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On 13 March 1881, Tsar Alexander II was assassinated by the revolutionary movement the People’s Will. The initial attack, a bomb hurled at his bulletproof coach, killed the driver and injured guards. Unharmed, Alexander II, concerned for those outside, stepped out of the coach against the protestations of his personal guard. Another assassin threw a second bomb, mortally wounding Alexander II.

Ignoring the who, what, where, and how; let us assume that for whatever reason Alexander either avoided or survived this attack. How might this have changed Russian history? At this time, Imperial Russia had been generally dominated by conservative authoritarian principles. Yet Alexander, partially due to his education, had developed a more liberal, humanist outlook, and in light of coming to power during the Crimea War, had realized the degree of Russia’s backwardness. As a result, Alexander II worked to implement a series of reforms and modernization in an attempt to bring Russia into line with the more advanced Western countries of Europe.

Major Reforms:

Improvement of communication via railway lines – from 600 miles (965 km) to 14,000 miles (22,525 km). Resulted in improved economic conditions for rural areas as well.

Military reforms under Dmitry Milyutin:
• Improvement of military schools
• The Army Statute of 1874: Introduced conscription for the first time, making young men of all classes liable to military service.

The Emancipation Act of February 19, 1861, which led to the abolition of serfdom, despite bitter opposition from landowning interests.
• Pros: Serfs were given modest allotments of land, and it had a great psychological effect.
• Cons: The reform failed in creating an “economically viable class of peasant” and “helped to undermine the already shaken economic foundations of Russia’s landowning class.”

Judicial Statute of 1864:
• Improved and modernized Russia’s judicial system to be comparable with Western nations (modeled somewhat on France’s).
• Established the zemstvos, elective local assemblies that:
o Extended the area of self-government.
o Improved local welfare (education, hygiene, medical care, local crafts, agronomy).
o Helped increase rural literacy.

Other Political/Religious Reforms:
• Release of political prisoners
• Return of Siberian exiles
• Relaxing of disabilities on religious minorities
• Lifting of restrictions on foreign travel
• Relaxing of Russian rule in Poland
• Abolishment of medieval punishments

Overall, the reforms modernized Russia, ended feudalism, reduced class privileges, and spared economic development. While piecemeal, it was extensive.

Despite this, Alexander II was still a firm supporter of the traditional autocratic system and generally against a constitutional or representative government. Increased political unrest in Poland and radical movements in Russia strengthened these conservative views.

However, the so-called Loris-Melikov Constitution, an ukaz that he signed on the day of his death, created a number of consultative commissions that might have been transformed eventually into a representative assembly and constitutional Monarchy. Coupled with additional plans for industrialization and increase reforms for the serfs, it might have kept the rise of Communism from happening at all.

However even with Alexander II living longer, upon his death current history has him succeeded by his son Alexander III, who in a nutshell was an extreme conservative autocrat, opponent of liberalism and representative government, and supporter of orthodoxy, autocracy, and narodnost (belief in the Russian people / Russian nationalism).

With the initial layout, how could one keep the reforms of Alexander II and/or prevent Alexander III from taking the throne and undoing his father’s work. Following that how might these events work to undo the rise of the Communist party and the eventual October revolution and over-through of the Czars?