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Found this online. It appears to be a comparison of the lifetimes of several world civilzations, including China, Egypt, Rome, the Islamic world, and the hypothetical "West." It's drawn from a lot of cyclical theories of history, including those of Oswald Spengler and Toynbee.

Quite haunting, and very compelling. Thank you for posting it.

I'm sure Marina would have something useful to say, she's probably the best educated person here on German philosophy. I'm comparably a novice at best, but it definitely reads compellingly. Don't know if its substantial though.

I hear saying 'we are at approximately this point in the development of these alternate civilisations' and 'we will proceed somewhat according to these events' is big news? Isn't it just a really long-winded way of saying 'civilisations follow this cycle' and 'here is a fanfic I wrote'?

It's interesting in a comparative way (ie, the development of his four selected civilisations compared with date-elasticity, and then to modern events) but it's hardly modern Nostradamus.

I don't know or care about how true to life it is. (Even if it was, I can't see how it can be really applied). But for what it's worth, it's elegant. Kind of like psychohistory.

That's what I thought, also. It's treatment of events from a mood/trend perspective and not a character/decision one certainly makes it more interesting, if looser.

That was the point of Spengler's works, socio-cultural psychohistory. That said, societies do tend to be cyclical, and it would be irrational to conclude that modern western democracy is anymore resilient in the face of changing circumstances than any other form of government was. What prospers now would not have prospered with the technology and needs of ancient Babylon; can we say that the conditions for that prosperity will sustain into the future? Surely not, and therefore, another civilizational development suitable to the conditions of the future will likely occur and displace our own civilization and society.

While I strongly resist the idea that there is anything 'eternal' about modern society (such an attitude is anyway a part of the very cyclical nature of civilisation mood), I'm not sure it's so great to compare 4 ancient civilisations to our modern society. The people and attitudes and trends might be the same, but this is a society beyond imagination until recently. This *is* addressed in the work, though, so it's a minor issue - particularly as you say that our society is if anything more precarious.

So while I find it interesting and instructive, I don't see anything particularly valid about his future fanfiction. Ironically, a part of a civilisation in decline is a feeling of helplessness before collapse in the intellectuals (which he constantly mentions up to 2080), so he's really just a part of his own pattern.

Speaking of fanfiction, he's written two stories set in his "Spengler's Future" hypothetical West world. "Ecumenical Twilight, and "After the Eighth Day."

Also, a Lord of the Rings fanfic.

Incidentally, this might be an interesting model to apply to the extremely static and ancient civilizational apparatus of Star Wars and other similar fictional realms. But that's more than a bit off topic.

There's nothing particularly impessive about citing historical events and making vague connections with contemporary or hypothetical futures. The cyclical nature of history is only true to an extent that makes it essentially irrelevant, in that one might also say all men live the same lives because they begin and end at birth and death respectively.

Moved to OT, since it's really neither news, nor politics.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

TC Pilot wrote:There's nothing particularly impessive about citing historical events and making vague connections with contemporary or hypothetical futures. The cyclical nature of history is only true to an extent that makes it essentially irrelevant, in that one might also say all men live the same lives because they begin and end at birth and death respectively.

Right. Its just poignant narrative, and nothing more. I'm with Karl Popper on historicism.

Battlehymn Republic wrote:Also, a Lord of the Rings fanfic.

That is rather horrible fan fiction. Not only does it break the rules of the world where the fiction happens and the story is downright terrible, it also changes the characters without any actual reason. Also, while I understand why many might dislike Tolkien's slow and even long-winded narrative and text, I'd have hoped for a fan fiction to at least try to have some semblance to it, or at least try to copy The Hobbit's style.

All in all, I do not recommend.