Muslims and thermonuclear fire *fap fap fap*

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MKSheppard
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Post by MKSheppard »

Elfdart wrote:The U.S. was brought into The Great War by a stupid, ignorant, vain and paranoid little man named Woodrow Wilson
Actually you're a stupid fuckwit.

Remember THIS.

It was what Wilson ran in 1916. "He Kept Us Out of War." Hardly the
campaign slogan of a warmongerer.

What made us go to war was THAT
Stupid Fucking idiot named Zimmerman wrote: Most Secret

For Your Excellency's personal information and to be handed on to the Imperial Minister in Mexico

We intend to begin unrestricted submarine warfare on the first of February. We shall endeavor in spite of this to keep the United States neutral. In the event of this not succeeding, we make Mexico a proposal of an alliance on the following basis: Make war together, make peace together, generous financial support, and an understanding on our part that Mexico is to reconquer the lost territory in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. The settlement detail is left to you.

You will inform the President [of Mexico] of the above most secretly as soon as the outbreak of war with the United States is certain and add the suggestion that he should, on his own initiative, invite Japan to immediate adherence and at the same time mediate between Japan and ourselves.

Please call the President's attention to the fact that the unrestricted employment of our submarines now offers the prospect of compelling England to make peace within a few months. Acknowledge receipt.

Zimmerman
You don't try and make alliance with mexico to "reconquer" the US
southwest, fuckwit, and expect the US to kick your fucking ass. :roll:
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

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Elfdart
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Post by Elfdart »

Axis Kast wrote:
Believe me, I wouldn't spend any more time trying to appeal to your conscience than I would the feeling in Christopher Reeves' balls. Did you fall off a galloping horse, too -or are you just an asshole?
Concession accepted. Calling me a heartless bastard doesn’t refute any of Iran’s activities whatsoever.
Yeah, keep telling yourself that. :roll: Iran's activities so far don't merit a war, no matter how much the thought of such a war stirs your loins.
Axis Kast wrote:
As with any good quarterback, the backpedaling is just three or five steps before the pass that hits the receiver in stride for the big gain, the winning score, victory, shaving cream and beer commercial endorsements, etc...

You might want to look up Operation Polar Bear and why a number of American WW1 monuments include the names of soldiers killed in 1919. SHHHHHHH! Nobody tell Kast or Rogue 9 the answer
What the fuck does our response to a regime-change in the Soviet Union have to do with our responsibility for it in the first place? You’re going right from A to C.


Intervening in the Civil War allowed the Bolsheviks to rally not only those opposed to the czar, but also brought those who were uncommitted into the Red faction.
Axis Kast wrote:
Wilson's support for Britain and France helped prolong the war and tilted the scales very heavily in their favor. If Germany had won, or if France and Britain had only marginally beaten Germany, or if the whole thing had simply ground to halt like the Thirty Years War, Versailles would not have been so punitive. If Wilson hadn't gone along with the postwar blockade of Germany that starved hundreds of thousands of people to death. If, if, if...

Hmmmmm. No Versailles Treaty -at least not like the one that gave Hitler so much material. No mass starvation or other humiliations. No Ratsrepublik. No Freikorps (for those who don't know, they were the German version of Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, complete with their own "stab-in-the-back" delusions). Hitler would have gone back to his watercolors or bricklaying, Himmler would have stayed on his chicken farm and Goering would have had to make do with porking and embezzling from Swedish starlets. All in all, things would have been better.
Wilson made the decision to intervene against an aggressor with clear designs on neighboring countries.

Not to mention that the final, end-of-the-war push probably would have been carried by Britain, France, and the other Allies alone – even without American help. Which means that punitive damage to Germany would have still been severe – and probably more so than it was, considering that, as Rogue pointed out, Wilson was, if anything, a moderating force.
Fleming's book disproves that little myth. Wilson's men at Versailles were every bit as demented as the other Allied leaders.
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Post by Darth Wong »

Axis Kast wrote:What bullshit.
I find it ironic that you use this rebuttal when you attack anyone else who does it to you.
<snip yet another repetition of your worldview>
Yes, I got it the first time. My point stands; your claims of the terrifying urgency of the situation are belied by your actions. Are you lobbying for this? Are you trying to raise funds? Are you running around trying to raise awareness of the horrible danger in venues other than this webboard where nobody listens to you? If you are to be believed, your very life is in horrible imminent danger, after all.
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Post by The Dark »

Axis Kast wrote:We can’t leave well enough alone. Period. The Second World War definitively proved that the United States cannot successfully effect “Splendid Isolation” any longer. Any attempt to withdraw from the world stage and “regress” to a strictly domestic focus would be absolutely disingenuous.
We did not do that before the Second World War. We actively opposed Japanese expansionism through economic and political means, were engaged in colonialism in the Philippines and Cuba, maintained the Monroe Doctrine placing the entirety of Latin America in our sphere of influence, and meddled nearly as much as we do now, simply more subtly.
Put simply, this country’s “internal” affairs are so vastly important to the outside world economically, politically, and socially that no matter to what extent any politician here promise to “put our house in order” and nothing more, they’d be lying through their teeth. In a very real sense, we don’t really have “internal” affairs at all anymore. After all, what does it say that a huge part of John Kerry’s platform for election in November is a promise to “set things right” with our traditional European allies, or that the European Union awaits election day in this country with nearly the same eagerness as voters on this side of the Atlantic?
All you have shown is that internal affairs have an external effect; that is not the same as saying there are not internal affairs. The implementation of different tax rates has an external effect, by altering supply and demand for goods, yet that is solely an internal affair. The main reason the EU eagerly awaits this election is the hope of America removing an imperialist, Constitution-dodging, dictatorial elected leader from office.
A withdrawal from the Middle East is impossible. “Blowback” is going to continue whether or not we pull out of Saudi Arabia, and whether or not we pull out of Iraq. Insurgents there have already pledged to bring the fight to the United States even if we were to leave tomorrow. We would still have reason to intervene frequently – be it diplomatically or militarily – even if oil, God forbid, suddenly disappeared. And we will have to continue doing so despite the onset of alternative fuels. The Middle East won’t stop being a powder keg once overt exploitation of its resources ends. Bitterness and anger doesn’t subside because one particular match is over, or because one team graciously leaves the field after a given bout.
Actually, if you anticipate it, it's not blowback. Blowback's the term for unexpected consequences. Nitpicking aside, that's possible. It's definite if we continue ignoring the desires of other nations and acting like the British Empire in 19th-century India. They had a colony ruled by a corporation (as our foreign policy is largely driven by corporate needs), didn't care for the natives (as the Sepoy Rebellion showed), and were intolerant of ideas of reform, choosing instead to prop up a corrupt system (as we did in Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Cuba...the list could go on for pages). We would be far better off leaving them mostly alone, even with oil, and looking elsewhere, such as Russia and Canada.
Bush may have oversimplified when he condemned men like Osama bin Laden as one-dimensionally evil, but he wasn’t far off the mark, either. Even under a logical magnifying glass, none of bin Laden’s rhetoric is particularly helpful in determining the source of his anger. His blaming the United States for “occupying” Saudi Arabia after 1991 doesn’t make any sense at all when one considers the alternative: another invasion by Iraq.
Actually, if you read his rhetoric and its timing carefully, his anger was over the occupation of Muslim holy sites. And a further invasion by Iraq was improbable, given that the American troops were using mostly Saudi tanks in Gulf War I. The alternative to American imperialistic occupation would have been allowing a self-determining nation to maintain complete sovreignty and use its highly technological military forces (second only to Israel) to maintain its defense against an impoverished regime with obsolete weapons and a ramshackle economy, which also happened to be embargoed by the United Nations.
Rather, Osama bin Laden is a product of a failed series of societies whose corrupt leadership and lengthy history of exploitation by all sides
Would that include the society that trained him, the United States?
have generated legions of young men (and women) who feel that their only means of impact is violence – and who are currently channeling their anger at the most obvious target. That won’t end until the societies themselves change. And thus we have the option of invasion.
The society that needs to change is our own. We trained the terrorists, we created the monster we fight today, and we are continuing to create more monsters as we demolish lives and ways of living in order to fight today's villain.
AniThyng wrote:as a non-muslim living in a muslim city (Kuala Lumpur) you westerners with your talk of nuking the entire muslim world to eliminate radical islam are beginning to terrify me more then the terrorists.
Right now, as a Westerner, the people around me scare me more than most Muslims. The sheer hatred and lack of knowledge is astounding. The truly sad thing is that Bush's declaration of the "axis of evil" occurred right as North Korea and Iran were both trying to open lines of diplomatic communication with the United States, thus fucking over any chance of moderation for the next generation or so.
Stanley Hauerwas wrote:[W]hy is it that no one is angry at the inequality of income in this country? I mean, the inequality of income is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Why isn’t that ever an issue of politics? Because you don’t live in a democracy. You live in a plutocracy. Money rules.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Making an obvious observation regarding the proper conduct of a strategy which should never have been implemented in the first place does not lend it credibility, assmunch.
You acknowledged all of my points, idiot. You acknowledged that peace, order, stability, and prosperity would follow a well-coordinated occupation – meaning that the chaos and hopelessness that the culture of emasculation into which organizations such as al-Qaeda tap would be significantly diminished in Iraq. All this on top of the fact that the sooner we bring the various independent militias under control and establish a sufficiently large and well-educated core of Iraqi experts when it comes to rebuilding, the sooner we’ll be able to remove the most overt aspects of our influence in the area.
That being the view of things from Bizarro-world, I take it?
So now this wasn’t your argument?
Iran's activities so far don't merit a war, no matter how much the thought of such a war stirs your loins.
So I take it that a country that gives active support – or at the very least maintains active indifference – to al-Qaeda is, in your book, a-okay?
Intervening in the Civil War allowed the Bolsheviks to rally not only those opposed to the czar, but also brought those who were uncommitted into the Red faction.
What drivel. The Bolsheviks didn’t win because an intervention spurred enthusiasm for their cause. They won because the Whites were a disparate bunch who more often than not couldn’t escape an association with a regime that had been a disastrous failure in all of then-recent memory.
Fleming's book disproves that little myth. Wilson's men at Versailles were every bit as demented as the other Allied leaders.
I sure hope you’ve got quotations on hand.
Yes, I got it the first time. My point stands; your claims of the terrifying urgency of the situation are belied by your actions. Are you lobbying for this? Are you trying to raise funds? Are you running around trying to raise awareness of the horrible danger in venues other than this webboard where nobody listens to you? If you are to be believed, your very life is in horrible imminent danger, after all.
No, it doesn’t, because you have no point at all. Accusing me of not being a man of action doesn’t invalidate my argument, Wong. All it does is make you look desperate.
We did not do that before the Second World War. We actively opposed Japanese expansionism through economic and political means, were engaged in colonialism in the Philippines and Cuba, maintained the Monroe Doctrine placing the entirety of Latin America in our sphere of influence, and meddled nearly as much as we do now, simply more subtly.
Our standing in the world today is vastly different than it was before 1945. Certainly than it was before 1900.
All you have shown is that internal affairs have an external effect; that is not the same as saying there are not internal affairs. The implementation of different tax rates has an external effect, by altering supply and demand for goods, yet that is solely an internal affair. The main reason the EU eagerly awaits this election is the hope of America removing an imperialist, Constitution-dodging, dictatorial elected leader from office.
There is no country whose internal affairs have greater external effect than ours. Therein lies the problem. Everything we do creates massive reverberations that reach down to even the lowest of the low in the international hierarchy.
Actually, if you anticipate it, it's not blowback. Blowback's the term for unexpected consequences. Nitpicking aside, that's possible. It's definite if we continue ignoring the desires of other nations and acting like the British Empire in 19th-century India. They had a colony ruled by a corporation (as our foreign policy is largely driven by corporate needs), didn't care for the natives (as the Sepoy Rebellion showed), and were intolerant of ideas of reform, choosing instead to prop up a corrupt system (as we did in Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Cuba...the list could go on for pages). We would be far better off leaving them mostly alone, even with oil, and looking elsewhere, such as Russia and Canada.
Except that corporations are fulfilling contracts in Iraq, they are not managing it. Except that we’re putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to reform, have forced reform in Iraq, and are doing the same in Pakistan. Your attempts to characterize our efforts in Iraq as Snidley Whiplash Plays Imperialism ™ are sadly off the mark.

Not to mention that we are already looking at Canada for oil.
Actually, if you read his rhetoric and its timing carefully, his anger was over the occupation of Muslim holy sites. And a further invasion by Iraq was improbable, given that the American troops were using mostly Saudi tanks in Gulf War I. The alternative to American imperialistic occupation would have been allowing a self-determining nation to maintain complete sovreignty and use its highly technological military forces (second only to Israel) to maintain its defense against an impoverished regime with obsolete weapons and a ramshackle economy, which also happened to be embargoed by the United Nations.
Without our troops in place to train and provide services for the Saudi armed forces, they wouldn’t be capable enough to tackle a playground. Like all Arab armies, they suffer from horrendous mismanagement and a chronic lack of mid-level non-coms.
Would that include the society that trained him, the United States?
The United States provided training to Osama in order that he could fight the Soviets. They did not indoctrinate him. In fact, Washington understood rendering assistance to the rebels in Afghanistan as a potentially immoral favor. Carter and his closest advisers wrung hands for weeks over whether or not it was “right” to give the Afghanis rifles when they would be squaring off with Russian commandos and armored vehicles.
The society that needs to change is our own. We trained the terrorists, we created the monster we fight today, and we are continuing to create more monsters as we demolish lives and ways of living in order to fight today's villain.
Nothing will change by our standing back. The scars are there. The Arab world is not the dynamic place everybody here makes it out to be. Despite Deegan’s wanking about Iranian students, they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Change will either be forced upon them, or the status quo will remain.
Right now, as a Westerner, the people around me scare me more than most Muslims. The sheer hatred and lack of knowledge is astounding. The truly sad thing is that Bush's declaration of the "axis of evil" occurred right as North Korea and Iran were both trying to open lines of diplomatic communication with the United States, thus fucking over any chance of moderation for the next generation or so.
You honestly believe North Korea or Iran are the aggrieved parties in any of these disputes? Bill Clinton extended the olive branch to North Korea – and Kim took us for a ride all the way to the bank. Iran still tacitly supports international terrorism – including al-Qaeda.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Axis Kast wrote:
Making an obvious observation regarding the proper conduct of a strategy which should never have been implemented in the first place does not lend it credibility, assmunch.
You acknowledged all of my points, idiot. You acknowledged that peace, order, stability, and prosperity would follow a well-coordinated occupation – meaning that the chaos and hopelessness that the culture of emasculation into which organizations such as al-Qaeda tap would be significantly diminished in Iraq. All this on top of the fact that the sooner we bring the various independent militias under control and establish a sufficiently large and well-educated core of Iraqi experts when it comes to rebuilding, the sooner we’ll be able to remove the most overt aspects of our influence in the area.
Wrong, asshole. I said that the U.S. failed it's primary responsibility undertaking the occupation. That does not translate into agreeing that invading Iraq in the first place was proper policy to anybody except you, Mr. Delusional Dishonest Fuck. Exactly what part of "Iraq had zero relevance to the War on Terror" was so difficult for you to grasp?
That being the view of things from Bizarro-world, I take it?
So now this wasn’t your argument?
It certainly was not, O Lying Sack of Shit. I reiterate:

Ideas cannot be defeated with armies or bombs. Knocking over every unfriendly government isn't a realistic proposition, and invading countries we suspect of fostering terrorism is a non-starter. The United States hasn't the manpower to kill, conquer, and subdue all of our enemies and they know it. Interationalising the present occupation and reconstruction effort in Iraq will contribute considerably toward defusing the present crisis —even though that means giving up primary control of the effort there. Iran can be handled by a combination of sanctions and, where and when appropriate, engagement. The mullahs' ironclad control over the country's politics cannot last forever, and strains have already shown between them and the population at large. Furthermore, Iran needs to rebuild its economy after twelve years of revolution and war and two decades of sanctions on top of that, and that need can be exploited. Terrorism requires specialised warfare to blunt it; meaning a combination of special ops, intel, and counterinsurgency strategy, and not the resort to wholesale military adventurism. Inseperable from any effort to blunt Islamic fanatacism is putting the Israeli/Palestinian peace process back on track, even if it means sitting on the Israelis to do so. The one demonstrable fact about fanatacism is that it cannot be sustained over the long-term unless it is fed by injudicious actions on our part which "proves" the propaganda of people like Osama binLaden.

In short, we're in for another Cold War and probably a long one. But like the last one, a combination of diplomacy, appropriate pressure, backchannel dealing when necessary, and the intelligent and judicious application of military and espionage assets offers a way to get through this crisis with the least loss of life on either side as well as the lesser cost to the treasury and our international standing. And we are going to need allies to successfully combat terrorism, which is why this cowboy crap we've been indulging is also doing more to damage our efforts than anything any enemy is responsible for.


I grow tired of your strawmen.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
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People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
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Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
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MKSheppard
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Post by MKSheppard »

Getting thsi back on track.....

Islam: Religion or political ideology? by Spengler

The philosopher Immanuel Kant claimed that Judaism was not a religion, but a mere body of
laws. Secular Jews would agree with him. Some secularized Muslims say the same about
Islam, for example Ali Sina of www.faithfreedom.org. Sina writes: "Islam is not a religion. Considering
Islam a religion is a foolish mistake that could cost millions of lives. Islam is a political movement
set to conquer the world. It is the Borg of the non-fictional world. Islam has one goal and one goal
alone: to assimilate or to destroy."

In an emotionally charged atmosphere, precise thinking is needed. Kant was wrong, but wrong
in a way that helps clarify the problem. Ali Sina and other Muslim secularizers are just as wrong.
I shall argue that Islam is both a religion and a political ideology. Religion is what makes Islamic
political ideology so dangerous.

"Judaism is really not a religion at all," wrote Kant in 1793 (in Religion Within the Limits of
Reason Alone), "but merely a union of a number of people who formed themselves into a
commonwealth under purely political laws, and not into a church." Specifically, "since no
religion can be conceived of which involves no belief in a future life, Judaism, which, when
taken in its purity is seen to lack this belief, is not a religious faith at all".

In a certain sense Kant is right. Although Rabbinical Judaism speaks of a "world to come", it
lacks the central status to which Christianity assigns the afterlife. Judaism seeks to transport
eternity into a sacred ordering of everyday life and deprecates the unknown future past the
grave. The 18th-century Hassid Levy Isaac of Berdichev wrote of a dream in which he
ascended to heaven and saw the authors of the Jewish Talmud surrounded by books in a
library. Levy Isaac complained that this was no different from what he saw on Earth. "You are
wrong, Levi Isaac," replied an angelic voice; "the sages are not Heaven; rather, Heaven is in
the sages."

From a Christian standpoint, that may not seem like much of a religion at all. Judaism and
Christianity, though, set out to address the same problem - the inevitability of death - in different
ways that reflect the different circumstances of Gentile and Jew. Christianity offers the Gentile
tribes a life beyond their ineluctable extinction on Earth. The afterlife stands at the center of its
promise. As I wrote on a prior occasion (Does Islam have a prayer? May 18):
The Jew is confident in his portion of immortality because he believes the Jews to be an
eternal people. Because the Sabbath is a foretaste of the world to come, the observant Jew
revels in devotion from Friday evening prayers at synagogue until the concluding ceremony at
the next day's dusk. Sin is death; confident in their eternal life, the Jews do not sense the
waiting sting of death, that is, what the Christians call original sin, as I have argued elsewhere.

The redemption of the Christians lies in the future, when Jesus shall return and establish His
Kingdom on Earth; of this blessed event the individual Christian can obtain no more than the
briefest glance in the form of the Lord's Supper. Jewish redemption consists simply of being
Jewish, and the Jew already spends the seventh day in the World to Come.
Again, as I wrote earlier (Why Europe chooses extinction, April 9, 2003):
All religion, Franz Rosenzweig argued, responds to man's anxiety in the face of death
(against which philosophy is like a child stuffing his fingers in his ears and shouting, "I can't
hear you!"). The pagans of old faced death with the confidence that their race would continue.
But tribes and nations anticipate their own extinction just as individuals anticipate their own
death, he added: "The love of the nations for their own nationhood is sweet and pregnant with
the presentiment of death." Each nation, he wrote, knows that some day other peoples will
occupy their lands, and their language and culture will be interred in dusty books.

The early Christian Church encountered a great extinction of peoples and their cultures through
the rise and fall of the Alexandrine and Roman empires ... As nations faced extinction,
individuals within these nations came face to face with their own mortality. Christianity offered
an answer: the Church called individuals out of the nations and offered them salvation in the
form of a life beyond the grave. The Gentiles (as the Church called them) embraced original
sin, which to them simply meant the sin of having been born Gentile, that is, to a culture
doomed to extinction. (The Jews, who think of themselves as an eternal people, were having
none of it.)
Kant mistook the Jews' lack of interest in the afterlife for absence of religious feeling. But just
what do we mean by "religion"? Communism can be thought of as a religion (Andre Gide,
Arthur Koestler, Ignazio Silone and other ex-communists called it "the God that failed"). In
communism, History takes the place of God; dialectical materialism assumes the role of
theology, and so forth. But "History" (like Destiny) is no god; a "god" who is everywhere present
but nowhere to be addressed in person really is no god at all. Critics of Islam argue that Allah is
no more a personal god than "History" in Marxist ideology, but simply a personification of
Destiny (see Oil on the flames of civilizational war, December 2, 2003). That is beside the
point. We require a working definition of religion before making further sense of the issue.

Religion offers the individual a way of transcending death by separating the holy, or eternal,
from the profane, or transitory. It presupposes not merely an eternal plane of being exalted
above mere creation, but also some means by which mortals may participate in this higher
being through revelation and grace, and some procedure by which they may obtain grace, that
is, ritual and prayer.

In Islam, this procedure is jihad.

Conventional theology stumbles by restricting the question to the biological death of the
individual. Rosenzweig opened a more fecund line of inquiry by considering the death of a
people and its culture, as I noted above. Sin is death; the inevitable death of each people and
the extinction of its culture is "original sin", to which Christianity responds by calling the Gentiles
out of their nations into a "New Israel". In its European variant, of course, Christianity permits
the Gentile tribes to bring a great deal of their baggage with them into the "New Israel". That, I
have argued in the past, has been its tragedy (No one expects the Spanish Inquisition, June
22).

The old Israel, by contrast, needs only to make sacred its own presumably eternal life. Kant
and the secular Jews are wrong: Judaism is a religion parallel to Christianity. The sine qua non
of religion is to enable the individual to transcend death or, to be more precise, the inevitable
death of each traditional culture. Christianity liquidates traditional cultures into the ecclesia, the
assembly of the New Israel called out from among the nations. American Christians left the
baggage of their Gentile background on the dock before taking ship to the New World, and for
that reason feel the greatest affinity to the Old Israel (Mahathir is right: Jews do rule the world,
October 28, 2003).

Islam, by contrast, seeks to prolong the life of traditional society indefinitely, by extending it
through conquest. I refer here to mainstream Islam, ignoring marginal currents such as Sufism.
We find in the practice of mainstream Islam hoary roots in traditional society, in strange
juxtaposition with the most aggressive sort of universalism. For traditional Muslims, religion
cannot be separated from the most trivial requirements of everyday life, I showed in the case
of the teachings of Iraq's Ayatollah al-Sistani (Why Islam baffles America, April 16).

Traditional society is the locus of the vast majority of the world's billion Muslims. Global
communications and the social freedoms embodied in the US system threaten the existence
of these societies. For most of the world's Muslims the United States is a menace, not a
promise, threatening to dissolve the ties that bind child to parent, wife to husband, tribesman to
chief, subject to ruler. Traditional society will not go mutely to its doom and join the Great
Extinction of the Peoples, blotting out ancient cultures and destroying the memory of today's
generation. It will not permit the hundreds of millions of Muslims on the threshold of adulthood
to pass into the world of sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll, and lose the memory of their ancestors.
On the contrary: it will turn the tables upon the corrupt metropolis, and in turn launch a war of
conquest against it.

Jihad, that is, conquest and forcible conversion of the Dar-al-Harb (the realm of war), is the
quintessence of Islamic prayer, I wrote some time ago (Does Islam have a prayer?, May 18):
Islam acknowledges no ethnicity (whether or not one believes that it favors Arabs). The
Muslim submits - to what particular people? Not the old Israel of the Jews, nor the "New Israel"
of the Christians, but to precisely what? Pagans fight for their own group's survival and care not
at all whom their neighbor worships. A universalized paganism is a contradiction in terms; it
could only exist by externalizing the defensive posture of the pagan, that is, as a conquering
movement that marches across the world crushing out the pagan practices of the nations and
subjugating them to a single discipline. If the individual Muslim does not submit to traditional
society as it surrounds him in its present circumstances, he submits to the expansionist
movement.
Ali Sina is wrong: Islamic expansionism arises from religious motives, that is, a holy rage
against the encroachment of death upon traditional society. In the form of Islam, the West
confronts a challenge quite different from communism.

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To this, we get the Reply
I have read the article [Islam: Religion or political ideology?, Aug 10] by Spengler, a fictitious character, whose articles show nothing but utter ignorance. I would like to know who this guy is, if he is indeed real. And if he is, what is his/her real name. It is easy to hide behind a pen name and spit garbage. I am a Muslim, like it or not. Your garbage is nothing new. This filth you call journalism has begun a long time ago and the Crusades are there to witness the barbarity of those whose revulsion of this deen [Muslim way of life] is plain to be seen. You can go around and claim whatever you want; one day you will have the pleasure of answering to the garbage you are writing. Your hate of this deen has obviously made you blind to the truth, but some people deserve to die ignorant and you are one of them. The only people you quote as Muslims in your article are as far from Islam as one can be. Ali Sina should find a different name. He is not worthy of the name Ali, but he uses it so that he misleads people into thinking that he is a Muslim with a different point of view ... Islam is here to stay. It will be the last man standing, not because of your garbage arguments and falsities, but because it is the truth, and Allah is sufficient as a witness for the truth. Believe or don't believe, one day we will all find out and on that day you shall ponder what you have been saying in this flimsy life. For now act like there is no tomorrow, but tomorrow is sooner than you think!

Ali Atlagh (Aug 16, '04)
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Post by Darth Wong »

:lol: One of the hate mails from Christians on my Creationism webpage looks almost exactly like that little screed you quoted at the end of your post, Shep.

In any case, how does any of that long-winded quoting substantiate the belief that you can use force to eliminate the problem? Actually exterminating every last Muslim is an utterly ridiculous non-option, so what other realistic option is there? Invading the region and spreading the magic anti-Islamic pixie dust of democracy among them in the hope that it will create a "domino effect" and wipe out Islam? Do you really think that will work?

I suspect that there's a simple reason why Muslims are so fanatical; almost nobody goes to university in the parts of the world (Africa, the Middle East) where Islam thrives. There is an inverse correlation between religious fanaticism and education levels, both on a societal level and an individual level. Ignorance breeds fanaticism.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Isn't this the point where somebody brings up the "Arab world gave us the beginnings of civilisation etc." fallacy in regards to their ignorance?
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Post by Ma Deuce »

Darth Wong wrote:I suspect that there's a simple reason why Muslims are so fanatical; almost nobody goes to university in the parts of the world (Africa, the Middle East) where Islam thrives. There is an inverse correlation between religious fanaticism and education levels, both on a societal level and an individual level. Ignorance breeds fanaticism.
And the ones that do go to university tend to leave for better opportunities in the Western world. I read an article in Time a few weeks ago about how many of the students of Baghdad University are high-tailing out of Iraq as soon as they can after graduation...
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Post by PainRack »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:Isn't this the point where somebody brings up the "Arab world gave us the beginnings of civilisation etc." fallacy in regards to their ignorance?
No. Cause the reverse is equally true. Societies where fundamentalist islam is thriving, are also fertile grounds for fundamentalist christian movements. Note that the greatest regions of growth in fundamentalist Islam, Middle East and Africia, also happens to be two of the largest areas of growth in fundamentalist christanity movements.
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Post by Rogue 9 »

Fleming's book disproves that little myth. Wilson's men at Versailles were every bit as demented as the other Allied leaders.
Ahem. The 14 Points. Eat it. Note the lack of any call for reparations and the call for economic and trade parity between all nations consenting to the peace, both things that Britain and France were in no mood to allow with regards to Germany at Versailles. Wilson talked them down as he could, and I am inclined to believe that matters in Germany would have been made far worse without his presence at the negotiations.
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Post by Rogue 9 »

By the by, Elfy Boy, since you have utterly failed to respond in any way to this:
Rogue 9 wrote:Okay, that deserved its own post. Now on with the rest of the idiocy...
Even before entering that war, FDR was openly supporting Chiang and Churchill.
Gee, I wonder why... :roll:
Besides, Uncle Sam had been spoiling for a fight with Japan ever since they bitchslapped the Russians.
Prove it, since the end of the war was negotiated by a U.S. President (Teddy Roosevelt), who won the Nobel Peace Prize for it.
Neutrality hasn't been tried and found wanting -it hasn't been tried at all!
The problem with this is? Neutrality in WW2 would have doomed the Jews, Poles, Gypsies, Catholics, and other people Hitler didn't like to the Holocaust. It would also have required ignoring the fact that the Japanese blew Pearl Harbor to shit in a preemptive strike stemming from imperialist ambitions rather than any casus belli given them on our part. In other words, Hawaii was attacked largely because it was there.
1) Some Muslims were every bit as fanatical over a hundred years ago. Yet there were no suicide bombings of Americans during the Chester A. Arthur administration. In fact, Muslim countries were historically friendly to us and among the first to recognize our independence.
From the halls of Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli... Ever hear of a little thing called the Barbary States? You know, the ones that declared war on the U.S. for refusing to pay protection money to keep their navy and privateers off of our trade?
2) If Bin Laden and his kind hate America for sexual license, women's rights and tolerance for minority religions, why aren't bombs going off in Stockholm, Amsterdam, Copenhagen and Oslo? These countries are MUCH more liberal about such issues than we are. Canadians are culturally more or less Americans -only decent and civilized *. And yet Bin Laden hasn't attacked Canada. What gives?
*cough*Madrid*cough*
U.S. occupation of Saudi Arabia
The U.S. is not currently and has never undertaken a military occupation of Saudi Arabia. Try again.
U.S. sanctions against Iraq and the subsequent invasion
And you would propose allowing Saddam to get away with occupying Kuwait? That would have been far more of a gaffe than Desert Storm; if all the little dictators out there learned that the big bad United States doesn't do shit when someone actually decides to test it, how many others would have undertaken similar actions with their neighbors?
U.S. support for Israel and the piecemeal ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians
I have to give you the first one in part (I hardly think that supporting Israel is intrinsically bad in and of itself, though bin Laden does and that's what counts for the terrorists), but not the second. If Israel wanted to cleanse the West Bank of Palestinians, they'd damn well get on with it. There'd be nothing the Palestinians could do to stop them.
To claim that they "hate our freedoms" is also bullshit. Does any other advanced country have shysters like John Ashcroft holding public office? Do pop stars in Britain and Italy get truckloads of death threats for opposing the war like the Dixie Chicks got?
Those occurred well after al Qaeda started its terror campaign against the United States. See the African embassy bombings in 1998, the USS Cole bombing, the casing of the targets that caused the terror alert level to rise (the fact that it was old intelligence is working against you here), and possibly the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993 (I'm not sure if that was AQ or not, though some of the bomber's relatives are in AQ).
Concession accepted.
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Post by Elfdart »

The idea of declaring victory and running home might have been a joke from George Aiken, but for Rogue 9, it's a way of life. Since reading the previous posts where I or others debunked your nonsense is too much effort, let me summarize in order:

1) Gee, you wonder why Roosevelt supported Chiang and Churchill. Why is irrelevant. He did -and years before WW2.

2) Uncle Sam saw Japan as its major threat in the Pacific since 1905. As early as the 1920s, the Navy had been wargaming possible battles against the Japanese. In 1932, the Navy even conducted a mock Pearl Harbor attack using early carriers. Who the fuck do YOU think they were preparing to fight? The Martians?

3) The fact that entering WW2 was necessary does not mean WW1 was, any more than putting out the fire in a burning house means playing with matches and gasoline (which caused the fire) was a good idea.

4) I already rebutted this, but please learn to count. The Sultan of Morroco recognized US independence in 1787 -more than a decade before the Barbary Wars.

5) Some cough you have there. So bad it's convinced you that Madrid was attacked because of Spain's religious freedom and egalitarianism with women and not, say... Spain's role in invading and occupying Iraq. Take some Nyquil and sleep on it before you repeat something so completely stupid.

6) Then what the fuck were our soldiers and airmen doing there for over a decade?

7) Dictators already know the score when it comes to who can invade and kill whom. If you buy or are given weapons from Uncle Sam or other Nato countries (Israel, El Salvador, Indonesia et al), you can do more or less what you want with only a nasty letter in your file if you get out of hand. If you get weapons from the Warsaw Pact, China or anywhere else, you are on thin ice and had better stay in your place. If you try to stick it to the interests of big business or client states, you will get slapped down. If not, you will get a VERY nasty letter in your file. If the US government was truly interested in some sort of principle that it's wrong to invade and annex another country, someone would have told Israel to get out of the West Bank and Gaza immediately. Of course we know that won't happen, don't we?

8 ) Israel's plan is to encroach on Palestinian territory bit by bit until they have ethnicly cleansed them. That's why the Apartheid Wall cuts into Palestinian territory. To make it difficult, if not impossible for those caught on the wrong side to go about their normal lives. This is done in the hopes that they'll give up and leave. The atrocities the Isaelis commit are meant to speed things up. If the Palestinians do nothing, they get Ku Kluxed; if they fight back, Israel has a convenient excuse to kill them and steal more of their land in the name of Lebensraum.

9) Let's get this straight: I point out that Al-Queda obviously isn't fighting against us because of our freedoms. You respond by saying Al Queda has been against the US for several years. What does one have to do with the other?

Your points are nonsense sprinkled with horseshit. The fact that you try to call yourself the victor then run like a pussy does not speak well for you.
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Post by Elfdart »

Rogue 9 wrote:
Fleming's book disproves that little myth. Wilson's men at Versailles were every bit as demented as the other Allied leaders.
Ahem. The 14 Points. Eat it. Note the lack of any call for reparations and the call for economic and trade parity between all nations consenting to the peace, both things that Britain and France were in no mood to allow with regards to Germany at Versailles. Wilson talked them down as he could, and I am inclined to believe that matters in Germany would have been made far worse without his presence at the negotiations.
From an interview with Fleming:

www.worldwar1.com/tgws/ei_tf.htm
1. Why did you conclude a reevaluation of
America's participation in the Great War was
needed today?

TF: I thought it was an important part of our
history. Even a crucial part. The Great War is the
fundamental event of the 20th Century, from which
so many things have flowed: World War II, the rise
of communism, fascism and Zionism, the
destabilization of the Middle East, the emergence of
America as a world power.

In the final chapter of my book, I explore what I call
America's "covenant with power" which developed
from our experience in World War I. We discovered
that power, not soaring ideals, was the critical factor in history. At the same time, idealism
remained important to Americans. How to balance these two factors has been the problem that
has troubled the United States ever since.

2. Would not a requirement for America to maintain "True Neutrality" have been the
abandonment of the "Freedom of the Seas" doctrine? Was this a feasible action for Wilson or
any other president?

TF: Under Wilson's presidency there was no such thing as true neutrality. He abandoned the
freedom of the seas doctrine, but in only one direction. He never seriously objected to the British
blockade of Germany. He only objected strenuously to the German blockade of Great Britain.
Millions of ethnic critics, notably the Irish-Americans and the German-Americans, spoke out
against this travesty. So did Democrats such as William Jennings Bryan and Republicans such as
Robert La Follette. Wilson's response was to accuse the ethnics of "pouring poison" into the veins
of our national life. He accepted Bryan's resignation as secretary of state -- and he pursued a
vendetta against Senator La Follette which resulted in silencing him for most of the war.

3. By the spring of 1917, with the German resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare, plus
the revelation of the Zimmerman telegram, could war have been avoided under these
circumstances?

TF: The Zimmerman telegram probably made war unavoidable for America. Although a
president who said he was "too proud to fight" after the Lusitania was sunk probably could have
finessed it. The same thing might be said for unrestricted submarine warfare. As Senator Henry
Cabot Lodge said in an acerbic letter to Theodore Roosevelt, if Wilson was right about going to
war in 1917, everything he had done for the previous two years was wrong. All this begs the
fundamental question. Wilson's sham neutrality had produced these 1917 decisions in Berlin. The
Germans regarded the United States as a de facto enemy -- with good reason. American industry
had become an adjunct of the British war effort. Of the five million pounds the British spent on
weaponry and supplies each day, two million pounds, 10 million dollars, was spent in the United
States. This comes to $986 million a week in 2002 dollars. British Munitions Ministry agents
operated in hundreds of U.S. factories, rode freight trains and supervised loading at U.S. docks to
prevent sabotage. If you were a German, what would you think of all this?

4. There was considerable disagreement with your observation that a true or full neutrality by
America would have led to a stalemate and presumably a settlement in 1915 or 1916. On the
western front at that time, the Germans were occupying significant chunks of France and
Flanders. The Germans would have had no incentive for surrendering the captured territory
and most of us believe it is highly unlikely that the Allies would have accepted a settlement in
place. The most likely scenario we see is continued fighting with the Germans gaining the upper
hand. Comment?

TF: There is ample room for disagreement on this contention. I don't make it with absolute
assurance. It is no more than a probability. The German peace offer of early 1917 did not make
any demand for retaining the occupied areas of Belgium or France. They also supported the
Pope's peace initiative of mid 1917, which called for a return to prewar borders. There was a
strong peace party in France, led by former premier Joseph Caillaux. In the Illusion of Victory, I
narrate how close they came to exiting the war in late 1917 after America had come in. Only in
1918, when Ludendorff and his fellow generals took over the German government, and
reasonable men such as Chancellor Bethman-Hollweg were discarded, did a Deutschland Uber
Alles policy emerge in the treaty of Brest Litovsk and a determination to retain Belgium and
portions of France. German war aims until this point were relatively modest -- basically a
recognition of Germany as the dominant power in Europe -- a status she occupies today.



President Wilson

5. Wasn't President Wilson's awful record on civil liberties fully consistent with the historical
pattern for America when we were involved in large wars? Lincoln and FDR seem open to
similar charges although the specifics are different.

TF: There is no doubt that Lincoln pursued a very tough (and little discussed) policy toward
dissenters in the Civil War. Lincoln confronted (and destroyed) real conspiracies, such as the plan
to set up a Northwest Confederacy in 1864. FDR was comparatively moderate in World War II,
having learned from Wilson's mistakes. Roosevelt contended with and caught some real spies in
the U.S. and fought a secret war in South America that has received little publicity. He put a few
extremists on trial.

In contrast, Wilson's record was uniquely awful. No other president tolerated creating the 250,000
vigilantes of the American Protective League, who operated as "Secret Service Divisions" and
were empowered to spy on their neighbors and friends -- tapping phone lines, putting recording
devices in bedrooms. Worst of all, Wilson's mostly amateur agents did not catch a single spy, and
they threw in jail thousands of fellow Americans who were only guilty of speaking their minds
about the war.

6. There were lots of questions as to what President Wilson was thinking when he asked
Congress to declare war? For instance, did he have reports from independent observers (e.g.
US military attaches) on the battlefield situation and did he anticipate the nation would
eventually be mobilizing 4.7 million men and the entire economy? Did the President grossly
underestimate the national sacrifice required?

TF: The answer to the latter end of this question is yes. Wilson underestimated the political and
military realities of the war to an almost incredible degree. He assumed the war was as good as
won. There is no evidence of reports from military attaches or other observers. Wilson seems to
have relied for information on Colonel House, his unofficial representative abroad, and
newspaper reports. The British and French propaganda machines strove mightily to give the
impression that they were winning. American newsmen reporting from the German side of the
lines complained their dispatches were suppressed or mutilated by British censors. Thanks to
severing Germany's Atlantic cables, the British controlled almost all communication between
Europe and America.

Not until month after America declared war did the British and French send military missions to
Washington, who told the truth: The Germans were winning. As one French general put it, "We
want men men men!" Wilson was also strongly influenced by a message from the American
ambassador to England, Thomas Nelson Page, a blatant anglophile, that Great Britain would be
bankrupt within two weeks, if the U.S. did not enter the war and provide her with funds. Also in
the picture were cables from the U.S. embassy in Paris, warning that French morale was
cracking. I deal at length with Wilson's mindset, which was shared by everyone in his cabinet and
Democratic leaders in Congress, in the early chapters of The Illusion of Victory.



The AEF Begins Arriving in France

7. What were Wilson's greatest accomplishments as a war leader, commander in chief and
peace negotiator?

TF: Wilson's greatest accomplishment as commander in chief was the feat of creating a huge
army and shipping over 2 million men to France in time to win the war. Next, thanks to his
superb skills as an orator, he gave the war a patina of idealism -- a struggle to make the world
safe for democracy. Most Americans accepted this nostrum, which was concocted by the British,
who ruled an empire of 440,000,000 people in which perhaps five percent had a vote. The truth
was the war made the world safe for British and French imperialism. Wilson's ability to tap the
latent idealism in every American's soul was crucial to a successful war effort.

As a peace negotiator, Wilson was an egregious failure, both in Europe and America. He
abandoned his "Fourteen Points" for a peace of reconciliation (on the basis of which Germany
had agreed to an armistice) and joined the Europeans in forcing Germany to sign a vengeful
peace treaty which sowed the seeds of World War II. Back in Washington, his refusal to
compromise on his design of the League of Nations destroyed all hope of winning Senate
ratification of the Versailles treaty. Later, Senator Gilbert Hitchcock, the Senate Democratic
leader, said the vote he cast against the treaty on Wilson's orders was the greatest mistake of his
life.
Wilson's 14 Points were just hot air and propaganda.
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Post by Rogue 9 »

Who ran again? That sat there for four pages and you didn't say a thing to it. I didn't run.
1) Gee, you wonder why Roosevelt supported Chiang and Churchill. Why is irrelevant. He did -and years before WW2.
Was it or was it not blatantly obvious that the Axis trying to overrun Europe and Asia was a bad thing? :roll:
2) Uncle Sam saw Japan as its major threat in the Pacific since 1905. As early as the 1920s, the Navy had been wargaming possible battles against the Japanese. In 1932, the Navy even conducted a mock Pearl Harbor attack using early carriers. Who the fuck do YOU think they were preparing to fight? The Martians?
That's because Japan was the major threat in the Pacific. Preparing to counter said threat was only prudence. It doesn't mean that they wanted to go out and fight Japan at the earliest opportunity. :roll:
3) The fact that entering WW2 was necessary does not mean WW1 was, any more than putting out the fire in a burning house means playing with matches and gasoline (which caused the fire) was a good idea.
1.) Specify what war you're talking about next time, mmkay?

2.) Germany was attempting to talk Mexico into invading the U.S. If that's not casus belli, I don't know what is.
4) I already rebutted this, but please learn to count. The Sultan of Morroco recognized US independence in 1787 -more than a decade before the Barbary Wars.
Well goody goody for him. This hardly means that Muslims in general were on good terms with the U.S.
5) Some cough you have there. So bad it's convinced you that Madrid was attacked because of Spain's religious freedom and egalitarianism with women and not, say... Spain's role in invading and occupying Iraq. Take some Nyquil and sleep on it before you repeat something so completely stupid.
The point is that the U.S. is not the only one attacked. I'm also pretty sure I read about an attempted bombing of French rail lines soon afterwards as well, but I'm not sure. *Goes to check some news site archives.*
6) Then what the fuck were our soldiers and airmen doing there for over a decade?
Not conducting a military occupation. Occupation is what we're doing to Iraq. They were garrisoned there with the consent of the Saudi government, not performing a hostile occupation. Live with it.
7) Dictators already know the score when it comes to who can invade and kill whom. If you buy or are given weapons from Uncle Sam or other Nato countries (Israel, El Salvador, Indonesia et al), you can do more or less what you want with only a nasty letter in your file if you get out of hand. If you get weapons from the Warsaw Pact, China or anywhere else, you are on thin ice and had better stay in your place. If you try to stick it to the interests of big business or client states, you will get slapped down. If not, you will get a VERY nasty letter in your file.
:roll: Please, when was the last time one country invaded and annexed another country in its entirety with the U.S. standing by and doing nothing?
If the US government was truly interested in some sort of principle that it's wrong to invade and annex another country, someone would have told Israel to get out of the West Bank and Gaza immediately. Of course we know that won't happen, don't we?
Well, if you're really going to insist on breaking the moratorium on this issue, the countries in question attacked Israel first and Israel hit back. If you can't take the consequences, don't start the war.
8 ) Israel's plan is to encroach on Palestinian territory bit by bit until they have ethnicly cleansed them. That's why the Apartheid Wall cuts into Palestinian territory. To make it difficult, if not impossible for those caught on the wrong side to go about their normal lives. This is done in the hopes that they'll give up and leave. The atrocities the Isaelis commit are meant to speed things up. If the Palestinians do nothing, they get Ku Kluxed; if they fight back, Israel has a convenient excuse to kill them and steal more of their land in the name of Lebensraum.
My, I'm glad you can read the minds of Israel's leaders so reliably. But I'd like to see some, y'know, evidence that Israel is planning a Palestinian Holocaust.
9) Let's get this straight: I point out that Al-Queda obviously isn't fighting against us because of our freedoms. You respond by saying Al Queda has been against the US for several years. What does one have to do with the other?
What that has to do with it is that you claimed that they cannot be attacking us because they hate our freedoms because Ashcroft and Bush are removing said freedoms. The point was that they were attacking us long before Bush came to office, before the Patriot Act, so it could very well still be a cause.
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Post by Rogue 9 »

Oh, one more thing:
The idea of declaring victory and running home might have been a joke from George Aiken, but for Rogue 9, it's a way of life.
You, sir, have no grounds to be talking about my "way of life," of which you know nothing, based upon your own distortion of what I did in this thread, particularly since I have not run away at all.
<snip massive appeal to authority> Wilson's 14 Points were just hot air and propaganda.
1.) We have no assurance that Fleming is being forthright himself. He does, after all, have a vested interest in selling his book, which will not happen if people believe it to be propaganda in itself. For instance:
Wilson was also strongly influenced by a message from the American
ambassador to England, Thomas Nelson Page, a blatant anglophile, that Great Britain would be
bankrupt within two weeks, if the U.S. did not enter the war and provide her with funds.
So Mr. Page was "a blatant Anglophile" because Fleming says so? Okay...

2.) Even if all that about the run-up to the war is true, it says nothing at all about Wilson's part in the treaty being a sham.
He
abandoned his "Fourteen Points" for a peace of reconciliation (on the basis of which Germany
had agreed to an armistice) and joined the Europeans in forcing Germany to sign a vengeful
peace treaty which sowed the seeds of World War II.
Evidence, Mr. Fleming, since Elfdart can't seem to be bothered to actually make his own argument about this, but rather just quotes interviews? None from you either? Intriguing.
Back in Washington, his refusal to
compromise on his design of the League of Nations destroyed all hope of winning Senate
ratification of the Versailles treaty.
How consistent of him, given that he objected strongly to the Versailles terms. Why would he wish to ratify a treaty he detested? As for a refusal to compromise on the League's design, the changes the Senate wanted would have neutered the League, and he refused on those grounds, as I recall. The man stood his ground. That's hardly something to vilify him for.
Later, Senator Gilbert Hitchcock, the Senate Democratic
leader, said the vote he cast against the treaty on Wilson's orders was the greatest mistake of his
life.
The President cannot issue binding orders to Senators concerning their votes. Therefore, this is a lie as no such orders could have been issued.
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Post by RedImperator »

Rogue 9 wrote:1.) We have no assurance that Fleming is being forthright himself. He does, after all, have a vested interest in selling his book, which will not happen if people believe it to be propaganda in itself. For instance:
Wilson was also strongly influenced by a message from the American
ambassador to England, Thomas Nelson Page, a blatant anglophile, that Great Britain would be
bankrupt within two weeks, if the U.S. did not enter the war and provide her with funds.
So Mr. Page was "a blatant Anglophile" because Fleming says so? Okay...
Fleming isn't going to cite all his sources in an interview. I've seen the book and paged through it, but I haven't actually read it, so I couldn't tell you how sound the research is. It would probably help if Elfdart would cite Fleming's book and not the interview.
2.) Even if all that about the run-up to the war is true, it says nothing at all about Wilson's part in the treaty being a sham.
He
abandoned his "Fourteen Points" for a peace of reconciliation (on the basis of which Germany
had agreed to an armistice) and joined the Europeans in forcing Germany to sign a vengeful
peace treaty which sowed the seeds of World War II.
Evidence, Mr. Fleming, since Elfdart can't seem to be bothered to actually make his own argument about this, but rather just quotes interviews? None from you either? Intriguing.
Again, an interview is conducted in a limited amount of time and the article will have a limited amount of space. It's not reasonable to expect Fleming to go into greath depth and cite his sources in what sounds like a 15 minute interview. That said, it's impossible to evaluate Fleming's claim because we have no idea what his sources are. The book would hopefully reveal it (or else we could safely throw Fleming out), but it's on Elfdart to provide it.
Back in Washington, his refusal to
compromise on his design of the League of Nations destroyed all hope of winning Senate
ratification of the Versailles treaty.
How consistent of him, given that he objected strongly to the Versailles terms. Why would he wish to ratify a treaty he detested? As for a refusal to compromise on the League's design, the changes the Senate wanted would have neutered the League, and he refused on those grounds, as I recall. The man stood his ground. That's hardly something to vilify him for.
Raitfying Versailles would have given the United States the legal right to enforce the treaty, and protest how Britain and France went about doing it. It's bad to force a punitive treaty on Germany, but it's worse to allow it to happen and then leave it up to the Europeans to enforce it--we lost hundreds of thousands of our own winning the war for them, after all.

Would it have made a difference? I don't know. Roosevelt would have had a legal right to punish Hitler for remilitarizing the Rhineland, an action France refused to take which likely would have ended Hitler's political career, but I don't know if it would have been possible politically. Still, not getting a reconciliatory treaty and then not ratifying what you actually got is the worst of both worlds. Principle is nice, but nation states have other concerns.
Later, Senator Gilbert Hitchcock, the Senate Democratic
leader, said the vote he cast against the treaty on Wilson's orders was the greatest mistake of his
life.
The President cannot issue binding orders to Senators concerning their votes. Therefore, this is a lie as no such orders could have been issued.[/quote]

The President is the leader of his party and can issue orders to fellow party members in Congress. They're not bound to obey legally, and American parties can't expel members, but the President can damn well make sure disobedient senators get no party support when they run for reelection--a special concern at the time, seeing as the 17th Amendment had just recently passed and nobody knew who was going to win now that the Senate was popularly elected.
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Post by Rogue 9 »

Rogue 9 wrote:
Elfdart wrote:The idea of declaring victory and running home might have been a joke from George Aiken, but for Rogue 9, it's a way of life.
You, sir, have no grounds to be talking about my "way of life," of which you know nothing, based upon your own distortion of what I did in this thread, particularly since I have not run away at all.
Oh, and just to add. I find such accusations of cowardice quite amusing to a point, given that I'm known to pursue those who flee from me to start their bullshit at other boards across the Internet as necessary to continue beating down on them.

Red: I'm aware that the book probably goes into further detail, but Elfdart provided me with the interview. I also realize that the interview was on a limited time frame, but that's not my problem. Problems with the evidence are the concern of those who are presenting the evidence. *Shrug*
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Post by Axis Kast »

Wrong, asshole. I said that the U.S. failed it's primary responsibility undertaking the occupation. That does not translate into agreeing that invading Iraq in the first place was proper policy to anybody except you, Mr. Delusional Dishonest Fuck. Exactly what part of "Iraq had zero relevance to the War on Terror" was so difficult for you to grasp?
You have admitted that the goals we have set in Iraq can be accomplished, so long as the process in which we attempt to implement them remains dynamic. You have admitted that popular participation in representative (and, more importantly, responsible) government, increased prosperity, and improved security are achievable. What you have begun to do is challenge the tactics of the fight under the presumption that the strategic argument will also suffer. That is a false presumption, since tactics are imminently changeable – as, in fact, we have begun to see with the increasing transfer of responsibility to Iraqi experts and the expansion and reconstitution of the former army.

As for the War on Terror, Iraq is going to be the centerpiece example of a functional nation in a sea of stagnation. That aside from the pressure we’ve already seen it place on certain parties in Tripoli, Riyadh, and Islamabad, to name only a few.
Ideas cannot be defeated with armies or bombs. Knocking over every unfriendly government isn't a realistic proposition, and invading countries we suspect of fostering terrorism is a non-starter. The United States hasn't the manpower to kill, conquer, and subdue all of our enemies and they know it. Interationalising the present occupation and reconstruction effort in Iraq will contribute considerably toward defusing the present crisis —even though that means giving up primary control of the effort there.
We’re not looking to defeat ideas, but to stifle the action they produce – which is exactly what armies and bombs have been used for since their inception. You yourself advocate a judicious use of military force against terrorists and state sponsors of terrorism. Attempting to play the “Ideas cannot be defeated” card does nothing but discredit you yourself.

As for manpower, Iraq’s is currently the only occupation on our plate. Even bombing selected targets within Iran would mean a temporary redeployment of forces already in-theater.
Iran can be handled by a combination of sanctions and, where and when appropriate, engagement. The mullahs' ironclad control over the country's politics cannot last forever, and strains have already shown between them and the population at large. Furthermore, Iran needs to rebuild its economy after twelve years of revolution and war and two decades of sanctions on top of that, and that need can be exploited.
Few nations are willing to stand by the sanctions against Iran – and certainly not all those that matter. Russia, for example.

As for the mullahs, we’ve already seen that hundreds of years of strains have failed to produce effective change in the region. But, for someone like you, I suppose there’s always a bright tomorrow, isn’t there? Never mind how. :roll:

And don’t you dare try to respin that bullshit about a pliant, needy Iran, because they have made their intentions quite clear in a string of intentional hostilities in the very recent past. There is clearly no negotiation they will honor in good faith. What we have on our hands is another North Korea in the making.
Terrorism requires specialised warfare to blunt it; meaning a combination of special ops, intel, and counterinsurgency strategy, and not the resort to wholesale military adventurism. Inseperable from any effort to blunt Islamic fanatacism is putting the Israeli/Palestinian peace process back on track, even if it means sitting on the Israelis to do so. The one demonstrable fact about fanatacism is that it cannot be sustained over the long-term unless it is fed by injudicious actions on our part which "proves" the propaganda of people like Osama binLaden.
Yes, terrorism does require specialized warfare. But against nation-states who are resistant or impervious to special operations and can reduce the adverse effects of intel and counter-insurgency activities, more conventional action is the order of the day. There is no black-and-white answer here. Only by combining the two vectors can a "total” strategy by properly devised.

As for “injudicious actions,” you obviously continue to ignore the ultimate point of the past several pages, which is that America’s interests in the Middle East can always be spun to appear injudicious as long as there are no open societies to speak of.
In short, we're in for another Cold War and probably a long one. But like the last one, a combination of diplomacy, appropriate pressure, backchannel dealing when necessary, and the intelligent and judicious application of military and espionage assets offers a way to get through this crisis with the least loss of life on either side as well as the lesser cost to the treasury and our international standing. And we are going to need allies to successfully combat terrorism, which is why this cowboy crap we've been indulging is also doing more to damage our efforts than anything any enemy is responsible for.
A long war is not necessarily a Cold War. The Cold War was defined by inaction because neither power was able to bring direct force against the other for fear of mutual destruction. That is obviously not the case with terrorism or states that support it.

Allies in the war on terrorism will come with time. John Kerry’s election would not change the Europeans’ fundamental stance over Iraq, and the kind of cooperation you keep yammering about securing is otherwise there already. Even a Democrat won’t coax Europe into sending men to fight wars they don’t yet believe are vital to their own security.
4) I already rebutted this, but please learn to count. The Sultan of Morroco recognized US independence in 1787 -more than a decade before the Barbary Wars.
No, Elfdart, you rebutted nothing, since the Barbary Wars were an outgrowth of continued assaults on American and international shipping, not an immediate reaction. The Barbary States were preying on the merchantmen of multiple nations long before they were subject to reprisal. That we waited as long as we did was as much a matter of economics as anything else.
) Then what the fuck were our soldiers and airmen doing there for over a decade?
In Saudi Arabia, they were training the defense forces of that nation to function on something approaching a modern level.
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Post by Darth Wong »

Axis Kast wrote:As for the War on Terror, Iraq is going to be the centerpiece example of a functional nation in a sea of stagnation. That aside from the pressure we've already seen it place on certain parties in Tripoli, Riyadh, and Islamabad, to name only a few.
Interestingly, I do not see "self-defense" anywhere in that justification.
As for the mullahs, we've already seen that hundreds of years of strains have failed to produce effective change in the region. But, for someone like you, I suppose there's always a bright tomorrow, isn't there? Never mind how. :roll:
Perhaps that is because constant conflict and deprivation do not actually cause social progress.
Allies in the war on terrorism will come with time. John Kerry's election would not change the Europeans' fundamental stance over Iraq, and the kind of cooperation you keep yammering about securing is otherwise there already. Even a Democrat won't coax Europe into sending men to fight wars they don't yet believe are vital to their own security.
Hint: they don't believe it because it isn't true. Despite all of your claims, the invasion of Iraq has not made Europeans feel any more secure.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Comical Axi wrote: You acknowledged all of my points, idiot. You acknowledged that peace, order, stability, and prosperity would follow a well-coordinated occupation – meaning that the chaos and hopelessness that the culture of emasculation into which organizations such as al-Qaeda tap would be significantly diminished in Iraq. All this on top of the fact that the sooner we bring the various independent militias under control and establish a sufficiently large and well-educated core of Iraqi experts when it comes to rebuilding, the sooner we’ll be able to remove the most overt aspects of our influence in the area.
Since Comical Axi is determined to employ his usual bullshit-and-obsfucate method of "debate", a reiteration of the arguments he's determined to distort is in order:

1
Patrick Degan wrote:
Comical Axi wrote:
So, because our actions have made the Middle East dangerous, the solution is to repeat those actions on a larger scale, eh?


No, you moron. Because our actions have made the Middle East dangerous, the solution can't help but involve violence.

The Middle East won't change on its own. Look at governments like that of Saudi Arabia. Teetering on the brink. The institutions that most need to be there have no credibility - and, worse, no power, besides. That can't change but by outside intervention.


Except outside intervention is what caused this problem in the first place, tiger-boy, and you either can't or won't explain how repeating this disaster on a larger scale will somehow result in a different outcome beyond simply asserting ad-infinitum that it will.
2
It just does not occur to you that the use of brute force never wins an ideological contest, for which a more constructive use of power is required. And by what criteria do you judge that we cannot employ time as a primary asset in overcoming our enemies in the region? All evidence gathered since the downfall of Saddam Hussein indicated that his rule over Iraq was becoming incresingly shaky as the country deterioriated. And despite the rhetoric being spewed by the mullahs in Tehran, the Iranian population now of age has no fervour or enthusiasm for the Islamic Revolution; a fact underlinted (EDIT) by the political strains upon the mullahs' control over Iranian politics. It is you who keeps foaming at the mouth about hitting rogue regimes NOW. Is it seriously your thesis that the United States does not have the strength, flexibility, and sustainibility to outlast our enemies? That they must inevitably grow stronger while we grow concurrently weaker? If this is in fact your position, on what basis is it predicated?

3
But bombings, wars, and forced regime-changes will bring about this magickal transformation you insist will eventually occur. You pretend that this (Muslim radicalisation) would only be a short-term phenomenon and that it must melt away with determined American pressure and force. Fine argument as long as it ignores its central problem: that reform is wholly an internal process and one which cannot be forced at gunpoint at any level of intensity.

4
Comical Axi wrote:Of course, unless you actually offer something better, it does nothing to tilt the scales. If you don’t think we should have undertaken an occupation, how exactly do you think we should have rode herd over terrorists and state sponsors of terrorism in the Middle East? Ignore Iran’s overt hostility? Hope they’re playing fair when all the signs are obviously negative? Let Saudi Arabia do as it will, as old wounds simmer without salve and more vitriolic hatred is drilled into the next generation by terrorists the government is unwilling to control without a boot at its rear?
My, what big False Dilemmas you have there, grandma. The war with Iraq addressed exactly none of the concerns you raise, and is predicated on the faulty premise that it was either invade Iraq or let the terrorists win. Beyond this, you move on to another set of false arguments; one of which is your again spewing about Iran's alleged "overt hostility", even though they haven't launched a military attack upon U.S. forces or assets, nor sponsored an act of terrorism remotely near the scale of the WTC strike. Attacking Iran is not an immediate priority but is a likely liability to any rational construction of policy in the Middle East. And as for Saudi Arabia, attacking them would be about the worst conceivable plan of action, and iron-fist diplomacy is likely to fan the flames of radicalism to the point of endangering the House of Saud's hold on the government.

Ideas cannot be defeated with armies or bombs. Knocking over every unfriendly government isn't a realistic proposition, and invading countries we suspect of fostering terrorism is a non-starter. The United States hasn't the manpower to kill, conquer, and subdue all of our enemies and they know it. Interationalising the present occupation and reconstruction effort in Iraq will contribute considerably toward defusing the present crisis —even though that means giving up primary control of the effort there. Iran can be handled by a combination of sanctions and, where and when appropriate, engagement. The mullahs' ironclad control over the country's politics cannot last forever, and strains have already shown between them and the population at large. Furthermore, Iran needs to rebuild its economy after twelve years of revolution and war and two decades of sanctions on top of that, and that need can be exploited. Terrorism requires specialised warfare to blunt it; meaning a combination of special ops, intel, and counterinsurgency strategy, and not the resort to wholesale military adventurism. Inseperable from any effort to blunt Islamic fanatacism is putting the Israeli/Palestinian peace process back on track, even if it means sitting on the Israelis to do so. The one demonstrable fact about fanatacism is that it cannot be sustained over the long-term unless it is fed by injudicious actions on our part which "proves" the propaganda of people like Osama binLaden.

In short, we're in for another Cold War and probably a long one. But like the last one, a combination of diplomacy, appropriate pressure, backchannel dealing when necessary, and the intelligent and judicious application of military and espionage assets offers a way to get through this crisis with the least loss of life on either side as well as the lesser cost to the treasury and our international standing. And we are going to need allies to successfully combat terrorism, which is why this cowboy crap we've been indulging is also doing more to damage our efforts than anything any enemy is responsible for.
The only way Axi derives "agreement" out of the body of my arguments with his psychotic vision of things is by citing the observations of what we have and are doing wrong in the occupation of Iraq wholly out of context. This on top of his usual strawman distortions and general dishonesty.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

And now for the bullshit of the day:

Part One
Axis Kast wrote:
Wrong, asshole. I said that the U.S. failed it's primary responsibility undertaking the occupation. That does not translate into agreeing that invading Iraq in the first place was proper policy to anybody except you, Mr. Delusional Dishonest Fuck. Exactly what part of "Iraq had zero relevance to the War on Terror" was so difficult for you to grasp?
You have admitted that the goals we have set in Iraq can be accomplished, so long as the process in which we attempt to implement them remains dynamic.
Lie.
You have admitted that popular participation in representative (and, more importantly, responsible) government, increased prosperity, and improved security are achievable.
Lie.
What you have begun to do is challenge the tactics of the fight under the presumption that the strategic argument will also suffer.
Lie.
That is a false presumption, since tactics are imminently changeable – as, in fact, we have begun to see with the increasing transfer of responsibility to Iraqi experts and the expansion and reconstitution of the former army.
You mean the laughable pretense of the sovereignty transfer? Nobody except the PNAC groupies believes in the reality of that alleged event. Neither is anybody willing to lay serious money on the reliability of the New Model Iraqi army.
As for the War on Terror, Iraq is going to be the centerpiece example of a functional nation in a sea of stagnation. That aside from the pressure we’ve already seen it place on certain parties in Tripoli, Riyadh, and Islamabad, to name only a few.
You'll pardon me for laughing, I trust.
Ideas cannot be defeated with armies or bombs. Knocking over every unfriendly government isn't a realistic proposition, and invading countries we suspect of fostering terrorism is a non-starter. The United States hasn't the manpower to kill, conquer, and subdue all of our enemies and they know it. Interationalising the present occupation and reconstruction effort in Iraq will contribute considerably toward defusing the present crisis —even though that means giving up primary control of the effort there.
We’re not looking to defeat ideas, but to stifle the action they produce – which is exactly what armies and bombs have been used for since their inception. You yourself advocate a judicious use of military force against terrorists and state sponsors of terrorism. Attempting to play the “Ideas cannot be defeated” card does nothing but discredit you yourself.
It takes one truly delusional little mind to translate "judicious use of military force" as wholesale military adventurism. And until the ideas which motivate the actions they produce are tackled and defeated, the actions will not be stifled.
As for manpower, Iraq’s is currently the only occupation on our plate. Even bombing selected targets within Iran would mean a temporary redeployment of forces already in-theater.
That's assuming that there are any to spare. There aren't.
Iran can be handled by a combination of sanctions and, where and when appropriate, engagement. The mullahs' ironclad control over the country's politics cannot last forever, and strains have already shown between them and the population at large. Furthermore, Iran needs to rebuild its economy after twelve years of revolution and war and two decades of sanctions on top of that, and that need can be exploited.
Few nations are willing to stand by the sanctions against Iran – and certainly not all those that matter. Russia, for example.
Oh, really:
Progress in Russia Prompts Sanctions Changes

Citing progress in Russia's enforcement of export controls, the Clinton administration announced April 24 that it was lifting sanctions against two Russian companies that had been accused of aiding Iranian missile programs. The administration had sanctioned INOR Scientific Center and Polyus Scientific Production Association (as well as five other Russian entities) in 1998 for their contributions to Iran's ballistic missile development program, but now maintains that the two firms have "ceased proliferant behavior," according to State Department spokesman James Rubin.

The administration also praised "Russia's commitment to stopping the flow of sensitive technologies to Iran," as demonstrated by its crackdown on the Baltic State Technical University (BSTU), which had also been cited in 1998 for training Iranian specialists in missile-related fields. According to Rubin, that training has stopped but sanctions remain in place, and the administration has now imposed sanctions on the university's rector, Yuri Saval'ev.

Responding to the developments, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said April 25, "The U.S. administration has finally appreciated progressive improvement of the national export control and strict compliance with international commitments in non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." But the spokesman criticized the continued application of sanctions to BSTU as an "obvious attempt to call into question the efficiency of measures by the Russian authorities taken against the BSTU rector."
And
Nov. 20, 2003

The International Atomic Energy Agency meets to discuss action against Iran following revelations that for 18 years, Tehran has hidden a wide variety of nuclear activities. The Bush administration favors a non-compliance ruling and U.N. economic sanctions against Iran. But European countries and Russia support more surprise inspections by the IAEA.
And:
excerpt:

Conclusion

It is clear that although Russia continues to discount U.S. allegations of Iranian pursuit of nuclear weapons, its policy toward Iran has undergone some change. Whereas in the past Minatom officials expressed skepticism toward claims that Iran was attempting a domestic nuclear fuel cycle, the recently revealed information about Iranian enrichment activities forced a reevaluation of Iran's capabilities in that area. Russia, which in the past has been satisfied with the level of IAEA safeguards at Iranian nuclear facilities, has called on Iran to sign an additional protocol with the IAEA. After an apparent period of indecision and policy debate, Minister of Atomic Energy Rumyantsev said on June 20, 2003, that Russia would provide nuclear fuel for the Bushehr reactor only after Iran signed an additional protocol, a clear concession to the United States.[19] Rumyantsev also stated that Russia would supply nuclear fuel only after Iran put under IAEA safeguards all of its nuclear facilities and fully satisfied all of IAEA's concerns.[20] Although Russia continues to regard with skepticism claims of an Iranian nuclear weapons program and has framed its concerns about Iranian nuclear facilities in terms of harm that might be done to Russia's commercial interests, Rumyantsev's statement suggests that there exists a possibility for narrowing the gap between Russia and the United States. Although there are no signs Russia has become more willing to abandon the Bushehr project, its support for more stringent IAEA safeguards is a welcome development.
Really, Axi, do your own fucking homework for a change.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Part Two
Comical Axi wrote:As for the mullahs, we’ve already seen that hundreds of years of strains have failed to produce effective change in the region. But, for someone like you, I suppose there’s always a bright tomorrow, isn’t there? Never mind how. :roll:
Nice little strawman. Pity that it ignores this:
Regime Change in Iran: An Analytic Framework
Jun 26, 2004, 05:38
by Lt. Frank Okata

From Strategic Insights, Volume II, Issue 11 (November 2003)


Iran, the largest country in the Persian Gulf and member of President George W. Bush's "Axis of Evil," perplexes many astute observers of international relations. Iran became the first Islamic theocracy in the world promising its inhabitants the benefits of divinely guided social justice and prosperity. Twenty-four years later, none of these benefits have materialized. A variety of public opinion polls over the last 18 months show widespread discontent within the Islamic Republic led by the valy-e faqih (Supreme Leader) Ali Khamanei. Given the increasing discontent in Iran, can we expect the Islamic Republic to endure in its current state for the foreseeable future?

As the United States considers the policy conundrums presented by such issues as whether and/or how to promote regime change in Tehran and how to address Iran's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program, there is a model that can help explain the ways in which the theocratic state can succumb to civil unrest inside the country. The model is based on the conclusions drawn by a social scientist and scholar of revolutions and political discontent, Theodore Robert Gurr, whose 1970 book Why Men Rebel analyzes how discontent can be politicized leading to violence against the regime. Gurr's framework starts with the people first focusing their discontent against the regime's institutions, personalities and policies. This leads to the theory of Relative Deprivation�the people's perceived discrepancy between two values: reality and capabilities. If the discrepancy reaches a given magnitude, political violence is likely because the people will find relief in venting their anger since other means of recourse are apparently closed to them.[1]

Gurr matches the capability of dissidents to rock the foundations of the establishment against the latter's resilience, called the coercive balance. The dissident capability to shake the foundations of the establishment is mentioned because when studying social uprisings, the fall of the established powers is never guaranteed unless it is being studied post facto. The last element in Gurr's analysis is the end state. Will the regime collapse, be overthrown, or remain in power? Arriving at an end state directly flows from the tension inherent in the coercive balance. How does this apply to present day Iran?

Institutions, Personalities, and Policies
Iranian society has focused its discontent towards the institutions, personalities and policies which have set the country on its present course, namely the valy-e faqih (Council of Guardians), bonyads (Islamic charitable foundations), and the basiji (organized band of government sponsored thugs). The personalities are current valy-e faqih, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei and President Mohammed Khatami. The policies in this case are suffocating controls on social freedom, and the continued overt animosity towards the United States.

The valy-e faqih according the creator of the position, Ayatollah Khomeini, constitutes the representative of the twelfth Imam on earth. Iran, home to most of the world's Shi'a, must be ruled in his name.[2] In 1978-79, a popular consensus developed to overthrow the Shah, but there was no agreement as to who would replace him. After the Shah stepped down, a chaotic period ensued until Khomeini consolidated his position after the hostage crisis in November 1979. The Shi'a clergy represented the only cohesive organization opposing the Shah that had the three most important ingredients for a successful social movements: ideology (Islam), leadership (Khomeini), and institutions (mosques). While Khomeini was a charismatic and learned cleric, he was not a Grand Ayatollah. Nonetheless, Khomeini possessed the religious credentials and political expertise necessary of a valy-e faqih.[3] Khomeini's death soon revealed the institutional fragility of the valy-e faqih. His successor Khamenei lacked the appropriate religious credentials but had political expertise. Khamenei has therefore been a very shrewd politician, but as valy-e faqih the spiritual path of Iran is in question because he does not live up to Khomeini's reputation.[4] This is a problem with charismatic dictators because one cannot expect the next ruler to be of equal caliber to the predecessor.

In Iran's system, the Council of Guardians selects candidates for public office. There are two important criteria for selection as a political candidate, the first being "practical adherence to Islam", and the second, "acceptance of the concept of valy-e faqih and commitment to the political system." As their name suggests, the Council has been the staunchest protector of the revolution. In 1997 only four candidates were allowed to run for president out of the 230 that applied.[5]

The third important institution in Iran are bonyads, or charitable religious foundations. The bonyads act as collection agencies to enable the practice of the fourth pillar of Islam, called zakat, in which Muslims are required to give a portion of their income to charities. Bonyads such as the Foundation for the Oppressed, Martyrs Foundation, and War Wounded boast assets said to exceed $100 billion and reportedly control over 40% percent of the non-oil sector of the Iranian economy. Given the low rate of capital accumulation in the Iranian economcy, the foundations constitute one of the few governmental institutions for internal economic investment. [6] The bonyads represent one big roadblock to diversification of the Iranian economy. Iran has experienced significant economic contraction over the last 25 years. In 1977, the gross national product (GNP) totaled $85 billion, shrinking to $82 billion by 1986. The 2001 GDP totaled $115 billion. As measured in constant 2001 dollars, the 1986 GDP would total $135 billion. Stated another way, the Iranian economy has lost one seventh of its value in real terms over the last 24 years.[7] The bonyads stifle entrepreneurs and the bazaaris not affiliated with bonyads suffer because the latter dominate the export and import businesses. Thanks to their status as Islamic charities, the bonyads are tax-exempt and receive favorable exchange rates.[8]

The basiji, or religious thugs, act on behalf of the clerics with the bonyads as their key enforcers. While not directly controlled from Tehran, the command of the basiji is outsourced to local mosques that are accountable to the valy-e faqih. The basiji have come to represent an increasingly important arm of the regime's internal security apparatus, supplanting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after it refused to suppress the 1994 Ghazvin riots. The regime deployed the basiji there and in Teheran in 1999 and 2003. Forty percent of the vacancies at universities are reserved for basiji. This is substantial given their suspect academic qualifications. The basiji are a vital constituency for the present regime, which goes out of its way to ensure its loyalty.[9]

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Khatami are the two most important leadership personalites. Both the position of valy-e faqih and its occupant are despised by many Iranians. President Khatami has proven unable to convert his overwhelmingly popular mandate into concrete reforms. Ironically, his landslide elections were manipulated by the mullahs to validate the valy-e faqih system due to the large turnout. Although Khatami is popular abroad, he has not been able to use his popularity to induce the clerics to embrace an even moderate reformist genda.[10]

In the public policy arena, the lack of social freedom especially for women remains an acute source of discontent. Iran differs from its Arab neighbors in that women are active participants in the work force.[11] Their mobilization in the work place contrasts with significant social restrictions and diminished opportunity in a saturated job market.

The last policy aspect is the collision course between the Iranian theocracy and the United States. The average Iranian does not bear ill will against America, as evidenced in the large turnout for a pro-America rally to sympathize with the victims of 9/11. The animosity brought about by the Iranian government's sponsorship of terrorism is devastating to Iran's economy because much needed American expertise and capital for the oil sector is unavailable and the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 limits the amount of investment from other nations.[12]

Relative Deprivation
The mullahs have either willingly or reluctantly given Iran what Gurr would call societal conditions that increase the average level or intensity of expectations without increasing capabilities�thus increasing the amount of discontent.[13] Some of the contradictions can be considered critical variables in Relative Deprivation (RD) theory. Different social, political and economic blocs within the Iranian population have been acutely affected by Iran's economic stagnation. The bazaaris, for example are one such bloc. During the Shah's reign, they were undercut by large foreign retailers. When the mullahs came to power, the bazaaris not allied with bonyads were weakened because in the import-export business, they have to pay market prices for hard currency whereas the bonyads and partners trade at the much cheaper official rate. Before 1979, lucrative business was reserved for the Shah's associates, and there has been little change since the bonyads have supplanted the latter.[14] To make matters worse, Khomeini encouraged the populace to have large families as a way to recover from the tremendous losses in the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88). These children have come of age into an economic environment that does not meet their requirements, and many seek to emigrate.[15]

Sanctions by the United States further complicate economic life for the mullahs. Iran's foreign debt now totals $23 billion, with domestic reserves totaling an estimated $15 billion. Because the United States has the most votes in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran has using this important international institution to manage its complex finances. When coupled with its problems dealing with the Paris Club of Bankers, therefore, Iran must make separate financing agreements with about 20 countries thereby increasing costs.[16] Allowing the bonyads to use the official foreign exchange (forex) rate forces the mullahs to operate at a net loss. This may lead to a diminished ability to patronize the bonyads to which many basiji are outsourced. It is therefore in U.S. interests to limit Iran's access to foreign capital. The lack of capital accumulation curtails entrepreneurship which in turn limits the ability of the economy to absorb the thousands of high school and university graduates flooding the job market. Further, by creating an uneven playing field in the bazaar, the mullahs only propagate discontent that will invariably continue to manifest itself on the street.

On the political front, the Iranian people feel increasingly disconnected from their religious leaders. The valy-e faqih is accountable to God and is above all politics; the ultimate arbiter of right and wrong.[17] Khomeini's heirs lack his legitimacy and appeal and are hence vulnerable to the sources of political upheaval. The clerics act mostly to preserve their own power therefore becoming a barrier to change.[18] The proportion of political elite (mullahs) to political participants also is very low. If the regime fails to respond to pressures for reform, participatory RD increases to a point where violence is directed towards the establishment. In the Hashemi Aghajari controversy, the great upheaval surrounding his death sentence made the decision float from appeal to appeal because of the mullahs' reluctance to face the consequences of his execution.[19] This can be explained in RD theory as the last resort that transforms a legitimate form of government (because of the mullahs' claim of popular validation through elections) into an illegitimate institution.[20]

It is difficult to live within the confines of "divine legitimacy" when it becomes clear that those who consider themselves God's messengers are themselves flawed. This is accentuated by the state's role in defining the Almighty. Hence in Iran the valy-e faqih are operating as the ultimate authority and accountable to nobody, least of all the general populace.[21] This gives Iranians a sense of helplessness and a need to somehow address their grievances. The longer the reconciliation is delayed, the greater the potential for violence and widespread civil unrest. [22]

The Iranian Coercive Balance
Coercive balance is the potential for force and counterforce during prolonged periods of civil unrest. Recent events such as the intense rioting in June 2003 inspired by Los Angeles based satellite TV and the Aghajari controversy show that the clerics may have lost the upper hand. In these riots, the rioters actively confronted the state's forces. The mullahs had no choice but to use force to repress the dissent. Gurr's cycle of force and counterforce is thus observed.[23] Force is resident with the dissident movement in Iran because they are the agents of change while counterforce is associated with the regime because they must respond to popular instigation. Scholars of social revolution agree that for change to occur, the regime must suffer a general military breakdown. Dissidents cannot prevail against a well disciplined, led, and funded force.[24]

The mullahs are not a monolithic bloc because many of them oppose the regime including Ali Montazeri, who at one time was Khomeini's successor. The ruling mullahs have three different ideological factions. The Line of the Imam (LOI), Khomeini's most faithful supporters, advocate exporting the revolution. Prominent during Khomeini's rule, they fell out of favor with Khamenei because he was insecure and wanted a subdued LOI. The next religious faction is the Combatant Clergymen Association (CCA), which came to prominence when President Rafsanjani (1989-1997) broke with Khamenei because the Supreme Leader merged the komiteh, IRGC, and the Gendarmerie in 1992. The security services merger alienated Rafsanjani from Khamenei due to the purges within the LOI. The CCA controls the most important bonyads and are the biggest sponsors of the basiji. The last faction is the Servants of Construction (SOC) led by Ali Rafsanjani, a very influential mullah also known for his prolific corruption. The SOC controls the Central Bank and IRNA, Iran's official news agency.[25]

Iranian dissidents are fragmented, ranging from monarchists to the notorious Mujaheddin Khalq (MEK) which was allied with Saddam Hussein. The virtual elimination of social freedoms make it hard for Iranians to coalesce around any single group. The opposition is thus fragmented, not unlike the opposition to the Shah. There is a yearning for a charismatic leader who can unify the opposition but as witnessed with Khomeini, this is not necessarily desirable. The lack of dissident unity makes them prone to targeting by Iranian security forces.[26]

The balance seems lopsided in the mullahs' favor; however, the sub-theory of fleeting versus consistent compliance must be taken into consideration. Consistent compliance is preferable because the leadership's directives are followed at the penalty of sanction, akin to discipline and cohesion within security services. With fleeting compliance, the regime's coercive functions are not standardized and loyalties are suspect�for example, the IRGC voting for Khatami in 1997.[27] To fix fleeting compliance sanctions or patronage must be imposed or a more loyal group developed. Patronage has its own vulnerabilities because if the money runs out, the regime loses the basiji.

End Game
The magnitude of unrest can be described as internal war, turmoil, or conspiracy. Internal war is an all out civil war between factions with even coercive capability. Turmoil is a slow approach taken when the balance is lopsided in the regime's favor and the opposition lacks organization. In a conspiracy, the balance favors the incumbent but the dissidents are organized and the regime has a specific vulnerability that can be exploited. This is unlikely in Iran because the mullahs are fragmented but will unify to protect their interests. Coercive balance can be settled in two ways: one group either exhausts its resources or attains the capacity of genocidal victory over its opponents. The latter was the case in Saddam's Iraq where the balance was totally in his favor. For that to happen, the people must be destitute enough to give up dissidence because they are preoccupied with subsistence.[28] Iran is not in such a situation and the dissident movement is a low cost operation goaded by the internet and Los Angeles based satellite TV which ties up the mullahs' coercive apparatus at considerable expense.

Regime change is accomplished by either a collapse or overthrow. Overthrow requires success in an internal war or conspiracy. Since these two options are difficult to foresee in Iran, regime collapse is the most viable option. Increasing reliance on the basiji and patronage has made co-option the bond between the ruling clerics and the enforcers. A serious downturn of the Iranian economy could cause an erosion of loyalty from the basiji, IRGC, and the military. Another factor seldom mentioned is the civil service which helps make the state governable. If significant numbers of civil servants go uncompensated for a prolonged period, acute paralysis may overcome Iran leading to the regime's collapse.

References
1. Theodore Robert Gurr: Why Men Rebel? (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1970); 13.
2. Dariush Zahedi: The Iranian Revolution Then and Now, indicators of regime instability. Boulder, Westview Press, 2001; p. 68-9.
3. Ibid. 68-9.
4. Ibid, 80.
5. Ibid, 105.
6. Suzanne Maloney: A report on "Bonyads: Power in Iran." Middle East Institute Policy Briefs. (7 December 2002).
7. Jack Goldstone, Ted Gurr, and Farrokh Moshiri: Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century. Boulder: Westview Press, 1991; p. 126-7
8. Zahedi, 105.
9. Ibid 98-9.
10. Ibid, 81-2.
11. Insight by Prof. Barak Salmoni, NPS faculty.
12. Congressional Record. Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 (House of Representatives�June 18, 1996) Courtesy of Federation of American Scientists. (22 September 2003).
13. Gurr, 130.
14. Zahedi, 89.
15. Bijan Mosavar-Rahmani: "Oil in U.S.-Iranian Relations." (9 March 2003)
16. Paris Club. Presentation. (9 March 2003) and Zahedi, 5-6.
17. Abbas Abdi: "The Reform Movement: Background and Vulnerability." Global Dialogue, Summer 2001.
18. Gurr, 148-9.
19. BBC News. Profile: Hashem Aghajari. (22 September 2003).
20. Gurr, 187.
21. Abdi, 31.
22. Observation by LT Gary Chase, NPS student.
23. Gurr, 232.
24. Zahedi, 165.
25. National Council of Resistance of Iran Foreign Affairs Committee: The Myth of Moderation; Iran under Khatami. (National Council of Resistance of Iran Press, Auvers-sur-Oisne, 1998) Chapter Three: Sanabargh Zahedi The Three Factions of the Clerical Regime; 44-46.
26. Sam Ghandchi: What is Wrong with the Iranian Opposition? (18 March 2002).
27. Michael Eisenstadt: The Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran: An Assessment. (18 March 2003). MERIA: Middle East Review of International Affairs
28. Gurr, 235.

© Iranian.ws
The current Iranian situation has not been going on "for centuries" and the political strains between the populace, the central government, and the mullahs is an observable phenomenon. I'd really wish you'd do your own fucking homework for a change.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln

People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House

Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
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Patrick Degan
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Part Three
Comical Axi wrote:And don’t you dare try to respin that bullshit about a pliant, needy Iran, because they have made their intentions quite clear in a string of intentional hostilities in the very recent past. There is clearly no negotiation they will honor in good faith. What we have on our hands is another North Korea in the making.
The bullshit is yours, I do believe. Really, how long are you going to keep spewing the same tired arguments ad-nauseum?
Terrorism requires specialised warfare to blunt it; meaning a combination of special ops, intel, and counterinsurgency strategy, and not the resort to wholesale military adventurism. Inseperable from any effort to blunt Islamic fanatacism is putting the Israeli/Palestinian peace process back on track, even if it means sitting on the Israelis to do so. The one demonstrable fact about fanatacism is that it cannot be sustained over the long-term unless it is fed by injudicious actions on our part which "proves" the propaganda of people like Osama binLaden.
Yes, terrorism does require specialized warfare. But against nation-states who are resistant or impervious to special operations and can reduce the adverse effects of intel and counter-insurgency activities, more conventional action is the order of the day. There is no black-and-white answer here. Only by combining the two vectors can a "total” strategy by properly devised.
Only in the bizarro-world of Weltpolitik and not in any real world.
As for “injudicious actions,” you obviously continue to ignore the ultimate point of the past several pages, which is that America’s interests in the Middle East can always be spun to appear injudicious as long as there are no open societies to speak of.
I haven't ignored it at all. I simply state that the argument is idiotic on its face, and one not supported by the history of the last fifty years.
In short, we're in for another Cold War and probably a long one. But like the last one, a combination of diplomacy, appropriate pressure, backchannel dealing when necessary, and the intelligent and judicious application of military and espionage assets offers a way to get through this crisis with the least loss of life on either side as well as the lesser cost to the treasury and our international standing. And we are going to need allies to successfully combat terrorism, which is why this cowboy crap we've been indulging is also doing more to damage our efforts than anything any enemy is responsible for.
A long war is not necessarily a Cold War. The Cold War was defined by inaction because neither power was able to bring direct force against the other for fear of mutual destruction. That is obviously not the case with terrorism or states that support it.
Nice if the point was a straight comparison to the U.S./Soviet Cold War. It wasn't however.
Allies in the war on terrorism will come with time. John Kerry’s election would not change the Europeans’ fundamental stance over Iraq, and the kind of cooperation you keep yammering about securing is otherwise there already. Even a Democrat won’t coax Europe into sending men to fight wars they don’t yet believe are vital to their own security.
Except unilaterialism makes for intrangicense even among allies, particularly those which aren't as politically stable as most other nations. Pakistan, for example.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln

People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House

Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
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