Possible DPRK nuclear test.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2004-09-12 12:04am

SEOUL (Reuters) - A huge explosion rocked an area in North Korea near the border with China three days ago and appeared to be much bigger than a train blast that killed 170 people in April, Yonhap news agency reported on Sunday.

"There were rumors that the explosion was much bigger than the one at Ryongchon train station and the United States is showing a big interest as the blast was seen from satellites," Yonhap quoted an unnamed source in Beijing as saying.

The cause had yet to be determined but the source said Washington was not ruling out the possibility that the blast may be linked to a nuclear test.

Yonhap reported that a mushroom cloud up to 2.5 miles in diameter was spotted after the blast in remote Yanggang province in the country's far northeast.

The New York Times reported in its Sunday editions that the Bush administration had received recent intelligence reports that some experts believe could indicate North Korea is preparing to conduct its first nuclear weapons test explosion.

South Korean government officials were not immediately available for comment.

Thursday was the 56th anniversary of North Korea's founding. The reclusive communist state often stages extravaganzas and big events to mark important anniversaries.

Train cars exploded at the Ryongchon railway station on April 22, killing 170 and wounding an estimated 1,300. The blast was believed to have been caused by a train loaded with oil and chemicals hitting a power line.

EDIT: Both the AP and BBC are picking up on this.

Shinova · Post by **Shinova** » 2004-09-12 12:10am

2.5 miles in diameter is pretty huge methinks.

Seggybop · Post by **Seggybop** » 2004-09-12 12:19am

I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.

StarshipTitanic · Post by **StarshipTitanic** » 2004-09-12 12:22am

Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.

They managed to buy enough radioactive material through drug and weapons money. Everyone can find out how to cause a nuclear reaction off the Internet. Why not support them for managing to live despite their stupid dictator?

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-09-12 12:23am

Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.

What, doing something seven other countries have already done, and that at least a dozen more could do in a matter of months or years if they chose, at a cost of billions of dollars while their people eat treebark? That accomplishment?

Seggybop · Post by **Seggybop** » 2004-09-12 12:33am

RedImperator wrote:
Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.
What, doing something seven other countries have already done, and that at least a dozen more could do in a matter of months or years if they chose, at a cost of billions of dollars while their people eat treebark? That accomplishment?

Right. That one. For a psychotic, impoverished place like that to pull it off is surprising to me. I guess I give them way too much credit.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2004-09-12 12:38am

RedImperator wrote:
Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.
What, doing something seven other countries have already done, and that at least a dozen more could do in a matter of months or years if they chose, at a cost of billions of dollars while their people eat treebark? That accomplishment?

* cough ninecountries cough*

* cough southafrica cough*
* cough israel cough*

StarshipTitanic · Post by **StarshipTitanic** » 2004-09-12 12:42am

Seggybop wrote:
RedImperator wrote:
Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.
What, doing something seven other countries have already done, and that at least a dozen more could do in a matter of months or years if they chose, at a cost of billions of dollars while their people eat treebark? That accomplishment?
Right. That one. For a psychotic, impoverished place like that to pull it off is surprising to me. I guess I give them way too much credit.

What, connect to the Internet and download bomb blueprints while selling weapons on the black market?

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2004-09-12 12:44am

StarshipTitanic wrote:What, connect to the Internet and download bomb blueprints while selling weapons on the black market?

Don't be stupid. Nuclear development is considerably more difficult than simply downloading "bomb blueprints" from the Internet. Said "blueprints" are probably so vague as to be meaningless anyways.

StarshipTitanic · Post by **StarshipTitanic** » 2004-09-12 12:58am

phongn wrote:
StarshipTitanic wrote:What, connect to the Internet and download bomb blueprints while selling weapons on the black market?
Don't be stupid. Nuclear development is considerably more difficult than simply downloading "bomb blueprints" from the Internet. Said "blueprints" are probably so vague as to be meaningless anyways.

Excuse my hyperbole. The DPRK have been working on their program for twenty years, and they might have just managed their first detonation. I don't regard this as any sort of achievement.

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2004-09-12 01:17am

StarshipTitanic wrote:What, connect to the Internet and download bomb blueprints while selling weapons on the black market?

If only it were that easy.

Iranian Nuclear Tech on the phone to the Mullahs: "Exalted Leaders, praise be to Allah, Lord of Blessings! My friend Steve is sending us plans for a nuclear bomb!"
Mullah: "Praise be to Allah!"
Nuclear Tech: "...shit!"
Mullah: "What?"
Nuclear Tech: "This is a POP3 account and my boy Ahmed sent me a fucking movie file!"
Mullah: "What does that mean?"
Nuclear Tech: "I got to download this shit before I can get to our nuclear plans! That fucking jack-off! Our nuclear program will be set back weeks!"

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2004-09-12 07:23am

Any reports come through about anything in that cloud setting off radiation monitors? That will settle the issue.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2004-09-12 10:32am

Patrick Degan wrote:Any reports come through about anything in that cloud setting off radiation monitors? That will settle the issue.

No, not yet.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2004-09-12 11:39am

According to CNN, a White House representative has denied that it's nuclear. Take that for what it's worth.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-09-12 12:11pm

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
RedImperator wrote:
Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.
What, doing something seven other countries have already done, and that at least a dozen more could do in a matter of months or years if they chose, at a cost of billions of dollars while their people eat treebark? That accomplishment?
* cough ninecountries cough*

* cough southafrica cough*
* cough israel cough*

Whoops. I included Israel but miscounted (I might have counted India and Pakistan as 1). South Africa I just forgot.

Fire Fly · Post by **Fire Fly** » 2004-09-12 12:18pm

Seggybop wrote:I was hoping they would do it live on CNN. Oh well. At least it wasn't subsurface. But I want pictures!
Regardless, (/cheer) for the North Koreans. They might be a threat to humanity, but their accomplishment deserves massive respect.

I think fear is the more correct answer, instead of respect. Would you be cheering Iran if they suddenly developed a working nuclear weapon? Libya? Algeria? Any of the dozen or so other nations who are vehemetly anti-American? I think not.

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2004-09-12 12:28pm

I think the latest theory is that the blast was caused by deteriorating old ammunition, set of a few thousand tons of that and you will get something very similar to kt-nuke.

The lack or presence of radioactive fallout will tell the tale even if little Kim won't.

Seggybop · Post by **Seggybop** » 2004-09-12 12:40pm

The Aliens wrote:According to CNN, a White House representative has denied that it's nuclear. Take that for what it's worth.

They also tried to claim it was caused by a forest fire.
...

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-12 12:47pm

If it was a nuke test, though, then why haven't the North Koreans come forward to do their little song and dance, yet?

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2004-09-12 12:51pm

The question is, since when to forest fires cause a 4km mushroom cloud? There aren't alot of things that do that and forest fires don't explode.

Sokar · Post by **Sokar** » 2004-09-12 01:26pm

I think its possible that they had a fizzle....the bomb never quite reached critical mass as to cause the full on blast....but it was more than enough to look like a nuke. Clancy used this idea in his "Sum of all Fears" book, not a good source I know, but it prompted me to a bit of reading on it and its a real concept. The engineering tolerances, particularly for the explosives that cause implosion are extremely tight, minor flaws will cause the reaction to escape containment before the chain reaction is in full swing. You end up with a sort of nuclear blast, but one dramatically weaker than the pile size should have caused.

Its just a thought, but we'll see if any of the SK or Army NBC outfits detect any rads.

Elheru Aran · Post by **Elheru Aran** » 2004-09-12 01:40pm

Master of Ossus wrote:If it was a nuke test, though, then why haven't the North Koreans come forward to do their little song and dance, yet?

I wouldn't blame them for trying to keep it under wraps... what with being an "Axis of Evil" nation, wouldn't you be wanting to keep something like this on the hush so that dear ol' Dubya doesn't go all homicidal and declare North Korea the latest hiding place of Osama (or whatever half-assed reason)?

Plus, if it IS nuclear, it is certainly a WMD to some extent-- thus proving North Korea's nuclear program exists, and giving the US a valid reason (more or less) to invade, in order to preven Kim Junior from using it on their peaceful, car-exporting allies the South Koreans.

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2004-09-12 02:48pm

Elheru Aran wrote:I wouldn't blame them for trying to keep it under wraps... what with being an "Axis of Evil" nation, wouldn't you be wanting to keep something like this on the hush so that dear ol' Dubya doesn't go all homicidal and declare North Korea the latest hiding place of Osama (or whatever half-assed reason)?

Plus, if it IS nuclear, it is certainly a WMD to some extent-- thus proving North Korea's nuclear program exists, and giving the US a valid reason (more or less) to invade, in order to preven Kim Junior from using it on their peaceful, car-exporting allies the South Koreans.

I'd think he'd want to do the exact opposite. If he successfully detonated a nuclear weapon, he'd want to get the news out as much as possible so that he's got a better bargaining position. After all, nuclear devices are more useful as leverage than as actual weapons, especially when you've only got a few of them. Sort of saying "Mess with me and Tokyo gets it, which will ruin the global economy and ruin your shit, along with killing millions of Japanese".

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 2004-09-12 03:02pm

Well, I was talking to someone about this, and he brought up the idea of it being an accident with a nuke of some kind, but I don't think that would fit either, since if I was NK i would claim it was a successful nuclear test.

My guess is it was a nuke, NK is just letting everyone else stew for a while before they reveal exactly what it was, as a sign of "good faith" or similar. I think for the moment they're just getting all the ifnormation they can and leaving everyone to concoct their own stories.

Could it have been a meteorite?

salm · Post by **salm** » 2004-09-12 03:16pm

couldn´t we meassure an increase of whatever stuff is released when a nuke is exploded in the air pretty quickly? i mean even outsinde of NK?