The Underlying Principles of U.S. Policy.
Posted: 2003-01-14 05:20am
http://pub82.ezboard.com/fhistorypoliti ... 1024.topic - By Stuart Slade.
Something to be duly considered.
Something to be duly considered.
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Works a hell of a lot better than the OLD foreign policies of Europe,Enlightenment wrote:The only principles of US foreign policy are to tread heavily, speak loudly, carry a very large stick, and kill anyone or anything that is depriving well-connected American businesses from earning as much profit as they think they deserve. Everything else from human rights to the rule of law and the creation of long-term stability is utterly irrelevant.
Irrelevant.MKSheppard wrote:Works a hell of a lot better than the OLD foreign policies of Europe, which sparked the two single bloodiest wars mankind has ever seen in it's history....
....and that would be money. From what I understand, both France and Germany have a shitload in trade deals with Iraq, funny how they don't want to go to war with them.Edi wrote:Shep, keyword being old, if you take a closer look, you'll see that those policies have been largely abandoned for a more constructive approach.
Edi
Oh, I am in no way trying to say that the US is better than Europe in this reguard. I am just saying that Europe is not any better than we are when it comes to defending its interests. We generaly get slammed for protecting our interest and I find it humorous that Europe is hailed for its "lets not go to war" attitude and really its just looking out for its interests like we're doing.Edi wrote:Yes, but it's not only that, Knife. Deals made with a country are not necessarily nullified by the changing of the powers that be in that country, but are you seriously trying to say that the US would honor those deals and not reassign many of them up for grabs with favoritism given to American companies if Saddam is removed by force?
In that respect they're certainly doing no worse than the US in looking after their own interests, so what's to complain about? But in general Europeans are not as eager to swing the stick when their demands or goals are not immediately met. The US is a little too fond of swinging the stick first without even trying the carrot.
Edi
That's incorrect. The world is a brutally simple place. Humans, of course, are incredibly complex individuals: But in their interactions they often have behavioural tendencies, mainly in large groups, which can be shorn down to quite succint generalities. The world is a very simple, and admittedly very tragic place; but the later does not change the reality of the former. One can strip the interactions of States down into a few hundred sentences and paragraphs; everything else written on the subject is either elaboration on the firmament, or worthless tripe.Edi wrote:The world doesn't work that simplistically and anybody who espouses that it does is a delusional idiot.
Why is it pitiful to be something other than constructive? Such an attitude, Edi, is pitiful! You know why? Because it ignores reality! Humans are mercurial, shifty, and inherently contradictory; the irrational animal and the rational focus of Reason. You cannot have a consistantly constructive approach to politics - indeed, in relations with other humans, you cannot have a consistantly constructive approach at all!And if this is the most constructive approach that the US can come up with, then the leadership of your country is pitiful!
me wrote:And if this is the most constructive approach that the US can come up with, then the leadership of your country is pitiful!
In case you didn't notice, there was a liberal dose of sarcasm included in that, the exact point being that such an approach is generally NOT constructive. As for your contention that it is impossible to have a consistently constructive approach to politics and interactions with other people, I happen to disagree. You can have that by starting with an approach that looks for possibilities of mutual gain instead of singlesided gain and then comparing what the possible effects on innocent third parties are, and if the effects are excessively negative, then that would probably negate the gains to be had from any such deal (i.e. supporting tinpot dictators like the US supported Saddam in the 80s isn't acceptable). All you need is some modicum of morality and principles tempered with an appreciation of realism to manage it. That obviously disqualifies you, since you have the latter but lack the former almost completely.Duchess of Zeon wrote:Why is it pitiful to be something other than constructive?
Of course you will sometimes be driven to conflict with other people's interests, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should act preemptively against their interests in pursuit of your own. The consequences of that in a case of misjudging the situation are usually worse than what would otherwise have happened, and frankly, I don't trust your judgment at all. You consistently approach everything as a zero-sum game where you seek to maximize your own gain at the expense of others when settling for a little less and allowing the others to have something as well would in the long run lead to more gain all around.The simple fact is that sometimes you will be driven to act against someone else's best interests, and by the time you're driven to it, you probably will be worse off than had you done soon on your own accord. In relations with others of our contradictory and untrustworthy kind, the promotion of Self is the only sure method of both survival, and gain.
However before the recent "crisis" with Iraq, the European countries were putting preasure on the US to ease sanctions on Iraq and in some cases have just gone ahead and shipped goods over there anyway.Knife, I couldn't really care less about French and German oil interests in Iraq, I just pointed out that it's not in their interest to go to war with Iraq. Thing is, those trade deals are worth exactly zilch as long as Iraq stays under the embargo, so it's not like they get any more out of the current situation than the US does, perhaps less even.
No argument there. Any nation state will look out for itself first.When we look at US and European interests in a broader spectrum, both are guilty of screwing over the rest of the world in some respects, agricultural subsidies being one of the top offenses, if not #1.
I suspect it has more to do with the fact that the US has funded and participated in the defence of not only America but has commited cosiderable resources to defend Europe for 50 years. You are used to letting us take the lead in such matters. Used to letting us take the heat for such matters.But as for going to war in order to force other countries to act in a way that promotes our interests if it is not something that is a direct threat to us, you won't find willingness for that almost anywhere in Europe. Oh, we'll swing the stick when it becomes necessary, no doubt about that, but we don't do it lightly. The US tends to swing the stick rather more easily and often before it is a necessity. I don't know if it's the fact that we've had most of the countries in Europe ravaged by war and reduced to rubble twice in the past hundred years that makes us rather leery of starting a war for what seem rather light reasons. The US hasn't had a war on its soil since the Civil War, there is no collective memory of the horror of war on the home front, much less the horror of modern war with modern weapons. If there were, I suspect sentiments might be a little different over there.
Personaly I wish that Europe would keep its nose out of this one. I don't think that the current administration wants the international comunity to chime in on this one but was forced to by political forces both nationaly and internationaly.And when it really comes down to the wire, why the hell should Europeans join in a war against Iraq if it's US interests that are being pursued by it? The US has the capability, should it so choose, to level that country all on its own with no help from anyone else's armed forces, all it needs are bases to launch attacks from.
The opposite of war is not always peace. Repression and oppression can kill just as many as war can. Any while oil can not be discounted as a factor in the current crisis in Iraq, I don't see it as such a big thing as others would portray it. There would be easier and cheaper ways of purchasing oil.There's also the difference in the manner of pursuing interests, if European interests are served better by NOT going to war while US interests require it, which alternative is likely going to lead to more suffering? War tends to kill large numbers of people, and if that war is essentially over oil money, I don't see it as worthwhile.
Lets be clear, the inspectors are not there for the first time. We didn't just barely say "hmmm, I think that Iraq might have WMD". We know that he did and knew it the last time we fought him. He signed a cease fire treaty that said that he would get rid of them. So the inspectors finding nothing is more troubling than at least finding something. If they got rid of the stuff, there would be a large paper trail and such. As you said though, they have found nothing.The WMD excuse isn't really working out well since there has so far been no evidence found of any. Not that Saddam really shouldn't go, he should, but the cure shouldn't be worse than the disease. If he's removed by force, I don't want to see another Afghanistan type solution where the pieces were just left lying around instead of picked up and rebuilt.
True. Didn't think about that when I posted.However before the recent "crisis" with Iraq, the European countries were putting preasure on the US to ease sanctions on Iraq and in some cases have just gone ahead and shipped goods over there anyway.
The rest of Europe, yes. Finland always had to stand on its own after the war, and there was quite a spate of articles just recently how we were considered to be rather worthless to the US while the same administrations devoted considerable effort to clandestinely guaranteeing Sweden's safety despite its politically neutral status. Hell, in the last war Finland fought, it was on the opposite side from the US, and we didn't get a nickel of US aid for reconstruction or any military aid later. I at least can make that argument with a relatively clean slate behind me, though what you say probably has a lot of merit with regard to the rest.I suspect it has more to do with the fact that the US has funded and participated in the defence of not only America but has commited cosiderable resources to defend Europe for 50 years. You are used to letting us take the lead in such matters. Used to letting us take the heat for such matters.
I'm not disagreeing there. If you get the go ahead from the UN, fine, then it will happen, but without it the situation internationally will become rather dicey, basically anybody who wanted and thought they could get away with it would be able to attack anybody with impunity.Personaly I wish that Europe would keep its nose out of this one. I don't think that the current administration wants the international comunity to chime in on this one but was forced to by political forces both nationaly and internationaly.
Yes, this is true, but somehow it rings a little hollow when the US is still in the business of supporting other dictatorial and/or corrupt/repressive regimes elsewhere, or ignoring regimes similar to or worse than Iraq (e.g. NK). Realpolitik, true, but it still leaves a bad taste in the mouth.The opposite of war is not always peace. Repression and oppression can kill just as many as war can. Any while oil can not be discounted as a factor in the current crisis in Iraq, I don't see it as such a big thing as others would portray it. There would be easier and cheaper ways of purchasing oil.
No, they aren't, but it was the US failure to actually remove Saddam from power or at least clap him with an iron-clad treaty after the Gulf War that led to this mess in the first place, as well as meddling with the previous UN arms inspectors in a way that violated the treaty. I agree that Saddam probably has stuff stashed away, but the problem is that he has had a long time to perfect hiding methods and in the absence of evidence it'll be difficult to get international support for an invasion, especially if we're the ones who have to foot the bill for rebuilding Iraq.Lets be clear, the inspectors are not there for the first time. We didn't just barely say "hmmm, I think that Iraq might have WMD". We know that he did and knew it the last time we fought him. He signed a cease fire treaty that said that he would get rid of them. So the inspectors finding nothing is more troubling than at least finding something. If they got rid of the stuff, there would be a large paper trail and such. As you said though, they have found nothing.
So far the evidence for violations has not been altogether convincing in all respects, otherwise you wouldn't have as much wrangling over it as you do. And the current administration would no doubt be happy to do without quite a few political measures in the international scene. They've already shown a definite tendency for it.The US dosen't really need the UN inspectors there to show that Iraq has violated the cease fire treaty. The inspectors are there, once again, as a politcal measure that the current US administration would probably rather not go through.
I'm talking about the 2001 campaign, after it left the main news, the place has been quietly ignored for the most part. Here, too, so I'm not pointing the finger solely at the US. Iraq, however, is likely to eclipse it for a long while, and likely get more funds for rebuilding too if war happens.As for Afganistan, if your referring to the recent adventure over there, we have been there for about a year. Give it some time, and for all I know it will be a failure but at least give it enough time. If your refering to the 80's, we were not there to fight for the Afgan's, we were there to provide them with the equipment and instruction of said equipment so the Afgan's could fight against a modern army that was attacking them. We were not there to fight for them.
NK is a non issue. They are starving to death in the dark. The dictator asshat over there knows his time is near and is doing anything and everything possible to grasp onto power for as long as he can. By ignoring them and not giving into their attempted blackmail, we are doing far worse to them than by getting into "he said, she said" diplomacy. IMHO.Yes, this is true, but somehow it rings a little hollow when the US is still in the business of supporting other dictatorial and/or corrupt/repressive regimes elsewhere, or ignoring regimes similar to or worse than Iraq (e.g. NK). Realpolitik, true, but it still leaves a bad taste in the mouth.
We didn't press the war because our allies and the political opposition of the then administration didn't want too. We could have, should have, and would have if not for our allies who didn't want us too. We know that he had WMD but we don't know how he got rid of them so it looks like he still has them. That may not be enough for the UN member of blahblahastan but since we are not asking blahblahastan to fight Iraq, who cares what they think.No, they aren't, but it was the US failure to actually remove Saddam from power or at least clap him with an iron-clad treaty after the Gulf War that led to this mess in the first place, as well as meddling with the previous UN arms inspectors in a way that violated the treaty. I agree that Saddam probably has stuff stashed away, but the problem is that he has had a long time to perfect hiding methods and in the absence of evidence it'll be difficult to get international support for an invasion, especially if we're the ones who have to foot the bill for rebuilding Iraq.
Just cause its not in the "news" dosen't mean we're still not doing some work over there. I will agree that it seems that we are coddleing the warlords too much. We let them keep their opium and shit, and we should have not done that. But it still seems that we are hunting down and taking stashes and groups of militants.I'm talking about the 2001 campaign, after it left the main news, the place has been quietly ignored for the most part. Here, too, so I'm not pointing the finger solely at the US. Iraq, however, is likely to eclipse it for a long while, and likely get more funds for rebuilding too if war happens.
Edi wrote:I basically agree about NK. The not pressing the Gulf War to the finish seems a little strange given how the US hasn't been shy about ignoring international protests afterward, but such is international politics, it seems. I also didn't mean that you had left Afghanistan completely to the dogs, but it has certainly become a lower priority now with everything else going on.
Edi
There's a construction boom going on in the capital, which is seeing prosperity replete with traffic jams and rebuilding into a full metropolis for the first time since the Soviet invasion.Edi wrote: I'm talking about the 2001 campaign, after it left the main news, the place has been quietly ignored for the most part. Here, too, so I'm not pointing the finger solely at the US. Iraq, however, is likely to eclipse it for a long while, and likely get more funds for rebuilding too if war happens.
Edi
Wow, they are rebuilding the infrastructure necessary for distributing the aide in Kabul.Impressive.Because that is exactly what was said in the article that yourself were waving around as a "proof" that the USA is making a lot of efforts to rebuild Afghanistan.You conveniently omit that a lot of that "boom" is driven by the hated NGOs and international agencies.The Duchess of Zeon wrote: There's a construction boom going on in the capital, which is seeing prosperity replete with traffic jams and rebuilding into a full metropolis for the first time since the Soviet invasion.
And how many of them? How many projects? Let me guess,can they be counted on two hands? Or maybe one is enough?The Duchess of Zeon wrote: Likewise, U.S. Army Engineering personnel and other government personnel are being used in hands-
For very good reasons.They have a minimal impact on the country.Outside Kabul little more than zero.The Duchess of Zeon wrote: Neither one was heavily publicized
After you in a stroke of genius airdropped helps on the people,killing few,it is not a surprise that they are sceptic about american helps.The Duchess of Zeon wrote: those wonderful NGO aide groups were complaining because were helping the people.
EDITThe Duchess of Zeon wrote: Afghanistan is going to end up turning into one of our great success stories.
I was agreeing with you. I was then asking why a constructive approach is necessary; that is to say, is constructiveness really necessary in the political realm?Edi wrote: In case you didn't notice, there was a liberal dose of sarcasm included in that, the exact point being that such an approach is generally NOT constructive.
You make the rather massive assumption in such an approach that:As for your contention that it is impossible to have a consistently constructive approach to politics and interactions with other people, I happen to disagree. You can have that by starting with an approach that looks for possibilities of mutual gain instead of singlesided gain and then comparing what the possible effects on innocent third parties are, and if the effects are excessively negative, then that would probably negate the gains to be had from any such deal (i.e. supporting tinpot dictators like the US supported Saddam in the 80s isn't acceptable). All you need is some modicum of morality and principles tempered with an appreciation of realism to manage it. That obviously disqualifies you, since you have the latter but lack the former almost completely.
Agreed. You should only do so when doing so would provide you with gain. (And acting preemptively would not necessarily mean armed conflict; though it could.)Of course you will sometimes be driven to conflict with other people's interests, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should act preemptively against their interests in pursuit of your own.
Simply because the possibility of misjudgement exists does not mean you should always end the strategic calculus at negotiation. Removing an entire section of the calculus is vastly more hobbling than any error; and the levels of misjudgement which lead to famous defeats are usually caused by levels of stupidity that pursuit of a lesser course would not have helped them.The consequences of that in a case of misjudging the situation are usually worse than what would otherwise have happened,
Which is how the political realm operates.You consistently approach everything as a zero-sum game where you seek to maximize your own gain at the expense of others
Assuming, of course, that the others didn't grab for it, and succeed in it while you were lacking.when settling for a little less and allowing the others to have something as well would in the long run lead to more gain all around.
If you beleive that Marina you must not like my country very much. In fact if ol 'Seer Stuart' is to beleived then NZ must be next on the hit list as we dont agree with the concept of a US unilateral, or US led, war war with Iraq.The Duchess of Zeon wrote:http://pub82.ezboard.com/fhistorypoliti ... 1024.topic - By Stuart Slade.
Something to be duly considered.
No, just that you'll end up losing out because of the stance you take. Not necessarily in a military fashion: It could be political, economic, or something of that nature as well.Stuart Mackey wrote: If you beleive that Marina you must not like my country very much. In fact if ol 'Seer Stuart' is to beleived then NZ must be next on the hit list as we dont agree with the concept of a US unilateral, or US led, war war with Iraq.
lol, well I have yet to see any evidence that things will actualy change for us.The Duchess of Zeon wrote:No, just that you'll end up losing out because of the stance you take. Not necessarily in a military fashion: It could be political, economic, or something of that nature as well.Stuart Mackey wrote: If you beleive that Marina you must not like my country very much. In fact if ol 'Seer Stuart' is to beleived then NZ must be next on the hit list as we dont agree with the concept of a US unilateral, or US led, war war with Iraq.
And, honestly, I think New Zealand has great scenery, generally friendly and sometimes quite courageous and adventureous people, but loony politicians and a nutty native relations policy, which is only exceeded by an mega-insane to the max military policy.
Lol, I often wonder if the US realises how much trouble they actually cause for themselfs? it took the Brits how many years to work it out?Admiral Piett wrote:snip:And the 9/11 then is not something that the rest of the world should condemn but rather it is a part of the game.And I would not raise an eyebrow the next time it happens.
I said that it's best to start by looking for possibilities of mutual gain, obviously if these do not exist, the situation is altered, and then it moves more toward the model you espouse. Of course these conditions do not exist for everyone all at once, but that doesn't mean that such possibilities shouldn't be maximized to the greatest feasible extent.You make the rather massive assumption in such an approach that:
1. Mutual gain is in fact possible (In many disputes or disagreements it simply is not; the object of contention cannot be possessed or divied in such a fashion.)
2. The effects on third parties can be calculated reliably.
3. The party you're negotiating with agrees with the concept of mutual gain, which is utterly required for it to work.
4. The third parties agree with the concept of mutual gain.
5. Would excessively negative effects on third parties actually negate the gain? This must be rationally calculated in each individual case.
What I'm saying is that the conditions to meet those assumptions do not exist, and will not exist, at least for humanity as a whole, or in our terms, in the interactions between Nation-States. They could only exist under a one world government, which could never be formed precisely because those conditions cannot be met in the geopolitical realm (Well, it could be, but not in a peacable fashion)
Short or long term? Because often the actions that will result in the greater long term gain will be exactly the opposite of those which allow short term gains.Agreed. You should only do so when doing so would provide you with gain. (And acting preemptively would not necessarily mean armed conflict; though it could.
I'm not advocating always stopping it at that point, but far too often those decisions are made on the basis of what the people in charge wish would happen and what they want to hear, instead of what they need to hear. In other words, any undesirable info is discarded at the outset because it is not politically convenient to acknowledge. Then when you're in over your head, withdraw and do your best to fudge the public perception of what led into the mess in the first place. That pretty much defines the sort of stupidity you're talking about in my opinion, the results of such stupidity may vary in their seriousness, depending on how well the other side can take advantage of it.Simply because the possibility of misjudgement exists does not mean you should always end the strategic calculus at negotiation. Removing an entire section of the calculus is vastly more hobbling than any error; and the levels of misjudgement which lead to famous defeats are usually caused by levels of stupidity that pursuit of a lesser course would not have helped them.
However, it is hardly separate and isolated from the realm of economics, which does not operate in a zero-sum fashion. That's why going for maximal zero-sum approach across the spectrum will not be very well received, nobody likes to get shafted so you can gain some minor short term advantage that won't last.Which is how the political realm operates.
That's why you make provisions against such an occurrence. Point is, when you're in a position of power, you can afford to be magnanimous provided you make viable contingency plans against backstabbing, and that is likely to get you goodwill that will lead to greater long term gain all around, but if the other side tries to doublecross you, you have a response ready for that. If you start off with swinging the stick or threatening to, nobody will be particularly pleased or inclined to accommodate you, not without seriously greater concessions anyway. Simple: Show the carrot first, then show the stick, and make it clear that if its done right, all will gain, but if not, the stick is going to hurt. If you do the reverse, show the stick first (or worse, swing it), the other side will do its utmost to doublecross and backstab you the first chance it gets.Assuming, of course, that the others didn't grab for it, and succeed in it while you were lacking.
The conclusions of #2 tend to hold, the premise does not, because what I'm espousing is something that is in fact being practiced all the time. It's called compromise, and without it there wouldn't be e.g. the European Union. If done correctly, it has great merit, because often maximizing short term gains causes reduction of long term gains.I am not denying that what you are proposing is philosophically the ideal.
However, I am simply saying that:
1. Any attempt to enact your system will result in the destruction of the nation (Though, obviously, only "immediate" in pure theory) doing so by those who have not yet enacted it.
2. Therefore, no nation ever will, as survival always trumps ideology.
You shouldn't be surprised to learn that my opinion on the French government is rather uncomplimentary. The EU is a prime example of the whole situation I'm talking about, but in a smaller scale. Within EU, France has a very prominent position and tries to constantly abuse it, but fortunately the other big countries provide enough of a counterweight that it can't run roughshod over everyone else. Not that the other big ones don't try the same, but they're in the same position. Meanwhile most of the small countries, the Nordic countries prominent among those, are proposing compromises that won't too severely cripple them (agriculture is one of those areas, just look at the map and tell me you can apply the same policy without modification in Finland and Portugal, without accounting for climate). Many of those propositions would hurt everyone slightly in the very short term and result in a lot bigger gains over a longer period, but special interest groups in the big countries ensure that most of those things get axed, because they think exclusively in the short term.Even the European countries often talk like you do but in principle don't enact such policy. The French are a prime example of that.
It's notoriously difficult to get out of life alive, on that we agree, but not on the other things. I agree that the world can be a harsh place, but I don't give in to that. Tragedy can and will happen to everyone, to a greater or lesser extent, but I'm not going to cringe waiting for it.Ah, yes. Well, I think we simply hold different world views. A dismissive statement, but reviewing our disagreements, probably true. I see the cosmos as a fundamentally horrific place, a universe of tragedy waiting to befall everyone - After of which, of course, you die.
Yes, and it's not going to kill me either if I can sometimes give up a little something that doesn't represent all that much value to me but does for someone else. I'm a greedy bastard the same as the next guy, but I'm not that greedy. I won't waste time contemplating the whole of all suffering or anything like that and devising impractical ways to end it all, I don't live in a cloud-cuckoo land after all.In this, the best you can do is fight to make your life, and the lives of those within your power, enjoyable within the circumstances of a horrific and tragic cosmos and impending death.
I won't disagree with any of that. Shit happens.People are going to die, and we'll all be equal as dirt. HIV will sweep through Sub-Saharan Africa and tens of millions will die. A famine in Asia will kill tens of thousands. A civil war somewhere in South America, the same. A pointless soccer riot in Mexico, a hundred. A mob hit will go down in Russia and fifteen bodies will drift past the Kremlin along with chunks of ice, ad infinitum .
Not much disagreement there either. Big problems tend to be an amalgamation of small problems, and they tend to get solved by having practical solutions to the smaller problems, something that was pretty much lost on the foreign aid decision makers e.g. in the 1970s and 1980s. At least here they're learning better now.there's nothing humanity can do to completely stop this. Things like that will always happen. Solutions to some of it will cause other problems to arise, etc.
So don't try to solve - Instead, just to solve individual things. There's no point in trying to "End Hunger", but give to the local mission station that runs a soup kitchen or something of that nature. At the same time, keep in mind that human life is transient, and that your own life ought come first in this when it comes down to the wire. Overriding this are certain impulses; love of family, a sense of pleasure in giving, and a love of country, or sense of pleasure in serving it.
The only thing I disagree with here is the blanket statement about maximizing one's own gain in all circumstances. Sometimes actually conceding something can result in greater gain. I'm not saying a nation should jeopardize the interests of its citizens, but not pursuing those interests to the absolute maximum extent with an utter ruthlessness is not exactly the same thing. If you sometimes refrain from doing so and thereby actually advance other people's interests with little cost to your own, it'll be easier for new interests resulting from the positive consequences of restraint to form and be pursued. This sort of thing is exactly what free trade is supposedly about.And indeed, to speak of nations, this can apply at the higher level. Nations have a duty of seeing that their citizens' interests are served, when it comes down to, and maximized to the greatest possible extent. Both citizens, and nations, are transient, even of the later outlasts its consituent citizens; and the leadership has a duty to maintain their interests foremost.
Certainly, advancing the interests of others is a laudable goal, but it always must come second to the interests of a nation -- Which in this age of the democratic nation-state, are of course the interests of the people.