StarDestroyer.Net BBS

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2612349.stm

Funny headline -- isolating the DPRK would be a bit like making Nemesis suck more or reducing Azeron's IQ.

More seriously, Shrubby's minions are considering a blockade and UN sanctions because US forces are going to be too busy conquoring Iraq to deal with the DPRK problem. So much for being able to fight two wars simultainously.

Enlightenment wrote: More seriously, Shrubby's minions are considering a blockade and UN sanctions because US forces are going to be too busy conquoring Iraq to deal with the DPRK problem.

Not to mention the million man NK army with artillery ready to pound Seoul the moment a war starts, or the 1-5 nukes they are believed to already have, or the threat of China deciding to make some moves towards Taiwan while the US is busy on two seperate fronts. Those tend to make dealing with Korea a hell of lot worse than dealing with Iraq.

North Korea's biggest and only major export is SCUD missiles. There already not getting there oil and the US is not going to try and stop food shipments.

Theres not a whole lots more that can be done.

Alex Moon wrote:the threat of China deciding to make some moves towards Taiwan while the US is busy on two seperate fronts.

China doesn't have the amhibious lift to make moves towards Taiwan. The most the PRC could do is make a lot of noise, impose a blockade, and drop a few bombs here and there. Invading and capturing Taiwan is completely beyond the PRC's reach at the moment.

Nor, for that matter, are the Chinese stupid enough to threaten their economic growth by starting an offensive war.

Alex Moon wrote:

Enlightenment wrote: More seriously, Shrubby's minions are considering a blockade and UN sanctions because US forces are going to be too busy conquoring Iraq to deal with the DPRK problem.

Not to mention the million man NK army with artillery ready to pound Seoul the moment a war starts, or the 1-5 nukes they are believed to already have, or the threat of China deciding to make some moves towards Taiwan while the US is busy on two seperate fronts. Those tend to make dealing with Korea a hell of lot worse than dealing with Iraq.

I'd like to point out that by initiating economic sanctions, the US is actually trying to give the NK a way out of the position they've boxed themselves into. They can agree to shut down the program and allow inspectors back in to monitor in exchange for and end to sanctions and the resume of oil delivery. The US gets the status quo that it had before, perhaps better since it can negotiate a more stringent oversight of the North Koreans to prevent them from breaking any new agreement like they did the 1994 ones.

Sea Skimmer wrote:the US is not going to try and stop food shipments.

I wouldn't bet on that. The US (and the ROK, for that matter) has already tried linking food aid to political preconditions. Given that much of the DPRK population is thought to be starving it's not much of a stretch--in terms of ethics--to go from there to actively blocking food shipments from third parties.

Enlightenment wrote:

Alex Moon wrote:the threat of China deciding to make some moves towards Taiwan while the US is busy on two seperate fronts.

China doesn't have the amhibious lift to make moves towards Taiwan. The most the PRC could do is make a lot of noise, impose a blockade, and drop a few bombs here and there. Invading and capturing Taiwan is completely beyond the PRC's reach at the moment.

Nor, for that matter, are the Chinese stupid enough to threaten their economic growth by starting an offensive war.

It doesn't have to invade. By blockading Taiwan and possibly bombing a few targets, China would force the US to choose between sending Naval forces to assist Taiwan, or keeping them close enough to assist US and SK forces. If the US chooses to send forces, then it could be seen as an abandonment of the SK in favor of the Taiwanese, and hurt the reputation of the US with Asian democracies, as well as hurt the morale of troops fighting the North Koreans. If the US keeps it's forces near Korea, then either the Chinese can negotiate large concessions from the US in exchange for a withdrawl of its blockade, or it can simply stay put, and by the time the US is able to deal with the blockade, its reputation with Taiwan will be hurt, and China will have gained a more powerful position.

Alex Moon wrote:

Enlightenment wrote:

Alex Moon wrote:the threat of China deciding to make some moves towards Taiwan while the US is busy on two seperate fronts.

China doesn't have the amhibious lift to make moves towards Taiwan. The most the PRC could do is make a lot of noise, impose a blockade, and drop a few bombs here and there. Invading and capturing Taiwan is completely beyond the PRC's reach at the moment.

Nor, for that matter, are the Chinese stupid enough to threaten their economic growth by starting an offensive war.

It doesn't have to invade. By blockading Taiwan and possibly bombing a few targets, China would force the US to choose between sending Naval forces to assist Taiwan, or keeping them close enough to assist US and SK forces. If the US chooses to send forces, then it could be seen as an abandonment of the SK in favor of the Taiwanese, and hurt the reputation of the US with Asian democracies, as well as hurt the morale of troops fighting the North Koreans. If the US keeps it's forces near Korea, then either the Chinese can negotiate large concessions from the US in exchange for a withdrawl of its blockade, or it can simply stay put, and by the time the US is able to deal with the blockade, its reputation with Taiwan will be hurt, and China will have gained a more powerful position.

Umm, no

That means moving a carrier about 200 miles, a trip of perhaps 6 hours. A single full deck strike would wipe out much of the PLAN, which in any case would suffer heavily overwhelming the ROC's navy. The US would also need to send a few subs to clear out the PLAN Romeo clone hoard.

A blockade would be broken in less then two days action and the disruption to USN assest would be minimal.

Enlightenment wrote:More seriously, Shrubby's minions are considering a blockade and UN sanctions because US forces are going to be too busy conquoring Iraq to deal with the DPRK problem. So much for being able to fight two wars simultainously.

The two-war requirement doesn't mean fighting both with equal force, but by pounding one and "holding" the other and then shifting forces as needed, IIRC.