Help the Native Americans repel the European invasion (RAR)

[Borgholio]

The OP says we have 2 centuries till Columbus arrives, and we have the chance to change the outcome. I can only assume that we are allowed to stick around to see the results of these changes.

Yeah there's nothing saying you can't wait around longer to see what happens if you wish. You can return home whenever you like.

How easy is it to mine iron in the Americas? Are there areas where it's easy enough to find?

Bog ore was the common ore used during the Colonial period but there are large hematite deposits too. The Colonials used bog ore just because it was easier to find given the limited resources they had, but once they started to industrialize, they made use of other iron ores too.

Well if necessary you can have the box make lots of parts for things made from iron, like the cannons mentioned in the OP, and then use a furnace to melt them down. It's crude but it would work for a while, long enough to find local iron at least.

Sure, you could do that. Only benefit to that would be in forging iron parts for large machines bigger or more advanced than can be produced in the box directly. A primitive blast furnace could be made too. I recall watching a swordsmith replicate an Ulfberht Viking sword using techniques that were thought to be impossible using technology of that period.

[Purple]

Yeah there's nothing saying you can't wait around longer to see what happens if you wish. You can return home whenever you like.

But do all my magic powers (immortality, invulnerability etc.) remain? If so, I'd just set my self up for world conquest.

[Simon_Jester]

Hm. Interesting question. The box can produce tools. Can it produce a plow-horse? One of the limiting factors on native American civilizations was the lack of animal draft power...

True, you would only have to make sure the islands of the Caribbean are prepared. Either kill Columbus and burn his ships, or simply demonstrated European-level technology so he won't see them as an easy target.

The former won't matter in the long run because sooner or later someone will discover the New World. I mean, I've heard there are indications that Basque fishermen were already sailing to the Grand Banks before Columbus, and there were plenty of other maritime explorers wandering around the world ocean at that time and in the subsequent years. You might buy, oh, 5-15 years by ambushing Columbus, but you wouldn't get anything significant and it might cause problems with the locals later.

Establishing sufficient technology that one is not an easy target is a more realistic goal. I mean, heck, just disseminating the knowledge of iron working in the 1300s and early 1400s would do a lot to help with that. So would vaccination, although it would be hard work to get the vaccines spread far enough in time to matter.

The most difficult question I see is what happens if the sacrifice-happy Mesoamerican cultures survive intact. What would they look like after experiencing the revolutionary changes of the Iron Age and the Gunpowder Age? Would they be amenable to 'reformation' by introducing new humanist philosophies, or would they utterly reject these philosophies and insist on doing things according to a fanatical version of their own traditions, the way that, say, Islamic fundamentalists do today?

Important point. The box may be limitless, but the people aren't. If you want to teach them how to set up their own Industrial Revolution, you are going to have to teach them the basics of industry in the first place, and that requires resources-- iron, steel, and so forth.

How easy is it to mine iron in the Americas? Are there areas where it's easy enough to find? My understanding is that Europe benefitted from fairly easily mined iron sources from the late B.C.'s onward, but they never developed iron in the Americas until the colonizers arrived and found some small local iron sources such as bog-iron.

The European colonists never seemed to have too much difficulty with local production of things like iron tools once they got established and had enough surplus resources to build self-sustaining communities. And there were plenty of iron and coal mines in the Americas once industrial technology spread. I wouldn't think this will be a problem.

[Elheru Aran]

The European colonists never seemed to have too much difficulty with local production of things like iron tools once they got established and had enough surplus resources to build self-sustaining communities. And there were plenty of iron and coal mines in the Americas once industrial technology spread. I wouldn't think this will be a problem.

It was my understanding that apart from small scale near-surface mining operations, the large majority of *refined* iron in the US was imported until after the Revolutionary War? Things like axes, hoes, woodworking tools, and so forth. It wasn't until after the Revolution that the American colonies had to jump into refining their own iron on an industrial scale (conveniently close to the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution itself). Of course, it's right around that time that everyday tools and products started transitioning from being largely wood, ceramic, tin/copper/pewter etc. to iron and steel... I can't say I've ever studied that side of the equation in much depth, but I have done some research on historical woodworking as that's one of my hobbies and you can observe some of that there.

The draft animal thing is a very good point. The Andes do have llamas, but unless you go back enough that you can prevent the Holocene extinctions-- talking 10,000 BC or so-- you aren't going to have much capable of bearing loads. It may be possible to play around with domesticating elk, and if you want to get really crazy you might be able to domesticate bears, but I don't think either would be able to carry or pull much in loads. The Plains Indians did use dogs as draft animals for small loads on travoises; that's one possible option, but pretty small-scale.

[Borgholio]

But do all my magic powers (immortality, invulnerability etc.) remain? If so, I'd just set my self up for world conquest.

Yes they would, but remember that your goal is to make sure that the Americas are safe from European conquest. Once that's done, then I think it would be a reasonable request to stick around a bit longer to see how things turn out, but once it's obvious that the natives are safe, you don't really NEED to be there. So if you stretch out your time there just so you can be an immortal overlord...Q might object.

Hm. Interesting question. The box can produce tools. Can it produce a plow-horse? One of the limiting factors on native American civilizations was the lack of animal draft power...

The box is big enough for a decent-sized draft horse I think, but I don't know if that would technically be considered a tool. You COULD produce yokes that could be fitted to North American bison though. They're pretty strong.

The most difficult question I see is what happens if the sacrifice-happy Mesoamerican cultures survive intact. What would they look like after experiencing the revolutionary changes of the Iron Age and the Gunpowder Age? Would they be amenable to 'reformation' by introducing new humanist philosophies, or would they utterly reject these philosophies and insist on doing things according to a fanatical version of their own traditions, the way that, say, Islamic fundamentalists do today?

Yeah the Meso-American cultures are batshit crazy when compared to their Northern cousins. I would want to give help to the North American tribes first...as they were far less violent. They could then "persuade" the other cultures in the south to come around peacefully. If not, then while Europe ravaged the Aztec and the Inca, North America would remain safe. Since the box can produce educational material, it might be worth a shot to produce histories of the future so the Meso-Americans would be more willing to put aside the savagery and cooperate to fend off the Europeans. I certainly wouldn't want to give them gunpowder technology until they get rid of the human sacrifice stuff though.

[Elheru Aran]

Bison! I forgot about bison. It does look like they are difficult to domesticate, though-- too temperamental. It can be done apparently and if generations took the time to do it, it could probably be pulled off, at least for draft-animal purposes. Would need to breed their aggressiveness out of them-- apparently they're a greater danger to tourists in the American parks than bears are!

Amusingly enough, the Russians put some work into domesticating moose, so if you want to reach out to the tribes in what becomes Canada IRL, that's one approach to take...

[Borgholio]

apparently they're a greater danger to tourists in the American parks than bears are!

When my wife and her brother were children, they and their mom were trapped in a bathroom by a bison. It wasn't trying to hurt them, it just kinda stood there at the door and made it known he didn't want them coming out.

[LaCroix]

The former won't matter in the long run because sooner or later someone will discover the New World. I mean, I've heard there are indications that Basque fishermen were already sailing to the Grand Banks before Columbus, and there were plenty of other maritime explorers wandering around the world ocean at that time and in the subsequent years. You might buy, oh, 5-15 years by ambushing Columbus, but you wouldn't get anything significant and it might cause problems with the locals later.

Establishing sufficient technology that one is not an easy target is a more realistic goal. I mean, heck, just disseminating the knowledge of iron working in the 1300s and early 1400s would do a lot to help with that. So would vaccination, although it would be hard work to get the vaccines spread far enough in time to matter.

I don't know, stopping Columbus might get you a couple of decades, maybe even centuries. After all, Columbus had been a running gag in Europe because he claimed he could reach India, which everyone (correctly) knew was impossible. Giving him 3 half-seaworthy ships and a small crew was a wager the spanish crown was willing to bet on. If he doesn't return, people would just nod, mutter their version of "told him so", and continue expanding their reach into Africa and towards the Middle East. Only once they have developed bigger, faster and seaworthier ships in high enough quantity that they might try again (with more provisions). I'd assume you'll get a reprieve till almost 1600, when they had doubled in size... People might think that this is sufficient to reach India, and might try again.

Even if not - if you get vaccines, and get muskets/smoothbore cannons and Age of sail era ships in circulation, (which should be easily possible if you have 200 years run up time and the box) you, you should be able to repel any attempt of conquest, indefinitely, even if the whole armada came your way.

[Purple]

Yes they would, but remember that your goal is to make sure that the Americas are safe from European conquest. Once that's done, then I think it would be a reasonable request to stick around a bit longer to see how things turn out, but once it's obvious that the natives are safe, you don't really NEED to be there. So if you stretch out your time there just so you can be an immortal overlord...Q might object.

That pretty much removes any incentive for me to make any system that will last for a day after I am gone. The moment I see my date is nearing I'd start preparing it for its inevitable downfall. Most likely by removing access to 21st century medical technology.

[K. A. Pital]

I wouldn't mind. 250-300 years of "immortal overlording" over the most advanced civilization on alt-Earth which is bound to jump into space earlier is enough of a reward.

[Purple]

I wouldn't mind. 250-300 years of "immortal overlording" over the most advanced civilization on alt-Earth which is bound to jump into space earlier is enough of a reward.

I guess. But it's kind of sad that you have to leave them in the end.

[Borgholio]

I wouldn't mind. 250-300 years of "immortal overlording" over the most advanced civilization on alt-Earth which is bound to jump into space earlier is enough of a reward.

I guess. But it's kind of sad that you have to leave them in the end.

Sure I can understand that. But the goal is *not* to simply replace cruel European overlords with a cruel Purple overlord.

[Purple]

I wouldn't mind. 250-300 years of "immortal overlording" over the most advanced civilization on alt-Earth which is bound to jump into space earlier is enough of a reward.

I guess. But it's kind of sad that you have to leave them in the end.

Sure I can understand that. But the goal is *not* to simply replace cruel European overlords with a cruel Purple overlord.

Why not? Think about it. The way the world is now it's basically a mess. We have a mixture of nations ruled over by dictators and those ruled by rich oligarchs. The average human being suffers. And even in the rich countries where living standards are high the have-nots outnumber the haves by a huge margin. A benevolent dictator who actually does have the peoples best interests in mind would be a good thing.

And as far as candidates go an eternally living and thus very, very experienced god-emperor is the best possible candidate for a benevolent dictatorship. Such an arrangement avoids all the usual pitfalls of a dictatorship such as succession problems or having a bad or inexperienced leader. So as long as the dictator is benevolent, and I bloody well would be it's perfect. Plus I am a mostly ascetic person and do not really care much for wealth and material possessions so I would not even tax them much.

[orbitingpluto]

When I think about it, the primary problems for most Native peoples is a lack of thriving agriculture that produces individuals who don't have to farm or hunt to survive. If peoples of what-might-have-been the Americas are going to able to generate European-levels of technology or surpass it, solving the problem of more than enough food is high on my list. With increasing time for leisure or work other than farming, hunting, or gathering, there will be a gap that I can peddle knowledge in, and wedge in skills and jobs that might not have came about naturally soon enough to prepare for the coming of Eurpeans. Literacy is the next thing- talking devices are a nice way to offset the problem of literacy, but a good book is faster to skim through and use as a reference for technical or information dense subjects than recordings the spoken word. Leaving libraries and literacy in my wake will allow modern knowledge to persist and spread even after I floated down the river and moved on to a different group.

That's the basic plan, but it worries me that this will take awhile to build up one group, then head off towards the another. Ten years or more in one location doesn't leave me much time to canvass a wide enough area to inoculate and uplift the people most likely to receive not only Columbus, but perhaps other Europeans if things go slightly different. While I'll get better at the mentor/wizard thing with time, I'm fairly certain that I'll be crap starting out, and taking twenty years growing the beard in a different sense than simply growing out some facial hair is time I don't think I can afford.

[Simon_Jester]

The European colonists never seemed to have too much difficulty with local production of things like iron tools once they got established and had enough surplus resources to build self-sustaining communities. And there were plenty of iron and coal mines in the Americas once industrial technology spread. I wouldn't think this will be a problem.

It was my understanding that apart from small scale near-surface mining operations, the large majority of *refined* iron in the US was imported until after the Revolutionary War? Things like axes, hoes, woodworking tools, and so forth. It wasn't until after the Revolution that the American colonies had to jump into refining their own iron on an industrial scale (conveniently close to the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution itself). Of course, it's right around that time that everyday tools and products started transitioning from being largely wood, ceramic, tin/copper/pewter etc. to iron and steel... I can't say I've ever studied that side of the equation in much depth, but I have done some research on historical woodworking as that's one of my hobbies and you can observe some of that there.

Well, part of it is simply comparative advantage. There's not much point in putting in the time and effort to develop a domestic iron industry when ships are routinely crossing the Atlantic anyway and it's more cost-effective to create products you can sell to European merchants in exchange for tools. That doesn't make it impossible.

I don't know, stopping Columbus might get you a couple of decades, maybe even centuries. After all, Columbus had been a running gag in Europe because he claimed he could reach India, which everyone (correctly) knew was impossible...

If nothing else, the rapid increase in Atlantic trading will result in ships being blown out to sea (especially on the run down 'round the Cape of Good Hope). Moreover, the beginnings of the India trade will start to drive the rapid increase in ship sizes, because while you can more or less follow the coast all the way to India, it is a long sailing voyage and many important stretches of the route take place near hostile coastlines. By 1510 or 1520 the Portuguese will still (as historical) have more or less conquered the Indian Ocean, and the Spanish will be if anything MORE interested in trying to commission ships to see if there's a shortcut to the Indies. Or, hell, anything out there at all, because the Portuguese will have a decisive lock on all trade outside Europe otherwise.

One thing that may happen if you can get 10-20 years' delay, though, is that the generation of Spaniards who expelled the last of the Moors will start to die off. This may make some difference, because there will be a narrower window between the time at which Spain becomes a player in the New World and the time at which Spain is decisively distracted by the wars of religion and, ultimately, the Dutch revolt. If Spain does NOT succeed in securing the gold of Mexico and the silver of Peru in order to finance its war machine by 1550 or so, it may end up declining to the status of a second-rate power far faster than historically.

Of course, you will still have to worry about the French, English, Dutch, and Portuguese...

If he doesn't return, people would just nod, mutter their version of "told him so", and continue expanding their reach into Africa and towards the Middle East. Only once they have developed bigger, faster and seaworthier ships in high enough quantity that they might try again (with more provisions). I'd assume you'll get a reprieve till almost 1600, when they had doubled in size... People might think that this is sufficient to reach India, and might try again.

Again, you need large and well armed ships just for the India run. The journey is actually several times longer than a trip to the Americas, you spend considerable periods out of sight of land, as illustrated here:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _India.gif

These were the routes followed by actual Portuguese convoys trading in the Indies.

Moreover, the natives at all points along the way were at least in the Iron Age, and in East Africa and India proper they had some degree of sailing tradition and at least rudimentary knowledge of gunpowder weapons. This was not the 'easy way out' compared to the Americas, although sending one ship to India was certainly more lucrative than sending the same ship to the Americas.

There's a reason that some of the biggest, best armed, and fastest sailing freighters of the 1700s were "Indiamen." And even in the early 1500s, the Portuguese had large, capable ships during this period- carracks- that were smaller than the later Spanish galleons but quite large enough to sail to the New World and back. They had to, or they'd never have gotten their foot in the door in the India trade.

Even if not - if you get vaccines, and get muskets/smoothbore cannons and Age of sail era ships in circulation, (which should be easily possible if you have 200 years run up time and the box) you, you should be able to repel any attempt of conquest, indefinitely, even if the whole armada came your way.

Yes, but that's a separate issue. I was specifically addressing the point that trying to wipe out Columbus' expedition is probably counterproductive.

Hm. Interesting question. The box can produce tools. Can it produce a plow-horse? One of the limiting factors on native American civilizations was the lack of animal draft power...

The box is big enough for a decent-sized draft horse I think, but I don't know if that would technically be considered a tool. You COULD produce yokes that could be fitted to North American bison though. They're pretty strong.

It's an important question, because probably the single most important 'tool' the natives lacked in the pre-Columbian era was draft animals. Also note that domesticating a wild animal that, in real life, no one has domesticated is going to be hard; 200 years may well not be enough.

Yeah the Meso-American cultures are batshit crazy when compared to their Northern cousins. I would want to give help to the North American tribes first...as they were far less violent. They could then "persuade" the other cultures in the south to come around peacefully.

It's a pity we don't know more about the Mound Builder civilization...

If not, then while Europe ravaged the Aztec and the Inca, North America would remain safe.

This is rather repugnant, since a majority of all the human costs of the death and conquest of the New world happened in what is now Latin America- not because the Spanish were uniquely evil, but simply because they went after the most populated part of the real estate.

Since the box can produce educational material, it might be worth a shot to produce histories of the future so the Meso-Americans would be more willing to put aside the savagery and cooperate to fend off the Europeans.

"Savagery" as you put it was not the issue. The Mesoamerican cultures were quite organized and advanced, not a bunch of hate-maddened ogres. Insofar as they had issues cooperating... well, they did, but so did, say, the Greek city-states.

I certainly wouldn't want to give them gunpowder technology until they get rid of the human sacrifice stuff though.

I find it amusing to wonder whether YOU would be in favor of human sacrifices if YOU thought it necessary to keep the sun rising in the morning...

[Borgholio]

It's an important question, because probably the single most important 'tool' the natives lacked in the pre-Columbian era was draft animals. Also note that domesticating a wild animal that, in real life, no one has domesticated is going to be hard; 200 years may well not be enough.

Oh sure, I remember reading about how only having Llamas or Alpacas did hold back agricultural development in the Americas. But would draft horses really be necessary to prepare for Columbus?

This is rather repugnant

I didn't mean than in an apathetic way. I meant that if despite our best efforts, the Mesoamerican cultures remained too violent to trust with advanced technology, it might be prudent to do what you can and focus the bulk of your efforts on the North American cultures, which would be more receptive to education. Better to save some than none.

"Savagery" as you put it was not the issue. The Mesoamerican cultures were quite organized and advanced, not a bunch of hate-maddened ogres. Insofar as they had issues cooperating... well, they did, but so did, say, the Greek city-states.

I find it amusing to wonder whether YOU would be in favor of human sacrifices if YOU thought it necessary to keep the sun rising in the morning...

Well here's the thing. While I'm not condoning what the Spanish did, the part of their reasoning was that they needed to subdue the human-sacrificing savages and bring the peace and love of God to them whether they like it or not. Getting rid of the human sacrifice would go a long way to improving their image to Europe and making it less justifiable to slaughter them wholesale. If Europe arrived and found a million heavily armed natives that sacrificed humans on a regular basis, that might permanently ruin the native reputation and make things worse in the long run.

[Elheru Aran]

Well, part of it is simply comparative advantage. There's not much point in putting in the time and effort to develop a domestic iron industry when ships are routinely crossing the Atlantic anyway and it's more cost-effective to create products you can sell to European merchants in exchange for tools. That doesn't make it impossible.

Right, but that still doesn't quite answer my first query-- how *easy* is it to establish an iron mine, several in fact, and ensure a fairly uninterrupted supply of ore to refining facilities.



That's a map of iron ore regions in 1906. I'm sure there's a little more than that out there today, of course, and however long ago you start before 1906, there may be surface deposits that were played out by 1906, but it does illustrate the wide spread of iron deposits in the States at least. How many of those deposits can be accessed by a gang of men with picks and shovels, versus industrial excavating equipment, at least initially? How are you going to move tons of ore to refining facilities without miles of rail? How are you going to coordinate the hundreds of thousands of men needed to get such an operation done?

I've no doubt it could be done... but the magic box can only produce so many things at once. It may take a generation or more to set it all up. It's not going to happen within a few years.

[Purple]

That's why you do as I want and establish a religion, social structure and stuff meant to give you a population boom. That way in a generation or two you have ample manpower to press into hard physical labor for the sake of progress.

[Me2005]

That's a map of iron ore regions in 1906. I'm sure there's a little more than that out there today, of course, and however long ago you start before 1906, there may be surface deposits that were played out by 1906, but it does illustrate the wide spread of iron deposits in the States at least. How many of those deposits can be accessed by a gang of men with picks and shovels, versus industrial excavating equipment, at least initially? How are you going to move tons of ore to refining facilities without miles of rail? How are you going to coordinate the hundreds of thousands of men needed to get such an operation done?

I've no doubt it could be done... but the magic box can only produce so many things at once. It may take a generation or more to set it all up. It's not going to happen within a few years.

Keep in mind - This is the same country turned into the industrial giant in the world and it's only been a unified country for 239 years. Some of the infrastructure was established before that date, and the European settlers had an understanding of how to do some of the necessary base work before that the natives won't have, but you've still got 200 years in a bountiful country and a magic box that can produce most of the stuff you need to jump start your industry. As well as a 2000's understanding of science and technology. The hard part will be the diplomacy and getting the natives up to speed, not resource acquisition.

And shoot, just that one deposit in Texas is nearly the size of Ireland:

[Patroklos]

You know, if all you want to do is keep the Europeans away you don't need to develop an equivalent or even superior technological civilization. All you have to do is 1.) make sure the natives know arriving Europeans are just men, not gods or the like 2.) get them to understand European property philosophy and economics beforehand 3.) unite native nations into at least strong alliances but idealy proto nation states so that they can act with unified purpose and most importantly 4.) provide some sort of protection against disease. Even if you can't actally vacinate just have 200 years of the knowledge or germ theory and some basic modern medical practices like sanitation. Hell, even laymen like us should be able to develop penicillin with our basic skills and 200 years. You probably don't need to do even all of those things, even one of them would dramatically alter history.

The point is when Europeans arrived at the new continents they were outnumbered thousands to one. The Natives never lacked the resources, manpower, or martial skill to fend off Europe. If the natives had known what they were dealing with, were not hollowed out by disease and follow on famine in the next few generations, if they understood that they new arrivals were men like themselves and grasped their motivations from the get go, and most importantly were unified in at least denying territory acquisition instead of being defeated separately and in detail then keeping Europe out of the Americans would have been absurdly simple. The first 100 years of European explorers and settlers amounted to little more than random small bands vagabond bands of destitute outsiders with maybe a few "modern wonders" wholly lost in their new environment. Had the Native Americans unilaterally denied them a foothold there would have been no chance of them forcing one. Pretty much wherever Europeans went they made their position tenable not through brute force but by exploiting ignorance and disunity among the locals.

[Simon_Jester]

There were a number of places where European colonists made successful beachheads simply by colonizing land nobody else was using (due to plagues), and managing to hold onto that territory even when large coalitions of the surrounding natives grew hostile to them. That's a major part of the history of Jamestown and Plymouth colonies, for example.

However, in places like this, removing the plagues as a factor or at least limiting their effect would change the situation. Instead of being able to expand into the demographic vacuum left behind by apocalyptic plague outbreaks exterminating whole villages and leaving behind places for colonists to settle, the colonists would have to compete with extant, functional societies for the use of the land they wanted to occupy.

[Welf]

Sure I can understand that. But the goal is *not* to simply replace cruel European overlords with a cruel Purple overlord.

That may be a unavoidable result of the scenario. You give some guy immortality, magic powers and a possibly divine mandate and let him rule some stone age people for two hundred years. At some point he will be showered with constant devotion and religious reverence. That will have effects on his/her character. And even if they move on after 200 years or so they will leave a deeply religious society based on the idea that other peoples can be invaded and their cultures rebuilt for their own betterment. And they likely will have a strict top-down approach to government, also ingrained in their religious costumes.

[Irbis]

There were a number of places where European colonists made successful beachheads simply by colonizing land nobody else was using (due to plagues), and managing to hold onto that territory even when large coalitions of the surrounding natives grew hostile to them. That's a major part of the history of Jamestown and Plymouth colonies, for example.

However, in places like this, removing the plagues as a factor or at least limiting their effect would change the situation. Instead of being able to expand into the demographic vacuum left behind by apocalyptic plague outbreaks exterminating whole villages and leaving behind places for colonists to settle, the colonists would have to compete with extant, functional societies for the use of the land they wanted to occupy.

Well guess what - they did also the same in Europe, where there were extant, functional societies at the same development level. Spain? Reconquista. England? Cornwall, Wales, Scotland, Ireland. Germany? Half of it is on the land of Slavic tribes, with remnants surviving even today. France? The Occitan half of it was conquered, subjugated and Frenchified. It's hard to show one big state on map of Europe that didn't do that. Hell, you don't even need a state, look up VOC. You'd need to have literal superpower on the other side to avoid conquest, like Welf said. Do anything less and all you do is push the conquest date by century or two, like in India or China.

Hell, even laymen like us should be able to develop penicillin with our basic skills and 200 years.

Ha ha ha.

That came up as a point in time travel book I was reading recently. One of travellers had just this genius idea. The others shot it down pointing out:

A) How you find the right strain. Molds produce lots of toxins, one producing pure penicillin was found after years of search. Do you have any idea how to do that?

B) To identify it, you need a microscope. The one used in real life had 550 years of development behind it. Even assuming you can skip a few steps, you need precise micro- and optics industry. How do you make one?

C) Assuming you have A and B, what you do now? How do you even fucking grow your precious sample while keeping it stable? I have no idea. That is, I know you need Petri dishes and agar that is somehow made from algae, but how to go from that to mass production, I wouldn't know. Do you? Oh, and you also now need food processing industry.

D) Assuming you mass produce it, how do you store it? In real life, they mass produced glass containers for it (another industry) and kept it refrigerated (another) after producing them in factory (multiple industries needed). Whew, no problems here!

E) After production, how do you ship it? On airplanes? Wait, we don't have those. Cars? Um... Trains? Nope. Horses? Nope, we don't have these on hand. On foot? How much you can distribute that way and how fast?

F) Once you have all of the above, who will administer it? Where the doctors will come from? What they will use? Injections? Nope. Pills? Less precise, you need more. Oh, and you need them trained in germ theory so they don't waste it on viruses.

So far, we only need multiple massive new industries and professional class of people that wasn't built in 200, but in 500-700 years in real life. And these are only problems I can think of now. How many more you will face even if you spend your entire 200 years doing nothing but this? I have no idea. It's nice to say 'just produce penicillin' but progress in real life isn't something that can be skipped or cheated.

Had the Native Americans unilaterally denied them a foothold there would have been no chance of them forcing one.

Caribbean islands and Cuba. There, done, you have a base from which you can do all the conquering you want. How do you intend to deny them that?

[Elheru Aran]

Had the Native Americans unilaterally denied them a foothold there would have been no chance of them forcing one.

Caribbean islands and Cuba. There, done, you have a base from which you can do all the conquering you want. How do you intend to deny them that?

There were already tribes of natives living on most of those islands before Columbus showed up; he encountered a number of them. I suspect one would attempt to reach out to those tribes and reinforce those islands to prevent invasion.

Your point about the industry is important. It takes *time* to establish that kind of thing. I'm not sure you could do it in 100, but it's possible in 200. A powerful amount of education and forward planning would be extremely necessary, though, and the magic-box would be kept continuously busy cranking out whatever you need to facilitate this.

[K. A. Pital]

You have to make use of the box. Produce manuals for yourself first. If you are not 100% sure how to make something (penicillin), order papers on how to do it, and then think what could be done with preindustrial manufacturing.