or laid down in approximately 1890...

Raesene wrote:

Thanas wrote:Actually, the US will take this one. Why? They had a battleline of 6 heavy units (2 Kearsage class, 3 Indiana class, USS Maine, USS Texas), whereas the German Navy only had the sachsen class frigates in commission as heavy oceangoing ships, and these are heavily outmatched. So the US will take this one.

Do not forget that the German Navy was practically created in the 1890s, not sooner.

Thanas, the battleships you metion were also launched or laid down in approximately 1890...

Crap, somehow I got 1898 instead of 1889 for the american units while keeping 1889 for the Germans...still, Germany has only the Sachsen class. Not good odds at all.

Thanas wrote:

Raesene wrote:

Thanas wrote:Actually, the US will take this one. Why? They had a battleline of 6 heavy units (2 Kearsage class, 3 Indiana class, USS Maine, USS Texas), whereas the German Navy only had the sachsen class frigates in commission as heavy oceangoing ships, and these are heavily outmatched. So the US will take this one.

Do not forget that the German Navy was practically created in the 1890s, not sooner.

Thanas, the battleships you metion were also launched or laid down in approximately 1890...

Crap, somehow I got 1898 instead of 1889 for the american units while keeping 1889 for the Germans...still, Germany has only the Sachsen class. Not good odds at all.

There are the older sailing/steam casemate ships (like SMS Kaiser, later rebuilt as Großer Kreuzer) and the Oldenburg. I have no idea what the USN had available at that time.

Raesene wrote:
There are the older sailing/steam casemate ships (like SMS Kaiser, later rebuilt as Großer Kreuzer) and the Oldenburg. I have no idea what the USN had available at that time.

Yep, the older ships will actually be more useful here. The USN in 1889 just has monitors, steam frigates, and a couple of unarmoured/lightly armoured cruisers.

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:

Raesene wrote:
There are the older sailing/steam casemate ships (like SMS Kaiser, later rebuilt as Großer Kreuzer) and the Oldenburg. I have no idea what the USN had available at that time.

Yep, the older ships will actually be more useful here. The USN in 1889 just has monitors, steam frigates, and a couple of unarmoured/lightly armoured cruisers.

The German ships, however, have no bases. The SMS Kaiser utterly depended on british and japanese support for everything. The SMS Oldenburg was only designed for coastal defence work.

Okay, looking over the German inventory:

Armored frigates:
- Arminius (1864) - unsuitable, as she is a monitor and also a schoolship by this time
- SMS Kronprinz (1867) - maybe available
- SMS Friedrich Carl (1867) - maybe available
- SMS König Wilhelm (1868) - available
- SMS Hansa (1872) - available
- 2 Preußen Class frigates - available, range ~2000 nm
- 2 Kaiser class frigates - available, range ~ 2500 nm
- 4 Sachsen class frigates - available, but designed for baltic conditions and ~ 2000 nm

Kreuzerfregatten:
- SMS Bismarck
- SMS Blücher
- SMS Stosch
- SMS Moltke
- SMS Gneisenau
- SMS Stein

Panzerschiffe:
- SMS Oldenburg - unsuitable
- SMS Siegfried - unsuitable

Light cruisers:
- SMS Greif
- SMS Schwalbe
- SMS Sperber
- SMS Irene
- SMS Prinzess Wilhelm
- SMS Wacht
- SMS Jagd


So we have got a total of:
- 12 armored frigates (but only 6 guaranteed to be available for this kind of service)
- 6 Cruiser frigates
- 7 light cruisers (who may or may not be available for this kind of service)

So that leaves us with 12 frigates at least. However, there is still no base.

They don’t need a base, just an anchorage primarily. Coal and repair facilities can both be placed on hulks and moved ashore when possible. Key West would be more or less wide open to attack at this point, and once fortified by a division or more of German infantry with coastal artillery (which can be installed in weeks, field guns on fixed mounts in hours) it’d be impossible to retake until the US had a bunch of steel battleships. Key West should basically anyone’s number one target when commencing a naval attack on the US.

Establishing a base in the Outer Banks might also be feasible, but it’d require a much more substantial investment to do so. Two base like this could at least provide grounds for an attempted blockade of the American coast. They could also refuel warships sufficiently to allow them to support large scale raids staged out of Germany, but every American coastal city is quickly going to be ringed in earthworks. Its within comprehension that the US would basically dig a trench from Texas to Maine.

The main trouble is since a complete German blockade is impossible, not enough ships or bases; the US will be able to import huge masses of modern guns from England and France. Within six months to a year this will have largely made up for the fact that the US in 1889 had virtually no modern artillery of any form at all.

Thanas wrote: Okay, looking over the German inventory:

Some corrections from Conway's 1860 - 1905 lead to the following amended list with my comments in bold:
(note that a ringkanonen is a rifled artillery piece of 1860s/1870s vintage)

Armored frigates:
- Arminius (1864) - unsuitable, as she is a monitor and also a schoolship by this time Absolutely correct
- SMS Kronprinz (1867) - maybe available Available, was not hulked until 1901. Was armed with six 37mm hotchkiss revolvers and 5 x 350mm torpedo tubes in addition to an original armament of 16 x 21cm ringkanonen. Still ship rigged.
- SMS Friedrich Carl (1867) - maybe available Available, was not turned into a torpedo school ship until 1892. Was armed with six 37mm hotchkiss revolvers and 5 x 350mm torpedo tubes in addition to an original armament of 16 x 21cm ringkanonen.Still ship rigged
- SMS König Wilhelm (1868) - available Available and fully operational. Was armed with 18 x 24cm ringkanonen, 4 x 21cm ringkanonen, 7 x 15cm Krupp BLR, 4 x 8cm Krupp BLR, six 37mm hotchkiss revolvers and 5 x 350mm torpedo tubes. Still ship rigged
- SMS Hansa (1872) - available NOT available--hulked in 1888 due to rapid deteoriation of her hull.
- 2 Preußen Class frigates - available, range ~2000 nm Fully available. Still fully ship-rigged so could move under sail, armed with 4 x 26cm ringkanonen, 2 x 17cm ringkanonen, these were turret ships
- 2 Kaiser class frigates - available, range ~ 2500 nm Fully available. Armed with 8 x 26cm ringkanonen, 7 x 15cm Krupp BLR, 4 x 8cm Krupp BLR, 6 x 37mm hotchkiss revolvers. Still fully rigged and able to sail.
- 4 Sachsen class frigates - available, but designed for baltic conditions and ~ 2000 nm Available for coastal defence but useless outside of the Baltic.

Kreuzerfregatten:
- SMS Bismarck
- SMS Blücher
- SMS Stosch
- SMS Moltke
- SMS Gneisenau
- SMS Stein - These six ships were all of one class and armed with 12 - 16 x 15cm, some with 2 x 8.8cm, and 6 x 37mm revolvers, two 350mm TTs on some as well. Iron hulled ship-rigged screw corvettes.
-- Add SMS Victoria, not hulked until 1891 and armed with 4 x 15cm ringkanonen, 6 x 12cm ringkanonen, and 1 x 8cm ringkanone as well as 6 x 37mm hotchkiss--a wooden flush deck screw corvette, but so was half the USN in 1889.
-- Add three ships of Ariadne class, Ariadne, Luise, Freya: Armed with 6 x 15cm, 2 x 12cm, or 8 x 15cm in case of Freya, as well as 4 x 37mm hotchkiss revolvers. These were wooden ship rigged screw corvettes.
-- Add two ships of Leipzig class, wooden ship rigged screw corvettes armed with 12 x 17cm, 4 x 37mm revolving cannon, 2 x 350mm TTs. Ship rigged.
-- Add three ships of Carola class iron flush-decked screw corvettes armed with 10 x 15cm, 2 x 8.8cm, 6 x 37mm revolvers. Fourth ship was a school ship by 1889 (the SMS Olga). Ship rigged.
-- Add two ships of Alexandrine or Arcona class, 10 x 15cm, 4 x 10.5cm, 6 x 37mm revolvers, also iron flush-decked screw corvettes. Barque rigged.
-- Add corvette SMS Charlotte, wood-sheathed and barque rigged with an armament of 12 x 15cm, 16 x 8.8cm, 6 x 37mm revolvers (SMS Nixe was a schoolship and not mentioned).


Panzerschiffe:
- SMS Oldenburg - unsuitable Concur completely
- SMS Siegfried - unsuitable Wasn't commissioned until 1890, actually

Light cruisers:
- SMS Greif Rated an Aviso, armed with 2 x 10.5cm, 10 x 37mm revolvers
- SMS Schwalbe More of a sloop than a light cruiser, armed with 8 x 10.5cm BLR [maybe QF], 5 x 37mm revolvers
- SMS Sperber More of a sloop than a light cruiser, armed with 8 x 10.5cm BLR [maybe QF], 5 x 37mm revolvers
- SMS Irene Modern, good protected cruiser with a 3in armoured deck, wood sheathed for tropic service, 14 x 15cm, 6 x 37mm revolvers, 3 x 350mm TTs, very good, modern ship.
- SMS Prinzess Wilhelm Modern, good protected cruiser with a 3in armoured deck, wood sheathed for tropic service, 14 x 15cm, 6 x 37mm revolvers, 3 x 350mm TTs, very good, modern ship.
- SMS Wacht An Aviso, 3 x 10.5cm, 3 x 350mm TT.
- SMS Jagd An Aviso, 3 x 10.5cm, 3 x 350mm TT.

So the German fleet available for foreign operations is:

7 x armoured frigates (the capital ships of their day) with elderly main batteries but a modern secondary armament and torpedoes. All still with sailing rigs.
12 x iron-hulled screw corvettes with sailing rigs and a similar mix of elderly and modern armament.
6 x wooden-hulled screw corvettes with sailing rigs and mostly elderly armament.
2 x modern protected cruisers.
3 x modern Avisos (dispatch boats), sort of very small cruisers or fast gunboats.
2 x glorified colonial service sloops.

In comparison the US Navy's effective fleet was (assuming the typhoon didn't happen here leading to the war):

2 x Atlanta-class cruisers, slow, 3,200 ton protected cruisers with a speed of 13kts and an armament of 2 x 8in/30cal BLR, 6 x 6in/30cal BLR, 2 x 6pdr QF, 2 x 3pdr QF, 2 x 1pdr revolver.
USS Chicago, 4,864 tons full load, with a steel 1.5in protected deck over the machinery, 0.75in over the magazines, armed with 4 x 8in/30cal, 8 x 6in/30cal, 2 x 5in/30cal, 2 x 6pdr, 2 x 1pdr revolvers, capable of 14kts.
USS Charleston -- commissions in December of 1889, so can probably be rushed into service for the war. Armed with 2 x 8in/35cal, 6 x 6in/30cal, 4 x 6pdr, 2 x 3pdr, 2 x 1pdr, 2in steel barbettes, 2in protective deck with 3in slopes, 18.9kts--best ship in the fleet.
USS Baltimore -- also might be rushed into service, was historically commissioned January 7th of 1890. Armed with 4 x 8in/35cal, 6 x 6in/30cal, 4 x 6pdr, 2 x 3pdr, 2 x 1pdr revolver, capable of 19kts.
1 x 31-ton torpedo boat, USS Stiletto, armed with 2 torpedoes.
1 x 1,486 ton Aviso armed with 1 x 6in/30cal, 2 x 6pdr, 4 x 47mm (3pdr) revolving cannon.
1 x Yorktown class patrol gunboat armed with 6 x 6in/30cal, 4 x 6pdr, 4 x 1pdr revolver, 16kts, 1,710 tons, no armour except conning tower.
1 x Petrel class patrol gunboat, 4 x 6in/30cal, 2 x 3pdr, 2 x 1pdr revolver, 11.4kts, 867 tons.

Old ships still in regular commission:

1 x wooden screw frigate with an iron ram, armed with rifled muzzle loading cannon. Unarmoured.
16 x wooden screw sloops, armed almost exclusively with RMLs and a couple of 5.3in BLRs at best. Unarmoured.
6 x Canonicus class coastal defence monitors armed with 2 x 15in SBs.
8 x Passaic class coastal defence monitors armed with 1 x 15in SB and 1 x 8in RML, or 1 x 15in SB and 1 x 11in SB, or 2 x 15in SB.
1 x screw gunboat armed with 1 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 2 x 9in SB, and two "smaller guns" (probably 32pdrs).
1 x Sassacus class sidewheel gunboat.
1 x Mohongo class side-wheel gunboat.

ADDENDUM:

For completeness it must be noted that the Kaiserliche Marine also had 11 iron-hulled and rigged gunboats armed with usually 1 x 15cm and 2 x 12cm and a couple of light guns, or a similar armament, and capable of long voyages under sail for colonial service. These ships would despite being small gunboats be able to fight to very good effect with their more modern breechloaders firing with cocoa powder against the elderly US wooden sloops armed with RMLs and even some smoothbores. Coastal ships are included for the USN but not the Kaiserliche Marine under the assumption that the US coast will be threatened by a base at Key West, but the German coast will not be in any conceivable situation due to the reserve of the four Sachsens and the Oldenburg (and shortly thereafter the Siegfried).

If Germany asks nicely, Austria-Hungary might sell/loan them the three then-new Panther-class cruisers.
These ships (and their successors then planning) could still be sailed, reducing the need for coal on foreign stations.

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:In comparison the US Navy's effective fleet was (assuming the typhoon didn't happen here leading to the war):

2 x Atlanta-class cruisers, slow, 3,200 ton protected cruisers with a speed of 13kts and an armament of 2 x 8in/30cal BLR, 6 x 6in/30cal BLR, 2 x 6pdr QF, 2 x 3pdr QF, 2 x 1pdr revolver.
USS Chicago, 4,864 tons full load, with a steel 1.5in protected deck over the machinery, 0.75in over the magazines, armed with 4 x 8in/30cal, 8 x 6in/30cal, 2 x 5in/30cal, 2 x 6pdr, 2 x 1pdr revolvers, capable of 14kts.
USS Charleston -- commissions in December of 1889, so can probably be rushed into service for the war. Armed with 2 x 8in/35cal, 6 x 6in/30cal, 4 x 6pdr, 2 x 3pdr, 2 x 1pdr, 2in steel barbettes, 2in protective deck with 3in slopes, 18.9kts--best ship in the fleet.
USS Baltimore -- also might be rushed into service, was historically commissioned January 7th of 1890. Armed with 4 x 8in/35cal, 6 x 6in/30cal, 4 x 6pdr, 2 x 3pdr, 2 x 1pdr revolver, capable of 19kts.
1 x 31-ton torpedo boat, USS Stiletto, armed with 2 torpedoes.
1 x 1,486 ton Aviso armed with 1 x 6in/30cal, 2 x 6pdr, 4 x 47mm (3pdr) revolving cannon.
1 x Yorktown class patrol gunboat armed with 6 x 6in/30cal, 4 x 6pdr, 4 x 1pdr revolver, 16kts, 1,710 tons, no armour except conning tower.
1 x Petrel class patrol gunboat, 4 x 6in/30cal, 2 x 3pdr, 2 x 1pdr revolver, 11.4kts, 867 tons.

Old ships still in regular commission:

1 x wooden screw frigate with an iron ram, armed with rifled muzzle loading cannon. Unarmoured.
16 x wooden screw sloops, armed almost exclusively with RMLs and a couple of 5.3in BLRs at best. Unarmoured.
6 x Canonicus class coastal defence monitors armed with 2 x 15in SBs.
8 x Passaic class coastal defence monitors armed with 1 x 15in SB and 1 x 8in RML, or 1 x 15in SB and 1 x 11in SB, or 2 x 15in SB.
1 x screw gunboat armed with 1 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 2 x 9in SB, and two "smaller guns" (probably 32pdrs).
1 x Sassacus class sidewheel gunboat.
1 x Mohongo class side-wheel gunboat.

I think I'm missing a few screw sloops when I count, because I'm only getting 13: there are the 2 Ossipee (Ossipee and Juniata), the 6 Galena (Galena, Marion, Mohican, Quinnebaug, Swatara, Vandalia), and the 5 Enterprise (Enterprise, Adams, Alliance, Nipsic, Essex).
There are also five corvettes, although I believe only the Richmond has any rifled guns, and that's only a single 6". Brooklyn, Hartford, Lancaster, and Pensacola are all smoothbore corvettes.

Raesene wrote:If Germany asks nicely, Austria-Hungary might sell/loan them the three then-new Panther-class cruisers.
These ships (and their successors then planning) could still be sailed, reducing the need for coal on foreign stations.

Two, not three - Panther and Leopard. They were designed to lead torpedo boat flotillas, though, and were heavily undergunned with only a pair of 12cm cannon, mounted on the sides.

The Dark wrote:

Raesene wrote:If Germany asks nicely, Austria-Hungary might sell/loan them the three then-new Panther-class cruisers.
These ships (and their successors then planning) could still be sailed, reducing the need for coal on foreign stations.

Two, not three - Panther and Leopard. They were designed to lead torpedo boat flotillas, though, and were heavily undergunned with only a pair of 12cm cannon, mounted on the sides.

Three: Panther, Leopard and Tiger; the latter was rebuilt as admiralty yacht SMS Lacroma in 1905/06 (and was slightly larger than her half-sisters).

These ships also carried several 4.7cm guns and torpedo tubes.

Screw sloops:

USS Juniata
USS Ossipee
-- One class, armed with 1 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 6 x 9in SB, and 3 - 4 x "smaller guns", 1,934 tons, 10kts.

USS Astoria - 1 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 10 x 9in SB, and 7 x smaller guns. 2,394 tons, 12kts.

Galena/Vandalida class (six ships): 1,900 tons for first five, Vandalia 2,033 tons, universal armament of 1 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 6 x 9in SB, 3 - 4 "smaller guns", first five for 11kts, Vandalia, 12kts.

USS Kearsarge -- 1,575 tons, 2 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 4 x 9in SB "and smaller guns", 12kts.

Enterprise class (five ships) -- 1,375 tons, 1 x 8in RML, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 4 x 9in SB, and 2 - 4 smaller guns, 11kts.

Alert class (two ships): 1,020 tons, 10kts, 1 x 5.3in BLR, 1 x 11in SB, 2 x 9in SB, 4 smaller guns on the one ship in service: USS Ranger was being used as a survey ship with just 1 x 5.3in BLR and smaller guns.

17 - 1 = 16 in service + one being used as a survey ship (can be rearmed).

And yes, I forgot to count the old pre-1860 screw corvettes:

USS Brooklyn, USS Hartford, Lancaster, Richnmond, Pensacola, ranging from 2,550 - 3,000 tons displacement; I just have no idea of their armament in 1889, though the 1887 armament tables should be somewhere, I'll check.

There's also the smaller USS Iroquois, 1,488 tons, the USS Wyoming of 1,457 tons is also still on the commissioned rolls.

The problem is that those seven ships may well be de-engined receiving ships or transport ships or so on, as it's not referenced and I'll check DANFS for further details.

DANFS analysis:

Wyoming was used as a school ship but had a 60pdr parrot rifle. Hartford had two 20pdr Parrots (small guns) as the only rifled guns. Richmond had 1 x 30pdr Parrot (small gun) as the only rifled gun. Iroquois had all smoothbores. Brooklyn all smoothbores. Pensacola had all smoothbores. USS Lancaster had 2 x 30pdr parrot rifles and then a battery of 9in SBs. All were however serviceable and armed as warships.