The Yellowstone RAR! (may be first in a series)

[Broomstick]

My turn to propose a RAR!

You are at home one day (assume it's your day off if you're a working type) and Q appears to you. He says that 24 hours from the moment he first appeared the Yellowstone caldera will blow. You, unlike most people, have this 24 hour warning to do whatever you can to prepare. Remember you have ONLY 24 hours to prepare before all hell breaks loose. Assume it's, say, 10 am local time when Q appears to you.

It would be cool if you could give reasons/rationalizations for your actions. Other members of the thread are free to critique your plans. Might be a good idea to look up what would happen to your area if Yellowstone went kaboom.

Variations:

First variation: no holds barred - you can use any and all resources you have right now as you read this to do whatever it is you want to do to get ready.

Second variation: You can not leave your continent because... Q. Remember, Q's a bastard.

Third variation: All travel must be ground based - no air or water transport.

GO!

(Additional installments will involve the successive stages of this on-going catastrophe assuming there is sufficient interest and I feel inspired. I'll do my Stage One after a few other people get in on the game.)

[Tribble]

Well, Yellowstone is a super volcano isn't it? Does it have the potential to lead to a mass extinction event no matter where I am? if that's the case, then it might be best to simply travel to Yellowstone and be at ground zero when it blows up rather than starve / freeze to death.

Also, what happens if I tell other people? Would I be at least theoretically capable of convincing them, or will Q make it so that they will automatically completely dismiss whatever I have to say out of hand (IMO it's going to be hard enough to convince people without Q sabotaging things)? Would Yellowstone give any indications to support my viewpoint, or will it simply explode out of the blue?

First variation - If Yellowstone is small enough that we're not facing a major extinction event, I'd try to get my family and friends as far away as possible. As I live in North America, we'll obviously have to travel elsewhere. Preferably in the southern hemisphere as I assume that the ash cloud would not be as heavy there (though I'm not a scientist so I'm not so sure on that one).

2nd variation / 3rd variation - I'm pretty sure I'm screwed because IIRC Yellowstone is more than capable of covering North America with ash, and even a couple of centimeters would be enough to wreck havoc on things like roads, power lines, crops, water, people's lungs etc. If that's the case I'd rather not slowly choke to death, so I'd prefer to find something a bit quicker.

[Broomstick]

Well, Yellowstone is a super volcano isn't it?

It most certainly is.

Does it have the potential to lead to a mass extinction event no matter where I am?

In theory... yes. But not instantly. Keep in mind that humanity has generated a "mass extinction event" during the past 30,000 years or so.

Anyone at "ground zero" or in close proximity to a Yellowstone explosive eruption will die instantly or nearly so. (Technically, Yellowstone is always active, that's there all the geysers and hot springs come from, but we're talking about a big boom.)

if that's the case, then it might be best to simply travel to Yellowstone and be at ground zero when it blows up rather than starve / freeze to death.

Ah! I was sort of hoping someone would come up with that alternative! Not that I want to see you die, of course, but people don't always thinks about the "I don't want to survive armageddon and live in the resulting crapsack world" option.

Also, what happens if I tell other people? Would I be at least theoretically capable of convincing them, or will Q make it so that they will automatically completely dismiss whatever I have to say out of hand (IMO it's going to be hard enough to convince people without Q sabotaging things)?

Let say... two sub-variations:

A) You can't convince anyone but those living in your household.

B) You can convince your immediate family, that is, parents, siblings, and children (include "steps" in there, like "step siblings").

Would Yellowstone give any indications to support my viewpoint, or will it simply explode out of the blue?

Good question. Answer: we don't have a fucking clue in real life. The damn thing rumbles and quakes and spews gasses and the ground rises and sinks over time and that's a normal state of affairs. Let's say there is some uptick in seismic activity that has some authorities concerned but nothing conclusive scientifically.

First variation - If Yellowstone is small enough that we're not facing a major extinction event, I'd try to get my family and friends as far away as possible. As I live in North America, we'll obviously have to travel elsewhere. Preferably in the southern hemisphere as I assume that the ash cloud would not be as heavy there (though I'm not a scientist so I'm not so sure on that one).

Ash cloud estimates range from "no further east than Iowa" to "only the southern tip of Florida and Texas get to escape ashfall". You won't know the results ahead of time. (Subsequent scenarios will cover those variations).

2nd variation / 3rd variation - I'm pretty sure I'm screwed because IIRC Yellowstone is more than capable of covering North America with ash, and even a couple of centimeters would be enough to wreck havoc on things like roads, power lines, crops, water, people's lungs etc. If that's the case I'd rather not slowly choke to death, so I'd prefer to find something a bit quicker.

OK, well played. Thanks.

[Swindle1984]

*pulls out maps of volcanic ash depositions from previous eruptions and his handy-dandy nuclear fallout calculator*

I'm in a region in the US that is safe from the blast and will get little, if any, ash fallout from the eruption.

I've got a year's supply of food for my entire family and water is accessed through a well (with a couple week's worth of bottled water and a filtration system). Electrical backup is via solar and two different generators; assuming ash prevents the solar panels from contributing, I've got enough generator fuel to run the house for almost a month. If I convert one of the generators to run off of wood gas (which I have the parts for), I can have electricity for as long as I've got firewood/charcoal/coal to burn. In addition to natural gas heating and stove, I also have a wood burning stove that can heat part of the house and be cooked on; fireplace is currently out of commission due to chimney damage, but can be repaired and put back into service for heating, alongside the stove. Due to my location, I probably won't be called in for disaster relief, so I can stay at home and deal with things there.

The ash wouldn't pose much risk to my garden, at least in small quantities; I have camouflage screen I can use as an improvised cover so only the finest ash gets through instead of all of it burying my garden. And we're moving into winter anyway, so it's not like I've got much going on in the garden right now anyway. And, as I said, I'm in an area that probably won't get much in the way of volcanic ash from the eruption, so I likely won't need to deal with things like my car/generator dying from clogged air intakes, etc.

So... with 24 hours warning, that's not enough time to order things I want online, so I'd just go on a local shopping spree and then sit it out at home. Probably I'd just buy some fresh milk and eggs and a few luxury items that will be hard to get when people panic and hit the stores. Maybe some more fuel for the generators, top off the car and truck, and that's it.

If I DO end up needing to evacuate, I've got full hazmat gear, but would only need the gas mask. I've got a couple spare masks and a couple full boxes of N95 masks I got for free at a disaster relief seminar because the guy who brought them didn't feel like packing them back into his car. Also gave me a couple boxes of bandages. So breathing ash/toxic vapors isn't a big concern.

What IS a big concern is the long-term consequences. How much of the country will be fucked up by the eruption and ash, and how many looters will I get in my area? And is this going to set off other fault lines across the US? How long will supplies of food, medical care, etc. be disrupted? I've got over a year of food, but what happens after that runs out? My garden will only take me so far.

[Iroscato]

Suicide. If it's a full-power eruption, then I have no wish to live in a ruined world.

[The Romulan Republic]

I probably do my best to convince my family to pack up anything valuable, plus extra emergency supplies, and take an unscheduled visit to Europe, or failing that the East Coast.

Edit: Although I'd probably find some grim amusement in the knowledge that we will likely never know the outcome of the 2016 election.

I wonder if, in this scenario,with election day utterly disrupted and the nation in ruins, Obama just says fuck it and declares martial law, with himself as President of America in exile, indefinitely. And honestly, I couldn't really blame him.

[aerius]

Toilet paper. I'm going to need a ton of toilet paper. I'm not wiping my ass with cardboard in a post apocalyptic world.

[Broomstick]

What IS a big concern is the long-term consequences. How much of the country will be fucked up by the eruption and ash, and how many looters will I get in my area? And is this going to set off other fault lines across the US? How long will supplies of food, medical care, etc. be disrupted? I've got over a year of food, but what happens after that runs out? My garden will only take me so far.

All of the US and Canada will be fucked up. Probably Mexico, too, and the Caribbean islands. Not necessarily from ashfall but from climate effects and refugee problems.

The climate effects will be global.

[Swindle1984]

Suicide. If it's a full-power eruption, then I have no wish to live in a ruined world.

Mind if I loot your corpse/house? After all, I'll need it more than you at that point.

Realistically, we're not looking at a The Road scenario here. It's gonna suck, and suck hard, especially if you didn't prepare for disaster beforehand, but it's entirely survivable. Humanity, as with Earth itself, has been through far harsher scenarios and survived. Adapt, overcome, and move on.

I probably do my best to convince my family to pack up anything valuable, plus extra emergency supplies, and take an unscheduled visit to Europe, or failing that the East Coast.

East Coast won't help much, at least not with the ash fall. Southern Florida and south Texas should be good. Either would have access to boats to flee overseas, and Texas has a land route directly south into Central and South America.

Alaska and western Canada could turn out to be safe too, depending on the strength of the eruption.

[Swindle1984]

What IS a big concern is the long-term consequences. How much of the country will be fucked up by the eruption and ash, and how many looters will I get in my area? And is this going to set off other fault lines across the US? How long will supplies of food, medical care, etc. be disrupted? I've got over a year of food, but what happens after that runs out? My garden will only take me so far.

All of the US and Canada will be fucked up. Probably Mexico, too, and the Caribbean islands. Not necessarily from ashfall but from climate effects and refugee problems.

The climate effects will be global.

*shrug*

I've got plenty of winter gear and can build a greenhouse. Mankind's made it through a full-blown ice age before, and we also survived the Little Ice Age, including another super volcano erupting and causing "the year without summer". Crop failures, freezing temperatures, snow, ash, acid rain, the whole shebang. Yellowstone would be worse than the aforementioned volcano and probably have longer-lasting effects (aren't we going through a solar minimum similar to the one that kicked off the Little Ice Age in the first place?), but still.

People will survive. We're tough. We've survived worse before, and we'll do it again.

[The Romulan Republic]

East Coast won't help much, at least not with the ash fall. Southern Florida and south Texas should be good. Either would have access to boats to flee overseas, and Texas has a land route directly south into Central and South America.

Alaska and western Canada could turn out to be safe too, depending on the strength of the eruption.

Hmm, in that case, I might be better off staying where I am (Canadian west coast), at least if its a smaller eruption (I'm presuming this is because the Rocky Mountains block a lot of the ash cloud?).

I figure the East Coast would have the advantage of being the first to receive major assistance, though, since its the most heavily populated and where the major political and economic centres are. But I don't really know.

[Swindle1984]

East Coast won't help much, at least not with the ash fall. Southern Florida and south Texas should be good. Either would have access to boats to flee overseas, and Texas has a land route directly south into Central and South America.

Alaska and western Canada could turn out to be safe too, depending on the strength of the eruption.

Hmm, in that case, I might be better off staying where I am (Canadian west coast), at least if its a smaller eruption (I'm presuming this is because the Rocky Mountains block a lot of the ash cloud?).

I figure the East Coast would have the advantage of being the first to receive major assistance, though, since its the most heavily populated and where the major political and economic centres are. But I don't really know.

Alaska and western Canada would be safe(r) because of the wind and coriolis effect.


Example of fallout patterns after a nuclear attack; notice how the wind carries it eastward.


Historical ash fallout from Yellowstone.


Bigger/more detailed.


Worst-case scenario ash fallout map.


More realistic/probable ash fallout map.


The only protection the mountains would provide is reducing the blast effects of the eruption if it goes off like a bomb.


Some good reading:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_erup ... nt_Tambora

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_w ... 2%80%93536

[Iroscato]

Suicide. If it's a full-power eruption, then I have no wish to live in a ruined world.

Mind if I loot your corpse/house? After all, I'll need it more than you at that point.

Knock yourself out, if you make it to the UK
I'm a pretty terrible example of humanity in that regard - I'd look at the ensuing decades of environmental chaos, civil unrest and resource shortages and simply decide it's not for me, ta, I'm tapping out.

[Swindle1984]

Suicide. If it's a full-power eruption, then I have no wish to live in a ruined world.

Mind if I loot your corpse/house? After all, I'll need it more than you at that point.

Knock yourself out, if you make it to the UK
I'm a pretty terrible example of humanity in that regard - I'd look at the ensuing decades of environmental chaos, civil unrest and resource shortages and simply decide it's not for me, ta, I'm tapping out.

More fertilizer for the crops.

[Esquire]

According to Swindle's diagrams, I'm on the extreme outer edge of the secondary ash zone, and will probably be fine, physically. I'm also a trained public health professional, and will be useful as the country deals with the aftermath. Therefore, I spend my 24 hours buying all the survival rations, bottled water, medicine, and other essentials I can find and printing out everything I can on dealing with massive refugee crises and nuclear fallout. I do have some friends in the 'will absolutely die' zone, so I'll call them up and spin some story about how they can come stay with me for a few days thanks to a deal I got from an airline, as long as they leave right now - I'll have bought the tickets already. If I can't persuade people I actually know... I don't know, put the tickets up on Craigslist for the relevant area, I suppose.

Then, I settle in for several years of a crappy work schedule.

[Swindle1984]

According to Swindle's diagrams, I'm on the extreme outer edge of the secondary ash zone, and will probably be fine, physically. I'm also a trained public health professional, and will be useful as the country deals with the aftermath. Therefore, I spend my 24 hours buying all the survival rations, bottled water, medicine, and other essentials I can find and printing out everything I can on dealing with massive refugee crises and nuclear fallout. I do have some friends in the 'will absolutely die' zone, so I'll call them up and spin some story about how they can come stay with me for a few days thanks to a deal I got from an airline, as long as they leave right now - I'll have bought the tickets already. If I can't persuade people I actually know... I don't know, put the tickets up on Craigslist for the relevant area, I suppose.

Then, I settle in for several years of a crappy work schedule.

Gimme a bit and I can rustle through the 6 gigs of survival/emergency/military manuals and books I've got in pdf format and list them by title/subject; you're more than welcome to have what you want from the list.

Yes, I even have military and FEMA manuals on dealing with "holy shit that's a lot of dead bodies" following a disaster.

[Solauren]

Simple
Head to Costco, and get all the canned food and bottled water I can. Several trips will be in order. Probably getting my parents van while I'm at it.

Also get a Water filtration system, and more track clothing to stay warm in.

I'm on the East side of Toronto, out of the immediately destroyed area, and the thick ash areas. In theory, I should be okay.

[Swindle1984]

Simple
Head to Costco, and get all the canned food and bottled water I can. Several trips will be in order. Probably getting my parents van while I'm at it.

Also get a Water filtration system, and more track clothing to stay warm in.

I'm on the East side of Toronto, out of the immediately destroyed area, and the thick ash areas. In theory, I should be okay.

Still gonna want some N95 masks and goggles to keep from breathing that shit in/getting it in your eyes, assuming you can't get a proper gas mask.




Some of the pdf's I've sorted through thus far:


Medical (all military unless otherwise noted):

Aidman's Medical Guide
Combat Casualty Care
Combat Stress In-Theater
Diseases of Military Importance
Emergency War Surgery
Field Hygiene and Sanitation
First Aid
Managing Mass Pandemic Fatalities
Nuclear/Biological/Chemical Decontamination
Ranger Medic Handbook
Saving Life
Special Forces Medical Book
Treatment of Biological Agent Casualties
Treatment of Chemical Agent Casualties
Combat Lifesaver Student Study Course
Military Water Supply
War Psychiatry
Where There is no Dentist (non-mil)
Where There is no Doctor (non-mil)
Ditch Medicine: Advanced Field Procedures (non-mil)
Edible and Medicinal Plants: Herbal Medicine (non-mil)


Food/Cooking:

A Manual for the Management of Foods in Licensed Fallout Shelters (Civil Defense)
Continuous Potable Water Supply for Fallout Shelters (Civil Defense)
Green Beret Gourmet (jpg's, not pdf; includes both recipes to make the unpalatable palatable- rats, garbage, rations, wild plants, long pig... and yes, they're serious about that last one- and how to safely and properly cook things with minimal resources)
Backpack Gourmet
ANZAC Biscuits (hardtack)
Rabbit on a Shovel: Backpack Cooking the Aussie Way
The Art of Making Whiskey


Survival:

Survival (US Army)
Getaway: Driving Techniques for Escape and Evasion
Physical Fitness Training (Army)
Veterinary Service Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (Army)
Land Navigation (USMC)
The Complete Outdoorsman Handbook
SAS Survival Handbook
Physical Fitness Training (Canadian army)
Weapons and Supply Caching
Survival Poaching (includes sections on how to hunt animals in suburban or urban areas without alerting the neighbors, which can be handy when you don't want them to know you have food... or when you're hunting housepets)
Build a Generator From a Lawn Edger Motor
Handbook of Knots (Boy Scouts)
Field Dressing a Deer
Numerous books on hunting and trapping dating from 1890's to 1930's, not going to list them all unless requested
Teach Yourself the Slide Rule (still useful because fallout calculators and nuclear bomb effects computers are literally slide rules)
Basic Course for Civil Defense (Civil Defense)
Camping (Boy Scouts)
CDV 700 Radiation Detector Manual (also have manuals for the CDV 715 and 720)
Celestial Navigation Basics
Civil Defense in Urban Areas (Civil Defense)
Management of Dead Bodies After Disasters: Field Manual for First Responders
Defense Against Radioactive Fallout on the Farm (Civil Defense)
Drying and Preserving Food
Fallout Protection in Urbanized Areas (Civil Defense)
Woodgas Conversion for Generations and Vehicles (FEMA)
Basic Cold Weather Survival (Army)
Civil Defense for the Greater Boston Area (Civil Defense)
What to Expect if You Get Shot
Homemade Soap
Homemade Smoke Bombs for Signalling and Concealment
Navy SEAL Breakthrough to Master Level Fitness (not an official military document)
FEMA Student Manual for Disaster Preparedness (FEMA)
Winter Time Camping (Boy Scouts)
Individual Operations and Survival in Cold Weather Areas (Army)
Care and Use of Individual Clothing and Equipment (Army, maintenance and proper use of load-bearing gear, boots, backpacks, tents, etc.)
Tent: Shelter-Half and Mountain (Army)
Basic Blacksmithing From Local Materials
Absolute Cheapskate Way to Start Making Knives
How to Make Soap
Midge Woodgas Stove
ALICE Pack Manual (Army, use and maintenance of ALICE load-bearing equipment and backpacks)
Urban Survival
Map and Compass Navigation (Boy Scouts and Army versions)
Desert Operations (Army)
Jungle Operations (Army)



I'm not bothering to look through the whole collection right now, but if anyone is interested in any of those, shoot me a PM.

[aerius]

Survival Poaching (includes sections on how to hunt animals in suburban or urban areas without alerting the neighbors, which can be handy when you don't want them to know you have food... or when you're hunting housepets)

Bit off topic. A long time ago a friend & myself came up with the idea of making an Urban Survivorman TV show. One of the things we talked about was how we'd poach animals for food. Even though we live in a large city the watersheds & parks are full of deer, waterfowl, and rabbits, and they're not very afraid of humans. We agreed that each episode of this hypothetical show would have a hunting segment where we'd make hunting tools from things we found in storage sheds & dumpsters and use them to poach animals. We also learned that catching salmon with your bare hands does not work.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Step 1, see if I could persuade Q into preventing a catastrophic eruption. Humanity will prove entertaining for thousands of years yet if they keep trucking, whereas if he lets Yellowstone snuff out most of North America and then basically everywhere else due to a combination of economic and climate effects there will be insufficient people left for him to be entertained. He enjoys watching us ants scamper about, thinking we're a brilliant species that can accomplish almost anything we put our minds to.

Failing that, probably fuck off to Lava Hotsprings and relax while I await my demise. Otherwise I'm basically right on the border of the rapid death zone.

Not leaving the continent, I would try and convince Q that the North America/South America continents are the same damn continent and hope that works.

For the third variation, I can see Q being a cheeky bastard about what qualifies as air/water travel and claiming I wasn't touching the ground so it's air travel, or that crossing a body of water, even by bridge, is water travel. Because Q's a serious fucking asshole.

[madd0ct0r]

Poor north America. What can Europe expect from the fine ash choking the sky?

Short term economic chaos until trading suspended. Thene rain. EEndless rain for weeks. Flooding and landslides. Crops beaten into a rotting pulp. There will probably not be enough food. I buy a shit load of weak beer and cider. Whiskey and coke too for trading and calories. Beans for protein. Tinned and dried. Potatoes will grow in wetter darker places and so will be a staple crop. The buggers are hard to store though. I'll buy a few sacks for my garden and greenhouse. Might get lucky.
This will not be enough to live on, but should supplement our rations.


Cold and fuel is the next concern . The flat is mains gas heated, and i suspect gas might end up in short supply, doubly so if the authorities deploy grow lights at any scale. Thick block internal insulation seems an obvious step, as is buying a gas canister or three and a burner for them.

[K. A. Pital]

I like my continent (Eurasia) and find few reasons to move outside of it.

Worst case (ground becomes wasted) - search for a good seaworthy sailboat. Around 50k will do. Buy it with what I have. Sail away.

[Swindle1984]

I like my continent (Eurasia) and find few reasons to move outside of it.

Worst case (ground becomes wasted) - search for a good seaworthy sailboat. Around 50k will do. Buy it with what I have. Sail away.

Where would you go?

[K. A. Pital]

Wherever I feel is a better place to be. Somewhere in Eastern or South Eastern Asia would be OK. Maritime traffic would likely drop, causing an overall plunge in the economy, and food and shelter there are quite cheap. Currency will need to be converted to something tangible beforehand, but I have many options to do so.

24 hours are a bit short as far as preparation goes, but I think given that I'm outside of the US, the chaos will develop a bit slower. It would still be enough time to convert property into cash and vice-versa.

[Highlord Laan]

I damned near made Eagle Scout before my troop imploded, and my brothers know even more than me in that regard. First order of business is phone calls to try getting as much of my extended family out of Colorado as possible, and getting my family in Nebraska (where I live) and Iowa to get moving. "Make for the Mississippi as best pace" being the order.

I have most of the supplies on hand, and what I don't have I can get in short order. I stock WAY the hell up on water, MRE's and ammo (.38, 12 ga. and 5.56, easy enough to get.) Hit Wall Mart for gas cans galore and load the shit up. Also rebuild and replenish my "raodside minor surgery" field kit. Then build another one. And probably a third. Grab as many liquid propane canisters as I can get. Everyting is about to go to shit, so my bank account isn't worth saving. Any leftover will be closed out into currency.

As I said. Get my ass and as many family and friends as possible moving east as fast as possible. Most of us own 4x4's of some sort, so good quality roads, or even roads at all, aren't all-important, and keep pushing east.

However....

After seeing to my own, I'll be turning around and heading right back into the Ash Zones. I'm one of those crazy fuckers with a "saving people" thing, and all those poor people in the Zones will need all the help they can get. I'll have an off-road vehicle (modified to keep the ash out of the air intake), ammunition, water, food, medical supplies, fuel and no fear of drawing down on someone of I have to. With the head start I have, it behooves me to help who I can.

Now, I'm no Lone Wanderer/Sole Survivor type. Life ins't a game after all. At some point, I'll run into, or deliberately seek out, the National Guard and/or Military forces that sure as hell will be in the area, and start helping out. Worse comes to worse, I set up a fortified area to rally reffugees with other like-minded people so Federal assets can get them moving easier, and put down the rabid animals in human skin that will try to prey on them.

Assuming I somehow survive, I'll try finding my family later. If it comes to a Bad End, I can die satisfied that I checked out doing my part as a decent human being.

ADDENDUM: Fun question: What happen to the rest of the world, and what happens, when the US gets hit in the face with a literal apocalypse and a significant part of it (including the Breadbasket that is the Midwest) just went full-on Fallout?