Huge post convention bounce for Bush

Col. Crackpot · Post by **Col. Crackpot** » 2004-09-03 04:17pm

Bush leaps out to 11 point lead in latest Time Magazine Poll

wow

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-09-03 04:24pm

Holy Jesus. I scoffed last night when someone over AIM predicted a 4 point bounce.

neoolong · Post by **neoolong** » 2004-09-03 04:28pm

RedImperator wrote:Holy Jesus. I scoffed last night when someone over AIM predicted a 4 point bounce.

Well, technically he was wrong.

Glocksman · Post by **Glocksman** » 2004-09-03 04:28pm

The key isn't whether Bush gets a nationwide post convention bounce. The key is whether or not he gets (and can keep) one in the 'battleground' states that aren't firmly in either camp.

Still, this is pretty surprising.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-03 04:29pm

God. Dammit.

Kerry needs to do some major damage control.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-09-03 04:29pm

I highly doubt such a huge boost will last until even until the next poll is posted here, let alone taken.

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2004-09-03 04:38pm

Durandal wrote:God. Dammit.

Kerry needs to do some major damage control.

I'd imagine that his staffers are hurridly updating their resumes and speed-dailing their lobbyist friends. And twenty bucks says that McAulluff had to be physically restrained from grabbing a shotgun and cleaning house.

Axis Kast · Post by **Axis Kast** » 2004-09-03 04:55pm

Business Lunch with Ken Lay and Martha Stewart - $175.00 on MasterCard.

Republican National Convention - $175 million on Federal Credit.

Letting your mole John Kerry Hand You the Campaign on a Silver Platter - Priceless.

For everything else, there's MasterCard.

Quadlok · Post by **Quadlok** » 2004-09-03 05:15pm

I'll believe this after I see more polls that support the bounce. Honestly, after the Dem convention every poll said something different, little bounce, big bounce, no bounce, bounce for Bush. So I don't see this being much different.

That said, WE'RE DOOMED!!!DOOOOOOMMMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-03 05:51pm

Col. Crackpot wrote:Bush leaps out to 11 point lead in latest Time Magazine Poll

wow

DAMN. That's a HUGE surprise, given Kerry's pitiful bounce following the DNC, the fact that Kerry et. al were actively campaigning during the RNC, and the fact that the electorate is so completely polarized that there's hardly anyone left to join one side or the other.

Where the fuck is Kerry's campaign? What the fuck are they thinking/doing about this?

edit: This may be the most surprising part.

Time wrote:Bush vs. Kerry:
The economy: 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.
Health care: 48% trust Senator Kerry to handle health care issues, while 42% trust Bush.
Iraq: 53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.
Terrorism: 57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.
Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.
Providing strong leadership: 56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.
Tax policy: 49% trust Bush to handle tax policy, while 40% trust Kerry.
Commanding the Armed Forces: 54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Bush has leads in all but two of the categories, here, and significant leads on everything defense related.

Axis Kast · Post by **Axis Kast** » 2004-09-03 06:13pm

Like I said before, Kerry's been so terrified to articulate his positions for so long because he's afraid of alienating his disparate collection of voters that he's actually begun to lose people for want of a forceful message.

Not to mention that aside from his positions on social issues - which I doubt he'll be able to press against a conservative Congress and populace anyway -, Kerry has few redeemable qualities even when stacked up against Bush. Not only is Kerry the worse protectionist of the two, but he's also the less-appealing candidate on defense, and the less personable. Imagine that!

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2004-09-03 06:52pm

Master of Ossus wrote:DAMN. That's a HUGE surprise, given Kerry's pitiful bounce following the DNC, the fact that Kerry et. al were actively campaigning during the RNC, and the fact that the electorate is so completely polarized that there's hardly anyone left to join one side or the other.

"Actively campaigning" eh? I suppose you could call the Kerry campaign an active one if the standard of "active" is that of tree-sloths...

Col. Crackpot · Post by **Col. Crackpot** » 2004-09-03 06:55pm

Patrick Degan wrote: "Actively campaigning" eh? I suppose you could call the Kerry campaign an active one if the standard of "active" is that of tree-sloths...

agreed. The sheer incompetence of his campaign doesn't speak well for a potential Kerry administration. Fuck it i'm voting Fuzzy.

jegs2 · Post by **jegs2** » 2004-09-03 07:33pm

IMO, Kerry's strong point will come during the debates. He is well-spoken, while President Bush is not.

Col. Crackpot · Post by **Col. Crackpot** » 2004-09-03 07:37pm

jegs2 wrote:IMO, Kerry's strong point will come during the debates. He is well-spoken, while President Bush is not.

so was Al Gore.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-03 07:52pm

Patrick Degan wrote:
Master of Ossus wrote:DAMN. That's a HUGE surprise, given Kerry's pitiful bounce following the DNC, the fact that Kerry et. al were actively campaigning during the RNC, and the fact that the electorate is so completely polarized that there's hardly anyone left to join one side or the other.
"Actively campaigning" eh? I suppose you could call the Kerry campaign an active one if the standard of "active" is that of tree-sloths...

Since he was still holding rallies, advertising, and working fund-raisers during the RNC, I do consider that active campaigning.

Edit: He also added a few events to his schedule at the last minute.

However, you are correct in that his campaign has never, ever seemed all that active.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-03 07:58pm

Damn, that's just plain stunning. Lasting or not it's just stunning.

Kerry is in a very, very deep hole. Partly of his own making, but it seems the Big Bush Machine is still going strong. Bush can be damn charming when he's actually comfortable and it looks like the PR blitz really worked.

It won't all last but I think Bush, or at least the RNC, won over more than a few lasting converts. The Kerry camp has drawn a lot on the anybody but Bush crowd and doesn't have much appeal. Bush does when he's not screwing up and if the next few months go well for him (ie no more scandals) I think he just might win.

jegs2 wrote:IMO, Kerry's strong point will come during the debates. He is well-spoken, while President Bush is not.

He's a good lecturer, that's not the same thing as a good "debator" since the whole presidential debates are massive style over substance display. Of course it would help if Kerry had some substance; vague promises really won't cut it.

Bush is both charming and has a record and plan to run on. Neither are great but as we've seen he can spin both easily.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-09-03 08:49pm

You forget that televised political debates are essentially style-over-substance affairs, and Bush has a huge advantage over Kerry in that area. Kerry I've noticed can often appear to be somewhat sour when speaking in public, whereas as Bush is at least affable most of the time.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2004-09-03 09:00pm

has a record and plan to run on

Are you fucking kidding me? What "record" is that? Fucking over the entire world?

57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism

That's a pretty damning indictment of the intelligence of the American population.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-03 09:38pm

HemlockGrey wrote:
has a record and plan to run on
Are you fucking kidding me? What "record" is that? Fucking over the entire world?

No one said it's a good plan. But let's face it, he has a plan and that's more than Kerry's demonstrated.

Axis Kast · Post by **Axis Kast** » 2004-09-03 09:39pm

Ever heard of "the devil you know," Hemlock? A lot of voters will cast a ballot for Bush on the basis that they can at least anticipate where he's coming from in a second term, rather than being surprised by John Kerry's implementation of policies they'll never have heard of until they become fact.

As for defense, given Kerry's recent statements about what he plans to do with the armed forces if elected, I'll stick with Bush, thank you. Rumsfeld or no.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-09-03 09:58pm

I'm skeptical. This is such a huge bounce from what was literally a 'Oh, you're not a Republican already? FUCK OFF!' convention, I have trouble buying it's eleven points up. Maybe it's because I don't trust media-conducted polls(Which is a better headline? BUSH GAINS MASSIVE LEAD! or BUSH AND KERRY POLLS REALLY KIND OF THE SAME?), maybe it's just wishful thinking. Any other polls confirming this?

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-03 10:06pm

SirNitram wrote:I'm skeptical. This is such a huge bounce from what was literally a 'Oh, you're not a Republican already? FUCK OFF!' convention, I have trouble buying it's eleven points up.

Frankly, considering your stances I think your read of the convention is way off. Sure it was the standard Party Circle Jerk but frankly, there wasn't nearly as much to turn people off as you imagine. If anything the Republicans might well have picked up a fair number of fence sitters; through name connection if nothing else.

SirNitram wrote: Maybe it's because I don't trust media-conducted polls(Which is a better headline? BUSH GAINS MASSIVE LEAD! or BUSH AND KERRY POLLS REALLY KIND OF THE SAME?), maybe it's just wishful thinking.

While I'm not sure the results are entirely objective, I think you're engaging in wishful thinking if you think it's all made up. Time isn't known for hysterics, right-wing politics, or under handed reporting.

SirNitram wrote: Any other polls confirming this?

Not yet, but I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow, Monday at the latest.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-09-03 10:10pm

Stormbringer wrote:
SirNitram wrote: Maybe it's because I don't trust media-conducted polls(Which is a better headline? BUSH GAINS MASSIVE LEAD! or BUSH AND KERRY POLLS REALLY KIND OF THE SAME?), maybe it's just wishful thinking.
While I'm not sure the results are entirely objective, I think you're engaging in wishful thinking if you think it's all made up. Time isn't known for hysterics, right-wing politics, or under handed reporting.

Quite, which is why I added it's possibly just wishful thinking. We'll see in a few days.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-03 10:24pm

SirNitram wrote:
Stormbringer wrote:
SirNitram wrote: Maybe it's because I don't trust media-conducted polls(Which is a better headline? BUSH GAINS MASSIVE LEAD! or BUSH AND KERRY POLLS REALLY KIND OF THE SAME?), maybe it's just wishful thinking.
While I'm not sure the results are entirely objective, I think you're engaging in wishful thinking if you think it's all made up. Time isn't known for hysterics, right-wing politics, or under handed reporting.
Quite, which is why I added it's possibly just wishful thinking. We'll see in a few days.

Just noted this on the website:

Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.

It's looking pretty damn genuine.

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