Hypothetical Immigration Crisis

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2004-08-08 06:18pm

Ok, here's the situation:

5 years from now, Mexico is in the middle of a massive economic depression, and has a collapsing welfare and prison system.

So, the Mexican government rolls out the buses and starts dropping people off at the border with a wink and wirecutters. 100,000 illegal immigrants per week for eight weeks filter into the US, and Mexico stops taking people back that the INS brings them.

What happens?

frigidmagi · Post by **frigidmagi** » 2004-08-08 06:20pm

1st and 2nd MarDiv are moved South. Bloodbath ensures has Marines make lousy cops.

Mexico protest and sends troops up North.

Take a guess from there.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2004-08-08 06:23pm

frigidmagi wrote:1st and 2nd MarDiv are moved South. Bloodbath ensures has Marines make lousy cops.

Mexico protest and sends troops up North.

Take a guess from there.

Since when does Mexico have an army? Besides, I think they'd mobilize the DC national guard (an MP unit) first.

frigidmagi · Post by **frigidmagi** » 2004-08-08 07:20pm

Since when does Mexico have an army?

Since it's foundation. Mexico is a for real country and has an army, navy the works.

You can even find sailors of the Mexican Navy in Pearl Habor and Singapore.

Besides, I think they'd mobilize the DC national guard (an MP unit) first.

That would make sense, but since we already have people screaming for the Marines or airborn units to be deployed on the broder...

What makes sense rarely enters politics.

Slartibartfast · Post by **Slartibartfast** » 2004-08-08 09:11pm

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
frigidmagi wrote:1st and 2nd MarDiv are moved South. Bloodbath ensures has Marines make lousy cops.

Mexico protest and sends troops up North.

Take a guess from there.
Since when does Mexico have an army? Besides, I think they'd mobilize the DC national guard (an MP unit) first.

HUH? Dude, a lot of countries have armies

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2004-08-08 09:15pm

I don't think the Mexican government would do that, at all.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-08-08 09:26pm

Slartibartfast wrote:
CaptainChewbacca wrote:
frigidmagi wrote:1st and 2nd MarDiv are moved South. Bloodbath ensures has Marines make lousy cops.

Mexico protest and sends troops up North.

Take a guess from there.
Since when does Mexico have an army? Besides, I think they'd mobilize the DC national guard (an MP unit) first.
HUH? Dude, a lot of countries have armies

Pfft, only big and important nations have armies. No one cares for the little ones, so they don't bother spending money on the things. Mexico instead has a battalion of traffic police and mopeds outfitted with .22 air rifles in the event of an invasion.

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2004-08-08 09:31pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
Pfft, only big and important nations have armies. No one cares for the little ones, so they don't bother spending money on the things. Mexico instead has a battalion of traffic police and mopeds outfitted with .22 air rifles in the event of an invasion.

You being sarcastic?

Hell, I've been at sea and done exercises with Mexican Knox frigates.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-08-08 09:54pm

Lonestar wrote:
Admiral Valdemar wrote:
Pfft, only big and important nations have armies. No one cares for the little ones, so they don't bother spending money on the things. Mexico instead has a battalion of traffic police and mopeds outfitted with .22 air rifles in the event of an invasion.
You being sarcastic?

Hell, I've been at sea and done exercises with Mexican Knox frigates.

Unless you're the People Liberation Army, that's not the Army.

And while his point was rather sarcastic, the fact remains that the American National Guard is probably a lot better equipped and better trained than the Mexican Army.

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2004-08-08 09:59pm

Probably so, but they do have an army, even if their main war plan is defending against the mysterious northern enemy who shall never be named as a country.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-08-08 10:09pm

Lonestar wrote:
Admiral Valdemar wrote:
Pfft, only big and important nations have armies. No one cares for the little ones, so they don't bother spending money on the things. Mexico instead has a battalion of traffic police and mopeds outfitted with .22 air rifles in the event of an invasion.
You being sarcastic?

Hell, I've been at sea and done exercises with Mexican Knox frigates.

No, I truly do believe Mexico uses traffic wardens as elite footsoldiers.

...

Yes, it was sarcasm. It was a subtle mocking of Chewie's remark about Mexico not having an army which is, obviously, not the case. They are, however, nothing of an armed force compared to the US of A's military.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2004-08-08 10:17pm

Sorry, my comment was supposed to have a ";)" attached, but I didn't edit it. I know Mexico has an army, but we seem to have wandered off-topic.

Ma Deuce · Post by **Ma Deuce** » 2004-08-08 10:47pm

Lonestar wrote:Hell, I've been at sea and done exercises with Mexican Knox frigates.

Doesn't the Mexican Navy also use WWII-vinatge Fletcher Class destroyers?

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2004-08-09 01:23am

Ma Deuce wrote:
Lonestar wrote:Hell, I've been at sea and done exercises with Mexican Knox frigates.
Doesn't the Mexican Navy also use WWII-vinatge Fletcher Class destroyers?

I think they have one. But it's been heavily modified and modernized (even has a helopad for Chrissakes)

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-08-09 01:31am

Lonestar wrote:Probably so, but they do have an army, even if their main war plan is defending against the mysterious northern enemy who shall never be named as a country.

Actually, their war plans are probably more like make war on those damn anti-narco forces or crush State X's revolution of the month.

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2004-08-09 01:33am

Stormbringer wrote:
Actually, their war plans are probably more like make war on those damn anti-narco forces or crush State X's revolution of the month.

Personally, I would bet on my statement. But that's just me.

Tsyroc · Post by **Tsyroc** » 2004-08-09 02:30am

Lonestar wrote: Hell, I've been at sea and done exercises with Mexican Knox frigates.

Knox class Frigates were POS when we were still using them I'd hate to see what Mexico has done with them.

Sarevok · Post by **Sarevok** » 2004-08-09 02:32am

The US may actualy allow the illegal immigrants to enter. Stopping 100000 people is impossible. So the only option is to shoot them if they try to cross the border or allow them to enter. 100000 dead mexicans a week is going to create enormous international outcry. So I think the US would allown the illegal immigrants to enter.

Spyder · Post by **Spyder** » 2004-08-09 07:13am

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
Since when does Mexico have an army?

Even we have an army.

Kazuaki Shimazaki · Post by **Kazuaki Shimazaki** » 2004-08-09 07:24am

Spyder wrote:
CaptainChewbacca wrote:
Since when does Mexico have an army?
Even we have an army.

What's the point of the New Zealand Army? If the US seriously invades it for some reason, it might as well just surrender. Nobody else really has a real chance of invading it - not that many countries have any real amphibious projection to begin with, and New Zealand is pretty far from all of them, thus greatly reducing their ability.

Sure, I guess they can be used for disaster relief and the like, but I'm sure there are more dedicated services that would be more efficient than the Army.

If they take the Army's funds, and feed it into the Air Force and Navy, perhaps it'd give them somewhat better value for money.

Spyder · Post by **Spyder** » 2004-08-09 08:03am

Kazuaki Shimazaki wrote:
Spyder wrote:
CaptainChewbacca wrote:
Since when does Mexico have an army?
Even we have an army.
What's the point of the New Zealand Army? If the US seriously invades it for some reason, it might as well just surrender.

Very well, we humbly accept the surrender of the former United States of America. We have established multiple camps both in the New Zealand mainland and in the newly aquired territory where I'm sure former US citizens and military will be made to feel right at home. Now please rise for the new national anthem of the United States of New Zealand.

Nobody else really has a real chance of invading it - not that many countries have any real amphibious projection to begin with, and New Zealand is pretty far from all of them, thus greatly reducing their ability.

Sure, I guess they can be used for disaster relief and the like, but I'm sure there are more dedicated services that would be more efficient than the Army.

If they take the Army's funds, and feed it into the Air Force and Navy, perhaps it'd give them somewhat better value for money.

Peacekeeping and multinational task forces. East Timor is a good example of the kind of thing they get up to. We'd probably also end up lending Australia a hand of Indonesia ever went completely to shit on them.

The problem with feeding money into the Air Force and Navy is that we'd need to feed many times more money into them for them to actually become useful then we would for soldiers that we can drop off in trouble spots to keep the peace.

The only foreign invasion we prepare ourselves for are angry pacific islanders that come to shore and start waving broken liquer bottles at us. For that we've invested in several large hoses.

Pablo Sanchez · Post by **Pablo Sanchez** » 2004-08-09 10:53am

Lonestar wrote:I don't think the Mexican government would do that, at all.

I agree. The American government wouldn't be able to stop the flow of refugees without abrogating every principle it claims to uphold, but it would retaliate against the Mexican government one way or another. Also, exporting the number of refugees in the scenario would play absolute havoc with an already depressed economy.

Glocksman · Post by **Glocksman** » 2004-08-09 11:11am

Pablo Sanchez wrote:
Lonestar wrote:I don't think the Mexican government would do that, at all.
I agree. The American government wouldn't be able to stop the flow of refugees without abrogating every principle it claims to uphold, but it would retaliate against the Mexican government one way or another. Also, exporting the number of refugees in the scenario would play absolute havoc with an already depressed economy.

The US government would be abrogating its soverignity if it permitted hundreds of thousands of aliens to enter illegally.

If nothing else, an Israeli style 'wall' would work. It'd be expensive, but worth it in the long run.

After the refugees start playing havoc with the US economy and hundreds of thousands start losing their jobs, you might see irresistable pressure for the US to do whatever it takes to shut off the flow of migrants. One option would be for the US to use its armed forces to force Mexico to let the deported aliens back home.

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2004-08-09 02:15pm

Pablo Sanchez wrote:
I agree. The American government wouldn't be able to stop the flow of refugees without abrogating every principle it claims to uphold, but it would retaliate against the Mexican government one way or another. Also, exporting the number of refugees in the scenario would play absolute havoc with an already depressed economy.

I mean, the American government would shell out $40 billion in order to prevent the crisis from happening, like we did before.

Peregrin Toker · Post by **Peregrin Toker** » 2004-08-10 10:55am

Are you sure that said "illegal immigrants" technically aren't legitimate refugees? I mean, they've been expelled from their country by their respective government. IIRC the Geneva Convention (or some similar document) requires the US gov't to receive them.