Global Mean Temperature ([Finale]: 6/25/09)

[Redleader34]

This would make an interesting Discovery channel mini series, that would be like the fall an re rise of man. I how that the space humans survive... (BSG crossover...)

[Falcon]

Its well written and I like the style, but there's just too much propaganda to wade through for me to like it overall.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

Its well written and I like the style, but there's just too much propaganda to wade through for me to like it overall.

Propaganda!?

I would like you to enumerate all instances thereof, then.

[Falcon]

Its well written and I like the style, but there's just too much propaganda to wade through for me to like it overall.

Propaganda!?

I would like you to enumerate all instances thereof, then.

Global warming destroys the world....

[White Haven]

So...in a fictional environment based on the premise of the collapse of global civilization due to global warming...you complain about the global warming.

What in the fuck would the story be about, otherwise? That's the core concept of the damn thing.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

Its well written and I like the style, but there's just too much propaganda to wade through for me to like it overall.

Propaganda!?

I would like you to enumerate all instances thereof, then.

Global warming destroys the world....

Ah, so you refuse to back up your assertion? I may not care much, but others here won't be so accomodating.

[Falcon]

I don't believe in global warming, certainly not that it could be such a disaster, thus I don't like the premise for the entire story. Despite that I wanted to acknowledge the writer's style and ability. I hardly expect that the author wants a huge debate about global warming cluttering up the story thread.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?t=105721

To avoid your mess cluttering up the author's thread with a huge debate, I started a new thread. Please post responses there.

[Surlethe]

Its well written and I like the style,

Well, thank you.

but there's just too much propaganda to wade through for me to like it overall.

Several points here. First and most importantly, I'm well aware that the climate science in the story is not all it could be; I've already linked to my source, and been informed that it is not the most accurate assessment of what's going to happen in the next few centuries.

Second, global warming is an instrument to convey the story's main point, not the point itself, which is why I've left the climate change alone (for at least this draft). If you'd bothered to read the story so far and the thread commentary, you'd see that moralizing about global warming is at best an auxiliary theme.

Third, despite the fact that the future climate in this story is improbable, global warming is occurring, and anybody (read: you) who thinks that it is either not a threat to civilization as we know it or not caused by humans is either stupid, ill-informed, or both.

[Surlethe]

I can't help but think I'm somehow to blame for this depressing outlook, what with my rantings about ARMAGEDDON after reading that Mark Lynas article.

Yes, it's your fault. All your fault. Vividly described apocalyptic scenarios tend to fire the imagination a bit, don't you know?

Ah well, I happen to like these kinds of stories (I own Threads, dammit), so keep up the good work.

Thanks.

Now, where are those royalties and pie I was promised?

Check and pie are in the mail. Haven't you gotten them yet?

[Xon]

So it's that bad, huh?

It's a little depressing, to be honest. Wouldn't some sort of civilization start rising again after 11 thousand years? There's bound to be enough stuff left over for that, even when discounting projects like the late "seed vault" the Norwegians are going to build.

Nope, all the easy minable metals are gone. Without these it is imposible to move from the stone age to any type of metal.

The Ancient Greeks could virtually pickup near-pure metal igots off the ground, or just needing to dig down a few meters. The Legacy of Modern Mining, is you need to dig several kilometres underground and require extensive refining to get usable metal.

Any crash which destroys our ability to dig up metal from multi-km deap mines is an un-recoverable crash.

[CaptainChewbacca]

I liked it. Surlethe knows I don't agree with all of his science, and we've had a few long talks about his concepts, but the fact is that it is a really well-written story which explores a line of thought to its ultimate conclusion.

[Medic]

Darwinian selection is obviously at work here; it will be interesting to see how far the various survivor populations have diverged if and when they're ever reunited. And how much "human" remains in them; the humans themselves could make up the evolutionary stock from which the next "generation" of megafauna is derived. You already have at least one subspecies which can digest grass; their descendants won't need large brains to survive, or bipedalism, or grasping digits.

And I'm very curious to see how that shuttle launch we saw in the beginning pays off.

So we can't have mermaids without the collapse of civilization? Great. Your story sucks Surlethe.

Though in all seriousness, I'm surprised you were not aware of melting ice caps fucking up salinity levels in the ocean. Hell, you can see that on the National Geographic channel. Although I'm still no climatologist so I can't say how much that could counter-act global warming.

Quick google search (site:.edu melting polar ice caps global thermal conveyer) nets this:

The oceans are extremely important in regulating climate. Over half of the solar radiation absorbed by our planet is taken up by the oceans. This energy, once absorbed, is redistributed by ocean currents. The mass movement of water performed by the oceans plays a key role in the control of climate.

[Alferd Packer]

I also enjoy this story quite a bit. I'd love to also see what's going on in other high-lattitude regions of the world, like Greenland or Svalbard. As these places would have had, effectively, ten thousand+ years of complete isolation, it would be interesting to see what kind of societies develop in such extreme locations.

As a more general question, how do the future humans deal with polar night and polar day? As implied before, most of humanity exists close to the polar circles of the planet, and at least some of them (especially those living on, say, Baffin Island, Victoria Island, Ellesmere Island, Novaya Zemlya, and Svalbard, who would have little choice in the matter) would experience prolonged periods of both complete darkness and total sunlight each year. If they couldn't migrate south of the Arctic Circle, would they even be able to survive in total darkness?

[Simplicius]

These are very well-written. Thank you.

[Uraniun235]

How high are you going to have the global mean temperature reach?

[John Chris]

*shudders*

Stories like these give me nightmares. I once had a nightmare about the sun turning into a Red Giant and burning up everything when I was 8. Sucked to be a kid who knew more than he wanted to know.

Other than that, I see that while extreme, humanity has indeed fallen so hard it would never recover, unless a miracle occurs and I'm not holding out for miracles.

I also liked how you made 20th century technology out to be magic. Arthur C. Clarke did say that any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic after all.

How high are you going to have the global mean temperature reach?

Looks like it stabilized between 13926 and 14135, around 12000 years from now (*shudders again as his mind strives to wrap around the sheer time length*).

...

...

T_T Hold me! I'm scared!

[Singular Quartet]

No. You aren't pretty enough. Or maybe you are. I have no idea. Either way, I'd appreciate reading some more of this. Likewise, I'd also appreciate people not bumping it until Surlethe posts more.

[The_Saint]

Just found this story (by way of clicking on the pic in Surlethe's signature).
I think it's very well written and was wondering if there was going to be any more?
I noticed someone pointing out the oceanic thermal sink problem... but as Surlethe pointed out this isn't about global warming per se but more of the fall of man.. I notice there are similarities with the story Prophet Without Honour which is a book about the back story of the MMORPG Anarchy Online, has a global pandemic and nuclear war (both started by a corporation) and then humans turning to a tribal way of life and slowly returning to small cities.

Thumbs up to the author from me though

[Surlethe]

November 30, 56720
Global Mean Temperature: 24.8° C

For tens of thousands of years, Canadian humans had been living in larger and larger roving social groups, eating whatever nuts and berries they could find, and grass to stave off starvation. Jam's group was one of these. Jam himself was nineteen, and of marriageable age, if his parents could find someone to marry him off to. He was the tallest of his mother's six children, and second-oldest. Jan was older; she'd been married two years already, had two kids and was pregnant with a third.

Jam rolled over, blinked at the bright morning sky. The grass waving around him was golden brown and heavy with seeds; the rest of his clan was stirring in the distance. He'd slept the night away from the majority of the clan: slightly dangerous, but also rare, and it proved that he could face the possibility of danger and conquer his fear. He had his eye on a pretty girl, a couple of years younger than him, with nice eyes and wide, round hips; his little stunt was sure to impress her.

He pushed himself up, squatting to rise, and froze, sniffed the air. There it was: the distinct musk of a wild dog. His ears quivered as he slowly rotated his head. Grass rustling, more than the wind, from two different directions, and -- the hiss of breath from a third? Slowly, he narrowed his eyes, and swiveled his head around again. Now, looking for it, he could see the grass stalks moving, and for an instant, he thought he glimpsed an outline of bunched, furry body. Adrenaline pumped through him, and his muscles tensed.

Jam leaned forward, senses tuned to the grass around him. Another distinct rustle from the third direction: they were sneaking closer. Was anything between him and the clan? Another slow rotation of the head, scanning; no response. A small, three-dog hunting pack, then. In the distance, he could hear the buzzing of insects as they moved in and out of the tops of the grass. Slowly, slowly, he rotated himself. Every hair on his body was standing on end. After a minute and a half, more than one hundred twenty heartbeats later, he could hear the clan in front of him. The small, hair-covered bulb at top of the cleft between his buttocks quivered in time with his muscles. He slowly ground the balls of his feet into the ground beneath him.

And . . . NOW! He exploded forward and, an instant later, heard a chorus of snarls behind him. The grass rustled furiously, and he heard the pound of feet on the ground. Grass whipped by him; the clan was only one hundred meters in front of him, and there was safety in numbers. He could hear the wind whistle by his ears. Behind him, the feet were gaining. He leaned forward a little more and dug his feet into the ground as he sprinted. If his body hadn't been covered with hair, he'd have had a thousand small cuts open on his face and shoulders by now.

One of the dogs was almost beside him. He risked a glance, caught a red mouth, white teeth, and a flash of grey-brown fur. The dogs were normal-side, as tall as his elbow, and one was up beside him -- gaining and driving him to the left, trying to separate him from the clan. Jam took a risk, hunched down without breaking his pace, and drove his shoulder into the side of the dog. It bounced away and snapped at him; though the adrenaline didn't let his brain register pain, he felt his shoulder tear, and an instant later his arm was slick with bright red blood.

This was it: the final stretch. He pushed back, pulling out reserves of strength he didn't realize he had. The dog he'd pushed away was to his right behind him and gaining again; another was on his left, snarling and biting at him. He felt teeth catch at his waist and then he shook them off, felt blood slide down his side. Then he was in the clearing, rushing past the line of taller adults into the circle of youngsters, where he collapsed, exhausted. The three wild dogs slunk into the clearing, growled for a moment; but they couldn't get away with an attack on a circle of fifty keyed-up, ready adult humans. The humans were all screaming and shouting now: an intimidating display, especially since several were a head taller than Jam and correspondingly more muscular.

Jam's body hair was slick and matted with already-clotting blood and grass seeds. As he relaxed, he winced and groaned for an instant as the pain set in. His parents were squatting at his side; he looked up at them and smiled for a second. At his other side, the girl he'd been eyeing was squatting, a startled and worried look on her pretty face. He looked her in the eye and grinned weakly. Then delicate hands were putting grass mats on the wounds, and he relaxed back, losing himself in the pain.

[XaLEv]

For hundreds of thousands of years

Did you mean tens of thousands?

[Surlethe]

Yes, thank you. Got ahead of myself a little bit there.

[Surlethe]

As a more general question, how do the future humans deal with polar night and polar day? As implied before, most of humanity exists close to the polar circles of the planet, and at least some of them (especially those living on, say, Baffin Island, Victoria Island, Ellesmere Island, Novaya Zemlya, and Svalbard, who would have little choice in the matter) would experience prolonged periods of both complete darkness and total sunlight each year. If they couldn't migrate south of the Arctic Circle, would they even be able to survive in total darkness?

That's a good question, and one I embarrassingly haven't considered yet. I suppose they adapt, just like everything else. After all, humans do have some night vision to work with, and as time goes on, it stands to reason the night vision will incrementally improve along with all the other senses for living at night during winter.

How high are you going to have the global mean temperature reach?

I think it's going to stabilize just beneath 26 C for the time being, though climate will change back and forth through the course of the story.

[metavac]

By the way, Surlethe's story lays out a pretty cute blueprint for building a future history--through series of short vignettes or maybe even short stories. Rather than spending a lot of time meticulously playing God in a 'universe,' it might be more interesting for the author and his audience to expound on the background through little tales like these. There's even an analogue in fantasy--the bits and pieces of the Tolkien legendarium.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

By the way, Surlethe's story lays out a pretty cute blueprint for building a future history--through series of short vignettes or maybe even short stories. Rather than spending a lot of time meticulously playing God in a 'universe,' it might be more interesting for the author and his audience to expound on the background through little tales like these. There's even an analogue in fantasy--the bits and pieces of the Tolkien legendarium.

I've been doing that with the history of the Taloran species for the TGG--I have stories set in their equivalent of the late medieval period and some vignettes and historical tales from the founding of the Valerian Dynasty as well as a continuum of historical documents and cultural ones. Considering their civilized history spans more than 33,000 human years that's a fairly challenging thing to work on, but it turns out to be very rewarding.

This story is of course enormously grim, though the long-term survival of humanity not being in doubt is correct. Lystrosaurus was basically a late Permian sort of pig, the animal which most directly competes with the modern human role in the environment, and they survived the PT boundary extinction to go on to thrive in the Triassic. Probably because they were so goddamned dirt-common, but also likely because of a very broad diet like our own.