Russian hostage crisis...how will it end???

kheegster · Post by **kheegster** » 2002-10-25 06:10pm

The current hostage crisis in Moscow has got to be the most well organised operation in recent times. 40+ tangoes armed to the teeth, and 700+ hostages. No wonder Putin has a major headache. I don't think there is a clean way out of this. There are too many tangos in there, and there is no way the CTs can take care of things without things getting VERY messy.

As for their demands, there is no way the Russians will pull out of Chechnya...that's political suicide for Putin. My guess will be that they will try to negotiate for a few days, then when the terrorists start executing hostages en-masse, the CTs will go in and everything goes to hell.

KG

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2002-10-25 06:18pm

We already have a thread on this. I'll go bump it up since there's renewed interest.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2002-10-25 06:23pm

I've got to say, I think it'll end in blooshed on both sides. Putin can't and won't back down. The terrorist won't. Sooner or later they're going to simply start massacring people and the Russians are going to go in guns blazing.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2002-10-25 06:24pm

Messily.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2002-10-25 07:00pm

Anyway, it will end in shed, but with one of those perfect superspy teams you see in so many movies, the hostages could be freed. Unfortunately, such teams don't exist, because if they did, they would be used more often. But, if the tangoes are to be eliminated and the hostages freed, it will be a triumph, and Putin would be a Rudy Guliani-like figure for a while.

Post by **Mr Bean** » 2002-10-25 07:00pm

Exposlivly

Grand Admiral Thrawn · Post by **Grand Admiral Thrawn** » 2002-10-25 07:11pm

Hostages are killed. Russians come in and kill the terrorist. More hostages are killed in the proccess. Chenaya is fucked.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2002-10-25 07:19pm

kheegan wrote:The current hostage crisis in Moscow has got to be the most well organised operation in recent times. 40+ tangoes armed to the teeth, and 700+ hostages. No wonder Putin has a major headache. I don't think there is a clean way out of this. There are too many tangos in there, and there is no way the CTs can take care of things without things getting VERY messy.

As for their demands, there is no way the Russians will pull out of Chechnya...that's political suicide for Putin. My guess will be that they will try to negotiate for a few days, then when the terrorists start executing hostages en-masse, the CTs will go in and everything goes to hell.

KG

The deadline passes and the terrs start killing the hostages. The Russians go in and try to save them. Depending on if the building is actually wired or not, and how effective the charges are if it is, either a hundred or so or nearly all of the hostages die, and some or a lot of the rescuers. No matter what happens, none of the terrs survive.

If the security forces manage to get enough of them out alive for it to be a meaningful figure press-wise, then Putin looks very good, but there will be enough casualties either way for the Russian people to be out for blood.

A side-effect of this is that the Russians will probably support us against Iraq (Which, today, just was basically telling the terrs up there to let the hostages go, since they know right now Russia is on their side and that could easily change) once the body bags start coming out, and our only security council opposition will appear to be France.

Post by **Mr Bean** » 2002-10-25 07:22pm

Who I always wondered... Why does France matter so much?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2002-10-25 07:25pm

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
kheegan wrote:The current hostage crisis in Moscow has got to be the most well organised operation in recent times. 40+ tangoes armed to the teeth, and 700+ hostages. No wonder Putin has a major headache. I don't think there is a clean way out of this. There are too many tangos in there, and there is no way the CTs can take care of things without things getting VERY messy.

As for their demands, there is no way the Russians will pull out of Chechnya...that's political suicide for Putin. My guess will be that they will try to negotiate for a few days, then when the terrorists start executing hostages en-masse, the CTs will go in and everything goes to hell.

KG
The deadline passes and the terrs start killing the hostages. The Russians go in and try to save them. Depending on if the building is actually wired or not, and how effective the charges are if it is, either a hundred or so or nearly all of the hostages die, and some or a lot of the rescuers. No matter what happens, none of the terrs survive.

If the security forces manage to get enough of them out alive for it to be a meaningful figure press-wise, then Putin looks very good, but there will be enough casualties either way for the Russian people to be out for blood.

A side-effect of this is that the Russians will probably support us against Iraq (Which, today, just was basically telling the terrs up there to let the hostages go, since they know right now Russia is on their side and that could easily change) once the body bags start coming out, and our only security council opposition will appear to be France.

They've gotten away several times before. Hopefully the Russians have the area sufficiently sealed off, but I have some doubts.

Post by **Colonel Olrik** » 2002-10-25 07:28pm

Mr Bean wrote:Who I always wondered... Why does France matter so much?

One of the major nuclear powers and with lots of interests around the globe. Which is partially why they oppose an U.S invasion. They have bussinesses in Iraq.

Post by **Mr Bean** » 2002-10-25 07:31pm

Military I mean, what does France Have, When it comes time to Fight the Soviets I always heard about the British and German Troops plus the American Reforcments but never any word of the French....(Seriously I know quite-abit about American, British and Russian Tatics/Troopcounts/equpment but hardly anything about the French Army)

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2002-10-25 07:41pm

Frankly, whoever gave the French the power to veto a war should be shot.

Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2002-10-25 08:01pm

Colonel Olrik wrote:
Mr Bean wrote:Who I always wondered... Why does France matter so much?
One of the major nuclear powers and with lots of interests around the globe. Which is partially why they oppose an U.S invasion. They have bussinesses in Iraq.

Whoop dee fucking do. The Belgiums invade with 12 lightly armed troops they trey too form a seetlement, and Paris falls in 2 weeks. Now imagine when England crosses the Chunnel.

Post by **Colonel Olrik** » 2002-10-25 08:09pm

Captain Lennox wrote:
Whoop dee fucking do. The Belgiums invade with 12 lightly armed troops they trey too form a seetlement, and Paris falls in 2 weeks.

Do not exagerate

Now imagine when England crosses the Chunnel.

Even the french can place some well situated explosives and press a button. Crossing the tunnel is not advisable

Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2002-10-25 08:17pm

Colonel Olrik wrote:
Captain Lennox wrote:
Whoop dee fucking do. The Belgiums invade with 12 lightly armed troops they trey too form a seetlement, and Paris falls in 2 weeks.
Do not exagerate
Now imagine when England crosses the Chunnel.
Even the french can place some well situated explosives and press a button. Crossing the tunnel is not advisable

But I'm not, 1 Belgium in WWI fought off a whole German Regiment while the Belgium's Army right flank dissolved, and I'll exagerate if I like

. And naturally the fRench would foul up. If not the English should make haste and consildate a beachead. But if not they're gonna have too go old school on the French. Hehehe

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2002-10-25 08:34pm

The Muslims will start killing hostages and the Russians will storm the building in an effort to cut their losses. Except no fewer than several hundred dead. The Muslims are following Allah's orders to die while killing infidels. They will neither give up or negotiate. There's absolutely no way the Russians can afford to back down.

Putin should start dusting off Stalin's mauals on how to pacify uncooperative territories with an aim to kill at least 10000 Chechens for every dead Russian. Light the ovens. It's time to send some Jihadites to meet their god.

This post's service was unavailable (503).

Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2002-10-25 08:51pm

Enlightenment wrote:The Muslims will start killing hostages and the Russians will storm the building in an effort to cut their losses. Except no fewer than several hundred dead. The Muslims are following Allah's orders to die while killing infidels. They will neither give up or negotiate. There's absolutely no way the Russians can afford to back down.

Putin should start dusting off Stalin's mauals on how to pacify uncooperative territories with an aim to kill at least 10000 Chechens for every dead Russian. Light the ovens. It's time to send some Jihadites to meet their god.

This post's service was unavailable (503).

Ah, yeah and keeping it underwraps is the hard part unless their is no Chechen left.

Post by **weemadando** » 2002-10-25 09:20pm

How will it end?

Badly.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2002-10-25 09:28pm

If even one of those explosive pouches the Russian news crew recorded today is real, the whole building could be brought down. Plastic explosive without even fragmentation sleeves suck for killing people and don't produce much blast, mostly heat. But 5-10 pounds are more then enough to collapse at least part of a building that size.

No way to take down 40 people before at least one voluntarily send him or her self to hell.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2002-10-25 11:28pm

Putin should start dusting off Stalin's mauals on how to pacify uncooperative territories with an aim to kill at least 10000 Chechens for every dead Russian.

I'll get right on it, oh tyrant my tyrant.

Alyeska · Post by **Alyeska** » 2002-10-26 12:05am

UPDATE:

The Russian special forces have retaken the theater and claim to have lost only 2 hostages. The Chechen leader is dead and an unknown number were possibly captured.

Alyeska · Post by **Alyeska** » 2002-10-26 12:07am

http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/10 ... index.html

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2002-10-26 12:11am

Damn. If they really did only lose 2 hostages, that's pretty slick.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2002-10-26 12:14am

Google News is m"reporting" on the situation: http://news.google.com/news?num=30&hl=e ... 0743%2estm

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Russian hostage crisis...how will it end???

Russian hostage crisis...how will it end???

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