Swing Voters. Do they really matter anymore?

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-09-03 11:20am

It seems that Carl Rove has made the decision that they will not bother much with the swing voters as evidenced by the RNC this week. It was essentially a fiery appeal to the base with all out attacks against Kerry and the Dmeocrats (after whining incessantly during the DNC about a hint of any Bush bashing)

Kerry last night launched a blistering attack of his own in response to slipping poll numbers and an obvious effect that the negative Republican campaigning is having.

Each side has initially tried to court the undecided votes. People who for the life of me have not made up their minds yet. Frankly, I have far more respect for a rabid Bush supporter than an undecided in this election. We KNOW where Bush stands on the issues, we KNOW the clusterfuck that is Iraq. We KNOW where Kerry stands on most issues (flip flops aside) Nothing, we hope, is going to happen to change the political landscape as it stands between these two men.

So who are these people and more importantly should we care any more?

Should this be about firing up your base getting out the vote and hope that enough swing voters eventually make up their minds and get out to vote and if they don't vote at al then truly who gives a shit about them? Or should each side still be conciliatory to them?

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-09-03 11:27am

Perhaps a more pertinent question is: do the swing voters even exist? Or are they mythical? I'm sure there are people out there who still can't make up their minds, but I don't believe these people will vote for either party on election day at all, so who gives a fuck what they think?

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-09-03 11:30am

Mike I wonder if the Republicans have come to this conclusion about them not existing because they certainly are acting like it. We've had this crammed down our throats by the media for months about this vast sea of undecided voters. I say if you can't decide by now you're hopeless.

Kyle · Post by **Kyle** » 2004-09-03 11:59am

Darth Wong wrote:Perhaps a more pertinent question is: do the swing voters even exist? Or are they mythical? I'm sure there are people out there who still can't make up their minds, but I don't believe these people will vote for either party on election day at all, so who gives a fuck what they think?

swing voters still exist. I know this since I still haven't decided who I'm voting for. Both candidates have things about them that I dislike and both have a few issues that I agree with them on. Basically I'm still trying to decide who I dislike less. I agree though that I'm probably in a very small minority in that I haven't made up my mind yet.

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2004-09-03 12:15pm

If you mean swing voters as in those who haven't made up their minds between the candidates yet, probably not.

If by swing voters you mean those who aren't dead set on voting for their chosen party come hell or high water, but rather choose on the merits of the candidate, then we'll always matter. Like the sig says: The true rulers of the Republic. Neither party has over 50% of the vote secured for themselves in the form of unthinking party drones, so those who aren't dead set for life will always effectively decide the Presidency, at least until that changes, which I don't see happening.

Jalinth · Post by **Jalinth** » 2004-09-03 01:15pm

Rogue 9 wrote:If you mean swing voters as in those who haven't made up their minds between the candidates yet, probably not.

If by swing voters you mean those who aren't dead set on voting for their chosen party come hell or high water, but rather choose on the merits of the candidate, then we'll always matter. Like the sig says: The true rulers of the Republic. Neither party has over 50% of the vote secured for themselves in the form of unthinking party drones, so those who aren't dead set for life will always effectively decide the Presidency, at least until that changes, which I don't see happening.

Agreed. Campaigns have a few tasks. Energize the faithful (those who will vote R or D come hell or high water - get out those votes), convince the moderates of your party to follow you (those people who will tend to vote R or D but do vote otherwise depending on the people, issues, etc..) and the true swing (no particular party affiliation).

The worth (to a campaign) of the swing voter depends on whether they actually vote. If you have a block of swing voters who vote 90% of the time, they are probably worth going after. If they vote 10% of the time, who cares (not worthwhile pursuing).

Given the polarization of the electorate, I don't know how many real swing voters exist - many would have made up their minds by now - Bush, Kerry, none of the above. In which case, you need to energize your core voters - if you get out 90% and your opponent 65%, you are likely to win even if all the "swing" voters break the other way.

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2004-09-03 01:16pm

Edit to the above: What the sig used to say about a week ago.

Andrew J. · Post by **Andrew J.** » 2004-09-03 01:55pm

Rogue 9 wrote:Edit to the above: What the sig used to say about a week ago.

We'd probably be better off if shrimp were in charge instead of what we have now.