If the American Civil War happened today..

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-06-30 01:59am

I expect there would be a quick surge into VA from the DC area in order to build up a buffer zone around the capital.

Aeolus · Post by **Aeolus** » 2003-06-30 02:23pm

Howedar wrote:I expect there would be a quick surge into VA from the DC area in order to build up a buffer zone around the capital.

Falling back to New York or Philidelphia would be safer. DC is simply too close to virginia and undefendable. The South would almost certainly choose Atlanta as theirs. It's big, far from the front and wealthy. Southern industry would be in Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Kentucky and Texas. The Mississippi is still the The Souths biggest weakness. But industry is alot more equal than last time. So is population. The south would still get the bulk of the military, but if the war drags on replacing equipment will be easier for the North. Their are quite a few weapons factories in the South but the North has more mineral resources.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-06-30 03:48pm

Yes, over the longer term. But you can't just move C&C facilities at the drop of a hat.

irishmick79 · Post by **irishmick79** » 2003-06-30 03:59pm

Much would depend on how much the South was able to mobilze the national guard in the Southern states. That would form a strong nucleus for an army, and if they had units immediately at their disposal, they could perhaps capture the shipyards in NorfolK, and take whatever US navy ships happened to be in port. Given that the US naval ships would still be on US soil, I can imagine that most of the commanders would be highly reluctant, if not unwilling, to order any drastic measures that bring about great damage to the area. So if the south was able to move swiftly, they could seize large portions of the US navy in port before the Federal government could react.

willburns84 · Post by **willburns84** » 2003-06-30 10:29pm

And if anyone wants to use the nuclear option?

"Come back in line or we'll fill the stratosphere with your ashes."

Dr. Strangelove anyone?

Gotta admit, it'd be an interesting scenario...

Moreover... What would the various nations around the world do in response? The Federals probably wouldn't be too concerned with how Britain and France go on this one...

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-07-01 06:40am

willburns84 wrote:
Moreover... What would the various nations around the world do in response? The Federals probably wouldn't be too concerned with how Britain and France go on this one...

Civil
The South
Strikes Back
War

The biggest show in town,Lucas eat your heart out

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-07-01 07:07am

irishmick79 wrote:Much would depend on how much the South was able to mobilze the national guard in the Southern states.

The US National Guard is a Federal military force reporting to the Pentagon and with Federal funding. It's not the equivalent of the state militias of 1861 and most of it should go to the Federal side.

That would form a strong nucleus for an army, and if they had units immediately at their disposal, they could perhaps capture the shipyards in NorfolK, and take whatever US navy ships happened to be in port. Given that the US naval ships would still be on US soil, I can imagine that most of the commanders would be highly reluctant, if not unwilling, to order any drastic measures that bring about great damage to the area. So if the south was able to move swiftly, they could seize large portions of the US navy in port before the Federal government could react.

That didn't happen historically, in fact the USN was able to dispatch a ship from the North to sail down to Norfolk and burn the fleet and yard. Even with an increased pace of conflict there should still be some time for ships and aircraft to be moved out. Though the lose of its main bases would severely hamper operations. Though on the other hand Federal ground troops could probably seize and hold at least Norfolk from the start.

willburns84 · Post by **willburns84** » 2003-07-01 09:53am

Just had a thought - with America's attention divided, however long the war might last, that period would be the perfect opportunity for various nations to take advantage of... They would not necessarily be successful, but hey, they could always try.

China attacks Taiwan
North Korea attacks South Korea

and possibly more examples to follow...

irishmick79 · Post by **irishmick79** » 2003-07-01 10:23am

True, the National Guard is under federal jurdistiction so technically were the southern militias before secession. That doesn't change the fact that the Guard units do have strong ties to their repsective states, and can be called out in emergencies by the state Governor. Alot of guardsmen could find themselves in a situation where they would have to refuse the call from their state government, and I imagine that would be a very difficult decision for many to make. That's something that most of the active duty federal units wouldn't necessarily have to deal with.

Aeolus · Post by **Aeolus** » 2003-07-01 04:06pm

willburns84 wrote:And if anyone wants to use the nuclear option?

"Come back in line or we'll fill the stratosphere with your ashes."

Dr. Strangelove anyone? Gotta admit, it'd be an interesting scenario...

Moreover... What would the various nations around the world do in response? The Federals probably wouldn't be too concerned with how Britain and France go on this one...

well both sides would have access to nuclear weapons, and both can manufacture nukes, So I doubt either side would be too willing to use them.

Aeolus · Post by **Aeolus** » 2003-07-01 04:08pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:
irishmick79 wrote:Much would depend on how much the South was able to mobilze the national guard in the Southern states.
The US National Guard is a Federal military force reporting to the Pentagon and with Federal funding. It's not the equivalent of the state militias of 1861 and most of it should go to the Federal side.

You can't really believe that the national guard would fight their own states? They would go over completely to the states. I imagine a large portion of the armed forces would as well

Pu-239 · Post by **Pu-239** » 2003-07-02 01:16am

Crap... I live in northern VA...