What does the future hold for the US?

[MKSheppard]

Let China develop more and more really important external economic interests. Let them become even more hungry for natural resources. Let them build a real navy. Japan used to be one of those "ignore everything outside our borders" nations too, you know.

That'll be the end of China, and the re-emergence of Russia as
a global superpower, following the 2024 Siberian War, between
China and Russia over Siberia, ending with hundreds of Topol-Ms
raining onto Chinese cities, in retalitation for a puny chinese nuclear
strike that was defeated by Russia's ABM system masquerading
as SAMs.

[MKSheppard]

And Taiwan economy is already interlinked with the Mainland, with only hardcore nationalism standing behind any further attempts to side with China.

Yeah, the Taiwanese are morons for not rejoining china, despite
the Chinese repeatedly violating the spirit of the "One Country
Two systems" agreement that handed Hong Kong over in 1997,
repeatedly fucking over democracy in Hong Kong.

Yeah, those nutty taiwanese don't know how good it is to live
under the prosperous leadership of Chairman Jintao.

[Plekhanov]

That'd be a damn interesting trick considering we've got 270~m population, first world status, one of the most wired economies,
produce 1 shitload of cars a year, and have most of an entire
continent to develop and exploit. Oh yeah, and we have the Bomb.

Lots of them. In fact, several dozen thousand of 'em.

The only way we'll ever lose superpower status is if something
real catastrophic ever happens to this country, and I mean
wrath of God kind of catastrophe.

20 years ago a patriotic citizen of the USSR could have said many similar things, how many people saw the fall of the USSR coming?

[Xenophobe3691]

That'd be a damn interesting trick considering we've got 270~m population, first world status, one of the most wired economies,
produce 1 shitload of cars a year, and have most of an entire
continent to develop and exploit. Oh yeah, and we have the Bomb.

Lots of them. In fact, several dozen thousand of 'em.

The only way we'll ever lose superpower status is if something
real catastrophic ever happens to this country, and I mean
wrath of God kind of catastrophe.

20 years ago a patriotic citizen of the USSR could have said many similar things, how many people saw the fall of the USSR coming?

Except the USSR didn't have a first world economy by far. Standard of living sucked, the economy blew monkey balls, and no one could change it...

[Admiral Valdemar]

The USSR was a bad example, the Roman Empire might be better. But the point is, the spot of top dog doesn't stay the same for ever. The US has the EU and China to deal with and both are either economically equal or will soon be that and more so than the US. Economies rule all, not how many bombs you have or how many people can get broadband and clean water.

[Dahak]

The US is not going to be a superpower forever. Like all great powers Americas time as a superpower will end eventualy.

That'd be a damn interesting trick considering we've got 270~m population, first world status, one of the most wired economies,
produce 1 shitload of cars a year, and have most of an entire
continent to develop and exploit. Oh yeah, and we have the Bomb.

Lots of them. In fact, several dozen thousand of 'em.

The only way we'll ever lose superpower status is if something
real catastrophic ever happens to this country, and I mean
wrath of God kind of catastrophe.

In their heydays, the Romans wouldn't have believed their Empire would vane someday.
Or the British that their Empire would decline.
And numerous others, too.

Just because it seems unlikely today, doesn't mean it won't happen.

[MKSheppard]

In their heydays, the Romans wouldn't have believed their Empire would vane someday.
Or the British that their Empire would decline.
And numerous others, too.

Just because it seems unlikely today, doesn't mean it won't happen.

Note that both examples you cited were of a small country (Rome,
and Britain) ruling far out of proportion to their actual size. When
they lost their colonies and fiefdoms, they became nothing but
really small countries.

The US on the other hand, has no massive external empire to drag
it down. Like I said, barring some major environmental distaster
in CONUS, we'll be around for quite quite quite a long time.

[MKSheppard]

The US has the EU and China to deal with and both are either economically equal or will soon be that and more so than the US.

EU we can deal with, they have fair laws, and of course, massive
social security state soon to suck them down, along with the Japanese
as their population ages.

Chinese are soon to find out that it kind of sucks when you've
destroyed the environment on a massive scale, nobody has
any drinking water, and 2/3rds of the population is male

[Darth Wong]

The fact that the US won't be conquered by an enemy does not mean it can't experience crippling economic problems during a world realignment of wealth which takes place in the future, nor does it mean that its pre-eminent role cannot eventually be usurped.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The US has the EU and China to deal with and both are either economically equal or will soon be that and more so than the US.

EU we can deal with, they have fair laws, and of course, massive
social security state soon to suck them down, along with the Japanese
as their population ages.

Chinese are soon to find out that it kind of sucks when you've
destroyed the environment on a massive scale, nobody has
any drinking water, and 2/3rds of the population is male

You're assuming the US doesn't suffer the same social problems which, by the way, it will. Your social security problems along with outsourcing and overspending are screwing your economy over. Without a stable economy, you haven't anything to stand on, big home country or no. Of course, you could scrap social security and cut down on spending and deal with the foreign competition another way, but it's political suicide for the most part.

[Dahak]

In their heydays, the Romans wouldn't have believed their Empire would vane someday.
Or the British that their Empire would decline.
And numerous others, too.

Just because it seems unlikely today, doesn't mean it won't happen.

Note that both examples you cited were of a small country (Rome,
and Britain) ruling far out of proportion to their actual size. When
they lost their colonies and fiefdoms, they became nothing but
really small countries.

The US on the other hand, has no massive external empire to drag
it down. Like I said, barring some major environmental distaster
in CONUS, we'll be around for quite quite quite a long time.

Economic, social, and cultural problems won't stop at your doorstep just because you have a large home land.
And you certainly can't threaten a economic crash with nukes...

[MKSheppard]

The fact that the US won't be conquered by an enemy does not mean it can't experience crippling economic problems during a world realignment of wealth which takes place in the future

We've had that happen before in the 1930s.

"We have nothing to fear but a crippling decade long depression!"

nor does it mean that its pre-eminent role cannot eventually be usurped.

What a lot of foreigners don't understand is that US power is not
a constant; our power will expand and contract according to whoever
is in office at time. The Carter period of the 1970s was a period of
contraction, while the USSR expanded at our expense, Then followed
Reagan, who expanded US power. we had Clinton, who shrunk our
power, although he could get away with it since we no longer
had the USSR, and now we have Bush the Younger, who's expanding
US power once more.

I can see the US going Isolationist once again, and our international
presence dramatically reduced, but us being reduced to the level
of Great Britain now? That'll never happen, we're just too big
for that to happen.

[LordShaithis]

The fact that the US won't be conquered by an enemy does not mean it can't experience crippling economic problems during a world realignment of wealth which takes place in the future, nor does it mean that its pre-eminent role cannot eventually be usurped.

Anyone else who wants the "pre-eminent role" can have it, as far as I'm concerned. Frankly, I'm really starting to like the idea of it going to the People's Republic of Dissenters-Go-Squish.

China: Ahaha! At last I am number one! Now to enjoy the fruits of my...

Europe: Chiiiina! There's some whackjob over here practicing ethnic cleansing!

China: What? Again?!

Europe: Yeah, go figure. Anyway, we usually got the US to help us when shit like this came along, but since you're number one now...

China: You're the mighty EU, shouldn't you be able to handle this?

Europe: Dude, we're led by France.

China: Hmm, this is true. Well I suppose I can be persuaded to...

Europe: Hey wait a minute! You haven't signed the Lichtenstein Accord!

China: Huh?

Europe: The Lichtenstein Accord! The global UN-sanctioned environmental treaty, requiring all factories to run on love and output only fluffy kittens as waste!

China: Dammit, I have a billion and a half people over here industrializing! I'm not signing that shit!

Europe: Well if you can wok the dog, then kittens can't be so...

China: What did you say?!

Europe: Anyway, prepare for lots of sniveling and sniping in the UN and international press, and do get over here to help us clean up our mess. We don't have all day.

China: Fuck you.

Europe: What? You can't talk to me like th...

China: No really, go fuck yourselves and die like a dissenting college student.

Europe: But without someone cleaning up our periodic ethnic-cleansing oopsies, ve tend to get very... aack... Achtung! Deutschland uber alles! SIEG HEIL!

Russia: Oh shit.

China: America, even though you're not the top dog anymore, do you think you might...

USA: Fuck that. Canada has finally won us over on the joys of being a non-entity. We're off to the hockey game. Have fun.

[MKSheppard]

Anyone else who wants the "pre-eminent role" can have it, as far as I'm concerned. Frankly, I'm really starting to like the idea of it going to the People's Republic of Dissenters-Go-Squish.

China: Ahaha! At last I am number one! Now to enjoy the fruits of my...

Europe: Chiiiina! There's some whackjob over here practicing ethnic cleansing!

China: What? Again?!

Europe: Yeah, go figure. Anyway, we usually got the US to help us when shit like this came along, but since you're number one now...

China: You're the mighty EU, shouldn't you be able to handle this?

Europe: Dude, we're led by France.

China: Hmm, this is true. Well I suppose I can be persuaded to...

Europe: Hey wait a minute! You haven't signed the Lichtenstein Accord!

China: Huh?

Europe: The Lichtenstein Accord! The global UN-sanctioned environmental treaty, requiring all factories to run on love and output only fluffy kittens as waste!

China: Dammit, I have a billion and a half people over here industrializing! I'm not signing that shit!

Europe: Well if you can wok the dog, then kittens can't be so...

China: What did you say?!

Europe: Anyway, prepare for lots of sniveling and sniping in the UN and international press, and do get over here to help us clean up our mess. We don't have all day.

China: Fuck you.

Europe: What? You can't talk to me like th...

China: No really, go fuck yourselves and die like a dissenting college student.

Europe: But without someone cleaning up our periodic ethnic-cleansing oopsies, ve tend to get very... aack... Achtung! Deutschland uber alles! SIEG HEIL!

Russia: Oh shit.

China: America, even though you're not the top dog anymore, do you think you might...

USA: Fuck that. Canada has finally won us over on the joys of being a non-entity. We're off to the hockey game. Have fun.

Lord Shaithis may have produced a FUQable quote

[Admiral Valdemar]

As wrong as what GAP just posted is, I can't help but laugh at it.

[Arthur_Tuxedo]

The industrial revolution catapulted the previously insignificant Europeans to the head of the world. Who's to say something like that couldn't happen again? Before it happened, people had more reason to believe that China would go on being the world's economic powerhouse than we have today to believe that about the US.

[HemlockGrey]

we had Clinton, who shrunk our
power, although he could get away with it since we no longer
had the USSR, and now we have Bush the Younger, who's expanding
US power once more.

If anything, Clinton expanded American power by building a stable, prosperous economy, a stable political society and international goodwill while Bush has weakened the States/Empire by pissing away troops, goodwill, and billions upon billions of dollars and attempting to push through regressive social values without actually accomplishing much of anything.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The industrial revolution catapulted the previously insignificant Europeans to the head of the world. Who's to say something like that couldn't happen again? Before it happened, people had more reason to believe that China would go on being the world's economic powerhouse than we have today to believe that about the US.

Could very well be the case. With China and India industrialising at such a rapid rate, it's almost like a delayed industrial revolution has hit them finally.

[Plekhanov]

Interestingly Emmanuel Todd who way back in 1975 predicted the decline and fall of the USSR (and who was much ridiculed for it at the time) is now predicting the collapse of the US as a superpower.

[LordShaithis]

Meh. I don't forsee us going out with a craptacular Soviet-style collapse, nor do we have any massive overseas empire to be robbed of. I figure sooner or later we'll just kinda get "drowned out" in economic and world affairs as we get a bit poorer and other countries catch up. I can live with that. We won't be bowing to any foreign powers, and Americans have always been pretty happy to view the rest of the world as some weird place on the other side of the ocean.

[Plekhanov]

Meh. I don't forsee us going out with a craptacular Soviet-style collapse,

Back in 75 very few people saw the USSR collapsing in the way it did, being right before doesn’t mean he’s right now but Emmanuel Todd has some interesting arguments that deserve serious attention.

[SirNitram]

The USA will most likely simply be outpaced economically, and probably eventually fall back into a conservative mindset, losing the vitality of 'new' things that held it ahead so long. This will carry on for a while before things are shaken up again, and it will probably leap ahead from innovation and industrial capacity again.

[Howedar]

Would you care to, you know, post some of them?

[Plekhanov]

Unfortunately for us online types Todd is something of an old fashioned academic who prefers books that people buy to web pages that they access for free so his stuff isn’t all that accessible online (also he’s French & can’t be arsed translating stuff for our benefit) a quick search brought up this site (you need to scroll down a bit) I’m sure there are better links if anybody cares to do a bit of filtering.

27 May 2003

Extract from Prospect, June 2003

Interview with Emmanuel Todd, by Michael Monninger

Many French intellectuals see their country as leading the challenge to US power. Few are as outspoken as Emmanuel Todd, the author of "Apres l'Empire", a best-seller prophesying the decline of America.

Michael Monninger writes from Paris for "Die Zeit", in which a longer view of this article first appeared.
Monninger You predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, 25 years ago,. Now you speak of fall of the US, which has just won the war in Iraq. How come?
Emmanuel Todd The war against Iraq was a military absurdity. The US won a victory over a country with a barefoot army which had been bled dry. It demonstrated its military omnipotence in Iraq in order to hide its economic weaknesses. True rivalry will no longer be settled using military force. The real counterbalance to the US is found in Europe, Russia, China and Japan. The main battlefield will be the economic sector.

Monninger Isn't that anti-American wishful thinking?

Emmanuel Todd Actually, I like the US a great deal. Until recently, it was the most important factor in maintaining international order. But now it is a factor for instability. The industrial core of the US has been hollowed out. The American trade deficit amounts to $435bn a year - the country needs £1.5bn a day in foreign capital. The US is no longer self-sufficient. Europe, with its strength in exports, is.

Monninger But the US is the undisputed global power...

Emmanuel Todd The US was the undisputed victor of the 20th century Now it has difficulty in recognising its own dependence. Hitherto, the Europeans envied the US its standard of living and technological power. This generated a certain modesty. Nowadays, the US leads only in military terms. In most spheres the Europeans have overtaken it.

Monninger But Europe has been torn apart politically...

Emmanuel Todd Europe's strength is based on economic integration, which is independent of political decisions. Whether Governments in Eastern Europe like it or not, they are economically tied to Europe and Russia. The only things they can get from America are weapons: Americans cannot export anything else. The US has created dissidents in "new" Europe, but the latter still depend on "old" Europe and Russia. Turkey realised this, and has kept its distance from the US.

Monninger But Europe isn't a cash register, as Dominique de Villepin put it...

Emmanuel Todd Europe still does not have a common foreign policy. Until now it has always been in America's retinue. Now the Germans have reclaimed their foreign policy, and one cannot overestimate the strategic and symbolic dimensions of this. In conjunction with France, there is a core of political renewal independent of the US, and with mass popular support. Spain, Britain, Italy and the east Europeans represent the "old" Europe, since they have not yet achieved autonomy.

Monninger How can the relationship between France and Germany and the British be repaired?

Emmanuel Todd Blair has been trying for years to be included in the German-French process, but he discovered during the crisis that the two stick together when the going gets tough. We must appreciate the difficulty that the British have. They have real historical and cultural ties with the US, but at the same time they are Europeans. I hope that the British will find their way back into Europe. The driving force behind this will be the renewed violence and and arrogance of the Americans. The British will realise of their own accord that they belong to Europe's community of values.

Monninger What about the war on terror?

Emmanuel Todd The omnipresence of terrorism is a powerful myth, thanks to which the US has assumed the right to crusade around the world, whether in the Philippines. the Yemen or Iraq. The US wants to keep the world on tenterhooks by means of this permanent sense of war. But military methods don't help, in the fight against terrorism. Only police and secret service work can help. The terrorist threat could have been minimised in this way since 9/11, but the collective psychosis of the Americans did not allow that.

Monninger What about the attacks in Djerba and Bali?

Emmanuel Todd They were horrific massacres, but they were not any threat to world politics. These attacks on Islamic soil showed rather the killers' inability to take terror to the West. There were no attacks in Europe following 9/11. I am a demographer, and I'll stick to the facts. Arab and Islamic terrorism is not a relapse of these regions into barbarism - it is the result of a crisis in the modernisation process. All countries go through radical changes as a result of literacy and birth control. Because all the Islamic states have been weakened, there is no great power among them. The terrorism will disappear of its own accord with the end of the demographic revolution.

Monninger What about about "weapons of mass destruction"?

Emmanuel Todd Hitherto, the most lethal terrorist attack in New York was not carried out using poison gas, but using knives and civilian airliners. Only police and secret service work can counter that. The anthrax attacks, on the other hand, came from within American itself. The danger is now that terrorism will be given a new impetus by the invasion of Iraq. Likewise, certain countries will only feel safe from US air supremacy if they do now develop such weapons.

Monninger What about rogue states that back terror?

Emmanuel Todd The Afghanistan of the Taliban was a product of US and Russian reconstruction. In contrast, Iraq was a bloody dictatorship, but it was not a rogue state that supported terrorists. Iran is also not a rogue state, but is modernising towards a pluralistic system.

Monninger Does international law have a future?

Emmanuel Todd The majority of the UN was opposed to war in Iraq. In spite of this, the US went ahead, and thus violated international law. The UN's role has never been so important. In view of America's destabilising role, one might consider whether the UN Security Council should move to Europe, perhaps to Switzerland.

Monninger Numerous rogue states are members of the UN.

Emmanuel Todd The UN is not a club of democracies, but an organisation which tries to solve problems between countries without resorting to war. In recent years there has been enormous progress towards democratisation. This has not been imposed from outside: it is the result of education and the emancipation of women. We cannot start a war against Syria or China in order to introduce democracy in these places.

Monninger The US is the only country with democratic universalist ideas which wants to export its values.

Emmanuel Todd The Iraq War was a geopolitical show of strength, not a selfless democratic mission. But the Europeans must demand that the US does now put democracy into practice in Iraq. With the overthrow of Saddam comes the end of American hypocrisy. In this respect, I am a long way from the deep-seated anti-Americanism of many of the French. My grandfather was an Austrian Jew and an American citizen. My mother fled to the US during WW2. I have a positive attitude towards America.

But sadly, we can no longer speak of the US as a great democracy. Its electoral system is in crisis. Internal inequality is rising. A rich American is no longer comparable with a rich European. There exists a new plutocracy, which is spoiling the American dream. Since the financial scandals, faith in the free market has been destroyed. The US is projecting its own internal disintegration upon the whole world.

Monninger Is America also weakened because it has had to bear the burden of keeping the peace for fifty years?

Emmanuel Todd After 9/11, the threat to the US, to a nation which had until then been considered the guarantor of global security, stirred up great anxiety all around the world. Every country wanted to help. But the Americans didn't want help. They listened less and less to their allies, and became more and more arrogant.

As far as the balance sheet and the financial flows are concerned, the US has long been a drain upon the whole world. The Europeans can no longer reply to this in a friendly manner: they must counter America with financial and industrial methods.

Monninger But won't the power imbalance in favour of the US continue to grow, regardless?

Emmanuel Todd If there is no opposition to American militarism then - as the Europeans well know from their own wars - it will be encouraged to pursue more adventures. Europe and Russia must create a stable strategic structure to counter it. The Atlantic axis no longer exists.

Monninger Is Russia a reliable partner?

Emmanuel Todd Russia is no longer dangerous. The Germans obviously see this in a different light to the French, who have fewer problems with the Russians. Russia is weak, and is experiencing a similar demographic crisis to that of Germany and France.

Monninger Would you like a complete break with the US?

Emmanuel Todd No - I feel a much closer affinity to Anglo-Saxon culture than to Russian culture. But we need a counterbalance to the US. It is not so much a question of a break as a question of autonomy. In order to avoid an antagonistic relationship with the US, it is important that Britain should come back into the European fold. The greater danger is that the US will become more antagonistic and more anti-European. The EU and the UN are strong, but NATO is virtually useless. Russian is a more important guarantor of European security.

Monninger What can the US do to prevent decline?

Emmanuel Todd For the moment, the US has chosen the military path. It would be better for it to strive for industrial reconstruction, to become productive again. The world believes that, thanks to its victory in Iraq, the US has achieved worldwide leadership. In fact, it used military means in response to a non-military problem. I believe this shows that it has lost its

[MKSheppard]

For the moment, the US has chosen the military path.

If that's true, then where's the dozens of Carriers being built at Newport
News, and the massive military draft ongoing now, drafting millions of
people for occupation duties? Oh that's right. There isn't any.

If you look at our budget, you'll see that the rough percentage for
Defense spending has remained rather constant as a whole essentially
for the last few decades.

I think Mr. Todd is just annoyed that we're actually the only western
democracy that is willing to spend any actual meaningful amount of
money on it's military rather than starving it and letting someone else
do the job for us.