WI 1918 German revolution

[hongi]

What would have happened if there had been a communist revolution in Germany in 1918?

[Mr Bean]

What would have happened if there had been a communist revolution in Germany in 1918?

There was a communist revolution in 1918. In fact the first Google result to "1918 German Revolution" turns up the 1918 German Revolution of which the Communist played a part and lost.

I assume you meant a successful Communist revolution rather than a revolution period.

[hongi]

Sorry, yeah that's exactly what I meant. As opposed to an aborted one

[Sea Skimmer]

If this is 1918, so you only have an armistice with the allies, not a peace treaty, and if Germany looked chaotic enough the allies might occupy all of Germany. In fact I think it is all but certain that the allies would do so. Then a communist government would have some really serious problems with trying to do anything at all, including negotiating a peace treaty. It certainly wouldn't be the Peace of Versailles we get out of this. It would be a far harsher treaty, probably involving all the Rhineland being ceded the Belgian and France outright. That would go horribly, but given how close it came in real life it seems like no leap here in fact.

[Esquire]

Could you say a bit more? I thought Versailles as-historical was about as harsh as anybody would tolerate. Or would that be almost exactly the point, a symmetrical punishment imposed by France on Germany for the seizure of Alsace-Lorraine in the 1870s?

[K. A. Pital]

Complete unpredictability will happen. A revolution in a major industrial power would be exactly what Marx awaited; and it is not impossible that other major powers experience similar unrest, or an outright revolution.

[Thanas]

There is no way a communist revolution would succeed at all.

[K. A. Pital]

There is no way a communist revolution would succeed at all.

There is no way in real life; in a different timeline it may have very well suceeded. Fascism succeeded in its place in Austria and Germany with Dollfuss and Hitler, but had it not, I am very sure people would be writing how totally impossible the success of a fascist coup seems.

[Simon_Jester]

Even supposing we use enough alien mind control that the communists are not defeated by the greater numbers and organization of pro-conservative forces, yes. Having such a revolution while the war's still going (which is what I assume you meant) guarantees that the same thing will happen to the Germans that historically happened to the Russians. The troops fighting at the front line will collapse, either because:

1) They're communists and they join the revolution, or
2) They're sick and tired of whatever crap inspired the communists to revolt, and just go home, or
3) They're loyal and nonetheless get pulled off the front by the anti-communist leader(s) who need troops to suppress the revolt.

Since millions of men are still parked on the Western Front and more Americans are arriving every day, this probably results in the Allies massively breaking through- perhaps not without a fight, but still breaking through. British, French, and American troops pour through and are likely welcomed as liberators and friends by the anti-communists, even as they extract very harsh concessions basically consisting of "take everything from Germany we could want." In this situation we are more likely to see the super-punitive peace that (as I remember it) the French favored.

Although as Stas points out, IF we change history enough to make communist revolution likely in Germany at this time, whatever we did to change that might well be in play elsewhere too, and IF that is true all bets are off.

[hongi]

Are the Bolsheviks in any state to render assistance?

[Sea Skimmer]

Are the Bolsheviks in any state to render assistance?

Not even remotely. In 1918 it wasn't even clear they could beat the White Russians and the invasion of Poland in 1920 failed completely. If Germany turned commie the Bolsheviks might takeover Russia quicker through superior moral situation, but the Poles would fight them no matter what because it was about finally getting independence. Plus the country was an economic basket case, no small part of why the revolution occurred in the first place. In fact the real question would be could the Germans aid the Bolsheviks in taking over Russia quicker. I'd say no because of an allied occupation, but the point being even fractional German strength is far greater then all of Russia, let alone Bolshevik space only.

The western armies of 1918 were enormously more heavily armed and equipped then Russian forces, even were planes and tanks negated completely.

[Elheru Aran]

Russia, after the 1917 Revolution, was a pretty sad mess for several years. The Communists didn't exert complete control over the country for a while, till the late 20s IIRC? due to resistance from White Russians and possibly some other factions-- can't remember exactly. Didn't help that the Western powers were throwing aid around to the White Russians and anybody who said they wanted to kick some Communist arse.

Frankly the only result of a successful Communist revolution in 1918 would've been a crushed and partitioned Germany.

[K. A. Pital]

The civil war in the West ran the way it did also due to German invasion and its war support for Krasnov. Had a communist revolution happened, Germany and Russia would have quickly found a way to take over whatever is inbetween - and take out whoever is inbetween. The Polish nationalists would fail if Pilsudsky would be never released and Germany and Russia would just separate the place. Poland was busy fighting Galicia until 1919 - that IRL, where Poland was actually created by the Versailles.

What "allied occupation" are you talking about? Even IRL transferring the lands occupied by the Central Powers to the Entente happened rarely, German commanders preferred to hand them over to Russian troops. In a reality where both Germany and Russia are communist, that would be the only way things go.

The Bolsheviks in Russia took power in the face of odds that most thought were impossible: losing huge land to the Germans in mid-1918, later having foreign intervents from the Entente and finally even Japan try landgrabs and propping up local warlords. And they still won. With no other industrial power being communist, with them being complete pariahs.

How do you think it could be worse with Germany also being communist? It literally is the best that could have happened - the Bolsheviks would see a vindication of the world revolution they were so eager to see, and they would have given twice the fight. Not to mention that a lot of the White armies were dependent on foreign arms supply. With the Germans blocking the flow of Entente arms in Europe, White armies would die a swift and painful death.

[Simon_Jester]

I think his point is that the Bolsheviks were not in a good position to offer much help to German communists in 1918. While maybe the German communists could help the Bolsheviks... except that they'd have a lot of hard fighting on their hands, because multiple large armies were already deployed in the field against them. Meanwhile, the centers of old conservative power in Germany were by no means destroyed in 1918, and still commanded the loyalty of much of the population.

Even if we posit enough support for the communists to give them a good chance of victory, it won't be short or easy, and they'll have to deal with hostile armies on their western frontier that were already committed to invading them anyway.

Imagine the Russian Civil War if the Central Powers just kept going, moving their troops eastward over and over and taking advantage of the chaos to push through and try to suppress the Reds by force. It wouldn't be a pretty picture for the Bolsheviks, would it?

In real life this could not happen because the Central Powers were themselves close to collapse in late 1917 and were only too happy to sign a peace treaty securing their eastern frontier while the Bolsheviks and the Whites fought over Russia itself. But something similar would happen to Germany if they had a revolution in 1918.

[K. A. Pital]

The communists are in no good position to offer help in the West - except maybe some manpower that could slip through the chaos of Eastern Europe. But they are in a good position to offer help in the East, where communists would gradually solidify control over the territories between Germany and Central Russia. In reality pushing through the vast expanses of agrarian Russia and pushing through urban, heavily fortified Germany are two different things. Sure enough, what remains of the Entente will probably push into Germany, or try to. They would be probably scared of the communists, but the "whites" in Germany, unlike the Russian whites, would not be their natural allies. In fact, it could be that the Entente would find it easier to make peace with the communists (peace without annexations and contributions) than with "conservative elements" in Germany.

The idea that the Entente would keep pushing like crazy without regards for losses is not a realistic one either. Why? The country they were fighting had a revolution. The new power thinks that the royalty were criminals for starting a massive imperialist war.

[Purple]

Even if the Germans can't even lend a single bullet just the fact of them still being around past and fighting 1918 helps the Russian communists. Every soldier, bullet, liter of fuel or what have you spent on fighting them is one not spent on supporting the whites in Russia.

[Elheru Aran]

It really depends on how much the Western powers are afraid of Communism... and they were pretty paranoid about it (with some justification, there was a history of fairly prominent assassinations, riots, and such by Anarchist/Socialist/Communist groups up to and after that point). Certainly France and Britain are fairly war-weary by 1918, but with the American reinforcements helping them out they might consider a Communist takeover in Germany enough incentive to prolong the war. If the Russian Bolsheviks are able to assist the German Communists and vice versa, that would be the real game-changer there.

[hongi]

Imagine the Russian Civil War if the Central Powers just kept going, moving their troops eastward over and over and taking advantage of the chaos to push through and try to suppress the Reds by force. It wouldn't be a pretty picture for the Bolsheviks, would it?

If I recall correctly, that's exactly what some of the Bolsheviks were advocating. To keep on going with the war, get rolled over yes, but get into a protracted fight/insurgency.

[Simon_Jester]

The communists are in no good position to offer help in the West - except maybe some manpower that could slip through the chaos of Eastern Europe. But they are in a good position to offer help in the East, where communists would gradually solidify control over the territories between Germany and Central Russia. In reality pushing through the vast expanses of agrarian Russia and pushing through urban, heavily fortified Germany are two different things. Sure enough, what remains of the Entente will probably push into Germany, or try to. They would be probably scared of the communists, but the "whites" in Germany, unlike the Russian whites, would not be their natural allies. In fact, it could be that the Entente would find it easier to make peace with the communists (peace without annexations and contributions) than with "conservative elements" in Germany.

The idea that the Entente would keep pushing like crazy without regards for losses is not a realistic one either. Why? The country they were fighting had a revolution. The new power thinks that the royalty were criminals for starting a massive imperialist war.

There were a LOT of people in powerful positions in Britain and France who would have cheerfully allied with the Freikorps to suppress the communists, and secured peace that way, rather than allying with the communists to suppress the Freikorps. I strongly suspect the Freikorps would have accepted the help.

[Pelranius]

It really depends on how much the Western powers are afraid of Communism... and they were pretty paranoid about it (with some justification, there was a history of fairly prominent assassinations, riots, and such by Anarchist/Socialist/Communist groups up to and after that point). Certainly France and Britain are fairly war-weary by 1918, but with the American reinforcements helping them out they might consider a Communist takeover in Germany enough incentive to prolong the war. If the Russian Bolsheviks are able to assist the German Communists and vice versa, that would be the real game-changer there.

But if the American reinforcements did the brunt of the fighting against German Communists, things would probably go downhill for Allied unity if Washington thinks it's carrying most of the burden.

[Simon_Jester]

The French and British still had large armies; it's just that they'd pretty much exhausted their ability to replace casualties. Against a revolutionary movement in Germany that is opposed by a large and armed faction of the German people, they don't need to take nearly as many casualties as they would fighting entrenched German field armies. So that's less of a problem.

[Thanas]

But for the communist revolution to exist it is necessary to brainwash over 70% of the German populace anyway, so where is that large and armed fraction? OP only works if you replace those people with communist drones.

[K. A. Pital]

Why are you describing people as "communist drones", Thanas? I am not sure 70% of Russia's population were communists, but many were, and that was enough. Not to mention that people of the communist countries that underwent their own revolutions - like Cuba, Russia, China - are not "drones".

Drones is what US hypocrites use to kill Arabs. Humans are humans.

[Simon_Jester]

To give a communist revolution a credible chance of success you would need to alter the opinion of much if not all of the non-Communist German population. As it was, the numbers were so heavily stacked against them that the Communists would not have a realistic chance of success.

[K. A. Pital]

To give a communist revolution a credible chance of success you would need to alter the opinion of much if not all of the non-Communist German population. As it was, the numbers were so heavily stacked against them that the Communists would not have a realistic chance of success.

It does not mean you have to replace people with drones. Communists did not really command the opinion of every citizen in the Russian Empire too. It was a swarm of circumstances and smart strategies that brought them up. Could such circumstances appear in Germany? Who knows. The casualties could have been more severe; the economy in a worse shape than in real life. Some labor-pacifying laws in effect, plus something that could serve as a focal point for anti-government action (like the deaths of people during the coronation of Nicky). I do not see a change in circumstances as replacement of the people with some other people.