Critical Thinking: What happens when Castro dies?

[CaptainChewbacca]

I was looking at the Kerry-Florida thread, and started wondering what will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

He hasn't really been grooming a clear successor, and there will likely be chaos following his death. Given the placement of Guantanamo Bay I can't see the US sitting by and allowing a civil war to go on so close to home. Will we send in peacekeepers? Set up a new government? Annex Cuba AGAIN?

[Vympel]

We don't know if he's groomed a successor or not, but I see no reason to assume chaos- it's not the first time the leader of a communist country has died after all. I doubt the Cuban military would look to kindly on American interference in internal Cuban affairs from Guantanamo Bay, but the US undoubtedly would interfere, its been American policy that they "own" Cuba in one way or another since 1783.

[TrailerParkJawa]

I hope when he dies, we open full relations with Cuba and end this stupid fucking charade. Nothing will please me more that to break the political back of Floridian Cubans who froth at the mouth.

[Zed Snardbody]

When will he die though?

Those nuclear battaries are supposed to last for quite some time. I suppose the robot could break down at some point, but even still.

[Jade Falcon]

Given the placement of Guantanamo Bay I can't see the US sitting by and allowing a civil war to go on so close to home. Will we send in peacekeepers? Set up a new government? Annex Cuba AGAIN?

Wasn't Guantanamo Bay more or less closed down as a US base with a skeleton staff prior to 9/11. I didn't that there were any significant forces deployed there any more.

[Gil Hamilton]

That assumes the very questionable assumption that Castro will, in fact, die.

[Rogue 9]

Given the placement of Guantanamo Bay I can't see the US sitting by and allowing a civil war to go on so close to home. Will we send in peacekeepers? Set up a new government? Annex Cuba AGAIN?

Wasn't Guantanamo Bay more or less closed down as a US base with a skeleton staff prior to 9/11. I didn't that there were any significant forces deployed there any more.

Maybe not, I don't know, but it's still a U.S. base. A civil war near one of those would get forces stationed there mighty quick.

[Illuminatus Primus]

We don't know if he's groomed a successor or not, but I see no reason to assume chaos- it's not the first time the leader of a communist country has died after all. I doubt the Cuban military would look to kindly on American interference in internal Cuban affairs from Guantanamo Bay, but the US undoubtedly would interfere, its been American policy that they "own" Cuba in one way or another since 1783.

Actually, we didn't give a shit about Cuba until yellow journalism waxed poetic prior to the Spanish-American war; Jefferson's remarks about Cuba making a good State for the Union does not equal policy.

[DPDarkPrimus]

When will he die though?

Those nuclear battaries are supposed to last for quite some time. I suppose the robot could break down at some point, but even still.

One could claim it could simply break down from the inevitable programming loop errors, but it seems to function fine with the all-too-common skip of the "endSpeech" command.

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

That assumes the very questionable assumption that Castro will, in fact, die.

Didn't his doctor say that he would live to be 140?

[DPDarkPrimus]

The man is very healthy-looking for his age.

[Vympel]

Actually, we didn't give a shit about Cuba until yellow journalism waxed poetic prior to the Spanish-American war; Jefferson's remarks about Cuba making a good State for the Union does not equal policy.

Not so- the US offered to buy Cuba from the Spanish twice in the 19th century- well before 1898 and the whole "yellow journalism" thing. It wasn't just Jefferson who expressed interest either, I believe Adams is on the record as well. Besides, it'd take more than US newspapers to motivate the US government to make it a client state- they clearly had interests there they wanted to protect apart from the whole anti-Spanish hysteria.

Regardless, the US has been meddling with Cuba for a long time now. Hopefully the world doesn't buy the US' bullshit when they try and meddle once Castro is gone, and help the Cubans to be left the hell alone for once.

[Elheru Aran]

Here's what I reckon would happen once Castro kicks the bucket...

His successor rules for awhile, trying hard to keep the military under control. Trouble erupts; the US, a la Haiti, sends in troops from Guanatamo to quiet everything down. Afterwards, they offer aid to Castro's successor, in exchange for him allowing a free, democratic multi-party election...

Of course, the bit about trouble happenin' is bald speculation. Given the propensity for military insurrections in the Caribbean and Central/South America, though, I wouldn't disregard the possibility of that happening after Castro's death anytime soon...

[CJvR]

I suspect that the Cubans are rather tired of 50y cold war with the US that have done nothing except impovrish Cuba, even with the infusion of free oil fro Venezuela can hide that. Most likely they will pick a reformer who will try to fix the system causing it to fail completly followed by some badly working efforts at democracy.

[JME2]

I suspect that the Cubans are rather tired of 50y cold war with the US that have done nothing except impovrish Cuba, even with the infusion of free oil fro Venezuela can hide that. Most likely they will pick a reformer who will try to fix the system causing it to fail completly followed by some badly working efforts at democracy.

They certainly won't have any trust towards the U.S. if and when this happens.

[Col. Crackpot]

I suspect that the Cubans are rather tired of 50y cold war with the US that have done nothing except impovrish Cuba, even with the infusion of free oil fro Venezuela can hide that. Most likely they will pick a reformer who will try to fix the system causing it to fail completly followed by some badly working efforts at democracy.

They certainly won't have any trust towards the U.S. if and when this happens.

then we send all the exiled Cubans in Dade County Florida back to Cuba to fix the problem. There are more of them than Cubans in Cuba now anyway.