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How would the Pacific War have turned out if Germany hadn't declared war on the US? Without having to think about Europe, the US would have been able to concentrate all their military and industrial efforts on defeating the Japanese.

The ground assumption is of course that the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor anyway...

Japan wouldn't be beaten all faster because the US needed a vast amount of time to build up its amphibious infrastructure for an assault on Japan, and capital ships and such really cannot be sped up. Though many fewer would be canacled so the end fleet would likely be larger in terms of cruisers and above. The nuclear program also couldn't really be sped up.

The end result might be war over in mid 1945, most likely though invasion, or possibly earlier if things go very well in 1942 and B-29's are available in numbers earlier, which is possibul. But sideshows like the South Pacific/New Guinea/Philippines that eat up any form of naval tonnage or heavy bombers must also be avoided, and that's not going to happen with increased US resources being fielded. Simply a ligament desire to keep troops busy would demand it.

U.S. reaches Japan sooner. No abomb. U.S. launches amphibious landing on Japanese mainland. Japan levelled by bombing. Many dead on both sides. Russia invades northern Japan. Japanese defense collapses. Victory declared in late 1945. Countries of North and South Japan created. Anime is never invented.


EDIT: Germany is still at war, so scap the part about a Russian invasion. That would only happen if Germany didn't go to war. Anime's invention is now possible again

Probably about the same, remember the U.S. was sincerly trying to get into the war in Europe, and viewed the Japanese attack as merely a distraction to getting at Germany. In fact I wouldn't be suprised that if Hitler hadn't declared war on America Roosevelt may have tried to declare war on Hitler (though that would be tough because of what he said in his election)

The U.S. wasn't at war when the preliminaries where begun on the Atomic Bomb. Just because we aren't fighting Germany in this scenario does not mean that they wouldn't be viewed as the more serious, if eventual, threat.

We could very well go ahead with the Manhattan project in a similar way as happened in RL. It provide a counter to the German A-Bomb project, be a deterrent to Germany, and used the way it was in reality against Japan.

There would still be a huge debate over whether the U.S. should ally with the Communists against the Nazis, with the Nazis against the Communists (less popular because it would mean sacrificing Britain, but there were significant numbers of people who felt that Communism was a greater threat than Nazism), or to simply back Britain and other free nations while letting both of the bad guys hack each other to bits. Personally, I think the third option would have been the best, as it would leave Soviet Russia much weaker and less of a future threat.

Straha wrote:In fact I wouldn't be suprised that if Hitler hadn't declared war on America Roosevelt may have tried to declare war on Hitler (though that would be tough because of what he said in his election)

He'd have kept some US destroyers escorting convoys in the neutrality zone, and the moment the next one got torpedoed have gotten congress to declare war.

The resource that the US spent on Torch and Overlord get expended elsewhere, primarily against the Japanese, but Lend-Lease also gets a massive kick in the pants. I agree with Sea Skimmer's assessment of the war against Japan (he probably knows Pacific theatre much better than I do), and I add the opinion that the really interesting development is in Europe.

What that development might be, I can't really say. I'd tentatively guess that if the US stays truly out of the German war, you'll end up with Soviet troops liberating as far as France. But I really, very sincerely doubt that we would accept such an outcome, and we would probably join in the war some time around 1943--the Japanese would be recieving a very painful beating, and Hitler would be licking some severe wounds in Southern Russia, so it's a good time to Join the Fight against Nazism.

Sea Skimmer wrote:

Straha wrote:In fact I wouldn't be suprised that if Hitler hadn't declared war on America Roosevelt may have tried to declare war on Hitler (though that would be tough because of what he said in his election)

He'd have kept some US destroyers escorting convoys in the neutrality zone, and the moment the next one got torpedoed have gotten congress to declare war.

Congress asks "What the hell were they doing there? And why were you having them Depth Charge the waters?" And then he's impeached. Remember destroyers had been sunk before war was declared, and he hadn't used them to enter the war.

It isn't helped by the fact that his slogan for election was to "Keep your boys out of foreign wars." and that 98% of the population of America was against going to war at all.

Straha wrote:
Congress asks "What the hell were they doing there? And why were you having them Depth Charge the waters?" And then he's impeached. Remember destroyers had been sunk before war was declared, and he hadn't used them to enter the war.

US destroyers where officially enforcing the Pan American Neutrality Zone which was congressionally approved, and once the nation is at war Congress the leap to a war with German is far smaller.

It isn't helped by the fact that his slogan for election was to "Keep your boys out of foreign wars." and that 98% of the population of America was against going to war at all.

Actually the 1941 Gallup poll showed a considerable chunk of the US population in favor of war, as did that of 1940. Which is a major factor why the Army, Air Force and Navy all essentially got blank checks for procurement and expansion. Public opinion as became rather less conservative after Japan attacked.

Pablo Sanchez wrote:The resource that the US spent on Torch and Overlord get expended elsewhere, primarily against the Japanese, but Lend-Lease also gets a massive kick in the pants. I agree with Sea Skimmer's assessment of the war against Japan (he probably knows Pacific theatre much better than I do), and I add the opinion that the really interesting development is in Europe.

That's unlikely but possibul, Russian manpower by 1945 was at the point that starving liberated POW's where being folded into front line units to make good the losses. They'd reach the Rhine and Nazi Germany would collapse, but I don't think they'd go much further, Logistics are against it and the British will probably make a major landing in France once those defenses are stripped away for the last desperate battle for central Germany.

Sea Skimmer wrote:

Straha wrote:
Congress asks "What the hell were they doing there? And why were you having them Depth Charge the waters?" And then he's impeached. Remember destroyers had been sunk before war was declared, and he hadn't used them to enter the war.

US destroyers where officially enforcing the Pan American Neutrality Zone which was congressionally approved, and once the nation is at war Congress the leap to a war with German is far smaller.

It doesn't change the fact that destroyers had been sunk BEFORE war was declared, and Roosevelt had done nothing to try to use it to enter the war even though that was his intention all along. The fact was that National politics, and public opinion was against him going to war, and saying "hey I sent our destroyers out to get sunk by Germans." Isn't going to help.

Straha wrote: The fact was that National politics, and public opinion was against him going to war,

It was before America was attacked in a very overt way that shattered people's illusions about the nature of the world and forever changed public opinion about it.

Sea Skimmer wrote:That's unlikely but possibul, Russian manpower by 1945 was at the point that starving liberated POW's where being folded into front line units to make good the losses. They'd reach the Rhine and Nazi Germany would collapse, but I don't think they'd go much further, Logistics are against it and the British will probably make a major landing in France once those defenses are stripped away for the last desperate battle for central Germany.

I count a total collapse of German forces in France as a liberation by the Soviets, regardless of who actually does the oh-so-difficult work of landing on the beach and announcing the freedom

In other words... conceded.