Official Canadian election prediction thread

White Cat · Post by **White Cat** » 2004-06-26 12:21am

Feel free to post your seat/popular vote predictions as well.

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2004-06-26 12:32am

I say Conservative minority,nobody in his right mind would reelect the crook Paul martin,and on the other side the Conservative will be minority cause the damn Bloc Quebecois will elect lots of shit for brains in Quebec.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-06-26 02:27am

I think it will be a Liberal minority. The instant Harper got the whiff of victory, he started talking about making changes to various things that Canadians take for granted. Paul Martin couldn't buy better publicity than that. But at this point, any prediction is still a crapshoot. There is an anomalously large "undecided" voter block this time around, so there's huge uncertainty.

Jalinth · Post by **Jalinth** » 2004-06-26 08:47am

Darth Wong wrote:I think it will be a Liberal minority. The instant Harper got the whiff of victory, he started talking about making changes to various things that Canadians take for granted. Paul Martin couldn't buy better publicity than that. But at this point, any prediction is still a crapshoot. There is an anomalously large "undecided" voter block this time around, so there's huge uncertainty.

We need a "too close to call" category. The election could easily boil down to issues with MPs (rather than with parties). Locally, I'm seriously looking at voting for the Dippers (

) just to get rid of the local Lib MP. Can't stand the NDP, but loathe the local MP (she deserves to be gone). The conservatives have 0% chance of taking the seat based on last election (add up the Alliance and PCs - still below the NDP). If a different MP existed (Libs do have some good ones), would consider voting for them.

I know the local MP issue is going to be a factor in riding and the margin is close enough that these handful of seats could make the difference. Also, I'm interested in what the Governor General will do if the Libs and Conservatives are very close (with 10/15 seats) - give Martin the first shoot - or give the largest party the first shot at trying to form a viable coalition. Apparently, even under the "unwritten" part of the constitution, she isn't obliged to pick the biggest. She is obliged to go to the person she thinks has the ability to put together a government. Apparently, if she thinks another Liberal could put together a coalition and not Martin, she could appoint them as PM (can't see this happening - but interesting)

Anyways, I'll shut up about the political trivia and predict a minority - whose will depend on the bargaining by Harper and Martin post election.

Solauren · Post by **Solauren** » 2004-06-26 01:37pm

I saying Liberal majority, but by a slim margin
I think the paper's latest poll had them with a majority by 8 seats

Grand Admiral Thrawn · Post by **Grand Admiral Thrawn** » 2004-06-26 01:44pm

No its a lead by 8 seats. Current prediction is 117 seats, nowhere near the 155 needed.

Ma Deuce · Post by **Ma Deuce** » 2004-06-26 01:54pm

Given how many undecided voters there are even at this late point, The only thing I can say with any confidence is that neither Bloc or the NDP are going to win, or even be the official opposition to whoever does win. Either the Liberals or Conservatives could take it (with the loser almost certainly becomming the official opposition), but if I had to guess, I'd say that a Liberal minority is the strongest possibility at this point. I don't think another Liberal majority is very likely, not with the Conservatives running almost neck-to-neck with them, and not after the sponsorship scandal that backfired so spectacularly on them, especially in Quebec (The sponsorship money was supposed to fund pro-unity advertising in Quebec, yet now that the scandal has come out, most of Quebec's seats are expected to go to the Bloc, who are clearly pro-sovereignty)

muse · Post by **muse** » 2004-06-26 03:30pm

Looks to be headed for a Conservative minority, the Liberal's momentum seems to be running out and their gains are being slowly erased. The media, which was on their side for a bit appears to be taking a more neutral stance again. The Liberals missed a golden chance to rip the hell out of the Conservative party for the questionable and racist remarks which one of their candidates made, Harper deflected the blame and the media didn't press him or sink their teeth into it either. Idiots, the Liberals could've ruined him there but they didn't.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-06-26 08:06pm

Keep in mind that all of this data is advance polling. Most people wait until the official election day to vote.

The Dude · Post by **The Dude** » 2004-06-26 11:49pm

It's an almost definite Con minority. It's the distribution of support that counts, not the total popular support, hence why the Bloc will get half the votes but triple the seats of the NDP.

As it stands, the Liberals would likely need at least a 5 point lead in the popular vote to tie the Conservatives in seats, primarily because the Liberals will not be translating their moderate support in certain areas (B.C., Quebec) into a proportional number of seats.

Ma Deuce · Post by **Ma Deuce** » 2004-06-26 11:54pm

It's an almost definite Con minority. It's the distribution of support that counts, not the total popular support, hence why the Bloc will get half the votes but triple the seats of the NDP.

Are there any predictions on how many seats each party is expected to take based on popular support in each individual riding? The only thing I know in that area is that the Bloc are expected to take 65 of Quebec's 75 seats...

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2004-06-26 11:55pm

I suggest this thread be stickyfied,so monday night we all post who was elected in our respective district and how much vote they got.

The Dude · Post by **The Dude** » 2004-06-27 10:09am

Ma Deuce wrote:
It's an almost definite Con minority. It's the distribution of support that counts, not the total popular support, hence why the Bloc will get half the votes but triple the seats of the NDP.
Are there any predictions on how many seats each party is expected to take based on popular support in each individual riding? The only thing I know in that area is that the Bloc are expected to take 65 of Quebec's 75 seats...

A region-by-region analysis in the Globe and Mail on Friday predicted that an approximate tie in the popular vote would lead to a 119 - 101 win for the Conservatives, with (IIRC) the Bloc taking low 60s and the NDP about 20. A similar analysis done last week (when the Cons had a 3-point lead) showed them winning by as much as 32 seats (but still almost 30 short of a majority).

So, unless one party gets a huge win among the undecideds tomorrow, it's a Con minority.

aerius · Post by **aerius** » 2004-06-27 01:01pm

Much as I hate to say it, it looks to be headed for a Conservative minority unless something drastic happens happens between now & the evening news. I can't say I'm happy at all.

Jalinth · Post by **Jalinth** » 2004-06-27 08:33pm

aerius wrote:Much as I hate to say it, it looks to be headed for a Conservative minority unless something drastic happens happens between now & the evening news. I can't say I'm happy at all.

Honestly, a minority government is the perfect testbed for the Conservatives (or any other questionable party). If they screw-up (or suddenly the ultra-right faction stages a coup and starts to turn Canada into their society)- they are gone quickly. Whoever supports them can either decide not to or vote them down in a non-confidence vote, leading either to an election or Martin becoming PM again (apparently this is Clarkson's decision)

Otherwise, you are basically saying Canada is a one party state. Not something I particularly want.

The Dude · Post by **The Dude** » 2004-06-27 11:09pm

Jalinth wrote:Honestly, a minority government is the perfect testbed for the Conservatives (or any other questionable party). If they screw-up (or suddenly the ultra-right faction stages a coup and starts to turn Canada into their society)- they are gone quickly.

This is only marginally more likley to happen under Harper than it was under Mulroney, Clark or Charest. That is, not likely at all.

Whoever supports them can either decide not to or vote them down in a non-confidence vote, leading either to an election or Martin becoming PM again (apparently this is Clarkson's decision)

Historically, when this happens, the electorate tends to blame the opposition and punish them accordingly (i.e. reinstalling the gov't as a majority), with Joe Clark's moronic antics in 1980 being a notable exception.

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2004-06-27 11:59pm

Great there are people saying they have better things to do than vote,but they will always be the firsts to whine against everything the government will do......and i'll be there to tell them You didn't vote.....then shut the fuck up

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-06-28 01:27am

Montcalm wrote:Great there are people saying they have better things to do than vote,but they will always be the firsts to whine against everything the government will do......and i'll be there to tell them You didn't vote.....then shut the fuck up

Why does it follow that someone who didn't vote has no right to complain about the government? He's still paying taxes, isn't he? He's still getting shitty return on that investment, isn't he? Why doesn't he have the right to complain, moron?

Let's say someone decides that the two major parties are equally repugnant and that the minor parties are worse. This person clearly has an opinion, but his only means of expressing it is to not vote. So do you sanctimoniously confront this person and tell him that he has no right to complain when the ensuing government does something bad or stupid? Why the fuck not?

The only person who has no right to complain when a government behaves badly is a person who helped put them into power by voting for them, and even that is contingent on the government's behaviour. That person would still have a right to complain if the government (for example) breaks all of its campaign promises.

aerius · Post by **aerius** » 2004-06-28 10:55am

I just voted. I'm amused that there was a candidate for the Marxist-Leninist Party in my riding, yes, they are Commies.

Col. Crackpot · Post by **Col. Crackpot** » 2004-06-28 11:11am

out of curiosity, where does the Bloc Quebecois stand on the political spectrum? do they have an any position besides Les Quebecois est le uber-grande!! ?

Grand Admiral Thrawn · Post by **Grand Admiral Thrawn** » 2004-06-28 11:26am

"Martin Suxors!" seems to be their platform right now.

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2004-06-28 11:28am

Col. Crackpot wrote:out of curiosity, where does the Bloc Quebecois stand on the political spectrum? do they have an any position besides Les Quebecois est le uber-grande!! ?

Besides their sovereignty wanking....not much.

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2004-06-28 01:17pm

Made my X voted for the Conservative,and besides them the Liberals,NDP and the BQ the other three choices were Green Party,Marxist Leninist and Marijuana.

aerius · Post by **aerius** » 2004-06-28 01:33pm

Montcalm wrote:Made my X voted for the Conservative,and besides them the Liberals,NDP and the BQ the other three choices were Green Party,Marxist Leninist and Marijuana.

You did NOT vote for the Marijuana Party?

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2004-06-28 01:37pm

aerius wrote:
Montcalm wrote:Made my X voted for the Conservative,and besides them the Liberals,NDP and the BQ the other three choices were Green Party,Marxist Leninist and Marijuana.
You did NOT vote for the Marijuana Party?

No since i've never touch the stuff,why should i vote for them......plus like Kang said *Throw Your Vote Away* which i didn't want to do

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