A repeat of Osirak?

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-05-09 01:54pm

http://www.indolink.com/displayArticleS ... 0804113429

Washington, May 9 (NNN): Israel may be preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities within the year, according to US administration assessments reported on Israeli Army Radio on Saturday.

The report was first released by an American wire service, which said President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had discussed the issue during Sharon's visit to the White House on April 14.

The possibility of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities came up when the two leaders were discussing a likely Israeli response to the completion of an Iranian nuclear bomb, the wire service said.

Following the meeting, Bush said it was inconceivable for the Middle East that Iran acquired nuclear weapons.

The news agency and the Israeli Army Radio quoted US and Israeli officials as saying that the attempt to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons had been discussed at various levels, as well as the effects such an attack would have on US efforts in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf.

The wire service report said: "US authorities have extensively considered the possibility that Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities, perhaps this year".

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-05-09 01:58pm

Repeated here:

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking ... -6139r.htm

Einhander Sn0m4n · Post by **Einhander Sn0m4n** » 2004-05-09 02:19pm

Oh this is fucking great. I always thought I, P, Ir, etc. were all acting like racist little children (I: You blew up my bus station so I get to bulldoze the homes of your citizens because they're not real humans! P: Well YOU bulldozed our houses LAST WEEK so thats why we're bombing you! I: Oh Yeah, well you blew up one of our malls three months ago so I get to start randomly launching rockets into your neighborhoods! P: Well YOU killed one of our biggest bullies^H^H^H^H^Hterrori^H^H^H^H"friends" so WE get to bomb your civilians AGAIN! EAT THAT!), and I'm not about to die because full-grown adults with childish tendencies can't stop obsessively-compulsively fighting a stupid, pointless little war and drawing in half the world in the process by growing nuclear hardons!

I think we should just abandon the ME for a few centuries; maybe they'll get the hint that throwing thousands of lives into the meat grinder for no goddamn reason at all is WRONG!

Aaron · Post by **Aaron** » 2004-05-09 08:09pm

I find it distressing that the Americans are not protesting this. An action of this type by Israel has to potential to destabilize the rest of the Middle East. And if Iran has nuclear weapons than they may just be tempted to use them in retaliation for an attack by Israel.

Does anyone know what Irans capacity to wage war beyond it's immediate borders are? I know that they didn't do too well against Iraq, so I don't expect them to be able to stomp Israel. But they could fling missiles at them.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-05-09 08:12pm

And so it begins...

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2004-05-09 08:12pm

The idea of open warfare between Israel and Iran scares me more than a nuclear Iran.

Not that that isn't scary.

Aaron · Post by **Aaron** » 2004-05-09 08:21pm

Howedar wrote:The idea of open warfare between Israel and Iran scares me more than a nuclear Iran.

Not that that isn't scary.

Does Iran even have the capacity to wage war beyond it's own borders? I know that Israel does, but it's a modern military. Iran is the same country that resorted to human wave attacks to defend against Iraq. I honestly don't think that they have the ability to attack Israel besides a missile exchange.

Ubiquitous · Post by **Ubiquitous** » 2004-05-09 08:28pm

If I was an Israeli, I'd be very scared if Iran went nuclear. In fact, I'm British and I'd be scared if they went nuclear: Iran cannot ever be allowed to join the nuclear club, considering the fallout if there was yet an other revolution in the country.

Israel's attack on Iraq was widely condemed at the time. In the long run, the prospect of a nuclear-capable Saddam Hussein is much scarier than the sorry state he is in now.

In short: whilst this may not be the moral or 'right' thing to do, the plan does has its merits. It's a tough decision to make...

Axis Kast · Post by **Axis Kast** » 2004-05-09 08:34pm

Iran does have limited power projection. Before the Revolution, they had a very respectable military. Something like 25,000 were training in the United States at the time, IIRC.

Today, of course, the Iranians are much worse-off - but the fact that they haven't had excessive purges for the past two decades alone means they're almost certainly competent. What holds them in check is really the promise of U.S. retaliation.

Chris OFarrell · Post by **Chris OFarrell** » 2004-05-09 10:19pm

Uh how are Israel and Iran going to go at each other with Iraq and 120,000 US troops sitting between them? It would amount to a US/Israelie attack on Iran given that the aircraft from Israel would have to go through Iraqi airspace....

Crown · Post by **Crown** » 2004-05-10 12:08am

Chris OFarrell wrote:Uh how are Israel and Iran going to go at each other with Iraq and 120,000 US troops sitting between them? It would amount to a US/Israelie attack on Iran given that the aircraft from Israel would have to go through Iraqi airspace....

THANK YOU!

Jesus, I was wondering if people responding to this thread were ignorant of geography or something, what planes does Israel posses that could allow it the range to attack Iran and get back to Israel?

Unless Israel decides to lob a few Jericho 2's at Iran, which are either a hell of a lot more accurant than anything else in the world (if they are armed with conventional weapons), or they are going to be nuclear tipped!

Not that this makes any difference since unlike Iraq, which had only 1 dedicated nuclear facility at Osirak, Iran's nuclear facilities are spread out all over the country.

The only way this could work is if Turkey, or the US assisted Israel, which I really don't think they would be stupid enough to do.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-05-10 01:33am

Chris OFarrell wrote:Uh how are Israel and Iran going to go at each other with Iraq and 120,000 US troops sitting between them? It would amount to a US/Israelie attack on Iran given that the aircraft from Israel would have to go through Iraqi airspace....

Saudi airspace makes as much sense as Iraqi, and avoids over flying Jordan and keeps the planes out of Syrian radar coverage, that's what the Osirak strike did and the basic situation hasn't changed. Even with F-15E's or the latest flying pig F-16's laden with drop tanks and in-flight refueling its still a very long haul and that means flying high. I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck through a flight of fighters in close formation with a tanker and one transponder on so it looks like a single commercial flight.

However a lot has changed since 1981, back then the Israeli's had no choice but to do an iron bomb attack. Today they could do that, or launch standoff missiles, which could be fired from a lot more then tactical fighters; a converted cargo plane for example could do it and then fly off to Ethiopia or a similar location and there submarines are also rumored to have land attack missiles. Though in the end the shear tonnage needed to destroy both reactors beyond repair may demand a large fighter attack.

Post by **Vympel** » 2004-05-10 04:48am

I don't think it's particularly feasible. Even their F-15I Ra'am fighters would have a hard time making it there, and would be visible to all and sundry. If the Iranians throw up fighters in defense (including their still flying F-14A force) the Israelis would be at a serious disadvantage, and may have to scrub the mission just to defend themselves (i.e. drop their warload and fuel tanks and head for home to avoid running out of fuel from a costly air battle with the Iranians).

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2004-05-10 04:48pm

I would expect Popeyes to be their friend in that case. What is the range on those puppies? Upwards of 50nm isn't it?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-05-10 05:57pm

Howedar wrote:I would expect Popeyes to be their friend in that case. What is the range on those puppies? Upwards of 50nm isn't it?

The first version has a 45-mile range, the second version has a heavier warhead and a range of about 95 miles, which would allow them to launch from more then halfway across the gulf. Popeye would be idea for the job; its warhead ought to be sufficient to breach the containment dome and the accuracy of modern infrared imaging and man in the loop electro optical tracking missiles has already been proven to be sufficient to fly one missile through the hole blasted by another, a tactic the USN used with SLAM against Iraq.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-05-10 06:29pm

Hound Dogs. We need Hound Dogs because they're just so damn cool.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2004-05-10 09:24pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:Hound Dogs. We need Hound Dogs because they're just so damn cool.

You can even use them for extra thrust on takeoff!

StarDestroyer.Net BBS

A repeat of Osirak?

A repeat of Osirak?

Disturbing

Iran or Israel