Democracies rarely attack other democracies (historically)
Posted: 2014-05-14 05:41am
This claim aka democratic peace theory has been circulating around for a while now. I believe its traced to Francis Fukuyama's "End of history" where its claimed democracies rarely fight each other. George W Bush and Bill Clinton made the same claim.
The implication is that it would be better to not only make non democratic nations democratic, but people automatically look less favourably on a country if they are not. After all they are more likely to attack us right in what is a perversion of cause and effect. Its like the US saying Iraq is more likely to attack us be breeding ground for terrorism because they aren't democratic and we have to attack them first. Oh wait.
I would like to discuss the claim in the title in the following ways. I will also put forward what I think as well as ask other people what they think.
1. Is the claim true?
a) Evidence for and against.
2. If its false (I contend it is) then why does this myth persists?
a) Note a lot of historical myths persists and its hard to pin it down why.
Firstly no matter how great your theory sounds, if reality does not match it, the theory is wrong. This is simply an application of empiricism and with empirical evidence one can find numerous examples counter to this theory. Since classical times I would argue its not true with Athens destruction of Melos during the Peloponnesian War and in the modern period with the conflicts between proto democracies like the nascent USA against the British in the the 18th and 19th century and between the USA and the CSA in the civil war. In fact wiki lists a whole list of conflicts between democracies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wa ... emocracies
I will also like to add a few other examples. What about democracies interfering with the democratic process of other democracies via funnelling money to support one particular side in a conflict? For example the US funding of the Shah in Iran and Pinochet in Chile to overthrow democratically elected governments. Or the US refusal to allow democratic elections in South Vietnam because they might vote for the wrong person.
Just given these facts I think either a) a person must be ridiculously ignorant or b) as dishonest as a YEC talking about evolution to persists with this claim.
The next question is why does it persist? I can come up with several possibilities, although it may very well be a mixture of both
i). Redefine what is meant to be democracy.
ii). Persisting Cold War thinking - that is the almost all conflicts can be based on supranational ideologies (like the Communism vs Capitalism / democracy dichotomy during the cold war), rather than national interest of the participants (which is of course not surpranational).
iii). Consolation thinking
Redefining democracy
I am to start with an argument I had against a racist who used the "redefine words to mean whatever he wanted" argument to illustrate it. He argued that multiculturalism was bad and gave an example of why it was bad - he used the British attacks on China in the 19th century (he was a Chinese racist in case anyone was wondering). When I pointed out this is bullshit because the British didn't have a policy of multiculturalism until the 20th century, he just redefined what multiculturalism meant. Apparently "serious" scholars rather than just internet idiots also use this tactic of intellectual masturbation as we can see below.
So if a democratic country fights another one, well one or both of them weren't really democracies. So the theory is still safe. If you think that's becoming a no true scotsman fallacy then you aren't the only one.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4017305.stm
Unfortunately one can point to the examples of the US interfering with Iran's and Chile's democratically elected governments as well to kill this idea.
Supranational ideology
Lets first set the stage. A recently published IMF report showed how trade in Asia has dramatically shifting from Japan to China. Keep in mind those two nations have historical and present day territorial disputes. Lets quote Japan's statement.
Therefore I suspect, countries think a) people who sided with the first world over the second world did so because of democracy and b) the same thing will happen again.
So I suspect Japan believes that if a country follows Japan's political and democratic it will take its side in disputes with China no matter how much money China pours into wooing those countries or irregardless of whoever is at fault. Thus even if they can outspend you, you can get more friends so it balances out. This is quite strange coming from Japan, who engaged in checkbook diplomacy against Australia and NZ when it came to whaling disputes (I guess Pacific Islanders were more interested in Japanese money than anime or something), but there you go. Which brings me to the next point.
Consolation
Niall Ferguson described the history of economic development as, and I paraphrase, first it was the rise of the West and now its the rise of the Rest. What is happening is that the developing world (and former developing nations) now contributing more to world GDP growth than developed nations, and will eventually have a greater share of world GDP the dominance of the industrialised countries will lessen.
Now if you feel bringing people out of poverty is great then no biggie. If you are a nationalist from these industrialised nations who screwed over other nations you might worry about your eroding influence. If you are paranoid you might worry they might want a reckoning or at least to change the international system so it no longer is as advantageous to you. *
However that's not a problem if you believe democracies rarely fight each other. Even if those former rivals have superior economies, if they are democratic we will likely not have a war. For every non democratic China there is at least a democratic India (at least according to Freedom House which shows democracies at around IIRC 48%). There will be no drastic change of the system. Although I would have thought if both sides have more closely matched military would have been a more reassuring fact than whether both sides are democracies.
Apologies that I couldn't spend as much time as I would like to clarify my thoughts, but I would like some input from those knowledgeable of history and geopolitics.
* For example even though India and Brazil have larger economies by several times over Belgium, they have less voting rights in the IMF.
The implication is that it would be better to not only make non democratic nations democratic, but people automatically look less favourably on a country if they are not. After all they are more likely to attack us right in what is a perversion of cause and effect. Its like the US saying Iraq is more likely to attack us be breeding ground for terrorism because they aren't democratic and we have to attack them first. Oh wait.
I would like to discuss the claim in the title in the following ways. I will also put forward what I think as well as ask other people what they think.
1. Is the claim true?
a) Evidence for and against.
2. If its false (I contend it is) then why does this myth persists?
a) Note a lot of historical myths persists and its hard to pin it down why.
Firstly no matter how great your theory sounds, if reality does not match it, the theory is wrong. This is simply an application of empiricism and with empirical evidence one can find numerous examples counter to this theory. Since classical times I would argue its not true with Athens destruction of Melos during the Peloponnesian War and in the modern period with the conflicts between proto democracies like the nascent USA against the British in the the 18th and 19th century and between the USA and the CSA in the civil war. In fact wiki lists a whole list of conflicts between democracies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wa ... emocracies
I will also like to add a few other examples. What about democracies interfering with the democratic process of other democracies via funnelling money to support one particular side in a conflict? For example the US funding of the Shah in Iran and Pinochet in Chile to overthrow democratically elected governments. Or the US refusal to allow democratic elections in South Vietnam because they might vote for the wrong person.
Just given these facts I think either a) a person must be ridiculously ignorant or b) as dishonest as a YEC talking about evolution to persists with this claim.
The next question is why does it persist? I can come up with several possibilities, although it may very well be a mixture of both
i). Redefine what is meant to be democracy.
ii). Persisting Cold War thinking - that is the almost all conflicts can be based on supranational ideologies (like the Communism vs Capitalism / democracy dichotomy during the cold war), rather than national interest of the participants (which is of course not surpranational).
iii). Consolation thinking
Redefining democracy
I am to start with an argument I had against a racist who used the "redefine words to mean whatever he wanted" argument to illustrate it. He argued that multiculturalism was bad and gave an example of why it was bad - he used the British attacks on China in the 19th century (he was a Chinese racist in case anyone was wondering). When I pointed out this is bullshit because the British didn't have a policy of multiculturalism until the 20th century, he just redefined what multiculturalism meant. Apparently "serious" scholars rather than just internet idiots also use this tactic of intellectual masturbation as we can see below.
So if a democratic country fights another one, well one or both of them weren't really democracies. So the theory is still safe. If you think that's becoming a no true scotsman fallacy then you aren't the only one.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4017305.stm
Ok, they also redefined the definition of international war too. BTW since the US engaged in torture ie isn't following human rights then by that definition, the US is not a democracy. I thought democracy was simply rule by the people for the people with elections the easiest way to gauge whether that is so.In his essay for Peace magazine in 1999, Rudolph J Rummel made the same point as Bush and went further to say "democracy is a general cure for political or collective violence of any kind".
To help his argument, he put forward a rigorous definition of the term:
regular elections for the most powerful government positions
competitive political parties
near universal franchise
secret balloting
civil liberties and political rights (human rights)
This meant that Germany, for instance, was not a democracy in World War I, according to Rummel. And Britain was not a full democracy in 1812-1815 in the Anglo-American War.
He also defined an international war as a military engagement in which 1,000 or more people were killed.
Unfortunately one can point to the examples of the US interfering with Iran's and Chile's democratically elected governments as well to kill this idea.
Supranational ideology
Lets first set the stage. A recently published IMF report showed how trade in Asia has dramatically shifting from Japan to China. Keep in mind those two nations have historical and present day territorial disputes. Lets quote Japan's statement.
This is a soft power vs hard power comparison. However I think the important thing is, Japan consider it important that people follow its model rather than China's. Now if you think money talks louder, you might go "so fucking what?" You can run your country the way you like, we will run it the way we like, and that doesn't preclude us from dealing with each other when interests (re : $$$$) coincide. After all, the Cold War wasn't just ideology. The West supported numerous dictatorships, cough Suharto's Indonesia, Pinochet cough cough through hard power, ie money and not because those guys were inspired by democracy and wanted to become like us. However if you wear rose tinted eye glasses you might think that those who supported the First World did so predominantly because they liked our soft power and liked our political model.Japanese officials say that regional influence goes beyond the size of a country’s economy. They argue that Japan — in partnership with the U.S. — offers a model of free-market democracy that other countries in the region aspire to emulate. China offers money, but no model, they assert. And China’s territorial ambitions give Japan shared cause with smaller neighbors.
Therefore I suspect, countries think a) people who sided with the first world over the second world did so because of democracy and b) the same thing will happen again.
So I suspect Japan believes that if a country follows Japan's political and democratic it will take its side in disputes with China no matter how much money China pours into wooing those countries or irregardless of whoever is at fault. Thus even if they can outspend you, you can get more friends so it balances out. This is quite strange coming from Japan, who engaged in checkbook diplomacy against Australia and NZ when it came to whaling disputes (I guess Pacific Islanders were more interested in Japanese money than anime or something), but there you go. Which brings me to the next point.
Consolation
Niall Ferguson described the history of economic development as, and I paraphrase, first it was the rise of the West and now its the rise of the Rest. What is happening is that the developing world (and former developing nations) now contributing more to world GDP growth than developed nations, and will eventually have a greater share of world GDP the dominance of the industrialised countries will lessen.
Now if you feel bringing people out of poverty is great then no biggie. If you are a nationalist from these industrialised nations who screwed over other nations you might worry about your eroding influence. If you are paranoid you might worry they might want a reckoning or at least to change the international system so it no longer is as advantageous to you. *
However that's not a problem if you believe democracies rarely fight each other. Even if those former rivals have superior economies, if they are democratic we will likely not have a war. For every non democratic China there is at least a democratic India (at least according to Freedom House which shows democracies at around IIRC 48%). There will be no drastic change of the system. Although I would have thought if both sides have more closely matched military would have been a more reassuring fact than whether both sides are democracies.
Apologies that I couldn't spend as much time as I would like to clarify my thoughts, but I would like some input from those knowledgeable of history and geopolitics.
* For example even though India and Brazil have larger economies by several times over Belgium, they have less voting rights in the IMF.