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John Michael Greer believes that modern society will collapse due to oil depletion over several centuries into a new dark age, complete with mass migrations and feudalism. What makes him more interesting than say, James Howard Kunstler, is his embrace of Oswald Spengler, his obsession with "ecotechnic" technologies such as amateur radio, and Augustin Mouchot's solar-powered printing press. His peak oil website is here. And by the way, he has a website devoted to his belief in 16th-century Hermeticism. Overall, I'd say he's an interesting character due to his bizarre mixture of beliefs. What do you think?

Newer heard of the guy before but the man sounds nuttier than a squirrel on crystal meth. Well that or he plays too much fallout.

Seems to me that that is predicated on the assumption that we will still be oil-dependent for several centuries, which strikes me as a terrible lack of imagination and foresight- some people just don't seem to be able to imagine the world ever moving beyond where it is today.

This guy has been around a long time and always been a raving moron. But that can sell cheep paperbacks which is what he does.

The Romulan Republic wrote:Seems to me that that is predicated on the assumption that we will still be oil-dependent for several centuries, which strikes me as a terrible lack of imagination and foresight- some people just don't seem to be able to imagine the world ever moving beyond where it is today.

Indeed. The history of commodity markets is that the solution to high commodity prices is high commodity prices as a mix of alternative sources and substitutes are developed. While the solutions aren't always great for the environment, resource shortages themselves aren't something to be too concerned about.

Sea Skimmer wrote:This guy has been around a long time and always been a raving moron. But that can sell cheep paperbacks which is what he does.

I picked up Twilight's Last Gleaming for $0.50 at the Golden Rule here in town a couple months back. My brain ached, and my eyes bled from all the simple-minded, strawman stupid.

Fifty cents I'll never get back.

Let's focus on why Greer and people like him believe and behave the way they do. The book "Peak Oil: Apocalyptic Environmentalism and Libertarian Politics" explains that the pessimism of the peak oil movement stems from its emphasis on personal action. With a lack of community, it doesn't have leaders who can enter politics, making it politically powerless. Seeing, or rather not caring about its lack of power, peak oilists get depressed, emphasize personal action, and the cycle starts over again. I wouldn't be surprised if the movement died out due its own pessimism. Besides the pessimism, the peak oil movement has some similarities to fundamentalism which cause people to reject it:
1. Wholesale embrace of leaders, regardless of eccentricities
On Greer's forum, individuals "predict" exactly as Greer does. Any viewpoint even to the slightest hopewards or gloomwards will recieve a berating from him. As a result, the remaining fanatics refer to him as "our esteemed moderator".
2. Smallness of community
The smallness of various online communities makes them give off cult-like vibes, especially when all links on site go to other members' sites.
3. Faith in the Inevitable Victory
As much as this may help a community survive, it also comes off as hypocrisy and sheer laziness, but also looks like hideousness when the "victory" which proves peak-oilers' views right includes social and technological regression to the 19th century and billions of deaths.
4. Dichotomy
As noted above, peak oilers have no tolerance for other peak oil views which differ even slightly from their own. Thus, they create a good/evil dichotomy which make others consider them to be narrow-minded.

Yup, peak oil and similar conspiracy theories have simply replaced organized religion for large numbers of people; a very interesting counterbalance to the supposed coming 'doom' of traditional religion in the west. End result we get most of the negative effects of narrow minded stupidity but none of the charity organizing.

Indeed. There's probably several PhD dissertations on why precisely people can't quite seem to cope with the idea that we'll probably just muddle along for the foreseeable future, exactly as we've been doing for the past 20,000 years.

Part of the problem is fuzziness about what "peak oil-ism" means.

If "peak oil-ism" means believing that oil is going to become steadily more expensive until it is uneconomical to use, first for 'cheap' purposes and later for expensive ones... well, frankly, that is a matter of basic common sense. The amount of oil in the ground is a limited, countable amount. If we keep using it sooner or later there won't be much left. And what is left will be hard to find and hard to extract, because we'll use the easily found, easily available oil first.

If "peak oil-ism" means believing that one day we will wake up and ALL THE OIL IS GONE OH MY GOD, resulting in massive emergencies and panics... well, that's the plot of a bad movie. Obviously silly, though no sillier than any number of other things people believe.

It's the first, overlaid with strong anti-political and anti-modern-consumerist viewpoints.

And, it sounds like, anti-technological. Because to go from "some time between now and 2100 we will have to stop using oil for routine things" to "therefore, civilization will decline into a Dark Age" is a big leap.

Given how Greer had joined the anti-television club in high school, that does make sense.

What psychological complexes resulted in Greer's firm belief in the apocalypse. From analyzing his blog, I can detect a firm desire for the apocalypse due to the return to "the good old ways" but nothing more? He appears to only look for "peak oil" and "current politics" articles on the internet, so he seems to have a monomaniac obsession with "the collapse of civilization". He does have Aspergers and the obsessiveness which comes with it may influence him, but the underlying detachment/hope towards the apocalypse baffles me? Any psychologists on board?

I would suggest this isn't all that unusual at all, its nothing but an extension of a fear of getting old and dying. Bringing back the old times is an attachment to youth. Its just stronger in some then others, and present in human culture back to the Greeks with golden age, and no doubt much longer then that before. Trying to diagnose specifics over the internet is pretty futile.

thandeanderson wrote:What psychological complexes resulted in Greer's firm belief in the apocalypse. From analyzing his blog, I can detect a firm desire for the apocalypse due to the return to "the good old ways" but nothing more? He appears to only look for "peak oil" and "current politics" articles on the internet, so he seems to have a monomaniac obsession with "the collapse of civilization". He does have Aspergers and the obsessiveness which comes with it may influence him, but the underlying detachment/hope towards the apocalypse baffles me? Any psychologists on board?

I studied psych in college, and I've got nothing here. Speaking as an aspie, Eagle Scout, and all-around misfit, though, I've always kind of personally thought that a good, solid apocalypse would suck but also be my time to shine. I'll be the one in the hockey mask leading the army demanding your guzzuline.

I like Greer, but that's because I like anyone with the balls to write a book about using ritual sorcery to soothe the pains of the end of the Age of Oil. I think his predictions are too bleak, but the notion that we're coming towards a time - a transitory one, IMO - of relative energy scarcity compared to the extreme plenty we've enjoyed of late isn't totally nuts.

Of course, he thinks he's a wizard and so do I, so we're probably on the same wavelength of nuttier than squirrel shit.