STGOD 4 OOC Thread (part 2)

[SirNitram]

Let's have some fun with verbatim quoting from the post in question
<snip>

He seems rather sure of his interpretation, doesn't he?

Perhaps, but it's still icing. The core of the matter remains, we opened the door to throw the key piece of Ouster evidence into suspicion.

If we completely toss burden of proof and Parsimony out the door, yes. Otherwise, it's childishness. Allow me to put it in real world terms.

'Sure, it could have been Osama. OR! It could be Saddam with plastic surgery! AHA! Now you have to go to war with Iraq. Hey! What are you doing going after Al-Qeada!'

[Pablo Sanchez]

And violated Parsimony. Whoops. We better ignore that, it calls into question the Accord's perfection!

Once again, please tell me how I have violated Parsimony, instead of merely saying that I have.

I'll use an analogy.

A man driving home from the bar one day shoots through an ebutment and off a cliff, and his vehicle fell some hundred feet, and because it was a Pinto it also burst into flames and was mostly burned away before it was discovered by police.

This is the whole of the evidence.

Explanation one is that he had too much to drink and accidentally drove off the cliff.
Explanation two is that some enemy of his cut his brake lines and rigged his car to burn to eradicate the evidence, and that he chose the night the man would be out drinking to make it look like an accident.

Explanation two fails the rule of parsimony or "Occam's Razor" because it introduces unnecessary variables to the equation. If the evidence supports both explanations equally, the one with the least number of unnecessary terms is most often correct.

[Hotfoot]

You're getting there pretty quick, intentions or no.

Yes, because instead of lashing out, I'm actually taking time to respond as calmly and clearly to each point as I can.

'It could be the Lying Darkness'(And more to the point, the ACTUAL post, which said it had to be the LD). Additional unproven unknowns. Parsimony requires we accept the one with the least of those: That the White Suns did it.

It could be any power with shapeshifters and an axe to grind. It could also be that the tape was forged, that evidence was inconclusive given the short time frame. The prime point is still that the key piece of Hajr evidence, which is uncorroborated, is called into question. Yeah, we used the Lying Darkness as an example, and one of the reasons for that was that the incident was still fresh in the memory of the Accord.

There's a massive difference between saying, "Alone, the tape is inconclusive", "the tape proves nothing", and "the tape incriminates the Lying Darkness."

We then compared the known behavior of the White Suns with the known behavior of the Lying Darkness. Given the evidence we had, the Lying Darkness seemed to have more motivation for such an action. They certainly had the means to take down a trade station (which, arguable, so did the White Suns, I will admit).

Above. A conspiracy always fails Parsimony without alot of evidence.

Once again, corroborating evidence of the tape is required to rule out the possibility of shapeshifters.

When the Veithan's demanded it must be the LD, they should have provided evidence instead of insisting it's so because they feel it should be.

They said that it seemed more likely that the LD were responsible, given the information they had at their disposal, and not a small part of that is based on the fact that alone, the tape is inconclusive.

[SirNitram]

You're getting there pretty quick, intentions or no.

Yes, because instead of lashing out, I'm actually taking time to respond as calmly and clearly to each point as I can.

While ignoring the bloody point.

'It could be the Lying Darkness'(And more to the point, the ACTUAL post, which said it had to be the LD). Additional unproven unknowns. Parsimony requires we accept the one with the least of those: That the White Suns did it.

It could be any power with shapeshifters and an axe to grind. It could also be that the tape was forged, that evidence was inconclusive given the short time frame. The prime point is still that the key piece of Hajr evidence, which is uncorroborated, is called into question. Yeah, we used the Lying Darkness as an example, and one of the reasons for that was that the incident was still fresh in the memory of the Accord.

You aren't getting it. This is a conspiracy. For it to be even remotely valid, you must have evidence for it. THERE ISN'T. No one says 'Well it could be a conspiracy' in regards to JFK's assassination and gets taken seriously, even though it's the exact same as this.

There's a massive difference between saying, "Alone, the tape is inconclusive", "the tape proves nothing", and "the tape incriminates the Lying Darkness."

We then compared the known behavior of the White Suns with the known behavior of the Lying Darkness. Given the evidence we had, the Lying Darkness seemed to have more motivation for such an action. They certainly had the means to take down a trade station (which, arguable, so did the White Suns, I will admit).

So the people who kill off anyone coming near them aren't capable of killing people? That's crazy.

Above. A conspiracy always fails Parsimony without alot of evidence.

Once again, corroborating evidence of the tape is required to rule out the possibility of shapeshifters.

....

Is this STGOD full of people with no grounding in even the vestiges of logic that pervade politics? IT'S CALLED BURDEN OF PROOF. Yes, I am yelling now. Because that was the stupidest thing I've seen outside of our retards and trolls.

When the Veithan's demanded it must be the LD, they should have provided evidence instead of insisting it's so because they feel it should be.

They said that it seemed more likely that the LD were responsible, given the information they had at their disposal, and not a small part of that is based on the fact that alone, the tape is inconclusive.

No, it's not. Unless they produce evidence it was a shapeshifter, it remains a conspiracy that violates parsimony. This is remedial logic.

[Hotfoot]

If we completely toss burden of proof and Parsimony out the door, yes. Otherwise, it's childishness. Allow me to put it in real world terms.

'Sure, it could have been Osama. OR! It could be Saddam with plastic surgery! AHA! Now you have to go to war with Iraq. Hey! What are you doing going after Al-Qeada!'

Try again. This time, try this:

"We think it was Osama!"
"What evidence do you have?"
"A signed document!"
"But that could have been forged. For all we know, the Mob forged it to drive up gas prices."
"That's a silly theory! Of course it's authentic! Off to war we go!"

Thus, the argument that the document could be forged is conveniently side-stepped.

[SirNitram]

If we completely toss burden of proof and Parsimony out the door, yes. Otherwise, it's childishness. Allow me to put it in real world terms.

'Sure, it could have been Osama. OR! It could be Saddam with plastic surgery! AHA! Now you have to go to war with Iraq. Hey! What are you doing going after Al-Qeada!'

Try again. This time, try this:

"We think it was Osama!"
"What evidence do you have?"
"A signed document!"
"But that could have been forged. For all we know, the Mob forged it to drive up gas prices."
"That's a silly theory! Of course it's authentic! Off to war we go!"

Thus, the argument that the document could be forged is conveniently side-stepped.

This semantical bullshit to evade the burden of proof fallacy you are engaging in is frankly personally insulting. How stupid do you think I am, Hotfoot? Honestly?

[Thirdfain]

Let's look at the major shapeshifter/Sixtra powers in this STGOD:

1. Lying Darkness
2. Vampires
3. Ravenlock
4. Arcanists
5. White Suns

Ok, #1 is perfect for fitting the bill. Tehy could have pulled it off, and have reason to- but we have evidence, as strong as any other in this little game of doublespeak, that they didn't do it, from a source which has every reason to see the Ousters succeed.

2. Is an Ouster ally. Why would they want to cause us to blow all our resources? Requires a major conspiracy. Next.

3. Has limited capability, and has some history of terrorism, but no real motive. Next.

4. Has motive, but is gone, and once again the Hajr is known to be able to detect their work. Next.

5. Fits the bill. The circumstantial evidence fits, they have motive, and have a history of such actions.

Disco.

[Pablo Sanchez]

Thus, the argument that the document could be forged is conveniently side-stepped.

Parsimony, courtesy of M. Wong.

[Alyrium Denryle]

Problem is, the Hajr has not met their burden. And there are problems and inconsitencies with their data that cannot be ignored. The evidence is inconclusive either way,

[SirNitram]

Problem is, the Hajr has not met their burden. And there are problems and inconsitencies with their data that cannot be ignored. The evidence is inconclusive either way,

This sort of lying is getting pathetic. They have met the burden; they showed visual evidence. That you can say 'BUT IT COULD HAVE BEEN A CONSPIRACY!' does not make it invalid, as much as you would love that to be so.

[Alyrium Denryle]

In our day and age, it is easy to edit and forge video outright. Without the time to go over everything bit by bit, pixel by pixel, the veithans couldnt have gotten conclusive evidence.

The simple matter is, we cannot rely on video at our tech level.

[Rogue 9]

That slam was against Nashtar/Rogue 9.

Oh boo hoo. I've been suspicious of them ever since Hudson and Jormungandr. My nation's history and charter are predicated upon self-determination, something that such conquest flies in the face of, and here comes the Hajr, knocking over weaker worlds just because they can. What do you think I'm going to think of that?

I dunno, I'd have to actually see you seperate IC and OOC to have something to base it on.

Are you retarded? Let's review. The Hajr forces came out of nowhere, from beyond known space, eight months ago. They have since overtaken and occupied nearly a quarter of Known Space. No one in their right mind wouldn't be suspicious of someone who takes that much territory inside of eight months and whose initial moves were to overrun nations which were 1.) far weaker than they and 2.) against which they had no casus belli at all. The only metagaming here is people pretending not to see a problem with this for fear of being accused of metagaming.

As for this "conspiracies automatically fail parsimony," which is for the most part true, I'll admit, you neglect the fact that the Diaspora's theory, too, is a conspiracy theory, one implicating the White Suns instead of the Lying Darkness. They both fail parsimony. Given that, and given that the Lying Darkness has both been known to do this kind of thing and has a known motive to do so again, the Veithan theory is the more likely of the two.

So the people who kill off anyone coming near them aren't capable of killing people? That's crazy.

The same could be said of the Gladsheim. I don't see anybody invading them just for being isolationist. There's a difference between aggressive isolationism and outright belligerence/being the aggressor. The White Sun Confederation doesn't like intruders within their borders, and with excellent reason I might add, but it doesn't follow that they make a habit of intruding upon other nations' borders just to piss them off.

[SirNitram]

In our day and age, it is easy to edit and forge video outright. Without the time to go over everything bit by bit, pixel by pixel, the veithans couldnt have gotten conclusive evidence.

The simple matter is, we cannot rely on video at our tech level.

Despite the existance of video tampering and plastic surgery today, we do not discount visual identification. I see no reason why this would magically stop in the future when the only reason is 'BECAUSE I SAID SO'. Again. You must provide some evidence to support a conspiracy. This is remedial logic.

[Thirdfain]

hey have since overtaken and occupied nearly a quarter of Known Space.

Not NEARLY that much, but true enough. Fearing the Hajr is legitimate.

I'll admit, you neglect the fact that the Diaspora's theory, too, is a conspiracy theory, one implicating the White Suns instead of the Lying Darkness.

It is a conspiracy theory, backed up by evidence that could implicate the White Suns OR the Lying Darkness- and the Lying Darkness are eliminated as a choice by the word of the Vampires, who have every reason to tell the truth in their assistance to their Ouster allies.

[Thirdfain]

going to class,back in an hour or so.

[SirNitram]

That slam was against Nashtar/Rogue 9.

Oh boo hoo. I've been suspicious of them ever since Hudson and Jormungandr. My nation's history and charter are predicated upon self-determination, something that such conquest flies in the face of, and here comes the Hajr, knocking over weaker worlds just because they can. What do you think I'm going to think of that?

I dunno, I'd have to actually see you seperate IC and OOC to have something to base it on.[/quote]
Are you retarded? Let's review. The Hajr forces came out of nowhere, from beyond known space, eight months ago. They have since overtaken and occupied nearly a quarter of Known Space. No one in their right mind wouldn't be suspicious of someone who takes that much territory inside of eight months and whose initial moves were to overrun nations which were 1.) far weaker than they and 2.) against which they had no casus belli at all. The only metagaming here is people pretending not to see a problem with this for fear of being accused of metagaming. [/quote]

'They overtook alot of territory, therefore they are automatically evil and capable of anything.' Of course, the logic falls apart when you yourself mention they used no casus belli in the past. Why kill millions of their own when they apparently don't need it?

As for this "conspiracies automatically fail parsimony," which is for the most part true, I'll admit, you neglect the fact that the Diaspora's theory, too, is a conspiracy theory, one implicating the White Suns instead of the Lying Darkness. They both fail parsimony. Given that, and given that the Lying Darkness has both been known to do this kind of thing and has a known motive to do so again, the Veithan theory is the more likely of the two.

My god, the stupid, it burns. You have no comprehension of Parsimony, it seems. There is no evidence against the LD. There is against the White Suns. There is stated evidence that discredits the idea of the LD. That you beleive this unsupported crap theory is proof you're metagaming for all you're worth!

So the people who kill off anyone coming near them aren't capable of killing people? That's crazy.

The same could be said of the Gladsheim. I don't see anybody invading them just for being isolationist. There's a difference between aggressive isolationism and outright belligerence/being the aggressor. The White Sun Confederation doesn't like intruders within their borders, and with excellent reason I might add, but it doesn't follow that they make a habit of intruding upon other nations' borders just to piss them off.

No one's invading just because they're isolationist you biblical retard. It's a point against them when someone tries to claim they have no motive to hurt the Hajr.

Of course, Nashtar has a motive. Maybe I should spend twenty days, write up a post with no proof, and finger the Republic instead. I wonder if the whiners here would leap to support it as quickly..?

[Rogue 9]

'They overtook alot of territory, therefore they are automatically evil and capable of anything.' Of course, the logic falls apart when you yourself mention they used no casus belli in the past. Why kill millions of their own when they apparently don't need it?

Please point to where I've stated in game that they killed their own. I already know which post you're going to quote, but note that I didn't actually say it. I left that open-ended for a reason.

Of course, Nashtar has a motive. Maybe I should spend twenty days, write up a post with no proof, and finger the Republic instead. I wonder if the whiners here would leap to support it as quickly..?

Motive, but not the means or the political will to pull it off. You wouldn't be able to do it effectively, because such an operation is simply beyond our means. We don't have shapeshifters or Sixtra.

[SirNitram]

'They overtook alot of territory, therefore they are automatically evil and capable of anything.' Of course, the logic falls apart when you yourself mention they used no casus belli in the past. Why kill millions of their own when they apparently don't need it?

Please point to where I've stated in game that they killed their own. I already know which post you're going to quote, but note that I didn't actually say it. I left that open-ended for a reason.

'I only implied it heavily and no one in my government hesitated for a moment on the idea. But I didn't say it so it's illegitimate.'

Please...

Of course, Nashtar has a motive. Maybe I should spend twenty days, write up a post with no proof, and finger the Republic instead. I wonder if the whiners here would leap to support it as quickly..?

Motive, but not the means or the political will to pull it off. You wouldn't be able to do it effectively, because such an operation is simply beyond our means. We don't have shapeshifters or Sixtra.

You do have plastic surgery and, given our tech level, probably holograms. These would allow one to mimic a Sixtra.

[Pablo Sanchez]

This is getting needlessly personal. I'm going to take a few hours' nap, and I would be very pleased if, when I return, you all have figured out that there is no way in hell anyone here will change their opinions about this matter. Take it easy.

[Hotfoot]

While ignoring the bloody point.

If I am ignoring you, please feel free to point it out, but I think I've tried to respond to your points as best I can.

You aren't getting it. This is a conspiracy. For it to be even remotely valid, you must have evidence for it. THERE ISN'T. No one says 'Well it could be a conspiracy' in regards to JFK's assassination and gets taken seriously, even though it's the exact same as this.

The conspiracy, as I said before, was icing. The true meat of it was that the tape alone (which it was), is inconclusive, due to the reality of the in-game universe.

So the people who kill off anyone coming near them aren't capable of killing people? That's crazy.

There's a bit of a jump between killing people who invade your sovereign space, and going out of your way to kill people outside of your space. The Lying Darkness have already shown their willingness to kill people far outside of their own space. The White Suns have not. In simple terms, there isn't a set precedent for this sort of thing in the White Suns as far as we can determine. Granted, that's not worth much at all by itself, but it still is there to be considered with the rest of the information.

....

Is this STGOD full of people with no grounding in even the vestiges of logic that pervade politics? IT'S CALLED BURDEN OF PROOF. Yes, I am yelling now. Because that was the stupidest thing I've seen outside of our retards and trolls.

Once again, the Veithans were called in to see if the Hajr proof was solid enough to justify a war. We reviewed the evidence, and given that the only solid piece of evidence was an uncorroborated recording which could have been forged or staged, we deemed the evidence not worth going to war. To put it bluntly, the Hajr were under a burden to provide proof the White Suns did it. They. Failed. Why? Because how can video evidence be perfect in a reality where shapeshifters exist? Remember all the hubbub surrounding that tape of Saddam, back before he was captured, and the video analysts going over it with a fine tooth comb to see if it was really Saddam or one of his body doubles?

No, it's not. Unless they produce evidence it was a shapeshifter, it remains a conspiracy that violates parsimony. This is remedial logic.

"Look! It's a Sixtra!"
"Are you sure? We've had several dealings with shapeshifters in the past."
"Yes, we're sure! Look! It's a Sixtra! On the tape! Really!"
"We see that the tape has a Sixtra on it, but without further supporting evidence, it's not enough to go to war on. Heck, with this evidence, we could make a case which incriminated these guys we encountered a while back. We know they're still around, and that they want to raise hell in Known Space. The evidence fits both stories pretty well as it is."
"Nah, we knew about those guys. We're so badass that they couldn't touch us."
"Okay, fine, but it still doesn't change the fact that the tape is inconclusive. I mean, even if it was a Sixtra, there's no link to the Government. It could be a rogue agent, another shapeshifter, or any number of things, the point is we don't know. You have failed to provide proof that the White Suns are responsible."
"You violate Parsimony!"
"What?"

[Rogue 9]

You do have plastic surgery and, given our tech level, probably holograms. These would allow one to mimic a Sixtra.

A crude imitation, one that if done with holograms would show up in a careful analysis of the video and if done with plastic surgery wouldn't be a precise imitation (unless Sixtra physiology is much closer to a human's than I'm picturing). Then you'd have to explain why I'd frame my own ally.

[SirNitram]

While ignoring the bloody point.

If I am ignoring you, please feel free to point it out, but I think I've tried to respond to your points as best I can.

Hotfoot, I don't give two shits if you respond to the points or not. What is happening here is you are casually tossing out the most basic levels of logic.. The ones even politics and the media use.. Because it doesn't suit you to in the game. You are just making up excuses now.

You aren't getting it. This is a conspiracy. For it to be even remotely valid, you must have evidence for it. THERE ISN'T. No one says 'Well it could be a conspiracy' in regards to JFK's assassination and gets taken seriously, even though it's the exact same as this.

The conspiracy, as I said before, was icing. The true meat of it was that the tape alone (which it was), is inconclusive, due to the reality of the in-game universe.

I repeat. There is no evidence it was a shapeshifter. Until there is evidence it was a shapeshifter, this violates parsimony. Why? It introduces additional unproven unknowns. This is not a personal attack, this is the most basic tenet of logic. A Creationist was able to come up with this tenet of logic.

So the people who kill off anyone coming near them aren't capable of killing people? That's crazy.

There's a bit of a jump between killing people who invade your sovereign space, and going out of your way to kill people outside of your space. The Lying Darkness have already shown their willingness to kill people far outside of their own space. The White Suns have not. In simple terms, there isn't a set precedent for this sort of thing in the White Suns as far as we can determine. Granted, that's not worth much at all by itself, but it still is there to be considered with the rest of the information.

There is no evidence the Lying Darkness was anywhere in the region. There's no evidence the Lying Darkness are in the quadrant. There is the testimony of a being who could, as far as anyone ICly knows, detect an LD, that they aren't involved.

There is still no evidence it was anyone but the White Suns.

....

Is this STGOD full of people with no grounding in even the vestiges of logic that pervade politics? IT'S CALLED BURDEN OF PROOF. Yes, I am yelling now. Because that was the stupidest thing I've seen outside of our retards and trolls.

Once again, the Veithans were called in to see if the Hajr proof was solid enough to justify a war. We reviewed the evidence, and given that the only solid piece of evidence was an uncorroborated recording which could have been forged or staged, we deemed the evidence not worth going to war. To put it bluntly, the Hajr were under a burden to provide proof the White Suns did it. They. Failed. Why? Because how can video evidence be perfect in a reality where shapeshifters exist? Remember all the hubbub surrounding that tape of Saddam, back before he was captured, and the video analysts going over it with a fine tooth comb to see if it was really Saddam or one of his body doubles?

This is absolutely ridiculous. There is no evidence for anything but the White Suns being involved. All we have is hand waving and insisting that we take a conspiracy over the simplest explanation.

No, it's not. Unless they produce evidence it was a shapeshifter, it remains a conspiracy that violates parsimony. This is remedial logic.

"Look! It's a Sixtra!"
"Are you sure? We've had several dealings with shapeshifters in the past."
"Yes, we're sure! Look! It's a Sixtra! On the tape! Really!"
"We see that the tape has a Sixtra on it, but without further supporting evidence, it's not enough to go to war on. Heck, with this evidence, we could make a case which incriminated these guys we encountered a while back. We know they're still around, and that they want to raise hell in Known Space. The evidence fits both stories pretty well as it is."
"Nah, we knew about those guys. We're so badass that they couldn't touch us."
"Okay, fine, but it still doesn't change the fact that the tape is inconclusive. I mean, even if it was a Sixtra, there's no link to the Government. It could be a rogue agent, another shapeshifter, or any number of things, the point is we don't know. You have failed to provide proof that the White Suns are responsible."
"You violate Parsimony!"
"What?"

"It's simple. You claim we must throw out all visual evidence because there is a vanishing possibility of a shapechanger. You show no evidence it would be a shapechanger, ergo you have violated parsimony and failed to prove it."

Simple enough for you?

[SirNitram]

You do have plastic surgery and, given our tech level, probably holograms. These would allow one to mimic a Sixtra.

A crude imitation, one that if done with holograms would show up in a careful analysis of the video and if done with plastic surgery wouldn't be a precise imitation (unless Sixtra physiology is much closer to a human's than I'm picturing). Then you'd have to explain why I'd frame my own ally.

Casus belli against the Hajr that will motivate all your allies into a massive war with them. Given your belilgerence against the Hajr, this is not an impossible situation. Given this is precisely what's about to happen, my theory has actual support, as opposed to 'Boogeymen from beyond the Sphere did it'.

[Rogue 9]

Hotfoot, I don't give two shits if you respond to the points or not. What is happening here is you are casually tossing out the most basic levels of logic.. The ones even politics and the media use.. Because it doesn't suit you to in the game.

And it didn't suit Thirdfain in game to obey the laws of orbital mechanics, far more immutable than rules of logic, when he wanted to drop a geosynchronous station straight down onto a moving target that it was directly above. That flew. Now suddenly, when there is a risk of the Alliance not being weakened if this stands, here you are pissing and moaning about metagaming. Hmmmmmm...

There is the testimony of a being who could, as far as anyone ICly knows, detect an LD, that they aren't involved.

That claim doesn't stand up to parsimony either, if you really want to play that way.

[SirNitram]

Hotfoot, I don't give two shits if you respond to the points or not. What is happening here is you are casually tossing out the most basic levels of logic.. The ones even politics and the media use.. Because it doesn't suit you to in the game.

And it didn't suit Thirdfain in game to obey the laws of orbital mechanics, far more immutable than rules of logic, when he wanted to drop a geosynchronous station straight down onto a moving target that it was directly above. That flew. Now suddenly, when there is a risk of the Alliance not being weakened if this stands, here you are pissing and moaning about metagaming. Hmmmmmm...

'Oh no! SOmeone did some cinematic physics in a game that always had cinematic physics! THIS IS JUST LIKE MY METAGAMING!'

There is the testimony of a being who could, as far as anyone ICly knows, detect an LD, that they aren't involved.

That claim doesn't stand up to parsimony either, if you really want to play that way.

If you can discredit the Vampires claim that they can detect the Lying Darkness.. You are correct.

If you cannot, you lose, sir. Good day, sir.[/Wonka]