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Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 01:30pm
by SolarpunkFan
Think about it: there's a substantial chance that Trump could win the White House. Not a majority chance, but still substantial. And if the Republicans keep control of the House and gain the Senate, there's nothing stopping Trump from stacking the Supreme Court with loony wingnuts (assuming he gets to replace two). So the federal government is tightly under conservative control.
Problem is, I think Trump would be more than happy to put boots on the ground against both ISIS and Iran (because Republicans think that all Muslims are the same). And with China trying to do some trading with Iran, I wouldn't be surprised if they retaliated too. And if that happened then everything is up in the air as far as conflict goes.
I hate this election year, so so much.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 02:09pm
by Elheru Aran
*sigh*
Substantial doesn't mean dick. Majority does. He's not going to become President.
Even if he does. I suspect this election is going to draw more voters in general out to vote simply because it's so high profile. So even if he wins, by the *extremely* long shot that is, odds are good that more Democrats will get elected than Republicans, simply because the potential voting pool for Democrats is greater than for Republicans. And even with the Republicans, they don't like Trump any better than the Democrats do... at least the intelligent ones don't, and while a lot of crazy stuff gets said, by and large most Republicans are smart enough to not shoot themselves in the foot even if they do generally toe the party line.
So the odds are pretty decent, that even if Trumpkins wins, Congress would sit tight on him. Oh certainly the radical Republicans would talk a big talk about how we have a "strong" President now, but there would be enough unhappy Republicans to ally with the Democrats in order to keep him under control. Ironically, it might cause the most unity we've seen in Congress in awhile.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 02:11pm
by Borgholio
Ironically, it might cause the most unity we've seen in Congress in awhile.
This is my belief. Although we bitch and moan about how obstructionist Congress has been over the last 8 years, it would actually turn around and work in our favor if Trump were elected.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 02:15pm
by Elheru Aran
Borgholio wrote:Ironically, it might cause the most unity we've seen in Congress in awhile.
This is my belief. Although we bitch and moan about how obstructionist Congress has been over the last 8 years, it would actually turn around and work in our favor if Trump were elected.
Yeah. Trump being President still wouldn't be a good thing, mind you. If the Republican leadership can talk him into toeing the party line-- there's always the "remember what happened to Nixon?" card-- he could wreak quite a bit of havoc.
Frankly, I'm starting to get a feeling he's simply not in it to win it. He's in it to make a redonkulous amount of money somehow.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 06:01pm
by The Romulan Republic
It certainly could. Not necessarily because Trump just decides "I'm going to start World War III" but because he's an arrogant buffoon who will lack the tact and intelligence to handle foreign policy. Either it'll be lower level people running things behind the scenes (which could lead to confusion and infighting in how the government responds to international crises, along with everything else), or it'll be Trump surrounded by yes-men trying to handle global affairs.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 06:05pm
by Elheru Aran
The Romulan Republic wrote:It certainly could. Not necessarily because Trump just decides "I'm going to start World War III" but because he's an arrogant buffoon who will lack the tact and intelligence to handle foreign policy. Either it'll be lower level people running things behind the scenes (which could lead to confusion and infighting in how the government responds to international crises, along with everything else), or it'll be Trump surrounded by yes-men trying to handle global affairs.
The thing is, though: Trump is so massively unliked by his party (a highly vocal crowd of supporters notwithstanding, that even in the highly unlikely event of him being elected, it's quite possible that the Republican leadership in Congress will have a sit-down with him and say something along the lines of "OK, you won this one, but from now on, you don't say anything stupid, you don't do anything stupid, or we kick you in the teeth."
Certainly he could cause massive havoc if he really wanted to... but I don't think he would be able to *get away* with much.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 06:11pm
by The Romulan Republic
I have exactly zero faith in the Republican leadership and Congress to reign him in. Too many of them have gotten behind him, at least grudgingly, in the name of party loyalty. Too often have they tolerated, pandered to, and joined ranks with the far Right, bigoted, violent fringe for political gain, or out of fear of being primaried. And if Trump wins, his win will strengthen and embolden the white supremacist fringe, and he will likely be joined by more and more who think like him in our government.
No, I do not trust them to control him.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 06:12pm
by Grumman
Trump? How about Clinton, the one who already voted for one illegal clusterfuck?
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 06:30pm
by The Romulan Republic
Clinton is unethical, but she is neither inexperienced, nor generally incompetent, nor insane, nor an extremist. She will not willingly do something that will destroy civilization, and is less likely to do so by accident.
Willingness to fight an illegal war is hardly an admirable quality, but it does not equate to likelihood of starting WWIII.
I do have some concerns about her no-fly zone in Syria policy, as that could lead to WWIII if enforced against Russia's wishes, but for the reasons I explain above, I suspect its mostly empty posturing, unless she can work out an agreement with Russia on the matter.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 06:32pm
by The Romulan Republic
The truth is, though, that any President has the potential to destroy civilization, weather deliberately (if, God forbid, we ever elect a mad man/fanatic) or through error. This is why the votes you do or do not cast for President may be the most important decisions you ever make in your life.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 07:08pm
by Sea Skimmer
The guy is an isolationist who likes Putin, do you people not hear him screaming about it? If anything he will be far less likely then typical US presidents to cause WW3.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 07:22pm
by Gandalf
Sea Skimmer wrote:The guy is an isolationist who likes Putin, do you people not hear him screaming about it? If anything he will be far less likely then typical US presidents to cause WW3.
This. If Bush II couldn't start WW3 despite running around basically daring people to stop him and his crusade, Trump is unlikely to cause WW3.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 07:34pm
by The Romulan Republic
Sea Skimmer wrote:The guy is an isolationist who likes Putin, do you people not hear him screaming about it? If anything he will be far less likely then typical US presidents to cause WW3.
A sudden, ill-planned withdrawal of the US from global affairs could destabilize things just as much as a rash intervention.
In any case, Trump constantly contradicts himself, so I wouldn't give much weight to anything he says.
Also, Putin has been highly aggressive militarily in recent years.
Gandalf wrote:Post by Gandalf » 2016-07-19 07:22pm
Bush was an amateur in the field of incompetent lunatic foreign policy.
Trump is a master.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 07:45pm
by Gandalf
The Romulan Republic wrote:Gandalf wrote:Post by Gandalf » 2016-07-19 07:22pm
Bush was an amateur in the field of incompetent lunatic foreign policy.
Trump is a master.
Upon what are you basing this conclusion?
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 07:48pm
by The Romulan Republic
Upon all the things I remember watching W. say, and all the things I've seen from Trump.
The lunacy is on a completely different level.
As is the lack of political experience. At least W. had been a governor.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-19 07:55pm
by Sea Skimmer
The Romulan Republic wrote:[
A sudden, ill-planned withdrawal of the US from global affairs could destabilize things just as much as a rash intervention.
Even if I agreed with that, which I don't, as a 'rash intervention' could involve the US invading China, while US troops around the world cannot be less then 0, its so speculative as to be completely useless for any point of rational debate. Its on par with 'Trump falls on the big red button' level of value. Oh sure US isolationism might cause some conventional wars, that much is possible, but even those would by nature be dwarfed by the scale of fighting we used to expect in NORTHAG alone. They would be what the US military calls major regional conflicts. Not fucking thousands of nukes fly and wipe out a billion people in 45 minutes.
Frankly I see just about zero ways WW3 will happen if it didn't in the cold war. Pakistan and India might nuke each other but that isn't the same thing, or at all likely to be a product of US policy. Start naming specific things or admit your going off pure Trump hate, because as far as I see it this is just a case of mirror imaging people own ignorant stupid irrational fears and hates of Trump back onto him. Plenty of reasons exist to dislike Trump, we can do without the stupid hysterics, they only strength him. And long have been for that matter.
In any case, Trump constantly contradicts himself, so I wouldn't give much weight to anything he says.
Actually he's been pretty damn consistent on this trend.
Also, Putin has been highly aggressive militarily in recent years.
Within what, 500 miles of his own capital? Or in the war against the moderate head choppers on the land of his traditional ally, the ones who just cut the head off a 12 year old on camera while laughing and smiling? And umm, actually nothing else comes to mind either. In fact events since 2014 only reinforce how unlikely WW3 is under any plausible near future circumstances. Putin is fighting over the fringes of the former Soviet Empire, places NEVER EVEN IN CONTENTION in the Cold War so strongly were they in Soviet hands. And even
then its only parts of those countries and only with the strength of about 1 army corps in the Ukraine, and 1 air brigade and 1 artillery battery (they have exactly one ground fighting) in Syria. OH MY GOD WE NEED DAVY CROCKET NOW!
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 03:24am
by Ralin
Elheru Aran wrote:
The thing is, though: Trump is so massively unliked by his party (a highly vocal crowd of supporters notwithstanding, that even in the highly unlikely event of him being elected, it's quite possible that the Republican leadership in Congress will have a sit-down with him and say something along the lines of "OK, you won this one, but from now on, you don't say anything stupid, you don't do anything stupid, or we kick you in the teeth."
And it's also quite possible that Trump would tell them to shut up or he'll go on TV and announce that a bunch of old guard traitor Republicans threatened to have him impeached if he didn't tow their line, but that he's going to put them into their place and that his supporters need to bombard their offices with complaints, vote for their opponents in the next election and possibly riot in the streets. Which he won't be arrested for. Because in this scenario he will be the president.
Leaving aside the basically stupid idea that he might set off World War III. Trump's not picking a fight with anyone strong enough to make that happen.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 06:16am
by Simon_Jester
SolarpunkFan wrote:Problem is, I think Trump would be more than happy to put boots on the ground against both ISIS and Iran (because Republicans think that all Muslims are the same). And with China trying to do some trading with Iran, I wouldn't be surprised if they retaliated too. And if that happened then everything is up in the air as far as conflict goes.
Why would the Chinese fight a war with the US over Iran, exactly? They have a lot of other trading partners. Heck,
we are a bigger Chinese trading partner than Iran is. If it came down to deciding whether to get to trade with the US or getting to trade with Iran, China would have every reason to pick the US.
I hate this election year, so so much.
You hate it more than you need to because you're panicking.
It sounds sort of like you've got this fear of "Trump starting World War III," so you worked backward from the scary conclusion by picking someone else who might fight us, and then picking a reason why that might happen.
That's not the way to make realistic predictions- you have to work
forward and look at what is the most likely outcome of a given situation.
Trump winning the election is at least conceivable. A Trump who wins the election going on to declare war on Iran or other Middle Eastern countries is reasonably likely. But China going to war to
stop the US from doing that is incredibly unlikely, which makes the whole chain of events incredibly unlikely.
The Romulan Republic wrote:Clinton is unethical, but she is neither inexperienced, nor generally incompetent, nor insane, nor an extremist. She will not willingly do something that will destroy civilization, and is less likely to do so by accident.
Willingness to fight an illegal war is hardly an admirable quality, but it does not equate to likelihood of starting WWIII.
I do have some concerns about her no-fly zone in Syria policy, as that could lead to WWIII if enforced against Russia's wishes, but for the reasons I explain above, I suspect its mostly empty posturing, unless she can work out an agreement with Russia on the matter.
Either Trump OR Clinton is likely to do things capable of provoking other great powers in the Middle East. Clinton is more likely to deal with the consequences effectively, but it's a problem either way.
The big consequence of a Trump victory is that we would have effectively no allies or support whatsoever and nearly every foreign power would distance itself from us. No one would trust him (notorious fraudster) or want to work with him personally (obnoxious blowhard). He's very unlikely to start a nuclear war simply because
no one else wants a nuclear war, and he himself probably doesn't actively desire it either. But he's very likely to lose us trading opportunities, basing rights, the cooperation of other countries' intelligence agencies, and all the other things that you normally rely on allies to provide.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 09:01am
by Broomstick
Grumman wrote:Trump? How about Clinton, the one who already voted for one illegal clusterfuck?
Clinton is slimy and two-faced, but she's that way in the manner of most politicians. She's not insane. She understands that in order for her power and influence to continue a certain stability is required, and that requires a certain level of moderation, compromise, and deal-making She reminds me of the former Chicago Mayors Daley – corrupt and in many ways vile, but there was also a certain stability and the system worked on a certain level. The lights stayed on, the garbage got collected, and the sewers worked. Trump is more of a loot-the-treasury-and-run sort of guy from what I can see, he'll gleefully strip a
nation business of what he wants for himself and to hell with the mess left behind, it's not his problem and certainly not his fault.
Sea Skimmer wrote:The guy is an isolationist who likes Putin, do you people not hear him screaming about it? If anything he will be far less likely then typical US presidents to cause WW3.
This isn't 1972, WWIII won't necessary start with a US v. Russia confrontation.
The Romulan Republic wrote:Upon all the things I remember watching W. say, and all the things I've seen from Trump.
The lunacy is on a completely different level.
As is the lack of political experience. At least W. had been a governor.
W. also came from a political family, including a father who had been president and could give him advice/influence him. Trump does not. Trump is from the “greed is good” school of business and has a history of leaving wreckage in his wake as he tries to advance himself.
Hell, W at least has a sense of
humor, which Trump seems to lack.
Simon_Jester wrote:The big consequence of a Trump victory is that we would have effectively no allies or support whatsoever and nearly every foreign power would distance itself from us. No one would trust him (notorious fraudster) or want to work with him personally (obnoxious blowhard). He's very unlikely to start a nuclear war simply because no one else wants a nuclear war, and he himself probably doesn't actively desire it either. But he's very likely to lose us trading opportunities, basing rights, the cooperation of other countries' intelligence agencies, and all the other things that you normally rely on allies to provide.
Right.
A Trump victory would enormously damage the US influence in world affairs. While that might be good for some things it could also be enormously destabilizing in other cases. If the US economy collapses via mis-management or exhaustion in too many stupid adventures that would also have global effects whether you like the US or not. It may not be WWIII, but it could make life considerably less pleasant for a lot of people.
If Trump abuses the powers of the PotUS to the point that Congress/The People wants to remove him from office I doubt very much he'd go as quitely as Nixon did. Nixon, in the end, had enough loyalty to the nation to resign rather than the alternative. I don't think Trump gives a fuck about anyone but himself. I can't see him quietly resigning. Imagine a scenario where the PotUS has to be
forcibly removed from office. I don't think that's terribly likely, but with Trump it's conceivable.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 09:05am
by Borgholio
Imagine a scenario where the PotUS has to be forcibly removed from office.
And we'd end up with a VP who is even more of an asshole becoming president.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 09:22am
by Broomstick
I've actually lived under Pence as governor for awhile. I don't like him and am actually glad that due to Indiana law his running as Trump's VP means we will not have another four years of him here in Indiana....
... but despite that...
...I'd still rather have Pence as PotUS than Trump. I have a fair idea of how Pence would fuck up and while it would suck on some levels it would not be a total disaster. You actually can get Pence to backpedal with enough public pressure, it's just damn hard. Trump doubles down against any opposition, no matter how small, and does not let go.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 10:11am
by U.P. Cinnabar
Broomstick wrote:I've actually lived under Pence as governor for awhile. I don't like him and am actually glad that due to Indiana law his running as Trump's VP means we will not have another four years of him here in Indiana....
... but despite that...
...I'd still rather have Pence as PotUS than Trump. I have a fair idea of how Pence would fuck up and while it would suck on some levels it would not be a total disaster. You actually can get Pence to backpedal with enough public pressure, it's just damn hard. Trump doubles down against any opposition, no matter how small, and does not let go.
Of course, if Pence doesn't become VP, his next job will most likely be US Senator. Then, he'll be representing Fascist Indiana for the next six years.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 11:33am
by Broomstick
Right... "fascist Indiana" which has a state-subsidized health care insurance that beats the stuffing out of Obamacare that I've been using the past 8 years. That provides job-seeking assistance to the un- and under-employed that I used to get my current job. You know, this state is not the hellhole you seem to think it is. Under Daniels it wasn't paradise but it was pretty decent and Pence did not manage to disassemble all of the good bits.
So fuck you, I'm no fascist and fuck you for implying I was.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 12:40pm
by U.P. Cinnabar
Broomstick wrote:Right... "fascist Indiana" which has a state-subsidized health care insurance that beats the stuffing out of Obamacare that I've been using the past 8 years. That provides job-seeking assistance to the un- and under-employed that I used to get my current job. You know, this state is not the hellhole you seem to think it is. Under Daniels it wasn't paradise but it was pretty decent and Pence did not manage to disassemble all of the good bits.
So fuck you, I'm no fascist and fuck you for implying I was.
I apologize for implying you were.
Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?
Posted: 2016-07-20 03:15pm
by Broomstick
Accepted.