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I'm guessing it'll begin on the next new moon. Give us the advantage, since we have considerably better nightvision/infrared/radar tech than the Iraqis.

probably within 3-6 months of the 2004 elections

My guess is when the new federal budget gets passed.

Between the beggining of summer and late spring.

HemlockGrey wrote:I'm guessing it'll begin on the next new moon. Give us the advantage, since we have considerably better nightvision/infrared/radar tech than the Iraqis.

My guess is that the heavy bombing will start within the next two months, with the ivasion following 15 to 30 days later.

Sometime in March.

What are we betting? Post counts?

I say early April... No reason, just a quess.

When Bush's blood boils over.

Ramadan has to end first and foremost, then another week or two of dealing with the "Give peace one last chance" crowd in Europe...(while they try to secure their oil interests through back channels) then a two to three week bombing campiagn to blow a nice clear path for the spearheads.

Mid to late March at the latest. After that it just gets too hot to fight.

Well, they say when the odds are split, bet the long shot...

I say Saddam actively disarms to thumb his nose at Bush and no war happens in the immediate future.

Well, they say when the odds are split, bet the long shot...

I say Saddam actively disarms to thumb his nose at Bush and no war happens in the immediate future.

Hmm, that would be very smart of him to do that. That also might lose Bush some votes.

I'd say sometime in March. It seems to be inevitable, and if it goes bad, then it doesn't have to be tried again, and Bush cost himself the 2004 election, unless he can do some sort of miracle with the economy or something.

Next Saturday, the 15th. Just as soon as the inspectors haul their asses out of there, perhaps for that report on Valentine's day.

They'll bomb in a month, and they'll keep bombing for a really long time while the talking heads on TV start getting impatient for the ground campaign.

jegs2 wrote:My guess is that the heavy bombing will start within the next two months, with the ivasion following 15 to 30 days later.

Putting the war well into the Middle Eastern summer. This sounds about as smart as when Hitler attacked Russia in the fall...

The war is inevitable.Bush has made a commitment for a regime change in Iraq and it would be politically suicidal backing down, even if Saddam complied with all the requests.Hopefully Saddam and some of his thugs will get a bomb on their head,that is the only positive thing that will come out from all this.Everything else is a useless loads of talks.
If you are looking at the UN ability to make a resolution for the date of the beginning of the war you are looking in the wrong place.Rather you should look at the Sealift Command ability to deliver the heavy equipment in place.Most likely they will not be ready before the end of february.End of march is too late for climatic reasons,so a day towards mid march seems the most likely date.

I'm going with late Feb, maybe early March. Almost all of the pieces will be in place by then.

HemlockGrey wrote:I'm guessing it'll begin on the next new moon. Give us the advantage, since we have considerably better nightvision/infrared/radar tech than the Iraqis.

5 March or later (Emphasis on "Or Later" - It just won't happen sooner than that). Two days of massive concentrated airstrikes and cruise missile barrages followed by the immediate commencement of the ground campaign on the third day.

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:

HemlockGrey wrote:I'm guessing it'll begin on the next new moon. Give us the advantage, since we have considerably better nightvision/infrared/radar tech than the Iraqis.

5 March or later (Emphasis on "Or Later" - It just won't happen sooner than that). Two days of massive concentrated airstrikes and cruise missile barrages followed by the immediate commencement of the ground campaign on the third day.

*raises eyebrow* Only two days of bombardment before the ground war?

Bombardment won't shock the Iraqis into submission. They'll disperse their assets and ride it out, and a lot of Tomahawks, JDAMs, CALCMs (not that there's many of those left, the inventory is practically dry) will get wasted.

Vympel wrote:Bombardment won't shock the Iraqis into submission. They'll disperse their assets and ride it out, and a lot of Tomahawks, JDAMs, CALCMs (not that there's many of those left, the inventory is practically dry) will get wasted.

I'm not expecting them to submit. I'm expecting it to decapacitate the country. The inventory has been entirely rebuild and is being expanded as we speak; the factories are working 24/7 and have been since the Afghan War to rebuild the stockpiles. It's quiet, but we've been rebuilding oru capability for smart-weapons at maximum possible rates, pulling out the stops without much noise about it.

Dispersal isn't going to help them when we've had years to precisely map out and observe their country and all possible (reasonable) dispersal points. Their command and control will be annihilated and their military left headless. They can disperse, and probably successfully, but if they do that they'll be unable to mass their forces to meet the invasion. With their C3 destroyed they'll be hapless trying to organize from such disparate points against the follow up air-attacks which would be co-current to the ground offensive.

If the reliable troops are stationed in and around major cities, then the guided weaponry can still wreak a good execution on them in a very short time with proper planning - and they'll be in fixed defences so that's entirely possible - without incurring civilian collateral damage of a heavy nature. We'll match or exceed the number of smart weapons used in the Afghan conflict.

By moving in so swiftly after the initial bombardment, the Iraqis will not have sufficient time to regroup from it in their positions in the cities, or muster from dispersal points, with their command and communications infrastruction utterly destroyed.

Vympel wrote:Bombardment won't shock the Iraqis into submission. They'll disperse their assets and ride it out, and a lot of Tomahawks, JDAMs, CALCMs (not that there's many of those left, the inventory is practically dry) will get wasted.

Factories have been churning out JDAM kits 24 hours a day since the end of the war in Afghanistan.Production rate should be around 2000-3000 per month.So I guess that there should be enough.Most likely barracks will be the only places where Saddam soldiers will not be when the fireworks will start however.

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
I'm not expecting them to submit. I'm expecting it to decapacitate the country. The inventory has been entirely rebuild and is being expanded as we speak; the factories are working 24/7 and have been since the Afghan War to rebuild the stockpiles. It's quiet, but we've been rebuilding oru capability for smart-weapons at maximum possible rates, pulling out the stops without much noise about it.

That's just JDAMs. I was only talking about CALCM stocks, which are at a critical low level, last I heard.

Dispersal isn't going to help them when we've had years to precisely map out and observe their country and all possible (reasonable) dispersal points. Their command and control will be annihilated and their military left headless. They can disperse, and probably successfully, but if they do that they'll be unable to mass their forces to meet the invasion. With their C3 destroyed they'll be hapless trying to organize from such disparate points against the follow up air-attacks which would be co-current to the ground offensive.

If the reliable troops are stationed in and around major cities, then the guided weaponry can still wreak a good execution on them in a very short time with proper planning - and they'll be in fixed defences so that's entirely possible - without incurring civilian collateral damage of a heavy nature. We'll match or exceed the number of smart weapons used in the Afghan conflict.

By moving in so swiftly after the initial bombardment, the Iraqis will not have sufficient time to regroup from it in their positions in the cities, or muster from dispersal points, with their command and communications infrastruction utterly destroyed.

That all assumes that the Iraqis are just going to passively sit there with big neon signs over there C&C centres that the US knows exists that say "bomb this!" in big neon signs. I expect that any idiot whose looked over bombing campaigns over the last decade would have done their utmost to conceal/defend their C&C assets passivley, not allow them to be smashed. Most likely, empty buildings will be hit hard and often.

i'd say late february. we'll bombard and kill as many civilians as we possibly can (along with a little of their military) for a week (that way tv crews get a decent amount of time to get a bunch of explosion footage) and invade right after that.

at the beginning of March. Perhaps a bit earlier.