What would happen if Hitler didn't invade Russia when he did

[TrailerParkJawa]

That was a problem only truly solved by 'pencil beams,' before that SAMs used nuclear warheads (ie Nike Hercules).

A little off topic but there is an abanonded Nike sight just a few miles from my house. The Ranger Center there ( its inside a park ) is one of the old barracks.

[Icehawk]

Allied jets primitive compared to the Me262? Do prey tell how so, considering the P-80 was still in combat in 1953 and the Me262 with its nine hour engine life was obsolete in 1946. Feel free to explain what would make any theoretical German next generation fighter so good it could out match opponents that had a fifteen to one advantage in number.

The Bell Airacomet was an utter piece of trash, and the P80 was superior but the US only had a few models completed by wars end whilst the germans had plenty of of 262's and already had far superior planes in the preproduction stage that could easily outfight the P80.

Keep in mind that im not arguing numerical superiority but overall tech level. If the planes like the HoIX and numerous other designes that were nearly complete were actually sent out, it would have been very difficult or nearly impossible for allied craft to fight back during dogfight engagements. The P80 could probably handle a HoIX but it would still be an overall inferior plane.

[phongn]

That was a problem only truly solved by 'pencil beams,' before that SAMs used nuclear warheads (ie Nike Hercules).

A little off topic but there is an abanonded Nike sight just a few miles from my house. The Ranger Center there ( its inside a park ) is one of the old barracks.

Pity that JFK killed ARADCOM.

[phongn]

If we want to go for a "SuperNazi Scenario," here's one brewed up on another board...

We're in 1947, the US has successfully tested a nuclear device (and managed to keep a lid on it). They've built up an arsenal of around 60 devices, all Mark 1s of average 10 kiloton yield (up a bit, down a bit, things weren't terribly precise back then). They have a production rate of around one Mark 1s per month with a single 15 kiloton Model 1561 every four month. Coming up is the 25 kiloton Mark 3 (one a month from mid-1947) and the 50 kiloton mark 4 (one a week from the start of 1948 ) . This is a somewhat faster production rate and reflects an acceptance of wartime engineering standarsd rather than peacetime. It means the devices shorter lives. By the way, Super (fusion device) is on the way.

Bomber force will be 500 B-36s, all jet equipped (the B-36s have priority for jets precisely because of the nuclear device). B-29s are there but mostly face the Pacific.

In Europe, the Germans occupy from the Urals to the Pyranees and from the UK to North Africa. They range into but do not hold the Sahara. In the east they have a hell of a partisan warfare problem in the occupied territories. That requires a major force commitment. Western Europe is relatively peaceful. Spain is doing a balancing act - pro-German enough not to be invaded by Germany, not pro German enough to be pounded by the US.

At sea, the Germans aren't so lucky. The US Navy and what's left of the RN have swept the seas of the German fleet. The Atlantic is a US lake. The US carriers are pounding the Western edges and there isn't much the Germans can do about it. Of their submarines, only the Type XXIs can do anything useful and they are hunted mercilessly. The older subs have an at-sea lifetime of hours rather than days. There are no transatlantic convoys to sop up Allied resources so everything goes into an attack fleet.

In the air the German jets had a temporary transcendence in 1944/45 but thats fading fast. The P-80 and the new Grumman F9F are marginally inferior to the latest German jets but they are enormously greater in numbers. Both the allies and the Germans have a problem; there isn't enough jet fuel. This forces them to keep piston engined fighters in the inventory (historically correct by the way - that problem took until the late 1950s to solve - know you know why the ANG kept Mustangs so long). The US carriers are running in, grabbing local air superiority, smashing targets and the defenses then pulling back out to sea before the germans can concentrate to match them. The areas the Germans stripped to do that then get hit by another carrier raid. The Germans know the B-36 is coming and are trying to do something about it but they have problems. Their older piston-engined fighters are useless; they can't get up high enough and fast enough to intercept. They have specialized high altitude piston engined fighters but they are too lightly armed and the performance differential is too low. The jets have a better chance but they have problems all of their own. Oddly the German plane that is best suited to a B-36 interceptor is the He-219. It has the speed, altitude, firepower and endurance to be a threat. The Germans are building them again (despite its shortcomings) and they have replaced most of the older twin engined fighters. They're taking a beating from the carriers though.

The Germans have spotted something else. A stripped recon version of the B-36, the RB-36 has been making runs all over Germany. They've tried to intercept and failed. Whatever's going to happen is about to start. They've heard a codeword but don't know what it means. That codeword is "Dropshot".

[Sea Skimmer]

Allied jets primitive compared to the Me262? Do prey tell how so, considering the P-80 was still in combat in 1953 and the Me262 with its nine hour engine life was obsolete in 1946. Feel free to explain what would make any theoretical German next generation fighter so good it could out match opponents that had a fifteen to one advantage in number.

The Bell Airacomet was an utter piece of trash, and the P80 was superior but the US only had a few models completed by wars end whilst the germans had plenty of of 262's and already had far superior planes in the preproduction stage that could easily outfight the P80.

Keep in mind that im not arguing numerical superiority but overall tech level. If the planes like the HoIX and numerous other designes that were nearly complete were actually sent out, it would have been very difficult or nearly impossible for allied craft to fight back during dogfight engagements. The P80 could probably handle a HoIX but it would still be an overall inferior plane.

A hundred or so is plenty? Sure..

Name something the Germans had in the pre production phase that was better then a P-80. And then please explain why no one placed it into production and the P-80 lived on into the 60's. Hint, the differences are actually insignificant and most German projects pipe dreams.

Anyway, numbers and producability are far more important then individual technical specifications. American and even the UK have an overwhelming advantage in that respect. Ignoring it is just stupid.

[beyond hope]

I'm going on hazy memories of reading "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" in the middle of a nervous breakdown, so correct me if I get something wrong.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I think that they might have successfully taken Moscow if Germany had been able to launch the assault 6 weeks earlier. That would have changed things. Now, assuming he hadn't attacked at all, I believe Russia would have continued honoring the treaty between them: they were scrupulous about that. In fact, trains with supplies were rolling into German territory from Russia right up until the attack on Russia was launched. So, Germany would have resources from Russia to help on the western front. That might have changed a lot: lack of raw materials was really hampering the Germans late in the war. That in fact was the reason that the Me-262s were so important for Germany: they flew on a lower grade of fuel than the prop planes.

[TrailerParkJawa]

I'm going on hazy memories of reading "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" in the middle of a nervous breakdown, so correct me if I get something wrong.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I think that they might have successfully taken Moscow if Germany had been able to launch the assault 6 weeks earlier. That would have changed things. Now, assuming he hadn't attacked at all, I believe Russia would have continued honoring the treaty between them: they were scrupulous about that. In fact, trains with supplies were rolling into German territory from Russia right up until the attack on Russia was launched. So, Germany would have resources from Russia to help on the western front. That might have changed a lot: lack of raw materials was really hampering the Germans late in the war. That in fact was the reason that the Me-262s were so important for Germany: they flew on a lower grade of fuel than the prop planes.

I remember somewhere reading or hearing that Russia had planned to invade Germany sooner or later.

[Sea Skimmer]

I'm going on hazy memories of reading "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" in the middle of a nervous breakdown, so correct me if I get something wrong.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I think that they might have successfully taken Moscow if Germany had been able to launch the assault 6 weeks earlier. That would have changed things. Now, assuming he hadn't attacked at all, I believe Russia would have continued honoring the treaty between them: they were scrupulous about that. In fact, trains with supplies were rolling into German territory from Russia right up until the attack on Russia was launched. So, Germany would have resources from Russia to help on the western front. That might have changed a lot: lack of raw materials was really hampering the Germans late in the war. That in fact was the reason that the Me-262s were so important for Germany: they flew on a lower grade of fuel than the prop planes.

I remember somewhere reading or hearing that Russia had planned to invade Germany sooner or later.

They had plans for 1942 and 1943 depending on how the situation looked. When they attacked its unlikely anything could stop the Soviets. Even with massive areas of there country in German hands for years the Russians still crushed the Germans and drove them back to the streets of Berlin.

[Icehawk]

A hundred or so is plenty? Sure..

Name something the Germans had in the pre production phase that was better then a P-80. And then please explain why no one placed it into production and the P-80 lived on into the 60's

A few hundred is far better than 2 or 3. The HoIX was, and it didn't get put into production because in real history the plant was captured before they could finnish it. It was very close to being completed though. However in an ulternate history such as we are discussing, I believe that development progress wouldn't have been hindered so much.

http://www.csd.uwo.ca/~pettypi/elevon/b ... go229.html

http://www.hotel.wineasy.se/ipms/stuff_ ... l_hoix.htm

HoIX links.

[phongn]

Whoa, flying wings? I feel sorry for those pilots - such designs are rather difficult to control without sophisticated flight-control computers. Even Northrup's designs, which were probably more stable as they were intended as level bombers, had major problems in that area.

[Icehawk]

I thought that at first too, but suprisingly though at least from what I have read the handling and controll characteristics of the HoIX were quite good, better than they had expected actually.

[phongn]

Any primary sources regarding the handling of the HoIX? Were those comments only from the primary test pilots, who were probably more skilled than the majority of pilots who flew them? I need some more information on that!

At any rate, they'll be massively outnumbered to boot, and the sheer weight of a carrier raid will not make their lives easy (the Atlantic Ocean belongs to the US Navy).

[Icehawk]

The test pilot was Erwin Ziller. It showed reportedly very good handling qualities, with only a shade of lateral instability (as we know today a typical deficiency of tailless aircraft)

From the second link I posted. Much of the other sites I have seen mention the same basic thing. I havent read any books on the plane though. I find there are very few resources out there on german planes like these.


EDIT: Just found a link on the pilot. Its written in German but it has a translation under most of the text.

http://www.pilotenbunker.de/Unbek_Helde ... _erwin.htm[/url]

[Thunderfire]

The german caught the russians with their pants down
in 41. The russians were about to modernize their military
in the early fourties. The germans will face a MUCH better
russian army if they attack later. Now a stable russian/german
alliance would be a completly different matter. This could
get very ugly for the allies. The BoB was a waste of resources
for the LW because their aircrafts are not designed for this
role. Going after the Med & North Africa would be a better idea
after the fall of france.

[irishmick79]

Hitler had already delayed the Russian invasion as long as he could have in order to launch an operation into Yugoslavia and Greece. The left over british elements that had been swept out of Crete and parts of North Africa were there, although in bad condition. Hitler delayed Barbarossa for three months while the Wermacht devoted men and materiel to the Yugoslavian operation. They could have harrassed the southern German flank and perhaps have ventured into Romania, disrupting that ally's ability to commit troops to the Barbarossa operation. I think three more months of summer campaigning for the Germans in that initial offensive would have changed the outcome of the campaign considerably.

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

I'm going on hazy memories of reading "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" in the middle of a nervous breakdown, so correct me if I get something wrong.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I think that they might have successfully taken Moscow if Germany had been able to launch the assault 6 weeks earlier. That would have changed things. Now, assuming he hadn't attacked at all, I believe Russia would have continued honoring the treaty between them: they were scrupulous about that. In fact, trains with supplies were rolling into German territory from Russia right up until the attack on Russia was launched. So, Germany would have resources from Russia to help on the western front. That might have changed a lot: lack of raw materials was really hampering the Germans late in the war. That in fact was the reason that the Me-262s were so important for Germany: they flew on a lower grade of fuel than the prop planes.

I remember somewhere reading or hearing that Russia had planned to invade Germany sooner or later.

Yes. Remember, Germany attacked Russia in the middle of a massive overhall. Stalin wanted to keep a war between Germany delayed until the Red Army was ready.

[Pablo Sanchez]

Yes. Remember, Germany attacked Russia in the middle of a massive overhall. Stalin wanted to keep a war between Germany delayed until the Red Army was ready.

In my personal opinion (from a long hobbyist study of the Commies, particularly Stalin), the Boss would have struck in 1943 or 1944. The Red Army would have been ready for operations by 1942 (the depleted officer corps would have been refilled, the doctrinal shift completed, and supplies ample). But Stalin was a coward and very savvy, he probably would not have struck until victory was absolutely assured.

By 1944 there's simply no way he could lose.

[tharkûn]

Hitler's plan was rather simple and his only real miscalculation was the resolve of the British. Hitler knew that GB would be piss hard to take. The only reason that Sea Lion was even on the table was because the British left so much equipment behind at Dunkirk. Hitler's goal was peace with GB, fortress europe with invasion into Russia.

The blitz works both ways, leavin Stalin in Poland is suicidal, a Russian blitz against sparsely defended Eastern european territory would have quickly hit major German resources.

Hopping to England just is not feasible. To do that Germany needed to be able to supply across the channel through the RN. The only way to do this is to outbuild the RN (many years to do so), use air to take down the RN (which means the RAF has to die first), or possibly incorporate the French fleet.

All peace with Russia accomplished was the ability to hit Africa and the ME hard ... Hitler can't get sufficient forces across the channel and he can't match the RN quick enough.

Now what would be interesting is if Hitler managed to negotiate peace with GB as Hitler desperately wanted. The Germans against the Russians without allied bombing.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Yes. Remember, Germany attacked Russia in the middle of a massive overhall. Stalin wanted to keep a war between Germany delayed until the Red Army was ready.

In my personal opinion (from a long hobbyist study of the Commies, particularly Stalin), the Boss would have struck in 1943 or 1944. The Red Army would have been ready for operations by 1942 (the depleted officer corps would have been refilled, the doctrinal shift completed, and supplies ample). But Stalin was a coward and very savvy, he probably would not have struck until victory was absolutely assured.

By 1944 there's simply no way he could lose.

....That is to look at events in retrospect. To Stalin, there was every likelihood that a war would resemble World War I, grinding down both the Germans and their Western enemies. Faced with serious opposition in the West, the Germans would hardly chance attacking a Soviet Union whose armed forces had been built up so heavily. After war broke out, senior Comintern officials were told that by 1942, perhaps, all the combatants would have been exhausted. It would then be time to strike west to support the revolutions the Party could forment.(24)

24. Ibid. 24-27

Excerpt from page nine of The Fifty Year War, by Norman Friedman.

[Howedar]

The HoIX may have been a funky testbed, but is there any indication it had the maneuverability and reliability necessary to be an actual fighter?

Not that it really matters worth a damn.

[Pablo Sanchez]

24. Ibid. 24-27

"Ibid" doesn't help if I don't have the book to look at.

Excerpt from page nine of The Fifty Year War, by Norman Friedman.

I don't understand what the point here is. If this was Stalin's assumption, it was spectacularly invalidated by the Battle of France and his plans would obviously change. But, assuming a German loss in the Battle of Britain, it would still work. With the British, supplemented by the USA later on, unable to create a ground force to expel the strong German formations in France, they would almost certainly concentrate on heavy bombers.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

"Ibid" doesn't help if I don't have the book to look at.

I was just quoting it in verbatim.

I don't understand what the point here is. If this was Stalin's assumption, it was spectacularly invalidated by the Battle of France and his plans would obviously change. But, assuming a German loss in the Battle of Britain, it would still work.

I was simply commenting that you were correct - He was planning for as early as '42, and though obviously his plans would have changed, he felt that with both sides exhausted the USSR had the material capability to overwhelm everyone as-of '42.

(Though that did assume internal communist revolts.)

[Pablo Sanchez]

I was simply commenting that you were correct - He was planning for as early as '42, and though obviously his plans would have changed, he felt that with both sides exhausted the USSR had the material capability to overwhelm everyone as-of '42.

Okay. I have a tendency to misunderstand.

(Though that did assume internal communist revolts.)

A rather large assumption. In most of the world, the communists suffered from either active oppression or were more quietly suppressed by the society itself. They might be welcomed if the entirety of civilian infrastructure was killed, a la Japan in 1945.

[Thunderfire]

Hitler had already delayed the Russian invasion as long as he could have in order to launch an operation into Yugoslavia and Greece.

The balkan didn't delay the russian invasion. The invasion couldn't be
launched earlier because the weather wasn't good enough.

[Vympel]

Hitler had already delayed the Russian invasion as long as he could have in order to launch an operation into Yugoslavia and Greece.

The balkan didn't delay the russian invasion. The invasion couldn't be
launched earlier because the weather wasn't good enough.

No, the Balkans did delay the invasion.