"Bush will win"....Fap fap fap fap

Aeolus · Post by **Aeolus** » 2004-08-05 12:45am

Darth Wong wrote:How many people actually switch party allegiances in the US? And I'm not talking about voting differently than your parents; I'm talking about voting for one party several times and then switching because of your convictions.

with the exception of rebellious kids it pretty rare. Independants are the ones who flipflop between them

Post by **The Wookiee** » 2004-08-05 02:10am

Stravo wrote:If Dalton is reading this you can back me up on the fact that during the DNC the tag line in the Post was "Democratic Love In" and they had a picture of Kerry and a picture of Edwards, Edwards' face looking away smiling and Kerry's face seemingly looming over him like Ace and Garry. UGH.

The Post is nothing more than a cheap tabloid.

Natorgator · Post by **Natorgator** » 2004-08-05 11:51am

Actually, Kerry DID receive a bounce. But, you wouldn't know that from our liberal media's reporting.

From Media Matters:

Registered voters: 50 percent for Kerry v. 44 percent for Bush (6 point Kerry bounce)

Likely voters: 49 percent for Kerry v. 47 percent for Bush (8 point Kerry bounce)

Newsweek

Registered voters: 49 percent for Kerry v. 42 percent for Bush (4 point Kerry bounce)

CBS News

Registered voters: 48 percent for Kerry v. 43 percent for Bush (2 point Kerry bounce)

USA Today/CNN/Gallup

Registered voters: 50 percent for Kerry v. 47 percent for Bush (1 point Bush bounce)

Likely voters: 47 percent for Kerry v. 50 percent for Bush (5 point Bush bounce)

Of course, the only poll that anyone bothered reporting was Gallup.

Jalinth · Post by **Jalinth** » 2004-08-05 12:47pm

Unless something happens in the interim, the race could be close (in % terms - not necessarily electoral votes). You have Bush - polarizing. Kerry - the definition of apathetic. No idea what he supports or if he is simply a human weather vane.

Likely no bounce in either campaign from the convention- the swing voters will be key. Do they stay at home or vote? If they stay at home, then who can get out the vote the best (probably the Republicans - Bush has passion). If they come out, how they vote could swing the one or two critical states between the Demos and GOP

Nader voters could be important - but the main question is whether they are willing to vote for Kerry if Nader isn't an option?

Post by **Dalton** » 2004-08-05 04:00pm

Natorgator wrote:Actually, Kerry DID receive a bounce. But, you wouldn't know that from our liberal media's reporting.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I love it when conservatives bitch about "liberal" media. Fuck, with Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Bill Press and the entirety of Fox News Channel? Give me a break.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2004-08-05 04:16pm

And that's it. Fox News, and a little bit of C-Span. But the major, broadcast (not cale) news networks are pretty liberal.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-08-05 04:31pm

StormTrooperTR889 wrote:And that's it. Fox News, and a little bit of C-Span. But the major, broadcast (not cale) news networks are pretty liberal.

None of them are liberal like Fox News is conservative. Don't delude yourself into thinking that MSNBC and CNN execs pass out memos about what stories won't be covered on a given day because they're not patriotic like Fox does.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2004-08-05 04:38pm

I'm not trying to imply that. But the only choice for most Americas with regards to TV news is the left leaning programs.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-08-05 05:02pm

StormTrooperTR889 wrote:I'm not trying to imply that. But the only choice for most Americas with regards to TV news is the left leaning programs.

And what about the other networks makes them left-leaning to a significant degree, exactly? I can point out plenty of things Fox does, both internally and in their coverage, that clearly paints them as a Bush propaganda machine.

The other networks aren't owned by liberal pinko-commie hippies; they're owned by businessmen. Rich-ass, white-collar businessmen. Do you think they'd go out of their way to support a party which would raise taxes on them?

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2004-08-05 05:09pm

Dalton wrote:I love it when conservatives bitch about "liberal" media. Fuck, with Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Bill Press and the entirety of Fox News Channel? Give me a break.

Bill Press?

Isn't he a staunch Dem?

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-08-05 05:10pm

Chris Matthews? No way that guy's a right-winger.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-08-05 05:14pm

Joe wrote:Chris Matthews? No way that guy's a right-winger.

It's impossible to discern his position simply because he runs out of breath before he can concretely present it.

"SenatorkerryhowdoyourespondtothechargesthatyourvietnamwarrecordistarnishedandthatyouliedtogetyourthreepurpleheartsothatyoucouldgetoutofvietnamsoonerANSWERNOW!!"

*Chris Matthews drops dead*

"Okay people, Chris is down again, get the oxygen tank."

Post by **Dalton** » 2004-08-05 08:46pm

Galvatron wrote:
Dalton wrote:I love it when conservatives bitch about "liberal" media. Fuck, with Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Bill Press and the entirety of Fox News Channel? Give me a break.
Bill Press?

Isn't he a staunch Dem?

Is he? He had a show with Pat Buchanan on MSNBC. Are you sure he's Dem? Maybe I'm wrong.

Joe wrote:Chris Matthews? No way that guy's a right-winger.

I've watched days worth of MSNBC and that's the impression I get of him.

Durandal wrote:It's impossible to discern his position simply because he runs out of breath before he can concretely present it.

"SenatorkerryhowdoyourespondtothechargesthatyourvietnamwarrecordistarnishedandthatyouliedtogetyourthreepurpleheartsothatyoucouldgetoutofvietnamsoonerANSWERNOW!!"

*Chris Matthews drops dead*

"Okay people, Chris is down again, get the oxygen tank."

Hit the nail right on the head.

Hamel · Post by **Hamel** » 2004-08-05 08:51pm

The Hardball Drinking Game

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2004-08-05 08:51pm

Dalton wrote:
Galvatron wrote:
Dalton wrote:I love it when conservatives bitch about "liberal" media. Fuck, with Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Bill Press and the entirety of Fox News Channel? Give me a break.
Bill Press?

Isn't he a staunch Dem?
Is he? He had a show with Pat Buchanan on MSNBC. Are you sure he's Dem? Maybe I'm wrong.

Yeah, he's Pat's Dem counterpart. He used to be on CNN's Crossfire.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-08-05 09:03pm

Natorgator wrote:Actually, Kerry DID receive a bounce. But, you wouldn't know that from our liberal media's reporting.

From Media Matters:

Registered voters: 50 percent for Kerry v. 44 percent for Bush (6 point Kerry bounce)

Likely voters: 49 percent for Kerry v. 47 percent for Bush (8 point Kerry bounce)

Newsweek

Registered voters: 49 percent for Kerry v. 42 percent for Bush (4 point Kerry bounce)

CBS News

Registered voters: 48 percent for Kerry v. 43 percent for Bush (2 point Kerry bounce)

USA Today/CNN/Gallup

Registered voters: 50 percent for Kerry v. 47 percent for Bush (1 point Bush bounce)

Likely voters: 47 percent for Kerry v. 50 percent for Bush (5 point Bush bounce)
Of course, the only poll that anyone bothered reporting was Gallup.

Only one of those polls shows a statistically significant bounce in Kerry's favor (the ABC News/Washington Post poll). Every other one showed a bounce near or within the margin of error or in Bush's favor, including polls not on MediaMatters (though to be fair, they did link to them).

By the way, Al Gore's convention bounce was 19 points. Bill Clinton's 1992 bounce was 30. He only got 5 in 1996, but by then pretty much everyone had made up their mind about him. Before 1996, the last Democrat who didn't get a double digit convention bounce was McGovern, who actually lost 3 points. The last single digit positive Democrat bounce before 1996 was Hubert Humphrey, who managed to gain 4 points after the debacle that was the convention that year. By the standards of recent history, Kerry did thud. Of course, I think Bush is going to, too, because there's virtually nobody left undecided, but this was not what they were hoping for when they talked about convention bounce.

Post by **Dalton** » 2004-08-05 11:07pm

Galvatron wrote:Yeah, he's Pat's Dem counterpart. He used to be on CNN's Crossfire.

Whoops, my bad.

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