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Scenario:

The EU secretly plans to launch an invasion of the US. (Because I said so) It has some time to plan for the attack in terms of ship building and upgrading their weapons. In this Scenario Russia is considered part of the EU. The attack will be launched in 2010. The EU focusses on funnelling most its resources into bringing the Russian fleet out of mothballs and refurbishing it intead of building a fleet from scratch and also focus on building any ships in whioch they can complete by 2010 (Like the French and English Carriers)

In the Far East China decides to settle the whole Tiawan deal once and for all after being tipped by Russia that the attack is coming. They spend the time focussing on building landing craft and any ships they can. (Russia may also lend lease a large portion of their Pacific fleet out of Vladivostok to the Chinese as they are going to focus their attack in the Atlantic.) The rest of the Russian pacific fleet will be used for harassment purposes.

Australia decides to hunker down and stay neutral in the coming conflict.

Can the US Navy defeat these attacks and prevent the amphibious landings on the East Coast and Taiwan in the Pacific.


Assume that nuclear weapons CANNOT be used by any side.

Assume that the US will have the forces it is scheduled to have by 2010, including new weapons systems like the Seawolf, no budget cuts or any nonsense like that.

Assume the US is aware of the coming attack with one week's notice. (If this schews the results too much assume the EU and Chinese achieve strategic surprise.)


To add a little spice to the scenario, if you wish assume that Britain has been secretly funnneling troops and armor into Canada to support an attack on the East Coast by EU forces and will begin crossing the border at T Time with the objective of seizing NYC.

2010 ain't long enough. US Navy and Air Force send attacking fleets to the bottom.

As to Taiwan, China lands and gets the island. For a while.

World economy collapses due to recent events, everybody loses anyway.

Well, in the Pacific, the USN blows the fuck out of the enemy, but the Atlantic is another matter. It really depends on what the EU's strategy is. If the manage to get troops over there fast and are actively invading US soil, they'll probably do a lot of damage and take the East Coast, but eventually the full weight of the US military with no peacenik whinings getting in the way (along with the Reserve and National Guardsmen out in force with every NRA member and gunnut tagging along) and the invaders will be smashed into oblivion and forced out, but not without doing significant damage.

If the war doesn't manage to get to the mainland, the war will probably be protracted and would easily become World War III. The US has got a lot of shit going against it, and I can't say who'd win.

Wicked Pilot wrote:2010 ain't long enough. US Navy and Air Force send attacking fleets to the bottom.

As to Taiwan, China lands and gets the island. For a while.

World economy collapses due to recent events, everybody loses anyway.

I assumed that roughly 7 years would be enough time to upgraded a good portion of the Russian fleet, or at the very least bring it out of rusk bucket mode. Are the Europeans THAT far behind in a naval force? I figured adding England to the mix might also help out.

Stravo wrote:I assumed that roughly 7 years would be enough time to upgraded a good portion of the Russian fleet, or at the very least bring it out of rusk bucket mode. Are the Europeans THAT far behind in a naval force? I figured adding England to the mix might also help out.

Well, Britain is the only reason I gave the EU military as much credit as I did. When politics and peaceniks aren't in the way, the US military is ungodly powerful.

Why are the UK in with the EU. Europe in the form of France and in some occasions Germany have pissed and shat on us many times. Is it just to make things even? Because IIRC by 2010 we'll have that supercarrier and that might make a difference.

Darth Pounder wrote:Why are the UK in with the EU. Europe in the form of France and in some occasions Germany have pissed and shat on us many times. Is it just to make things even? Because IIRC by 2010 we'll have that supercarrier and that might make a difference.

Precsiely Pounder, it was solely to even things up and I was counting on the super carrier. If I said England was on the US side we would just wipe our asses with the EU so I want to make the scenario challenging. Granted it flies in the face of political reality.

As an aside, has anyone read that Olaf Stapledon book, Last and First Men? It has this conflict, all be it from a 1930's perspective, although IIRC, it happens about now. I think it all ends up where some professor invents a sort of deleting cannon, which can annhilate an object if used in controlled bursts. This is shown off during a sort of war time, when the US sends its massed air forces to demonstrate over London while negotiations for peace take place, the scientists massed at the demonstration in Dover, including the American representative, all beg the scientist to destroy the air fleet as they believe it to be hostile. The scientist does so, and in a wrathful quest for vengeance, the US gases Europe and Britain, wiping out everyone. The US then goes on to war with China, and then our entire civilisation gets wiped out as some sort of mega destructive element is mined and is accidentally set off in a chain reaction which detonates all the deposits of this element generating a firestorm which wipes out all but 6 of the human race. And all this within about 30 pages.

Not particulary on topic, but interesting, nonetheless.

If the manage to get troops over there fast and are actively invading US soil

They'll make it over here with the USAF as their escort? I should think not.

Whose side is Mexico on?

JediNeophyte wrote:Well, in the Pacific, the USN blows the fuck out of the enemy, but the Atlantic is another matter. It really depends on what the EU's strategy is. If the manage to get troops over there fast and are actively invading US soil, they'll probably do a lot of damage and take the East Coast, but eventually the full weight of the US military with no peacenik whinings getting in the way (along with the Reserve and National Guardsmen out in force with every NRA member and gunnut tagging along) and the invaders will be smashed into oblivion and forced out, but not without doing significant damage.

YeeHaw! Lez'go kill sum' furreners!

You'd have every redneck up and down the East Coast foaming at the mouth, eager to go out and kill "them invadin' Bastards".

Honestly, I doubt the invasion would make it further west than Richmond VA... Once they hit the Appalachian mountains, the rednecks would start shooting back. You'd be surprised how many rednecks have semi-auto rifles and the ability to snipe. (Portable Deer Stands, anyone?)
Of course, we'd lose several rednecks, mostly to the "hey ya'll watch this" effect....

Several thoughts on the matter:

1) With any kind of advance warning the USN/ USAF will be able to completely decimate any oncoming sea traffic by virtue of total controll of airspace within close to 250 miles of the coast if not further out.

Basically there is no way a hostile fleet will be able to operate within striking range of US soil, there are just too many assets available on the east coast to combat it (not to mention that one week's notice gives time to move assets to the coast)

2) Even if the Brits put their entire combat firepower on the ground in Canada seizing New York would be a lucky bet at best. The airpower not busy decimating the oncoming fleet will be ripping through the ground troops in the form of a whole shite-load of A-10s.

3) A week might not be enough time but it should be close to enough to reposition all of II MEF, 3 ID, XVIII Airborne Corps. A little bit longer and 1st Armor and 1 ID will be in the fight as well. Any more time than that and the whole of the available US ground forces will be on scene. Basically within a week of combat opening the US will already have ground superiority over anything left on the continent.

4) On the Taiwan fron the 7th Fleet is still gonna be enough of a match for most of what could conceivably be coming out of mothballs so a goodly poriton of the invasion fleet from China would likely go to the bottom. Whether the rest could succed at conquering the island is up in the air and might depend on whether the US sends ground forces to back up the Taiwanese.

5) The one aspect I think you might have left out is that this would probably be the time and place that N Korea would go cross-border again and that is yet another fight that goes up in the air but I'd weight it a bit towards the N Koreans.

I'm not sure how many troops the EU can muster but with Russia involved I'm sure numbers won't be an issue, though I suspect it would take a vast number of troops to conquer and hold even the East Coast let alone the US.

Don't forget gangbangers packing assault weapons and such.....man that would be fun to watch.

Just follow the plot in RED DAWN and you can attack and hold the entire midwest

Even if the US Navy suddenly dissapeared the invading army gets beaten like a red headed stepchild because every hillbilly east of the Mississippi will be jumping at the chance to "shoot me sum your-o-pee-in's".. Not only that, but can you imagine the mafia, the bloods, the crips and the latin kings all fighting together? I think that these gangs have a larger weapons budget than Norway.

Long story short:

Taiwan falls after a bloody fight, a Navy carrier group gives twice as good as it gets, but is wiped out. The island is rocked bu guerilla warfare indefinately. During all of this, the North Koreans grow some balls and storm over the 38th taking heavy losses but taking the penninsula...again more guerilla warfare. everybody loses.

the east coast:

The EU/Russian fleet is simply no match for the US Navy even with significant upgrades the Russian hulls are just plain OLD. Not only that but the US Navy was designed for the sole purpose of destroying these very ships. But i will be generous and say that some landings are sucessfull. the landing ofrses are then slaughtered as they are cut off from supply lines and picked apart by US regulars and volunteer militia as well as lone terrorist style attacks.

Stravo wrote:

Darth Pounder wrote:Why are the UK in with the EU. Europe in the form of France and in some occasions Germany have pissed and shat on us many times. Is it just to make things even? Because IIRC by 2010 we'll have that supercarrier and that might make a difference.

Precsiely Pounder, it was solely to even things up and I was counting on the super carrier. If I said England was on the US side we would just wipe our asses with the EU so I want to make the scenario challenging. Granted it flies in the face of political reality.

The E.U would first dissolve instead of engaging in an unprovoked attack. Such a scenario as this one would only make some sense if the U.S were to elect an emperor and proclaim themselves the sole Ruler of the Universe.

In that case, the U.K would fight alongside its European allies, as they don't like to concede to tyranny

Probably the scariest thing for the Russians, the Chinese, and the North Koreans (well, other than facing thousands of well-armed US troops) would be the prospect of a remilitarzied Japan. If Taiwan does indeed fall after a bloody fight, then the main power in the Pacific would be the Americans in South Korea, and the Japanese. A threat to the American homeland might trigger the withdrawl of the Americans from Korea, and out of strategic necessity the Japanese would have to rearm to defend itself.

I think B-52's and P-3's filled with Harpoon's could do some serious damage to any fleet approaching the East Coast. Not to mention the US Navy surface, carrier, and sub fleets.

Hell, you could get hordes of civilian aircraft with quickly mounted machine guns or rockets to harass enemy columns. They cant bring that many SAM's with them. Sooner or later they run out.

Not to mention there might be hordes of militia's forming up from every single state to come and help fight.

The Pennslyvania National Guard could probably kick the shit out of Canada. I seriously doubt any invasion of the US would succeed, and even if it did, it would be Vietnam x1000.

I'm sure Canada will come to our side. They've got enough frenchies on this side of the globe already.

Let them reach West Virginia... highest per-capita enlistment in the entire US of A. There's at least one Natl Guard unit in each county.. and we've 55 counties.

Jennifer Linch is just the newest generation of warriors from this state

Not much of a chance. Assuming that Mexico and Canada are Neutral. Taiwan is overrun. The US military presence will be called back to defend the home land, with only a small force for help with defense of South Korea and Taiwan. The Russian Navy is incredibly far behind technologically. Like the rest of their military, the Navy is simply not powerful enough to be overhauled and rebuilt in 7 years. The only other real European naval military power is the English. Assuming other countries get a military force equal to that of the US, they wouldn't have the experience on or the seasoned leadership of the US military to stand much of a chance. Assuming that Canada wasn't allied or neutral and an invasion route was set up across our northern border, it wouldn't stay open. A swift counter attack would take over most of Canada. The USN could take care of the Pacific and Atlantic with the large carrier fleet, and then throwing in long range land based air cover from aircraft like B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s, other navies would be decimated. If, by chance, a landing was established, it would be quelled quickly by US military land forces, and then you take into effect the large gun-owning populace, well, lets just say that you would have a hard time taking control of a large city, with police, nat'l guard, and able civilian's being mobilized.

LadyTevar wrote:Let them reach West Virginia... highest per-capita enlistment in the entire US of A. There's at least one Natl Guard unit in each county.. and we've 55 counties.

Same could be said for TN (sans per capita enlistment), and we have 95 counties. Plus that little fact of everybody and his brother having some sort of weaponry.