Electoral Vote Predictor

[Durandal]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The most current results were calculated for data from the week of the RNC, before Bush's acceptance speech (using the Zogby polls). That data predicts Kerry at 264 and Bush at 222 if the election were held today.

The final projected map (which I assume uses some sort of linear model for the changes in the number of votes over time) predicts Kerry winning with 265 votes and Bush with 232.

What's also interesting is how the predictor has changed since May 24th. It seems that Kerry has enjoyed much more time above the line than Bush, who's been stuck below it for the most of the predicted periods.

But apparently, post-convention, there's been a sharp decline in the predicted electoral votes for Bush if the election were held today (well, sort of today).

What's nice is that they have an RSS feed.

[Darth Garden Gnome]

All good news, but I find myself having a hard time putting too much stock into it.

[Col. Crackpot]

What i'd love more than anything to see is for Kerry to win the electoral vote and badly lose the popular vote just to watch the pandemonium and hypocrisy that would enusue.

[Bugsby]

A hard time putting too much stock in it? It's all Zogby polls, which means good polls. The race is tight. Im surprised to see states like NY and NJ now only at "weak Kerry," but everything else looks about right. Most of the job of the election is capturing the big states, and Kerry is all over that.

[Phil Skayhan]

The current poll data is fine but the projection map is sketchy, just as the author says it is. For example, look at Oklahoma's regression. Do you really believe Kerry can take Ok? However, I believe the NJ is more in play than generally thought.

[frigidmagi]

Actually yes he could take it, but he won't put the effort into it. There is a feeling amoung the popualtion that we are being ignored and taken for granted. That our concerns don't count because the Republicians think they have us in the bag without question.

[Durandal]

The current poll data is fine but the projection map is sketchy, just as the author says it is. For example, look at Oklahoma's regression. Do you really believe Kerry can take Ok? However, I believe the NJ is more in play than generally thought.

Very true. Such is the way with statistical models based on 4 data points.

However, the current map is at least somewhat encouraging, even if everyone here is cynical about Kerry's campaign (myself included). But Kerry has very few states where he's a shoe-in, whereas Bush has a shitload. And there are more than a few states which are exactly tied. I'd be willing to bet that whoever wins Pennsylvania gets the presidency.

[Marksist]

I was reading a few nights ago that Rasmussen (the polling company that Time uses) fucked up the post-RNC poll numbers, and that Bush really didn't have a 10 point bounce after his convention. It said that he had more like a 3-4 point bounce. So hopefully if Kerry can put himself on the offensive, and own Bush in the debates, he can win.

Also I agree with Crackpot that it would be nice to see Kerry win Electoral College and lose popular vote. Just to see all the right-wing politician and talking heads be total jizz bag hypocrits.

Rediculously Off-Topic: Crackpot's avatar is awesome, Chuck Mangione is the greatest.

[Col. Crackpot]

Also I agree with Crackpot that it would be nice to see Kerry win Electoral College and lose popular vote. Just to see all the right-wing politician and talking heads be total jizz bag hypocrits.

Rediculously Off-Topic: Crackpot's avatar is awesome, Chuck Mangione is the greatest.

The lesties would come off looking like the biggest 'jizzheads' considering that they condemned Bush for stealing the office. To see ythem put in the same position would be irony so delicious i'd eat it with a spoon. Granted the right wing whackos would make a stink too, and that would be amusing as well.

Chuck pwn5 j00z!

[Bugsby]

cant help but notice that Florida is a dead tie yet again. Repeat, anyone?

[Stormbringer]

cant help but notice that Florida is a dead tie yet again. Repeat, anyone?

Now, I think god is taking pre-emptive vegeance for them voting for Ralph Nader.

[Stormbringer]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The most current results were calculated for data from the week of the RNC, before Bush's acceptance speech (using the Zogby polls). That data predicts Kerry at 264 and Bush at 222 if the election were held today.

Hmm, the predictions I've seen have put Bush well ahead in electoral votes. He apparently tipped a number of critical swing states with the rest being damn near even.

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The most current results were calculated for data from the week of the RNC, before Bush's acceptance speech (using the Zogby polls). That data predicts Kerry at 264 and Bush at 222 if the election were held today.

Hmm, the predictions I've seen have put Bush well ahead in electoral votes. He apparently tipped a number of critical swing states with the rest being damn near even.

Don't they have two polls, for registered voters and likely voters? Perhaps the poll they used for the electoral college results was from the one not used as often by other sources.

[Stormbringer]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The most current results were calculated for data from the week of the RNC, before Bush's acceptance speech (using the Zogby polls). That data predicts Kerry at 264 and Bush at 222 if the election were held today.

Hmm, the predictions I've seen have put Bush well ahead in electoral votes. He apparently tipped a number of critical swing states with the rest being damn near even.

Don't they have two polls, for registered voters and likely voters? Perhaps the poll they used for the electoral college results was from the one not used as often by other sources.

No, it's as a result of the post convention bounce. But yeah, they might be using different data.

[Durandal]

What's interesting is that a best case scenario for Kerry gives him a very solid lead (307 to 231). The best post-convention case for Bush still puts him behind Kerry by about 36 to 40 votes, depending on how Maine and Nebraska (and possibly Colorado) divide up their electoral votes.

Still, Kerry had better do something. The RNC shrunk his lead by a significant margin, and Bush took a beating this summer (in June, he was beating Kerry 285-253), probably due to Iraq. Though things over there are starting to heat up again, so Kerry had better do something with it. If he can turn Iraq and Bush's ineffectiveness in the War on Terror into a central issue for this campaign, he could very well win.

[Phil Skayhan]

I check in on the Gallups Interactive Map once a week. Up until two weeks ago, Kerry had the electoral lead. But there isn't enough data to make a call yet.

Believe me when I tell you that the first debate will decide the outcome. I also think that Bush has the advantage over Kerry there and not for anything substanitive. The polls taken after that will give a much more accurate read of which way the election will go.

[CelesKnight]

I wouldn't put too much faith in his method until much, much later in the game. He currently has Kerry winning Oklahoma , a state that Kerry has been consistently 20+ points behind in. Source Kerry is going to need an awful big landslide to be ok with the OK voters.

Bush was weak in AZ in August, but he is currently up 16%. Source I believe that Bush is also way ahead in Colorado, but I can't find the source anymore. More importantly, Kerry decided to pull advertising from those states, so he's probably not going to improve much. Source After looking at other polling sites, I would say that TN seems to be more of a toss up than a Kerry state. With those adjustments, the picture looks quite a bit dimmer for Kerry.

A quick summary of some other predictions is here.

While it's interesting Gallup is noting that the margin between Kerry and Bush is within the typical fluctuations that one would expect between now and Nov 2.

[Phil Skayhan]

And meanwhile New Jersey quietly slips into the red.......

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I know I called this in my prediction map but even so...Holy Shit!

[RedImperator]

And meanwhile New Jersey quietly slips into the red.......

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I know I called this in my prediction map but even so...Holy Shit!

It feels like the ground is slowly sliding out from under Kerry's feet.

[Xenophobe3691]

It feels like the ground is slowly sliding out from under Kerry's feet.

Of course. This man's got enough initiative to make Garfield look like an Eagle Scout. I live in friggin Florida and I'm starting to forget just what the hell he stands for. If he doesn't grow some balls, damn soon, and start campaigning, he's screwed. Only a month left, Kerry, get your ass in gear!

[Master of Ossus]

It feels like the ground is slowly sliding out from under Kerry's feet.

Slowly? If he doesn't start doing stuff immediately he'll be fucked, come November. He hasn't dont SHIT since the DNC ended. He's got to get going on his campaign if he's losing states like NJ and PA.

[Coyote]

I'm seriously thinking that, despite all the hullaballoo about how important this election is and all that yadda yadda, that I just cannot bring myself to vote for anyone at all this time around. I am surprised at myself, but it is true... Neither of these guys represents what I want. And voting for one moron just to stick it to the other moron is a pointless gesture...

I actually think I'll sit this one out.

[Durandal]

A lot less white states now. I wonder how much of an effect all this forged memos crap has had.

[Talon Karrde]

And meanwhile New Jersey quietly slips into the red.......

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I know I called this in my prediction map but even so...Holy Shit!

I wonder if this has anything to do with McGreevy? Perhaps the citizens of Jersey are fed up.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Do you hear that, Kerry? That's the sound of inevitability...