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One of my favorite hobbies is conterfactuals. So my question is what do you think would be the effects of a Confederate victory would be?

Long Term stagnation combined with a second Civil War is what I predicat back when they ask that in collage

Mr Bean wrote:Long Term stagnation combined with a second Civil War is what I predicat back when they ask that in collage

Exactly. Turtledove was being way too optimistic when he assumed that a backward, agrarian nation with relatively small population and a significant and badly oppressed minority could ever stand up to a heavily populated industrialized nation. That is essentially how the two sides would square off by the 1880s.

Eventually, I think the CSA would do something to piss the USA off, and then they would be crushed under the Union boot. Huzzah.

doubt it. A confederete victory at gettysberg would have sent the north reeling. If the confeds had one, adn ther was peace, the first thing they would have done, would be to align themselves with france, and begin an industrial build up. A good numbers of slaves were freed by the south during the course of the wat, promising freedom for service,

The South didn't hava many factories back then. I think it was because slaves working on fields provided all they needed.

Not really. The south had few factories because their economy was agriculturaly geared.

Anyway, I doubt the Union or the Confederacy would've stood for very long given a confederate victory.

It creates a precedent that any state can leave whenever they like. Both nations would've quickl(within two or three decades) fallen apart into a splinter of nations.

Probably 40-50 individual nations would be the result.

The CSA would have lasted 10 years tops. The tensions along the border would cause another war where the CSA would be toppled by superior weapons and numbers.

There is a book called What IF? it examines this out come in detail.

Azeron wrote:doubt it. A confederete victory at gettysberg would have sent the north reeling. If the confeds had one, adn ther was peace, the first thing they would have done, would be to align themselves with france, and begin an industrial build up.

No they wouldn't, because that was precisely what happened in the North to make them go to war. At best the Southern Gentry had no interest in industry, and at worst they were opposed to its development in the South. And the South can hardly change their population disadvantage, because who's going to migrate to the CSA? Nobody.

Besides which, the South would have been utterly dependent on France and the UK for industrial goods. Do you think that either nation would want that to change?

A good numbers of slaves were freed by the south during the course of the wat, promising freedom for service,

But the enormous, vast majority was not, and would have even had their lot made worse.

FireNexus wrote:It creates a precedent that any state can leave whenever they like. Both nations would've quickl(within two or three decades) fallen apart into a splinter of nations.

Probably 40-50 individual nations would be the result.

I completly agree. It gets more interesting when you consider world events, the splintering of the U.S. and C.S. would probably lead to a state where they would be too involved in their own affairs (war,political intrigue, rebellions ect.) that Germany would not see us as a threat and wouldn't provoke us into WWI. Even if some Nations/States joined the war they would have little effect on the war in europe and probably all that they would acomplish is causing the war to spread like wildfire throughout North America. Not to mention in the midst of this chaos there is always the chance we'll see a wave of marxist rebellions.

In the long run the only real hope would be the creation of a 2nd rebublic who goals will be to promote unity,peace,and progress among its ethnicities*, and whose Constitution will build upon the first correcting its problems and being more specific on issues such as states rights. I almost forgot to mention that the 2nd republic would almost certainly stress the common language,culture,and history of its members.


* When I say ethnicities I am using it to define National background or to be more specific the Nations which join the 2nd republic e.g. Texan and Virginian will be considered a ethnicty.

I agree about the states splintering but I think that it would be at a lowr level With The USA and CSA still existing because their are benefits in the union of states that a state won't leave unless they get really pissed off.